NFL Week 7 is complete.
Fewer injuries? Ehh, not really. More yellow penalty flags.
And the “return” of No. 1 WR A.J. Brown. Better times will come. Trust me.
Also, I will be doing another AMA this Friday on the Reddit Fantasy Football Page (early evening). Tell me why I’m crazy for still wanting to buy A.J. Brown.
Trust the process.
But let’s get to business.
- Waiver wire targets.
- Trades to make.
- Start/sit decisions.
Let my “Beyond the Waiver Wire” series be your compass, guiding you to Week 8 fantasy football success.
No fluff (or less fluff). Trust me, I am trying my best. Advanced metrics/data are provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS).
LFG.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Fantasy Football Beyond the Waiver Wire: Week 8
New England Patriots
Buy A.J. Brown
Drake Maye was 24-of-31 for 321 yards and two touchdowns with one interception (117.8; 25-of-33 for 324 yards on the true line), sacked twice for 11 and used on 4 carries for 26 yards and a rushing touchdown. That is 10.4 yards per attempt on a 77.4% completion rate (7.3 and 56.3% in Week 6); he was 12-of-15 for 169 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in the first half, and 12-of-16 for 152 yards and a touchdown in the second, a half that included a spike. Next Gen Stats had him pressured on 15 of 35 dropbacks (42.9%) and 11-of-12 for 151 yards and a touchdown against pressure.
Rhamondre Stevenson had 11 of the backs’ 20 opportunities (55.0%; 42.4% in Week 6), TreyVeon Henderson 5 (25.0%), and Corey Kiner 4 (20.0%; 33.3%).
Stevenson ran 6 times for 22 yards and caught 5 of 5 for 93 yards and a touchdown; Kiner had no carry after Q2 5:04. The backs’ snaps were Stevenson 37 of 54 (69%; 60% in Week 6), Henderson 13 (24%; 24%) and Kiner 6 (11%; 18%).
Stevenson’s snap share rose 9 points, his opportunity share rose 12.6 points to 55.0%, and the 5-for-5 receiving line (5 of the backs’ 7 targets) is the role he lacked in Week 6, but 1.8 per carry outside one run, rushing yards over expected of −12, and a 48-yarder at the end of the first half behind 47% of his yards say the line was bigger than the usage.
Demario Douglas caught 3 of 4 targets for 23 yards (12.9% official/12.1% adjusted target share, from 25.0%). Snap share: 35 of 54 (65%), from 40 of 68 (59%) in Week 6. (72.7% route participation, compared to 81% from Week 6)
A.J. Brown caught just 3 of 6 targets for 48 yards (19.4% official/18.2% adjusted, from 31.3%). Snap share: 49 of 54 (91%), from 52 of 68 (76%) in Week 6.
The playing time, the routes (31, a 93.9% route participation), and the downfield role are all here (a 23.7-yard average depth of target and 53.1% of the team’s air yards), but the targets fell to 6, and a 3-for-6 line is not the bounce-back AJB managers hoped for in a juicy matchup versus the Bears. I’d also like to bring up that had it not been interfered with on that long ball down the right side line, fantasy managers wouldn’t be so upset with Brown’s prime-time final box score. Should have been a DPI.
Now I’ll admit it hasn’t been all great for Brown as he continues to get back from his high ankle sprain suffered in Week 1. Again, this is a 4-6 week injury, so him knocking off some rust should have been somewhat expected. I also thought watching Thursday night’s game, he actually looked worse than in Week 6 versus the Jets. Possible that the quick turnaround to playing four days later wasn’t the best for Brown. After re-watching all his routes from both games, it confirmed my initial read that he looked better versus the Jets than the Bears. I think with 10 days’ rest, we will see the best form of Brown in another great matchup versus Miami.
I also saw that the Bears played a lot of safety over-the-top coverage versus the Patriots and Brown, making it tougher for them to connect downfield. Admittedly, I’d like him to look better battling for these downfield targets, but I digress.
He’s still so clearly the alpha in this passing game, and he is attached to one of the best young QBs in the league. Don’t jump ship now. Take advantage.
Hunter Henry caught 7 of 7 for 71 yards (22.6% official/21.2% adjusted, from 15.6%). Snap share: 41 of 54 (76%), the same as 52 of 68 (76%). Henry owned the team’s largest target share, up 5.6 points, on a steady 76% of the snaps, but a 10.1-yard catch average, no touchdown and six second-half catches that came while New England passed from behind.
Eli Raridon caught 3 of 4 official targets (5 true, 4 catches) for 56 yards and a 30-yard touchdown (12.9% official/15.2% adjusted, from 9.4%). Snap share: 29 of 54 (54%), from 39 of 68 (57%). The rookie caught two passes for a touchdown on 5 true targets from 15 routes, but a second-tight-end role on 54% of snaps and a touchdown from the CHI 30 mean the points sit on a small base.
Next four matchups (NE): Wk8 at MIA (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 vs GB (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM) | Wk10 vs DET (Neutral – Munich, Sunday 11/15, 9:30 AM ET; New England is the designated home team) | Wk11 BYE
Chicago Bears
Buy Kyle Monangai & Hold Luther Burden & Colston Loveland
Caleb Williams was 22-of-33 for 308 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions (116.7; 23-of-34 for 312 yards on the true line), sacked three times for 19 and used on 5 carries for 18 yards. That is 9.3 yards per attempt on a 66.7% completion rate (8.5 and 83.3% in Week 6); he was 9-of-16 for 167 yards and a touchdown in the first half and 13-of-17 for 141 yards and a touchdown in the second. Next Gen Stats had him blitzed on 61.5% of his dropbacks and 12-of-20 for 205 yards and a touchdown against the blitz.
D’Andre Swift had 26 of the backs’ 28 opportunities (92.9%; 58.3% in Week 6) on 22 carries for 78 yards and a touchdown and 4 catches for 12, and Roschon Johnson 2 (7.1%; 41.7%) on two carries for 13, with Kyle Monangai Not Active for a third straight week. Swift played 59 of 69 snaps (86%; 58% in Week 6), and Johnson 10 (14%; 40%), and 11 of Swift’s 22 carries came in the fourth quarter.
Luther Burden caught 4 of 4 targets for 130 yards and a 24-yard touchdown and carried once for 7 (12.1% official/11.8% adjusted, from 20.0%). Snap share: 42 of 69 (61%), from 30 of 77 (39%) in Week 6. Burden’s snap share rose 22 points and the route participation to 72.2%, but 4 targets in 26 routes, none after halftime, with 92 of his 130 yards after the catch and 106 on three in-breaking throws, is a day his yards after the catch produced and not a new target role.
Colston Loveland caught 7 of 12 targets for 69 yards and a 12-yard touchdown (36.4% official/35.3% adjusted, from 20.0%). Snap share: 58 of 69 (84%), from 68 of 77 (88%). 12 targets, 0.44 targets per route, and a touchdown for the second straight week on 84% of the snaps make him the passing game’s first read; the 58.3% catch rate and 5.8 yards per target are the cost of that volume, and he had one catch in the first half.
Rome Odunze caught 4 of 5 official targets (6 true, 5 catches) for 69 yards (15.2% official/17.6% adjusted, from 12.5%). Snap share: 65 of 69 (94%), from 74 of 77 (96%). He ran a route for every dropback but 5 official targets in 39 routes and a third-option share, with three 21-yard fourth-quarter catches his whole day. But his catches that he made late on some critical long-down-and-distance plays were excellent.
Cole Kmet caught 3 of 3 for 28 yards (9.1% official/8.8% adjusted, from 7.5%). Snap share: 38 of 69 (55%), from 57 of 77 (74%). However, Kmet will miss the rest of the season after suffering a knee injury versus the Patriots. Expect to see more Bears rookie TE Sam Rousch in his absence.
I think if you are a contending team, buying Kyle Monangai makes some sense as a second-half play. He’s got huge upside in this Bears’ rushing attack. The second-year RB has missed the last 3 games with a thumb and toe injury. He still might be 1-2 weeks away, and the next run defenses Chicago faces are tough. But after the Week 10 bye week (when he seems most likely to be ready), the schedule is divine for a strong finish.
Next four matchups (CHI): Wk8 at SEA (Road, Monday 11/2, 8:15 PM) | Wk9 vs TB (Home, Sunday 11/8, 8:20 PM) | Wk10 BYE | Wk11 vs NO
New Orleans Saints
Buy Travis Etienne Jr. & Add Jordyn Tyson & Drop Juwan Johnson
Tyler Shough was 30-of-38 for 278 yards and a touchdown with one interception (95.0), sacked twice for 15, and ran 3 times for 7. That is 7.3 yards per attempt (4.8 in Week 6) on eight more attempts; he was 15-of-19 for 152 yards and the touchdown in the first half and 15-of-19 for 126 and the interception in the second, and the Saints did not score after Q2 1:48. NGS had Shough with a successful play on 59.5% of his dropbacks, setting a new career high.
Chris Olave led the tree at 26.3% adjusted (10 targets, 6 catches, 56 yards; from 21.9%), then Alvin Kamara at 18.4% (7 of 7 for 57), Devaughn Vele and Kendre Miller at 13.2% each, and Barion Brown and Juwan Johnson at 7.9%.
Olave caught 6 of 10 for 56 yards (26.3%, from 21.9%). Snap share: 44 of 57 (77%), from 42 of 72 (58%) in Week 6 (+19 points).
Vele caught 5 of 5 for 54 and a 1-yard touchdown on 4th-and-1 (13.2%, from 18.8%). Snap share: 51 of 57 (89%), from 66 of 72 (92%) in Week 6 (−3 points).
A perfect line on a smaller target role (5 targets, down 5.6 points) with the snap share steady. However, don’t feel the need to hold him if you need roster space due to bye weeks.
Brown caught 3 of 3 for 57 (7.9%, from 3.1%) on a 49-yard catch, in the opening lineup, with 3 kickoff returns for 77. Snap share: 12 of 57 (21%), from 19 of 72 (26%) in Week 6 (−5 points).
Juwan Johnson caught 1 of 3 for 7 (7.9%, from 6.3%; 32 of 57 snaps, 56%, from 42 of 72 and 58%, −2 points): He out-snapped the starter Noah Fant (26, 46%) but turned 32 snaps into 3 targets and 7 yards. The Saints TE’s role has evaporated in the last few weeks, with him failing to hit over a 58% route-run rate the last two games. No need to hold onto him anymore. It was a fun run.
The eventual return of Jordyn Tyson suggests Johnson’s TE1 status is all but over.
Tyson traveled with the team to Paris, but he did not play. Still needs to be added as he inches closer to making his 2026 debut.
Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller each had 13 of the backs’ 26 opportunities (50.0%).
The snaps do not split evenly: Kamara played 32 of 57 (56%, from 26% in Week 6), Miller 22 (39%, from 44%) and Donaldson 4 (7%, from 33%), so Miller’s 13 opportunities came at 0.59 per snap and Kamara’s at 0.41. Kamara ran 6 times for 5 and caught 7 of 7 for 57; Miller ran 8 times for 6 and caught 3 of 5 for 22; no back carried more than 3 yards.
Kamara also had seven catches on seven targets. Miller caught 3 of 5 for 22.
Travis Etienne Jr. is eligible to return from IR after the Saints’ bye week after suffering a hamstring injury a month ago. ETN was brought in to fix the run game for the Saints – which has been completely abysmal in his absence.
If he can get healthy, I think he’s a great buy-low candidate among RBs. He should get back his starting job, and I think the Saints’ run game could improve with one of the best schedules ROS for fantasy RBs. They should also get guard Cesar Ruiz back, and OT Kelvin Banks might also return later on as well.
New Orleans currently ranks bottom-5 in both rushing yards and EPA/rush this season.
In Week 7, New Orleans rushed 17 times for 18 yards (1.1 YPC; NGS had the Saints’ 14 designed runs at 11 yards, 0.8 per carry, the fewest per designed run by any team in a game this season), so the Saints, who threw 38 passes for 278 yards, trailed on all six of their drives and never led.
This offense and backfield need a major shake-up, and that could very much come in the form of a healthy Etienne after the bye week. I like him as a buy-low target for RB-needy teams with the Saints out of sight and out of mind.
New Orleans ranks 4th in RB target share this season (22.4%). Bodes well for Etienne to see a role as a receiver even with Kamara still involved.
RB C.J. Donaldson (shoulder) was also questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Steelers in Paris.
Next matchups (NO): Wk8 BYE | Wk9 vs CLE (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs CAR (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 at CHI | Wk12 @ CIN | Wk 13 GB | Wk14 @ CAR | Wk15 @ TB | Wk16 vs ARI
Pittsburgh Steelers
Hold Jaylen Warren
Pittsburgh won 16-10 in Paris because it out-gained New Orleans 343 to 281 in net yards (5.4 per play on 63 plays to 4.9 on 57), 20 first downs to 19, 10-of-16 on third down to 6-of-12, and 32:03 of possession to 27:57, and because its run game worked while New Orleans’ did not.
Pittsburgh ran 30 times for 148 yards (4.9).
The Steelers’ running back duo continues to have a solid split of work since Rico Dowdle returned to the lineup last week. Jaylen Warren led the duo in snaps (39 to 28), touches (21 to 15) and total yards (137 to 86), but Dowdle surprisingly provided more value as a pass-catcher, hauling in a career-high six passes for 45 yards while Warren had three and 36, respectively (Next Gen Stats) in Week 7.
Warren still totaled 22 of the backs’ 37 opportunities (59.5%; 23 of 38 true) for 101 yards on 18 carries and 3 catches for 36, and Dowdle had 15 (40.5%: 9 carries for 41 and 6 catches/targets for 45 running more routes). The snaps agree: Warren played 40 of 64 (62%, from 75% in Week 6) and Dowdle 28 (44%, from 27%), about 0.55 opportunities per snap each.
Warren converted five of six third-and-short carries, and Next Gen Stats had 71 of his 101 rushing yards after contact (second-most in a game this season) with five missed tackles forced; the backs had five red-zone carries for 10 yards and no touchdown, and no Pittsburgh player was ruled down at the 1.
Warren carried 18 times for 101 yards (5.6) and caught 3 of 4 targets for 36 (16.1% adjusted, from 9.6%); true line 5 targets.59.5% of the backs’ work on 59% of their snaps (40 of 68), five conversions on six third-and-short carries, 78 of his yards before halftime and 8 straight games of 70-plus scrimmage yards (the longest active running-back streak).
The backfield has turned into a 1-2 punch, 60-40 split…but that has not stopped Warren from producing. The Browns run defense up next should keep the good times going.
Warren is a screaming TD regression candidate as his 561 rushing yards rank 7th in the NFL, but he only has one rushing TD. Over the last 2 games with Dowdle, Warren is the RB26 in expected PPG.
D.K. Metcalf and Rico Dowdle led the target tree at 19.4% adjusted each (of 31 adjusted attempts), then Germie Bernard and Jaylen Warren at 16.1%, Pat Freiermuth at 12.9%.
Metcalf fell 11.4 points (from 30.8%) with six targets in the first half and none in the second.
Metcalf (92% of the snaps) and Bernard (91%) played nearly every snap, while the tight ends fell to 53% (Pat Freiermuth) and 56% (Darnell Washington).
Metcalf caught 2 of 6 for 56 yards (19.4%, from 30.8%). Snap share: 59 of 64 (92%), from 75 of 79 (95%) in Week 6 (−3 points). 51 of his 56 yards were one-catch (46 air yards, his longest by air yards since Week 3 of 2020 per NGS) and he had no second-half target, though six first-half targets still led the team.
Bernard ran a team-high 32 routes and caught three of his five targets for 27 yards, which ranked fourth among Steelers’ pass-catchers. That outing was less about Bernard and more about the nature of the game for Pittsburgh; they called runs at a season-high 46.0% rate to exploit the matchup just one week after posting a 71.1% called pass rate, their highest since 2023. And when they did throw, the ball was evenly spread around as six different Steelers logged over 20 receiving yards. The fact that Bernard finished second in targets and receptions on the team is a positive sign moving forward (Next Gen Stats).
The Steelers are passing the ball (65.3% called pass rate) at one of the highest rates in the NFL…but it remains to be seen if that pace keeps up with an aging QB under center that the team needs to keep healthy. And Bernard’s usage bump has definitely been related to the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson…so there’s a case to be made to sell “high” on Bernard even after one bad game.
Aaron Rodgers was 19-of-30 for 212 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions (95.4; 19-of-31 and 92.4 on the true line), sacked 3 times for 17. That is 7.1 yards per attempt (5.2 in Week 6) on 19 fewer attempts; he was 14-of-22 for 164 yards in the first half and 5-of-8 for 48 in the second, and all three sacks came on third down.
Rodgers has taken the second-most sacks (22) this season.
Freiermuth caught 2 of 4 for 20 (12.9%, from 5.8%). Snap share: 34 of 64 (53%), from 57 of 79 (72%) in Week 6 (−19 points). His target share rose, and he converted a 3rd-and-9 (0.12 targets per snap), but his snap share fell 19 points, and he had no red-zone looks (also had a drop on a sideline throw in Saints’ territory). Muth hit a season-high in route participation but didn’t have much to show for it.
Darnell Washington caught his only target for a 4-yard touchdown (3.2%, from 11.5%). Snap share: 36 of 64 (56%), from 56 of 79 (71%) in Week 6 (−15 points). He only ran a grand total of 7 routes.
Also, should note that from a betting standpoint…teams coming off international games without a bye week immediately after have NOT played well.
Next four matchups (PIT): Wk8 vs CLE (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 BYE | Wk10 at CIN (Road, Sunday 11/15, 8:20 PM) | Wk11 at PHI
Week 8 is a rematch between the Browns and Steelers from an earlier Thursday Night matchup. Here’s the breakdown from that game via Week 5 Beyond The Waiver Wire:
Aaron Rodgers’ two interceptions (one of them a Hail Mary) bookended an otherwise productive, three-touchdown night — Pittsburgh’s offense generated 361 total net yards and actually out-possessed Cleveland in the first half it trailed, but the turnovers (plus a missed field goal) were the difference in a one-score loss.
An unshared nearly perfect workhorse week — Jaylen Warren’s 97% snap share dwarfs Travis Homer’s 3%, and Warren handled every meaningful backfield touch (17 carries, 6 targets) to Homer’s 2 token carries.
Warren carried 17 times for 93 yards and caught 3 of 6 targets for 33 yards, on a bell-cow 70 of 72 offensive snaps (97%) — again the clear, unshared Pittsburgh backfield engine, with Travis Homer limited to 2 token carries on just 3% of snaps. His first-half work (10 carries, 61 yards, 6.1 YPC) was considerably sharper than his second half (7 carries, 32 yards), and his receiving line was similarly front-loaded relative to targets (3 of his 6 targets came in each half, but 2 of his 3 catches and 20 of his 33 yards came before the break). Compared to Week 3 (17 carries, 127 yards, 90% snap share, 4 targets/3 rec/49 yds), his snap share actually rose again (90% → 97%) even as his rushing yardage came down on the same carry total, and his target volume rose (4 → 6) while his receiving yardage fell (49 → 33) — the role keeps strengthening even in a week the per-touch production dipped.
The only thing that kept Warren’s usage from being perfect… red-zone usage. Homer logged 2 carries for -1 yard on just 2 of 72 offensive snaps (3%), but they were both in the red zone (one at the goal line).
Notable in-game injuries were almost entirely on the defensive side and non-fantasy-relevant:
D.K. Metcalf’s night was a tale of two halves: just 22 of his 115 yards came before halftime, with 93 of them (and three of his five catches) arriving in Pittsburgh’s fourth-quarter comeback push.
Metcalf caught 5 of a team-high 9 targets (22.5% target share) for 115 yards — his best yardage total of the season — but did not score. The box score badly understates how front-loaded his production was in reverse: just 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 first-half targets, then 3 catches for 93 yards on 5 second-half targets, with his three second-half gains (43, 28, and 22 yards) accounting for nearly all of his night and coming almost entirely within Pittsburgh’s game-tying fourth-quarter drive. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets, 2 rec, 31 yards, 1 TD), his volume and yardage both jumped sharply even though he’s now gone two straight weeks with uneven touchdown luck relative to his role.
Metcalf finally turned his high usage into production on Thursday night after failing to hit over 41 yards in any contest. Colts next week could make things tougher for him against CB Sauce Gardner…so I like him as a sell high (albeit Gardner has struggled in coverage over the last two games). Metcalf feels so dependent on the big play even though he has 9-plus targets in ¾ games this season. He sees so much downfield usage that makes him much more boom-or-bust, especially attached to a QB like Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ aging QB has taken a lot of hits already this season (16), so I have major reservations about whether the Steelers can continue to play with this pass-happy offensive approach.
Roman Wilson caught 3 of 6 targets for 74 yards and the game’s opening touchdown (a 12-yard connection), his second consecutive week opening Pittsburgh’s scoring on the team’s first touchdown drive. He was injured on a fourth-quarter catch but returned before being targeted (unsuccessfully, intercepted by Grant Delpit) on Pittsburgh’s final, game-ending possession. His production was heavily first-half (2 catches, 61 yards pre-half, including a 49-yard gain, against just 1 catch for 13 yards after). Compared to Week 3 (6 targets, 3 rec, 60 yards, 1 TD — also an opening-drive score), his target volume held flat while his yardage rose modestly — a real, repeatable complementary role behind Metcalf, not just a one-week spike, even as he continues to play a non-starter’s snap share (31%, down slightly from Week 3).
I’d imagine his snaps increase because he actually ran fewer routes than Bernard…despite being targeted at a 33% clip. Wilson has six targets in every game this year, but his routes have dipped with Pittman healthy in the last two games.
Per Next Gen Stats…Wilson’s 1.9 yards per route leads the team (min. 50 routes), along with his 24% target rate.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Warren’s receiving role both effectively ended at halftime — Pittman’s four targets were all in the first half (zero thereafter), and the same split shows up in Warren’s receiving line.
Pittman Jr. caught 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards — and every one came in the first half, even though his 72% snap share held steady.
Darnell Washington caught 3 of 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown — his second-half score (a 21-yard catch) was his only reception after halftime, on 3 of his 5 targets; his first-half work was limited to 2 catches for just 6 yards on 2 targets. Compared to Week 3 (4 targets, 3 rec, 67 yards, 0 TD), his target share ticked up again, but his yardage came down, offset by his first touchdown in this tracked stretch — a continuation of a real, gradually expanding role (71% snap share this week, in line with his recent run). The Steelers tried to hit him in the red zone multiple times (three end-zone targets). Back-to-back games with 50% route participation.
Pat Freiermuth caught 3 of 5 targets for 17 yards and the game-tying touchdown with 1:46 left — his only second-half catch came on just 2 targets, with the rest of his modest production (2 catches, 14 yards) arriving in the first half on 3 targets. His 75% snap share is a real increase from Week 3’s 60%, and his target volume ticked up too (4 → 5) even as his yardage came down.
Germie Bernard caught both of his targets for 11 yards — entirely a second-half factor, with zero first-half targets. His snap share rose to 40% (from 27% in Week 3) even as his target count ticked up only modestly (1 → 2).
Pittsburgh’s Derrick Harmon (Out, Q3) and Jamel Dean (Out, Q2→Q3) both got hurt on Thursday night.
The Steelers could be without Dean for “a couple of weeks” due to an ankle injury. Harmon is expected to miss multiple weeks after exiting Thursday’s 27-24 loss to the Browns due to a foot injury. Don’t fear this defense in any capacity.
Cleveland Browns
Add Dylan Sampson & Sell Quinshon Judkins & Buy Denzel Boston
Cleveland won 27-24 on a 32-yard field goal at the last snap because it out-gained Tennessee 491 to 322 in net yards (7.4 per play on 66 plays to 5.2 on 62), made 26 first downs to 18, went 5-of-11 on third down to 5-of-13, held the ball 31:14 to 28:46, even though Cleveland trailed 14-0 early they scored 17 unanswered to lead 17-14 at the half.
Cleveland ran 29 times for 183 yards (6.3) and threw 36 passes for 308 yards (no touchdown pass; one sack for 0).
Deshaun Watson was 25-of-36 for 308 yards with no touchdown pass and one interception (84.0; 26-of-37 for 313 yards and an 84.6 rating on the true line), was sacked once for 0, and ran 3 times for 19 yards and the 9-yard touchdown. That is 8.6 yards per attempt (6.3 in Week 6); he was 17-of-22 for 202 yards in the first half and 8-of-14 for 106 in the second.
Watson has led a game-winning drive in each of the Browns’ five wins in 2026.
K.C. Concepcion led the tree at 27.0% adjusted (10 targets, 8 catches, 129 yards; from 25.9%), then Harold Fannin Jr. at 24.3% (from 11.1%), Denzel Boston at 21.6% (from 18.5%), Jerry Jeudy at 10.8% (from 14.8%) and Sampson at 10.8% (of 37 adjusted attempts).
Judkins had 18 of the backs’ 27 opportunities (66.7%; 18 of 28 true) for 96 yards on 17 carries and two touchdowns, Sampson 9 (33.3%) for 45 rushing and 32 receiving yards (79 yards from scrimmage), McLaughlin none (13 of 22 in Week 6.
Judkins carried 10 times and scored both touchdowns in the first half; three of his carries (30, 10, and 15) gained 55 of the 96 yards, and he scored on both goal-to-go carries; Sampson had 7 of the backs’ 15 second-half opportunities. Judkins played 37 of 70 snaps (53%) and Sampson 32 (46%), a closer split than their opportunities (Judkins had 0.49 per snap, Sampson 0.28), and McLaughlin, who played 39 of 63 snaps (62%) in Week 6, did not play an offensive snap.
Judkins’ role as a receiver took a major toll with Sampson back – he only drew one target while Sampson drew three (and ran the majority of routes out of the backfield). The pass-catching RB played 32 snaps in his first game back, making him the defined second back of a real committee, with 9 opportunities (0.28 per snap), the third-down catch, and a 19-yard run on the touchdown drive.
But to his credit, Judkins has improved as a rusher. Per Next Gen Stats, in Judkins’ first three games, he averaged a 26.2% success rate, 0.5 yards before contact per carry and 2.5 yards after contact per carry; in the last three games, those figures have jumped to 35.4%, 1.2 and 2.9, respectively.
The Browns have 2 more road matchups coming: @PIT, @NO, then HOU and a bye week.
The Steelers matchup is brutal
K.C. Concepcion caught 8 of 10 targets for 129 yards and ran 3 times for 23 (27.0% adjusted, from 25.9%). Snap share: 55 of 70 (79%), from 51 of 63 (81%) in Week 6 (down 2 points). Second straight week atop the tree, with the end-around work, but all nine of his first-half targets came with Cleveland tied or trailing, and he had one target after halftime.
A perfect example of why it makes sense to be patient with rookies/young players who provide a weekly floor…because it just means the ceiling game will eventually come to roost.
Harold Fannin Jr. caught 6 of 9 for 91 and lost a fumble (24.3%, from 11.1%). Snap share: 58 of 70 (83%), from 56 of 63 (89%) in Week 6 (down 6 points). His targets tripled on a slightly smaller snap share (0.16 targets per snap, from 0.05 in Week 6), and the second half (5 targets, 56 yards, the 36-yard catch that set up the winning kick) is the playing time/routes run role that remains elite among fantasy TEs.
Denzel Boston caught 3 of 8 for 27 (21.6%, from 18.5%). Snap share: 61 of 70 (87%), from 58 of 63 (92%) in Week 6 (down 5 points).
Buy low: 8 targets (0.13 per snap) on an 87% snap share is a starter’s volume, but three deep second-half incompletions and 3.4 yards per target keep the line at the floor. Concepcion stole the show in Week 7…but Boston has been the more consistent rookie WR this season. Buy.
No WR has a higher route participation (96%) than Boston.
Jerry Jeudy caught 4 of 4 for 21 (10.8%, from 14.8%). Snap share: 43 of 70 (61%), from 39 of 63 (62%) in Week 6 (down 1 point). Jeudy has been tossed around in trade rumors for WR-needy teams. Worth an add in very deep formats to see if he gets moved.
OT Tytus Howard is being evaluated for a possible concussion and is questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Titans.
Next four matchups (CLE): Wk8 at PIT (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at NO (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs HOU (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 BYE
Week 8 is a rematch between the Browns and Steelers from an earlier Thursday Night matchup. Here’s the breakdown from that game via Week 5 Beyond The Waiver Wire:
Cleveland won a back-and-forth Thursday night game on the final play of a wild fourth quarter. Pittsburgh struck first on an opening drive that took nearly ten minutes off the clock — 17 plays, 78 yards, 9:48 — capped by a 12-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Roman Wilson touchdown (7-0). Cleveland answered fast: after Denzel Ward intercepted a Rodgers pass intended for Michael Pittman Jr. at the Cleveland 44, the Browns needed just 4 plays and 1:57 to cash it in on Jaleel McLaughlin’s 28-yard touchdown run — his only touch of the entire game (7-7). Following a Pittsburgh three-and-out, Cleveland struck again in only 4 plays and 2:10 — a 60-yard Deshaun Watson-to-Denzel Boston completion setting up Quinshon Judkins’ 2-yard touchdown run (7-14). Pittsburgh’s response drive stalled at a missed 48-yard Chris Boswell field goal (wide left), and Cleveland cashed another long drive — 11 plays, 62 yards, 3:59, including a replay-reviewed defensive-holding call that went Cleveland’s way — into Harold Fannin Jr.’s 2-yard touchdown catch (7-21). Pittsburgh salvaged a Boswell 31-yard field goal just before the half to make it 10-21 at the break.
Both offenses stalled through a scoreless third quarter, Pittsburgh punting three straight times while Cleveland’s own drive ended on a Watson fumble — forced by T.J. Watt and recovered by Watt himself at the Cleveland 50 (4:13 left in the third). The fourth quarter swung hard. Cleveland thought it had the ball back when a deep Watson shot toward Denzel Boston was flagged for defensive pass interference, which would have erased what was ruled on the field as an interception — but a replay review of whether the pass was tipped reversed that call and confirmed the interception.
Pittsburgh turned it into a 77-yard, 6-play, 4:01 touchdown drive — a 21-yard Rodgers-to-Darnell Washington score — but the two-point try failed (16-21). Cleveland answered with a Watson fumble of its own (forced by Cameron Heyward, recovered by Watson himself) that still cost field position and led to a 44-yard Andre Szmyt field goal (16-24). After a Pittsburgh three-and-out and a Cleveland fourth-down stop, Pittsburgh drove 80 yards in 8 plays and 1:50 — D.K. Metcalf catches of 22 and 28 yards plus a defensive pass interference penalty moving the chains — for a 3-yard Rodgers-to-Pat Freiermuth touchdown, and this time the two-point conversion (a Rodgers quarterback rush) succeeded, tying the game at 24-24 with 1:46 left. Cleveland’s final answer needed only 7 plays, 36 yards, and 1:32: Szmyt’s game-winning 56-yard field goal with 15 seconds left sealed it, 27-24. Pittsburgh’s last-gasp possession ended on Rodgers’ second interception of the night, this one to Grant Delpit, intended for Roman Wilson.
Pittsburgh actually won time of possession in the first half it trailed (17:55 to Cleveland’s 12:05) and finished with the overall edge too (31:11 to 28:49), while posting 24 first downs (8 rush/11 pass/5 penalty) to Cleveland’s 22 (6/14/2) and 361 total net yards to Cleveland’s 372 — genuinely even statistical margins that the final field goal, not a statistical gap, decided. Third-down efficiency favored Cleveland (40% to Pittsburgh’s 30.8%), and Cleveland was perfect in the red zone (2-for-2) to Pittsburgh’s 2-for-3. The turnover battle was even — two takeaways apiece (both Pittsburgh’s coming via Rodgers interceptions; both Cleveland’s coming off Watson, one interception and one lost fumble) — but Cleveland’s much higher penalty total (14 for 88 yards, to Pittsburgh’s 8 for 50) didn’t stop the Browns from winning the field-position and red-zone battles that actually decided the game.
Deshaun Watson went 24-of-33 for 268 yards and 1 touchdown, with 1 interception (94.0 rating), adding 7 carries for 22 yards and 2 fumbles (1 lost). His first half (14-of-17, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 130.6 rating, 0 sacks) was dramatically more efficient than his second half (10-of-16, 87 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks for 8 yards) — nearly all of his passing production and his only touchdown came before the break. Compared to Week 3 (16-of-30, 144 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 88.8 rating), his completion rate and yardage both rose sharply even as his touchdown total fell and he posted his first interception and lost fumble of the two tracked weeks — a much higher-volume, slightly more turnover-prone week overall.
Watson has led a game-winning drive in each of the last three games, the longest such streak of his career (Next Gen Stats).
Quinshon Judkins’ 66% snap share comfortably outpaces Raheim Sanders’ 34%, and Judkins’ touch volume (17 carries, 7 targets) dwarfs Sanders’ (2 carries, 2 targets) — but the most remarkable backfield line of the night belongs to Jaleel McLaughlin, whose entire game consisted of one offensive snap, one carry, and a 28-yard touchdown. Sanders was a true second-half-only factor — every touch, rushing and receiving, came after halftime. Sanders carried 2 times for 9 yards and caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards.
Judkins was notably more efficient after the break (9 carries for 39 yards in the second half vs. 8 for 14 in the first).
Compared to Week 3 (18 carries, 70 yards, 0 TD, 2 targets/2 rec/9 yds, 51% snaps), his rushing touchdown finally arrived (one of two goal-line carries), and his receiving role expanded significantly (2 → 7 targets). Caught 6 of 7 targets for 43 yards. He set career-highs with seven targets and six receptions — the latter of which led the Browns on Thursday night — on just 14 routes, racking up 43 receiving yards, his second-most ever (per Next Gen Stats).
He still split routes with Sanders, so his receiving will vary week to week (like last week’s dip), but the overall upside is a major boost to Judkins’ ROS value.
K.C. Concepcion caught 5 of 8 targets (24% target share) for 64 yards, with the bulk of his production coming before halftime (4 catches, 58 yards on 5 targets) against a quieter second half (1 catch, 6 yards on 3 targets). His snap share rose to 92% (from 86% in Week 3), and — more importantly — his catch rate finally caught up to his target volume after a rough Week 3 (2-of-9 officially, a true 3-of-11) that this project flagged as a clear buy-low signal; this week’s 5-of-8 is exactly that positive regression showing up.
Denzel Boston caught 4 of 7 targets (21% target share) for a team-high 89 yards, almost all of it before halftime (3 catches, 74 yards on 5 targets, including the 60-yard connection that set up Judkins’ touchdown) against a quieter second half (1 catch, 15 yards on 2 targets). Compared to Week 3 (4 targets, 2 rec, 41 yards), his volume and yardage both rose clearly — continuing to look like Cleveland’s clear No. 1 WR option even without a touchdown this week. He also had another catch wiped off because the Browns elected to accept a penalty…so he actually matched Concepcion with 8 targets.
Harold Fannin Jr. caught 3 of 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown — his lone second-half catch (3 targets, 1 catch, 12 yards) came on his scoring play, with the rest of his modest production (2 catches, 15 yards) arriving in the first half on 2 targets. Compared to Week 3 (9 targets, 7 rec, 51 yards, 2 TD), his target volume dropped significantly, but he scored again—now with a touchdown catch in back-to-back games. 89% snap share and 94% route participation.
Jerry Jeudy, demoted from the starting lineup, still produced his best game of the season (3-of-3 for 36 yards) — entirely in the second half, on only 38% of offensive snaps.
Notable in-game injuries: Cleveland’s Mason Graham (Out, Q1→Q3) and Tyson Campbell (injured Q4, returned). Graham’s injury isn’t considered long-term but could sideline him in Week 5.
Tennessee Titans
Sell Tony Pollard
Cam Ward was 20-of-31 for 181 yards with no touchdown pass and one interception (66.7), was sacked once for 0, and ran twice for 5 yards. That is 5.8 yards per attempt on 31 attempts (4.6 on 22 in Week 6, when he threw a touchdown); he was 7-of-11 for 58 in the first half and 13-of-20 for 123 in the second.
Tony Pollard tied a career-high with three rushing touchdowns in the Titans’ Week 7 loss.
Pollard had just one touchdown on the year before today and hadn’t rushed for more than 100 yards in a game since Week 16 of last season (Next Gen Stats).
Tony Pollard had 28 of the backs’ 32 opportunities (87.5%; 29 of 33 true) for 129 yards on 25 carries, and all three touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 26 yards, and Michael Carter had 4 (12.5%).
Tyjae Spears and Nick Singleton were both Not Active; Pollard had 16 of the 19 first-half carries and 9 of the 11 after halftime, his three catches all came after halftime, and he scored from the CLV 1 after two stops there. Pollard played 47 of 63 snaps (75%; 76% in Week 6) and Carter 16 (25%), with 0.60 opportunities per snap for Pollard (0.57 in Week 6) and 0.25 for Carter.
Given the optics of the matchup (at home versus the Browns’ bad run defense, no Tyjae Spears), I think Pollard’s monster RB1 performance is the quintessential sell-high opportunity. He’s RB24 in the consensus ROS rankings, which feels very high for an RB who had one top-24 finish prior to Week 7.
Now the potential out here is that Pollard gets traded. But moving teams doesn’t necessarily guarantee fantasy success.
In fact, one spot he could get moved to is New Orleans if Etienne is not fully healthy.
OC Kellen Moore was Pollard’s coach in Dallas for 2019-2022, including his 2022 Pro Bowl year. But if he doesn’t get dealt…some of these matchups are real tough coming up if he remains a Titan for the remainder of 2026.
Carnell Tate and Elic Ayomanor led the tree at 22.6% each (from 34.8% and 8.7%), then Wan’Dale Robinson at 19.4% (from 30.4%), Gunnar Helm at 12.9% (from 0.0%).
Calvin Ridley was Not Active, and Ayomanor took his starting spot.
Tate caught 5 of 7 for 69 yards and lost a fumble (22.6%, from 34.8%). Snap share: 56 of 63 (89%), from 34 of 46 (74%) in Week 6 (up 15 points). Continue to hold. Maintained his full-time role (89% of the snaps, up 15 points) and an 18-yard third-down catch on the tying drive ruled down at the CLV 1, but no touchdown.
Ayomanor caught 3 of 7 for 44, including a 26-yard conversion on 4th-and-8 (22.6%, from 8.7%). Snap share: 56 of 63 (89%), from 28 of 46 (61%) in Week 6 (up 28 points). Started and played as much as Tate.
Wan’Dale Robinson caught 4 of 6 for 7 (19.4%, from 30.4%). Snap share: 38 of 63 (60%), from 27 of 46 (59%) in Week 6 (up 1 point).
His snaps held, but his targets per snap fell to 0.16 (from 0.26), with 1.2 yards per target and three red-zone catches without a first down.
Gunnar Helm caught 3 of 4 for 24 (12.9%, from 0.0%). Snap share: 53 of 63 (84%), from 33 of 46 (72%) in Week 6 (up 12 points).
Next four matchups (TEN): Wk8 at CIN (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 BYE | Wk10 vs JAX (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 at DAL (Road, Sunday 11/22) | Wk12 at JAX
New York Giants
Add Devin Singletary & Sell Cam Skattebo & Hold Isaiah Likely
J.J. McCarthy was 20-of-28 for 252 yards with no touchdown, no interception and 3 sacks for 20 (99.1; 20-of-29 for 252 and 95.8 on the true line), and threw every Giants attempt. That is 9.0 yards per attempt on 28 attempts (Week 6: 243 on 21); he was 9-of-12 for 178 in the first half, 10-of-15 for 65 in the second and 1-of-1 for 9 in overtime.
The new Giants starting QB made several high-level downfield throws. He looks comfortable and is playing loose. He fits so well in the Jaxon Dart offensive system.
McCarthy had five completions of at least 20 yards in Week 7, generating explosive plays against a defense that has allowed a ton of explosive plays (Next Gen Stats). McCarthy generated a 19.4% explosive pass rate in Week 7 against the Texans, the fourth-highest of his career (min. 10 attempts), but a 32.3% success rate (2nd-lowest).
McCarthy was efficient on throws outside the numbers, completing 8-of-13 passes for 169 yards (13.0 yards per attempt). On all other throws, he completed 12-of-14 passes for 83 yards (5.9 yards per attempt).
The Giants won 27-21 in overtime because they out-gained Houston 420 to 237 in net yards (6.5 per play on 65 plays to 4.4 on 54), made 22 first downs to 15, went 5-of-13 on third down to 3-of-12 and 2-of-2 on fourth down to 1-of-1, held the ball 35:50 to 26:45 and ran 34 times for 188 yards (5.5) against Houston’s 25 for 84 (3.4), and still needed the extra period because they missed field goals of 56 and 44 yards (both wide right) and Houston scored on a 90-yard-net drive built on 32 yards of pass-interference penalties plus a 43-yard catch (14-14 at Q2 0:39) and a 9-play, 48-yard drive (21-21 at Q4 0:57).
The usage stories are Cam Skattebo’s return as the lead back (18 of the backs’ 33 opportunities, 54.5%, from none in Week 6, on 56% of the snaps from 8%) and Jameis Winston getting the goal-line snaps.
Skattebo had a career-high 124 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, Singletary 8 (24.2%) for 41 yards and the 30-yard overtime winner on 5 carries and 3 catches, and Tracy 7 (21.2%) for 15 yards and a 2-yard touchdown before his injury.
Per Next Gen Stats, Skattebo forced a missed tackle on 33.3% of his touches, his third-highest rate ever, and tied his career-high with four explosive runs.
The halfbacks’ snaps were Skattebo 37 of 66 (56%; 8% in Week 6), Singletary 19 (29%; 40%) and Tracy 10 (15%; 38%), with fullback Patrick Ricard on 34 (52%; 14%). Four Skattebo carries (42, 19, 16 and 11) gained 88 of his 124 yards and his other 13 gained 36 (2.8); he was 2-for-2 on 3rd-and-1.
The Giants’ four red-zone snaps were all runs (Tracy, Winston twice, Skattebo), the three goal-line-area snaps went to Tracy, and then Winston, and Skattebo had no carries inside the Houston 16.
Skattebo told Dan Graziano of ESPN after Sunday’s 27-21 overtime win at Houston that he “felt something in his hamstring” during his final carry of the game.
Tracy left Sunday’s game at Houston due to a hamstring injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports. He was placed on IR on Tuesday.
The Giants told us all offseason that they wanted to make upgrades to their RB room. They were “in” on Kenneth Walker in free agency and interested in Jeremiyah Love in the NFL Draft.
Given all the injuries they are dealing with…I feel very strongly they will make a play for a veteran RB in the trade market (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley etc.) as the current leader in the NFC East.
Therefore, I’d be rushing to get Skattebo off my roster ASAP…after he reclaimed RB1 duties this past week (while also sustaining a hamstring injury). Not to mention Jameis Winston is now making cameos as the team’s short-yardage back….Woof.
I’d also add Singletary off waivers if by chance the Giants don’t make a splashy move in the RB trade market.
Malik Nabers led the tree at 31.0% adjusted (9 targets of 29 adjusted attempts; from 30.6%), then Malachi Fields at 17.2%, Isaiah Likely at 13.8%, Devin Singletary and Darnell Mooney at 10.3% each.
Nabers caught 7 of 9 for 111 yards (31.0% adjusted, from 30.6%). Snap share: 48 of 66 (73%), from 66 of 77 (86%) in Week 6 (−13 points). A 94-yard first half and the top share with McCarthy, though 9 targets (not 15), no touchdown, no red-zone look, and a 13-point snap drop. It seems like McCarthy can at least keep Nabers afloat and well within the top 12 fantasy WRs ROS. The Giants’ No. 1 WR has four straight games with 100 yards.
Malachi Fields caught 4 of 5 for 83 yards (17.2%, from 18.4%). Snap share: 49 of 66 (74%), from 72 of 77 (94%) in Week 6 (−20 points). Monitor: a 47-yard catch and two third-down conversions on a modest base (5 targets on 49 snaps, 0.10 per snap), with the 20-point snap drop the thing to watch.
Isaiah Likely (TE) caught 2 of 4 for 12 yards (13.8%, from 22.4%). Snap share: 57 of 66 (86%), from 70 of 77 (91%) in Week 6 (−5 points). Likely’s role/usage in the offense stayed the status quo, but the targets dropped dramatically in McCarthy’s first start.
The snaps held, and the targets did not (4 on 57 snaps), with no first-half target and a fall of 8.6 points.
Per Next Gen Stats, Likely saw a season-low four targets, catching two of them for a season-low 12 yards on 25 routes (season-low 16.0% target rate). It was a difficult matchup as the Texans were allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per touch to TEs (2.11) heading into Week 7.
But he averaged his highest separation of the season at 3.3 yards, and three of his targets were while he was open. He only caught one of them for eight yards, posting a –37.5% catch rate over expected, the third-lowest mark by a TE with at least three such targets in a game this year.
And it was his first game of the season without running a single deep route — his 217 yards on downfield targets entering Sunday was second among TEs. Likely to be a major part of this offense moving forward, but his connection with McCarthy remains in question.
Because the bar is so low for fantasy TEs, it’s hard to just label Likely as a straight-up sell after one bad game. But it’s very possible that Likely might not be an elite option ROS if this is closer to his new norm with McCarthy under center. At least put Likely on the trade block.
As I mentioned earlier, …the big downfield throws were there, whereas the more routine, move-the-chains throws were not nearly as successful. Puts into context why Likely busted…as he was not the recipient of any downfield shots.
Darnell Mooney caught 1 of 3 for 4 yards and ran once for 3 (10.3%, from 6.1%). Snap share: 36 of 66 (55%), from 28 of 77 (36%) in Week 6 (+19 points).
Next four matchups (NYG): Wk8 BYE | Wk9 at PHI (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs WAS (Home, Thursday 11/12, 8:15 PM, Prime Video) | Wk11 vs JAC (Home, Sunday 11/22, 1:00 PM)
Houston Texans
Buy Marvin Harrison Jr. & Hold Nico Collins
C.J. Stroud was 17-of-28 for 153 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and 1 sack for 0 (99.3; 19-of-33 for 157 and 90.1 on the true line), with two sneaks for 4 yards. That is 5.5 yards per attempt (Week 6: 24-of-34 for 312 and three touchdowns); he was 10-of-15 for 108 in the first half, 7-of-11 for 45 in the second and 0-of-2 in overtime, and threw the two-point pass to Cade Stover.
Nico Collins and Xavier Hutchinson led the target share tree at 21.2% adjusted (7 true targets of 33 adjusted attempts; Collins from 19.4%, Hutchinson from 8.3%), then Dalton Schultz at 18.2%, Marvin Harrison Jr. at 12.1%, Woody Marks at 9.1%, Jaylin Noel and Kayshon Boutte at 6.1% each.
On snaps, Collins played 41 (67%, from 73%), Schultz 35 (57%, from 40%), Hutchinson 34 (56%, from 54%), Stover 22 (36%, from 21%), Noel and Boutte 19 each (31%), and Harrison 13 (21%, from 19%).
Collins caught 2 of 5 official targets for 6 yards (7 true; 21.2% adjusted, from 19.4%). Snap share: 41 of 61 (67%), from 46 of 63 (73%) in Week 6 (−6 points).
A third straight week of 7 true targets (0.17 per snap) and two penalty-drawing targets, on 6 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats: Collins posted several season-lows on Sunday, including routes (23), targets (5, tied with Week 6), catches (2), yards (6, his second-fewest ever) and air yards (44), while he set a career-low with –2 completed air yards. Collins ran vertical routes at a season-high 47.8% rate, but posted a season-low 8.8 air yards per target and didn’t log a single downfield catch for the first time this season (two targets).
He drew coverage from Giants CB1 Deonte Banks, who allowed just 1 reception for 4 yards across 14 matchups against Nico Collins, 10 of which he played in man coverage.
All four of his targets against Collins were in a tight window, his second-most in a single matchup in his career. (NGS).
His target numbers haven’t increased week-over-week a single time this season, and in turn, his catch totals have gone down each week since his return in Week 4. After seeing four deep targets and catching two touchdowns in his first two games, he has seen just three deep targets and hasn’t scored in his last three outings. In that span, he’s tied for third on the Texans in red-zone targets (2), and in the last two weeks, he ranks second in target share (16.7%) and air yards share (22.7%).
There’s no questioning who the alpha in Houston is…but it’s curious Collins’ fall with all the additional pass-catchers being used in the offense. Not ready to call him a straight-up sell…but he’s only had two great games versus BUF/DAL this season. WR12 in ROS rankings feels a bit rich. Again, I don’t want to sell him for pennies on the dollar after a bad game on a bye week…but if you need wins right now, I think he’s tradeable. Otherwise, hold for better days. Stroud is playing very well…so we know the QB isn’t the issue.
Xavier Hutchinson caught 3 of 6 for 17 yards and the 3-yard touchdown (7 true; 21.2%, from 8.3%), ran twice for 12 and returned three kickoffs for 74. Snap share: 34 of 61 (56%), from 34 of 63 (54%) in Week 6 (+2 points).
All three catches came after Q4 8:47, and he had a fumble that Marks recovered.
Dalton Schultz (TE) caught 5 of 6 for 45 yards (18.2%, from 16.7%). Snap share: 35 of 61 (57%), from 25 of 63 (40%) in Week 6 (+17 points).
The shrinking snap share (64%, 52%, 40% in Weeks 4 to 6) reversed to 57%, the most of Houston’s tight ends, with 6 targets again and 4 first-half catches; but no red-zone looks.
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 1 of 4 for 6 yards and a touchdown (12.1%, from 11.1%). Snap share: 13 of 61 (21%), from 12 of 63 (19%) in Week 6 (+2 points). 4 targets again and a score on his only red-zone look, but one catch and three misses on deep or third-down throws, and the snap count that limited him in Week 6 barely moved. MHJ only ran eight routes.
But in his two games in Houston, Harrison has been targeted on eight of his 16 routes, catching four of them for 40 yards (50% target rate per route run).
Amazingly, Harrison’s 26.6% air yards share in the last two games leads the team. A 50.0% target rate, 16.6 air yards per attempt, and 2.5 yards per route as a Texan are the type of efficiency numbers that could make Harrison a highly productive fantasy asset with increased usage…which you’d believe would increase after the bye week.
Remember that Harrison and Stroud are boys. I think we see Harrison Jr. come out of the gates in a full-time role after the team’s bye week.
Woody Marks had all 20 of Houston’s official back opportunities (100.0%: 19 carries and 1 target; 23 of 23 on the true line) for 66 yards (3.5 per carry) and a 15-yard catch, with 8 carries for 36 in the first half, 10 for 30 in the second and 1 for 0 in overtime, on 54 of 61 snaps (89%, from 78%; 0.37 opportunities per snap, as in Week 6) with Dare Ogunbowale on the other 7 and no touch.
He ran 15 of his 19 carries with a sixth lineman reported eligible, was 0-for-1 on 3rd-and-1, and had 2 red-zone carries for 1 yard; Hutchinson, not Marks, took the two closest runs (10 and 2) and the 3-yard touchdown.
Even if/when David Montgomery returns, I think Marks stays in the RB1 role. Hold him until Monty proves he is healthy.
Jaylin Noel (toe) was seen in a walking boot after Sunday’s 27-21 overtime loss, later reported to be turf toe. Noel caught 2 of 2 for −3 yards (6.1%, from 11.1%). Snap share: 19 of 61 (31%), from 31 of 63 (49%) in Week 6 (−18 points). Despite the injury, Noel tied for second in routes run (51.7%).
Kayshon Boutte caught 1 of 2 for 25 (6.1%, from 8.3%). Snap share: 19 of 61 (31%), from 26 of 63 (41%) in Week 6 (−10 points). Sell: a falling snap share and no usage after Q2 9:59.
Tank Dell caught 1 of 1 for 43 yards (3.0%). Snap share: 14 of 61 (23%; first game played in two years). 1 target on 14 snaps.
Next four matchups (HOU): Wk8 BYE | Wk9 at LAC (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM) | Wk10 at CLE (Road, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 vs IND (Home, Thursday 11/19, 8:15 PM)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Hold Bucky Irving & Add Kenneth Gainwell & Baker Mayfield
Tampa Bay won 43-13 because it out-gained Carolina 322 to 266 in net yards (5.4 per play on 60 plays to 4.9 on 54), made 21 first downs to 15, went 7-of-12 on third down to 6-of-11, held the ball 35:57 to 24:03 and won the turnover count 4-0 (CAR muffed punt, sack-fumble returned for a touchdown, two interceptions), which produced 20 points.
Tampa Bay ran 49 times for 258 yards (5.3) and threw 11 passes (7 completions for 64 yards, no sack). Baker Mayfield was 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown (109.7; 8-of-13 for 73 yards and two touchdowns on the true line, 116.3), in his first game after three weeks because of his dislocated thumb.
I’d expect more from Mayfield further removed from the injury; and the schedule is great for him rest of season.
Still, the blowout is the context for the second-half usage for both teams: Tampa Bay led by 20 points or more from Q2 3:58, did not throw a pass in the fourth quarter (Kenneth Gainwell 5 carries for 39 and Sean Tucker 6 for 53).
Bucky Irving had 26 of the backs’ 47 opportunities (55.3%; 27 of 48 true) for 106 yards on 24 carries and two touchdowns, Gainwell 14 (29.8%) for 88 yards and Tucker 7 (14.9%) for 52.
Irving carried 24 times for 106 yards (4.4) and two touchdowns and caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 (15.4% adjusted, from 6.8%); true line: 25 carries for 111.
Snap share: 37 of 63 (59%), from 63 of 74 (85%) in Week 6 (−26 points).
Bucky went 3-for-3 on 3rd-and-1 attempts and earned 7 of the backs’ 9 red-zone carries and both scores.
Irving was productive early and often, receiving 11 of his season-high 25 touches on the opening drive of the game (Next Gen Stats). Mayfield only threw 11 passes in his first game back from a dislocated thumb, so the Buccaneers leaned on Irving as a rusher (their 81.7% called run rate was the highest since New England’s 93.9% in Week 13 of 2021, the infamous wind game at Buffalo), giving him 24 carries, his third-most ever.
Gainwell carried 14 times for 88 yards (a 29-yarder; 39 of the yards in the fourth quarter). Snap share: 19 of 63 (30%), from 11 of 74 (15%) in Week 6 (+15 points).
Irving had 20 of the 30 first-half back opportunities (66.7%) and none after Q3 1:08; Tucker’s 46-yard touchdown run was 46 of his 52 yards (his other six carries gained 6) with a 37-point lead; the backs had 9 red-zone carries for 22 yards and two touchdowns, and Irving was ruled down at the CAR 1 and scored on the next snap.
Tucker carried 7 times for 52 yards and a 46-yard touchdown (Week 6: Not Active).
Snap share: 9 of 63 (14%); 88% of his yards were one garbage-time run, and he failed on both short-yardage carries.
Needless to say…don’t go blow your FAAB on the Bucs’ backup RBs. Gainwell did see 9 carries in the first half (coaches talked about getting him more touches this week), but he should mostly be rostered even as just a handcuff to Irving.
Chris Godwin led the target tree at 46.2% adjusted (6 true targets of 13 adjusted attempts; from 18.2%).
Godwin caught 4 of 5 targets for 27 yards (46.2% adjusted; true line 5 of 6 for 36 and a touchdown). The veteran was the top target and the only Tampa Bay player targeted after halftime, with a called-back touchdown. 27 yards on six true targets in an 11-throw game.
Tez Johnson caught 2 of 2 for 33 yards and the 14-yard touchdown, and ran once for 14 yards.
Ted Hurst had 1 official target (2 true; one erased by pass interference) and no catches (15.4%, from 15.9%).
Snap share: 35 of 63 (56%) (Week 6: 37, 50%).
Cade Otton (TE) had 1 target and no catch (7.7%, from 4.5%). Snap share: 56 of 63 (89% (Week 6: 74, 100%).
Emeka Egbuka was Not Active due to a foot/concussion. Remains to be seen how long Egbuka will be out, but Godwin projects as the target leader without the second-year wideout.
Good schedule coming up for all Buccaneers offensive players. And like I mentioned last week…the offense is concentrating volume around the top players.
Next four matchups (TB): Wk8 vs ATL (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at CHI (Road, Sunday 11/8, 8:20 PM) | Wk10 BYE | Wk11 at DET
Carolina Panthers
Buy Jalen Coker & Sell Tetairoa McMillan
Bryce Young was 14-of-27 for 163 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions (51.9), sacked 5 times for 32, lost one fumble, and ran once for 9 yards.
Tetairoa McMillan led the tree at 19.4% adjusted (6 targets, 4 catches, 40 yards; from 22.0%). McMillan caught 4 of 6 for 40 yards.
Jalen Coker caught 1 of 4 targets for 9 yards (12.9%, from 34.1%). Young missed him on what would likely have been a long TD. Pain. But view this dip in production as a buying opportunity.
Darren Waller caught 1 of 2 for 50 yards and a touchdown (6.5%, from 4.9%).
Snap share: 25 of 56 (45%) – (Week 6: 36, 46%).
Tommy Tremble (TE) caught 1 of 2 for 8 (6.5%, from 9.8%).
Snap share: 27 of 56 (48%) – (Week 6: 54, 68%).
Chuba Hubbard had 12 of the backs’ 23 opportunities (52.2%; 13 of 25 true) on 7 carries for 33 yards and 4 catches for 27, against 30 of 31 in Week 6; Trevor Etienne had 8 (34.8%).
Hubbard had 7 of the 8 first-half back opportunities (87.5%) and no touch in the fourth quarter, and no Carolina back carried inside the TB 12 (its one goal-line snap, a 4th-and-1 at the TB 5, was a pass to Brycen Tremayne).
Hubbard carried 7 times for 33 yards and caught 4 of 5 for 27 (16.1% adjusted, from 4.9%); true line: 8 carries for 63.
Snap share: 34 of 56 (61%) (Week 6: 74, 94%).
Hubbard earned 87.5% of the first-half back work and a receiving role that grew to 5 targets, but 7 carries, no red-zone carry, and no fourth-quarter touch in a game Carolina trailed by 27 or more. Trevor Etienne carried 6 times for 8 and caught 2 of 2 for 17 (6.5%, from 0.0%).
Quick turnaround for Carolina to right the ship on Thursday night. After they get beat down by the Buccaneers (underrated defense),
I’d view mostly their entire offense as a buy-low. At least I did until I looked closer at their ROS schedule and OL injuries.
OT Taylor Moton was carted off in Week 7 and is expected to miss extended time. OG Damien Lewis also got hurt and is not expected to play on Thursday night (listed as day-to-day).
If you have been relying on Bryce Young as your fantasy QB… consider pivoting. No team has a tougher ROS schedule for fantasy QBs than the Cardiac Cats.
And that also trickles down to some of the WRs. I still like Coker as a buy (given his price), but T-Mac might be expendable. He is WR16 in the consensus rankings, but he has only finished that high once all season (versus the Lions when Coker did not play).
Very possible that he is being priced at or near his ceiling, with the Panthers’ schedule getting tougher after starting the year versus cupcakes. Love the player, but he might just be a tad overvalued by the market.
I also am notorious for listing players as sells before Thursday night games…just to see them go off. It’s quite a miserable experience. Consider McMillan a “soft-sell.”
Next four matchups (CAR): Wk8 at GB (Road, Thursday 10/29, 8:15 PM, Prime Video) | Wk9 vs DEN (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 at NO (Road, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 vs BAL
Indianapolis Colts
Add Seth McGowan
The Vikings blitzed on 85.2% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks against the Colts in Week 7, the highest blitz rate by any defense in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Minnesota generated pressure on 60.9% of those blitzes, with all four of its sacks coming when blitzing.
Jones went 13-of-22 for 108 yards and an interception (52.8 rating), was sacked 4 times for 44 yards, and ran 4 times for 13: 6-of-11 for 50 yards in the first half and 7-of-11 for 58 and the interception in the second (39.2). He was 5-of-8 for 51 on third down, with every completion a conversion.
Jonathan Taylor had 21 of the backs’ 33 opportunities (63.6%, from 86.2% in Week 6): 18 carries for 95 yards and a 38-yard touchdown, plus 2 catches for 15 yards, with two carries (38 and 12) gaining 50 of the 95. 67% of the snaps played (by far a season-low).
Seth McGowan had 12 (36.4%, from 13.8%): 11 carries for 46 yards (13 for 55 true) and a 2-yard catch. Taylor’s one red-zone carry gained 6 yards, and no back had a live carry inside the MIN 10.
12 opportunities (14 true) on a 33% snap share, triple Week 6’s 4, make McGowan clear second back – and his total opportunity share was by far a season high.
It’s not a coincidence that the rookie got his most work the same exact week we get all these reports about the Colts being potential sellers at the trade deadline. JT is rumored to be on the trade block, so McGowan needs to be stashed across the board.
With Tyler Warren Not Active for a second straight game, the tree flattened across 22 attempts (from 42 in Week 6): Josh Downs 18.2% (18.2%), Keenan Allen 13.6% (27.3%), who also played fewer than 50% of the team’s total offensive snaps.
Allen caught 3 of 3 targets for 31 yards (13.6% adjusted, from 27.3%). 3 catches, two third-down conversions, and no targets in the last 23:56 of game clock suggest the Week 6 volume did not follow. Josh Downs caught 2 of 4 for 18 yards (18.2%, level with Week 6).
Downs and Allen have also been discussed as part of trade rumors as the Colts look to sell the farm before the NFL trade deadline.
Indy has already traded away starting guard Quenton Nelson and DL DeForest Buckner.
It’s been reported that nobody is off limits when it comes to trades.
FIRE SALE.
Names to keep in mind who could be dealt next: JT and Grover Stewart. The WRs also have been floated as trade candidates.
CB Justin Walley (undisclosed) was questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Vikings.
Next four matchups (IND): Wk8 at JAC (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs DAL (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs MIA (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 at HOU (Thursday 11/19, 8:20 PM, Prime Video).
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings defeated the Colts 16-10 in Week 7 to win their 11th straight game, the longest active win streak in the NFL and third-longest in Vikings franchise history.
The 2026 season marks their first 6-0 start since 2009, when they finished 12-4 and ultimately lost in the NFC Championship Game against the Saints. Their 125 points scored are tied for the 2nd fewest by any team through a 6-0 start since 1950, trailing only the 1978 Rams (116) and matching the 1973 NFC Champion Vikings.
Minnesota won 16-10 because it out-gained Indianapolis 275 to 218 in net yards (4.9 per play on 56 plays to 3.7 on 59), made 17 first downs to 15 and scored a touchdown and three field goals to Indianapolis’ touchdown and one field goal, even though it was 3-of-11 on third down to 8-of-15 and held the ball 28:10 to 31:50. Indianapolis scored all 10 of its points in the first half (Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard run at Q1 9:20 and Shrader’s 43-yard field goal at Q2 0:03) and none in the second half on 29 plays, 111 net yards and 17:56 of possession.
Kyler Murray completed 14 of 24 passes for 150 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions against the Colts in Week 7. Murray used play-action on 44.8% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in a game in his career, completing 8 of 11 play-action passes for 82 yards (Next Gen Stats). Also ran 5 times for 39, 35 of them on one Q4 scramble. Even so, Murray missed a ton of throws and posted a season-low completion rate over expected at -12.2%.
The offense in Minnesota has been lackluster:
- Murray is averaging a career-low EPA/dropback this season: -0.09 (23rd among 33 QBs this season).
- Career-high time to throw (2.91)
- 3rd-worst offense on first down (yards/play)
And it’s been against teams such as the Packers, Bears, Bucs, Dolphins, Saints, and Colts.
Minnesota was 1-for-2 in the red zone, 3-of-11 on third down, and 3-for-4 on field goals (the 59-yarder was blocked), was flagged 4 times for 24 yards, and had three passes erased by penalty.
Jordan Mason, back from injured reserve, had 17 of the backs’ 26 opportunities (65.4%): 15 carries for 68 yards and two targets, with no catch, and Aaron Jones had 9 (34.6%, from 93.3% in Week 5): 8 carries for 26 yards and a fumbled catch. Mason had 10 carries to Jones’ 7 through Q3 and all five of the backs’ carries after Jones was hurt on his Q4 12:22 17-yard run (did not return); Mason’s one red-zone carry gained 2 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mason led the duo in snaps (35 to 15, 64% to 25%), touches (15 to 9), total yards (68 to 29), success rate (40.0%) and missed tackles forced (4 to 0). In their two games together (Weeks 1 and 7), Mason has 23 more snaps (64 to 41), nine more touches (30 to 21), nearly twice as many yards (127 to 66), and nine missed tackles forced to Jones’ one.
Unless the Vikings make a move for another RB – I’d “trust” Mason as the team’s RB1 rest of the season (although the schedule will get much tougher).
Justin Jefferson caught 4 of 7 official targets (8 true) for 44 yards (29.6% adjusted, from 25.8%).
Jefferson led the Vikings with 44 receiving yards on 4 receptions.
T.J. Hockenson (TE) caught 4 of 5 for 35 yards and a touchdown (18.5%, from 3.2%).
Jordan Addison caught 2 of 3 official targets for 20 yards (5 true targets, 3 catches and 54 yards; 18.5% adjusted) and ran once for 3.
Snap share: 49 of 59 (83%) (Week 5: Not Active; Week 4: 75, 96%). Hold: back at a Week 4 share, with his best play (a 34-yard catch to the IND 2) erased by holding.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell said Jones aggravated a previous knee injury during Sunday’s 16-10 win against the Colts, Ben Goessling of the Minnesota Star Tribune reports.
Next four matchups (MIN): Wk8 at DET (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs BUF (Home, Monday 11/9, 8:15 PM) | Wk10 at GB | Wk11 at SF
Miami Dolphins
Add Greg Dulcich & Caleb Douglas & Malik Willis & Buy Ollie Gordon
Miami won 28-25 because it built a 21-7 halftime lead on three long touchdown drives (7 plays and 76 yards, 14 plays and 60 yards over 7:35, and 15 plays and 87 yards over 8:38) and then held off a New York comeback that ran out of clock. New York out-gained Miami 377 to 360 in net yards (7.1 per play on 53 plays to 5.6 on 64), but Miami made 24 first downs to 19, held the ball 34:36 to 25:24, had no turnovers to New York’s one interception, and was 3-for-3 in the red zone to New York’s 3-for-4.
New York scored 11 fourth-quarter points of its 25, and Miami never trailed (a largest lead of 14).
Malik Willis was 14-of-21 for 208 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions (130.7; 14-of-22 on the true line, 124.8), sacked twice for 4 and 8 carries for 37 yards and a touchdown. That is 9.9 yards per attempt (5.1 in Week 5) on 6 fewer attempts; he was 10-of-13 for 128 yards and a touchdown in the first half and 4-of-8 for 80 yards and a touchdown in the second, and he scored on a 2-yard scramble after Gordon lost a yard from the 1.
Willis completed 7 of 9 passes under pressure for a career-high 138 yards and a touchdown in the Dolphins’ first win in Week 7, adding three scramble runs for 20 yards and another score against pressure. Willis finished 11-for-16 for 184 yards and two touchdowns from inside the pocket (+12.2 EPA), according to Next Gen Stats.
Willis has been a top-15 fantasy QB in back-to-back games with 8 carries in each game. The rushing is coming through, and the matchups are solid coming up. Add him. Per NGS, Willis’ rushing is an integral part of his game, posting the league’s second-highest scramble run rate (13.0%) and the most scramble rush yards of any QB (214). His 33.4 fantasy points on scrambles now lead all players as well.
I’d take Willis over Bryce Young and Baker Mayfield for the rest of the season.
Ollie Gordon II forced a career-high 10 missed tackles in the Dolphins’ Week 7 win, just the sixth time since 2018 a Dolphins player has reached double digits. Gordon faced a stacked box (8+ box defenders) on 11 carries, tied for the second-most by any player this season. He scored a touchdown against a stacked box but gained just 20 yards and had three successful runs against stacked boxes. Against seven or fewer box defenders, Gordon gained 83 yards on 14 carries and produced eight successful runs (Next Gen Stats). Gordon had a career-high 103 rushing yards en route to his 3rd straight game with at least 80 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Gordon had 28 of the backs’ 35 opportunities (80.0%; 75.0% in Week 5) on 25 carries for 103 yards and a touchdown and 3 targets, and Wright had 7 (20.0%) for 8 yards. Gordon had all five of Miami’s red-zone carries from the 5 or closer and gained −4 on them (one touchdown), and he was ruled down at the NYJ 1 on a converted 4th-and-1 (Q1 1:46; §6) and scored on the next snap. He played 54 of 65 snaps (83%, from 65%).
Meanwhile…Jaylen Wright (quadriceps) left Sunday’s game against the Jets early and did not return (NGS). Wright carried 6 times for 8 yards and had 1 target (4.5%, from 0.0%). Snap share: 8 of 65 (12%), from 9 of 66 (14%) in Week 5 (−2 points).
Buy Gordon: Owns one of the best schedules ROS for fantasy RBs.
The target tree was Greg Dulcich 22.7%, Chris Bell 18.2%, Malik Washington 18.2%, Caleb Douglas 13.6%, Ollie Gordon 13.6%.
Douglas returned and scored twice on three targets, while Washington’s target share fell 11.4 points from 29.6%. The snaps show who was behind the shifts: Kevin Coleman played 10 of 65 snaps (15%, from 64%), Bell 31 (48%, from 71%) and Douglas 44 (68%), while Washington held 52 (80%, unchanged).
Washington caught 3 of 3 official targets (4 true) for 27 yards and ran twice for 8 (18.2%, from 29.6%). Snap share: 52 of 65 (80%), unchanged from 53 of 66 (80%) in Week 5. But it was clear that with more competition, Washington’s targets tanked (season-low 14.3% target share).
Dulcich’s five targets were all caught for 86 yards, all before halftime.
The Dolphins TE caught 5 of 5 targets for 86 yards (22.7% adjusted, from 18.5%). Snap share: 42 of 65 (65%), from 49 of 66 (74%) in Week 5 (−9 points). The largest share of the tree (0.12 targets per snap) on a clean 5-for-5, but all five came in the first half, and he had no second-half targets. Still…it’s very encouraging for Dulcich to see this amount of volume right out of the gates post bye-week. Ran a season-high 83% routes.
Chris Bell caught 3 of 4 for 25 yards (18.2%, from 7.4%). Snap share: 31 of 65 (48%), from 47 of 66 (71%) in Week 5 (−23 points).
Caleb Douglas caught 2 of 3 for 70 yards and two touchdowns (13.6%; Week 5: Not Active). Snap share: 44 of 65 (68%). He was immediately thrown back into a full-time role, so I’d be adding Douglas.
Per Next Gen Stats, all of Douglas’ production came on his two catches: a seven-yard snag in the endzone in the first quarter and a 63-yard scoring catch-and-run in the fourth. In just two full games, Douglas ranks eighth among rookies in receiving yards (183) and tied second in receiving touchdowns (2). On his own team, those figures rank third and first, respectively.
Next four matchups (MIA): Wk8 vs NE (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 vs DET (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 at IND | Wk11 at BUF
New York Jets
Add Omar Cooper & Buy Garrett Wilson & Breece Hall & Add Geno Smith & Hold Braelon Allen
Geno Smith was 23-of-30 for 287 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception (125.3; 24-of-32 for 293 yards and 2 interceptions on the true line, 107.9), sacked twice for 18 and used on 2 carries for 0. That is 9.6 yards per attempt (8.4 in Week 6) on the same 30 attempts for a third straight week; he was 8-of-10 for 86 yards, a touchdown and the interception in the first half and 15-of-20 for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns in the second, and 112 of his 287 yards were two throws to rookie WR Omar Cooper (52 and 60).
Need a streaming fantasy QB? Add Smith in a revenge game versus a reeling Raiders defense.
The target tree was led by RB Braelon Allen 21.9%, followed by Mason Taylor 18.8%, Omar Cooper Jr. 15.6%, Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell 12.5% each.
On just five routes against man coverage, Omar Cooper Jr. earned three targets and caught all three for 115 yards and a touchdown. Cooper’s 23.0 yards per route against man are the most by any player in a game since at least 2018 (min. 5 routes), according to Next Gen Stats.
Cooper Jr. caught 5 of 5 for 115 yards and a touchdown (15.6% adjusted, from 25.0%). Snap share: 38 of 59 (64%), from 51 of 62 (82%) in Week 6 (−18 points).
Even with Adonai Mitchell back, Cooper stayed involved. Snaps and routes dipped slightly, but the first-round pick still ran a route on 69% of the dropbacks (down from 79% in Week 6).
Cooper’s rookie numbers are bonkers: 12 catches for 248 yards and 2 TDs on 13 official targets. Per Next Gen Stats, his explosiveness has been his biggest strength, leading all players (min. 45 routes) with 0.35 EPA per route and a 12.2% explosive catch rate. His 19.1 yards per target also led all receivers with at least 10 targets this year.
Braelon Allen’s share rose the most by 15.6 points, Cooper’s fell 9.4 points from 25.0%, and Wilson’s 6.3 points. The snaps explain part of it: Cooper played 38 of 59 snaps (64%, from 82%), Wilson 50 (85%, from 98%), Mitchell 26 (44%), and Tim Patrick 7 (12%, from 69%), while the four tight ends took 96 snap slots.
Garrett Wilson’s squeaky-wheel game is coming this week.
Wilson caught just 2 of 3 official targets (4 true) for 26 yards (12.5%, from 18.8%). Snap share: 50 of 59 (85%), from 61 of 62 (98%) in Week 6 (−13 points). A third straight lower share (34.4%, 18.8%, 12.5%) with no first-half official target, though he still played 85% of the snaps.
Aaron Glenn took it personally when asked about Wilson’s lack of volume in Week 7. Both in his initial post-game presser and his Monday press conference, he spoke about making Wilson’s targets a top priority. A bounce-back is imminent.
Adonai Mitchell had 3 official targets (4 true) and no catches (12.5%; Week 6: Not Active). Snap share: 26 of 59 (44%); Not Active in Week 6. He started and had 4 true targets (0.15 per snap).
Allen had 24 of the backs’ 29 opportunities (82.8%; 70.4% in Week 6) on 17 carries for 104 yards and 7 targets for 30, with Breece Hall Not Active for a fourth straight week and Isaiah Davis at 4 (13.8%). He was ruled down at the MIA 1 on a 10-yard run (Q4 11:25), and the next three snaps (Beck −1, Allen −1, a sack for −12) ended in a field goal. He played 46 of 59 snaps (78%, from 87%) at 0.52 opportunities per snap (0.35 in Week 6), and Davis 13 (22%, from 13%). Allen carried 17 times for 104 yards (6.1) and caught 6 of 7 team-high targets for 30 (21.9% adjusted, from 6.3%). Snap share: 46 of 59 (78%), from 54 of 62 (87%) in Week 6 (−9 points). Isaiah Davis carried once for 5 and caught 3 of 3 for 49 (9.4%, from 3.1%). Snap share: 13 of 59 (22%), from 8 of 62 (13%) in Week 6 (+9 points). No action: three catches on three straight snaps of the last drive are a two-minute drill, and 4 opportunities on 13 snaps.
Expectation is that Hall will return in Week 8 (why the Jets didn’t put him on short-term IR is beyond me). But based on how well Allen has looked/played, he will have a part in this backfield, at least as a 1A. Also, great matchup on deck versus the Raiders. Makes both Jets RBs interesting trade targets given their value will likely fluctuate – although the Jets coaching staff has been very adamant about Hall remaining the team’s starter when he returns.
Mason Taylor caught 5 of 6 for 62 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus the two-point catch (18.8%, unchanged). Snap share: 37 of 59 (63%), from 34 of 62 (55%) in Week 6 (+8 points). The Jets TE owned a stable 18.8% share for the second straight week (0.16 targets per snap) and the red-zone target lead, on the most snaps of any Jets tight end, with the two touchdowns as efficiency on top of the role.
Per Next Gen Stats, in the last two weeks, Taylor’s 12 targets and 20.7% target share are tied with Omar Cooper Jr. for the team lead while his 36.4% red-zone target share comfortably leads the Jets. Taylor has seen six targets in each of his last two games, and his receptions, yardage totals, and fantasy points have gone up in each of his last four outings. However, his overall route participation (63%) is still rather low for a reliable fantasy tight end, so proceed with caution.
Kenyon Sadiq caught his one target for 6 (3.1%, from 9.4%). Snap share: 22 of 59 (37%), from 22 of 62 (35%) in Week 6 (+2 points). Ran a route on just 37.5% of the dropbacks.
Sell: one first-half catch on 22 snaps while Taylor took the volume. His role has been nuked since Taylor returned. The rookie can be dropped.
He’s sixth on the Jets in routes (44) since his blow-up Lions game and falling behind in targets(11); the other problem is that he has only caught four of them for 21 yards.
DT T’Vondre Sweat (knee) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Dolphins. Keep that in mind as it makes running on the Jets a much easier task (although the Raiders can’t run the ball on anyone).
Next four matchups (NYJ): Wk8 vs LV (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at KC (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs BUF (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 at LAC
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Chase Brown & Add Bengals DST
After trailing 13-0 at halftime, the Bengals outscored the Ravens 35-0 in the second half, scoring touchdowns on five consecutive drives en route to their Week 7 victory.
Joe Burrow threw for 292 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in Week 7, his second straight game with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions (Next Gen Stats). Each of those four touchdowns came with Burrow kept clean, as he completed 15 of 19 passes for 173 yards from a clean pocket across the game (NGS). Burrow’s point totals have increased in each of his six games this season. Not surprising given that we see this offense tend to start the season slow…and ramp up as the season progresses.
The majority of his Week 7 numbers came in the second half, as his 25.96 fantasy points in the third and fourth quarters were his most second-half points ever. He posted season-highs in passer rating (143.3), yards per attempt (9.7), EPA per dropback (0.51), passing success rate (62.5%), and completion percentage over expected (8.4%), according to Next Gen Stats.
Tee Higgins ran as many routes (29) and saw as many targets (7) as Ja’Marr Chase, but caught one more pass (6) and racked up over double the receiving yards (148) — each of them caught a touchdown as well. Higgins led the Bengals with 6 receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown on 7 targets in Week 7, his first game with at least 145 receiving yards and a touchdown catch since Week 11, 2024 (NGS). Snap share: 46 of 53 (87%), from 45 of 65 (69%) in Week 5 (+18 points).
Most of Higgins’ production came on post routes, where he caught three passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens’ cornerbacks were on the other end of most of his yardage, as Higgins caught three of four targets for 97 yards across 16 matchups against Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. His lone score came against safety Kyle Hamilton, a 13-yard touchdown. Higgins and CeeDee Lamb are the only players to have multiple games with at least 145 receiving yards in 2026. Week 7 was Higgins’ fourth game this season with at least 90 receiving yards — already more such games than he had in all of 2025 (3).
Chase caught 5 of 7 for 62 yards and a 2-yard touchdown (21.9%, from 31.3%). Snap share: 46 of 53 (87%).
Chase Brown had 16 of the backs’ 23 opportunities (69.6%, from 51.5% in Week 5) on 11 carries for 39 yards and 5 targets for 19, Perine 4 (17.4%, from 48.5%) for 16 yards and a 1-yard touchdown, and Tahj Brooks 3 (13.0%) for 6 yards on the last possession in garbage time.
The CIN backs had 4 red-zone carries for 11 yards and one touchdown (Perine’s, from the BLT 1 after a pass-interference spot); Brown’s closest carry ended at the BLT 2, and no Cincinnati player was ruled down at the 1. Brown played 40 of 53 snaps (75%; 60% in Week 5), Perine 12 (23%; 51%), Brooks 3 (6%), so Brown’s 16 opportunities came at 0.40 per snap and Perine’s 4 at 0.33.
Backfield went back to the typical 70-30 split between Perine/Brown, but Perine just vultured the TD. Brown has 3 GL carries in the last two games but hasn’t scored.
Brown was way more involved as a receiver and out-touched Perine 15-4. Without a true No. 3 WR…Brown’s role as a receiver should stay very strong (finished third in routes run among all Bengals).
Last chance to buy low on Brown with a juicy home matchup versus the Titans on deck. Brown leads all RBs in fantasy points scored under expectation (-21.5).
2025 RB would lead all RBs in fantasy points scored under expectation: Chase Brown (-27.2).
Erik All (knee) was ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s game against the Ravens. That’s the second tight end the Bengals have lost in as many games played before their bye week.
Drew Sample caught 2 of 2 official targets for 24 yards and a 16-yard touchdown (9.4% adjusted; 3 true targets and 28 yards). Snap share: 29 of 53 (55%), from 34 of 65 (52%) in Week 5 (+3 points).
Mike Gesicki (TE) caught his 1 target for 6 yards and a touchdown (6.3% adjusted; 2 true targets). Snap share: 20 of 53 (38%), from 29 of 65 (45%) in Week 5 (−7 points). Monitor: two games, two goal-line touchdowns on three official targets.
Mitchell Tinsley caught 1 for 7 yards (3.1%). Snap share: 18 of 53 (34%), from 13 of 65 (20%) in Week 5 (+14 points). Dohnte Meyers played more, 38% with one target on 18 snaps.
Next four matchups (CIN): Wk8 vs TEN (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs ATL (Neutral, Madrid, Sunday 11/8, 9:30 AM) | Wk10 vs PIT (Home, Sunday 11/15, 8:20 PM) | Wk11
Baltimore Ravens
Add Jakobi Lane & Buy Zay Flowers & Sell Mark Andrews & Derrick Henry
Week 7 marked the Ravens’ 10th loss over the last three seasons where their win probability reached at least 80%, two more than the next closest team (Next Gen Stats). And according to the game broadcast, the Ravens have blown 17 double-digit second-half leads since 2020. WOOF.
Tyler Huntley was 23-of-34 for 298 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception (92.5), sacked 4 times for 22 and ran 3 times for 12 (4 for 19 on the true line). That is 8.8 yards per attempt (5.3 in Week 6); he was 15-of-21 for 215 yards in the first half and 8-of-13 for 83 in the second, and the interception, and Baltimore scored nothing after Q2 00:53 with Lamar Jackson Not Active for a third straight week
Zay Flowers finished with team-highs in routes (38, season-high), targets (11, season-high), receptions (8), yards (137, his fourth-most ever) and his third touchdown of the season. He continues to be a monster after the catch, racking up a career-high 103 YAC on Sunday afternoon, the second-highest mark any WR has had this year. His +63 YAC over expected also set a career-high and was the most any player has posted in 2026 (Next Gen Stats).
Flowers led the target tree at 32.4% (11 targets for the second straight week; 8 catches, 137 yards and a 48-yard touchdown, 120 of the yards in the first half; from 35.5%), then Jakobi Lane at 14.7%, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and Justice Hill at 11.8% each.
Flowers played 57 of 67 snaps (85%), Rashod Bateman 49 (73%), and Lane 46 (69%), with Walker down to 20 (30%, from 59% in Week 5).
Guy is a monster (second in yards per route run this season), and I cannot wait to see what he can do with a healthy Lamar Jackson. Flowers has done so much of his damage in limited action this year – that it feels like he is just scratching the surface. Jackson (ankle), was ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Bengals, was considered close to playing this week and is “likely to return” to action Week 8 versus the Bills, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Zay Flowers and Lamar Jackson have had 67 snaps together so far this season.
Flowers has caught 16 passes for 353 yards on those plays.
That's 5.3 yards PER PLAY for the Jackson-Flowers combo. ???? pic.twitter.com/al9YXWGRU9
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 13, 2026
Zay Flowers had 120 receiving yards in the 1st half against the Bengals. That is the 3rd time he has had 110+ receiving yards in the 1st half this season
Flowers now has the most 110+ receiving yard 1st halves in a single season since at least 2016, per @SumerSports
— Shawn Syed (@SyedSchemes) October 25, 2026
Per Worm:
Only played in 4 halves with Lamar Jackson this season (only two with both healthy, if you take out limited snap game in Brazil)
- 5-150-1 first half Week 1
- 6-119-1 first half Week 4
- 6-120-1 first half Week 7
Those first two also were the only two fully healthy halves of the season with both him and Lamar, so essentially one complete game (again taking out limited snaps in Rio), and he went 11-269-2.
Lane caught 3 of 5 for 25 yards (14.7%, from 16.1%). Snap share: 46 of 67 (69%); Add the rookie with 5 targets for the second straight week, 0.11 per snap, four of them on third down, two red-zone targets. The big-bodied wideout tied Rashod Bateman in routes (74%) while seeing his snap share hit a season high (69%). Add him before Jackson comes back. He has leapfrogged Devontez Walker in the pecking order.
Mark Andrews caught 3 of 4 for 23 (11.8%, from 9.7%). Snap share: 38 of 67 (57%), from 55 of 76 (72%) in Week 5. Dude just doesn’t have it anymore.
Every pass and target looks like it takes so much effort – as opposed to some players looking like they are putting zero effort at all.
Also, with both rookie TEs back in the lineup, Andrews played a season-low in snaps and played his 5th consecutive game with under 30 receiving yards.
Derrick Henry had just four carries for 13 yards in the second half of the Ravens’ loss to the Bengals in Week 7, finishing the game with 17 carries for 45 yards and a 17.6% success rate (3 successful runs). He was stuffed twice at the CIN 11, and he had no touch after Q3 1:33.
Per Next Gen Stats: This marks the second consecutive week Henry has posted a rushing success rate below 25% (23.5% in Week 6 vs CLE). Henry had just one such game last season (14.3% in Week 12 vs NYJ).
Henry carried 17 times for 45 yards (2.6) and caught 1 of 2 for 4 (5.9%, from 3.2%). Snap share: 34 of 67 (51%). Hill carried 3 times for 7 and caught 3 of 4 for 26 (11.8%, from 9.7%; true line: 4 carries for 6). Snap share: 31 of 67 (46%).
Vega Ioane (knee) has been ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Bengals.
Worm warned us about selling high on Henry…and I think with yet another IOL injury, the sell remains the top action to take with the Big Dog.
Next four matchups (BLT): Wk8 at BUF (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs JAC (Home, Thursday 11/5, 8:15 PM) | Wk10 vs LAC (Home, Monday 11/16, 8:15 PM) | Wk11 at CAR (Road, Sunday 11/22, 1:00 PM).
San Francisco 49ers
Add/Hold Kaelon Black
Brock Purdy was 27-of-40 for 288 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions (75.8; 27-of-41 and 74.0 on the true line), sacked twice for 11 and used on 2 carries for 5 yards.
George Kittle totaled team-highs in targets (10, 24.4% target share), receptions (8), and receiving yards (88) across 34 routes run in Week 7 against the Falcons, including 47 yards after the catch via Next Gen Stats. Snap share: 60 of 66 (91%), from 55 of 62 (89%) in Week 6 (+2 points). 7 of Kittle’s 10 targets after halftime in a trailing script.
Despite the 49ers having just a 2.7% chance to win the game prior to the play, Kittle gained 22 yards before fumbling with 57 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, sealing the game for the Falcons. Coming off a torn Achilles suffered last season, Kittle (76.7%) is the only 49ers skill player (RB, WR & TE) to have played on more than three-quarters of his team’s offensive snaps this season (NGS).
Christian McCaffrey had a decent day as a rusher with 39 yards and a touchdown, including season-highs with 2.2 rush yards over expected per carry and a 71.4% rushing success rate. 14 opportunities against 26 came on 34 snaps (0.41 per snap; 0.49 in Week 6), and the 33-point snap drop is more than the 8 San Francisco snaps between the injury listing (Q2 12:04) and his return (Q3 8:53); even if he missed all 17 first-half snaps after his last touch (Q1 6:59) he played 34 of 49 (69%). He still scored on the 4th-and-1, caught the Q4 5:20 pass to the ATL 1.
But the sample size was small after suffering a thigh injury in the first half — Kaelon Black wound up with 12 carries to McCaffrey’s seven. Black carried 12 times for 63 yards and a 30-yard touchdown and caught 1 of 3 for −4 (7.3%, from 3.3%), losing a fumble. Snap share: 31 of 66 (47%), from 14 of 62 (23%) in Week 6 (+24 points).
15 opportunities on 31 snaps (0.48 per snap; 0.64 in Week 6), two stops at the ATL 1, 11 of his 12 carries in the first half, 3 opportunities after halftime and the lost fumble.
CMC continued to produce as a receiver, catching six of his seven targets (17.1%) for a season-high 61 yards on 23 routes.
The game plan coming in for the 49ers’ offense was to establish the run. San Francisco ran on 17 of its 28 first-half plays (60.7%) while leading by as many as 11, then on 6 of its 37 second-half plays (16.2%) while trailing.
It seems like McCaffrey avoided any serious injury, but fantasy managers should take no chances when it comes to rostering Black. He should not be dropped over bye weeks because we could all be shocked if, in two weeks, CMC is still not 100%. Don’t take the chance. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers make a play for another RB before the trade deadline (Tony Pollard perhaps as RB depth). Frees up CMC to be used more as a receiver.
The receiver snaps were Jordan Watkins 50 of 66 (76%; 76% in Week 6), Brandin Cooks 45 (68%; 52%), Jacob Cowing 26 (39%; 24%), and Christian Kirk 20 (30%; on no Week 6 list), who was not officially targeted (batted pass might have been going to Kirk).
Jordan Watkins’s 23-yard touchdown (Q4 11:48) was REVERSED on replay to an incompletion with San Francisco down 26-14. Watkins had 6 official targets (7 true) for 3 catches and 56 yards and a 23-yard touchdown reversed (17.1%, from 3.3%). Snap share: 50 of 66 (76%), the same as 47 of 62 (76%) in Week 6. All six official targets came after halftime with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel out, and Evans is expected back after the bye week (or at least has a chance to return along with Demarcus Robinson).
Next four matchups (SF): Wk8 BYE | Wk9 vs LV (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM) | Wk10 at DAL (Road, Sunday 11/15, 4:25 PM ET) | Wk11 vs MIN
Atlanta Falcons
Add Michael Penix Jr. & Hold Kyle Pitts
Atlanta won 29-20 while being out-gained 400 to 295 in net yards (4.7 per play on 63 plays to 6.2 on 65) and 26 first downs to 21, because it took the ball away four times (two interceptions and two fumbles), gave it away never, and scored 13 points off those turnovers
It was a season-high four turnovers in their Week 7 win over the 49ers, their first multi-turnover game of the season. According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons gained +41.8% win probability on these four turnovers, including two interceptions, both of which occurred when the Falcons sent four or fewer rushers. Despite blitzing on just 16.7% of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks (the unit’s lowest rate in a game this season), the Falcons pressured Purdy at a 57.0% rate when blitzing, their second-highest pressure rate when blitzing this season.
Penix’s productivity has been highlighted by tossing touchdowns — he has now thrown three touchdowns in consecutive games after never even logging multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back games previously in his young career.
He completed 25 of his 34 passes for 213 yards and those three scores, continuing his streak of reaching 200 passing yards in each of his starts this year. Posting career-bests in passer rating (109.1), yards per attempt (8.0), and completion percentage (66.7%) via Next Gen Stats.
Drake London led the tree at 27.8% adjusted (from 30.6%), then Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Jahan Dotson at 13.9% each.
Bijan Robinson had 25 of the backs’ 28 official opportunities (89.3%; 27 of 30, 90.0%, on the true line) and Khalil Herbert 3 (10.7%), against 73.3% in Week 6, with Brian Robinson Not Active. Bijan ran 20 times for 63 yards (3.2; 22 for 96, 4.4, on the true line) and caught 5 of 5 for 59 (including a 14-yard lateral) with no touchdown; the backs had 5 red-zone carries for 4 yards and no touchdown, and Herbert’s 19-yard catch (Q2 9:17, challenge upheld) ended at the SF 1 with Nick Muse scoring on the next snap. The backs’ snaps were Bijan Robinson 55 of 68 (81%; 78% in Week 6) and Herbert 11 (16%; not on the Week 6 game log).
Drake London caught 7 of 10 for 66 yards and a 21-yard touchdown (27.8% adjusted, from 30.6%). Snap share: 55 of 68 (81%), from 55 of 55 (100%) in Week 6 (−19 points). 10 targets for the second straight week, a 70% catch rate this time, and a touchdown.
Kyle Pitts caught 5 of 5 for 22 yards and a 5-yard touchdown (13.9%, from 19.4%). Snap share: 38 of 68 (56%), from 43 of 55 (78%) in Week 6 (−22 points).
A 100% catch rate and a touchdown on his only red-zone target, but 4.4 yards per target, the lowest share of the last four weeks, and a snap share below Charlie Woerner’s 72% are the caution flags to trust Pitts moving forward.
The Falcons TE has scored 4 TDs in the last 3 games with 5 catches in each game. But 22 yards was his lowest since Week 3 – and his route participation fell to 64%. Mentioned last week that Pitts had some decent matchups coming up, so he was worth holding onto for a few more weeks while the TDs run hot (no TE has performed more above expectation than Pitts over the last four games).
We know he has had success in the past versus the Bucs defense. But if you can package him with another piece to get a legitimate locked-and-loaded fantasy TE1…I think you make the deal.
Jahan Dotson caught 1 of 3 official targets (5 true) for 6 yards (13.9%, from 13.9%). Snap share: 38 of 68 (56%), from 47 of 55 (85%) in Week 6 (−29 points).
Next four matchups (ATL): Wk8 at TB (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs CIN (Neutral site, Madrid, Sunday 11/8, 9:30 AM) | Wk10 vs KC (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 BYE
Denver Broncos
Add Jonah Coleman
Denver out-gained Arizona 377 to 353 in net yards (6.7 per play on 56 plays to 4.7 on 75), made fewer first downs (18 to 24), converted 3 of 11 third downs to Arizona’s 5 of 17, and held the ball for 26:42 to 33:18, and neither team turned the ball over.
Bo Nix completed 11 of his 13 attempts under 10 air yards for 114 yards and a touchdown, completing just four of his 12 downfield attempts for 108 yards.
66.2% of Nix’s passing yards came after the catch, and Nix has now totaled 64.4% of his passing yards after the catch this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only Jalon Daniels (65.5%), according to Next Gen Stats. Nix completed 15 of his 29 passes for 222 yards and a touchdown, but the real production came from his legs, as 46.6% of his points came on a 62-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, the longest scramble touchdown in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). He finished with 73 yards on seven carries, his second-highest rushing total ever.
The Broncos tied a season-high with 30 points scored against the Cardinals in Week 7, posting 377 total yards of offense after entering the week with the NFL’s second-worst total offense, averaging only 252.2 total yards per game.
Jonah Coleman was a standout in his first game back since his injury. Week 3 was a Coleman breakout: Dobbins went down, and Coleman closed it out with 10 carries for 39 yards, the winning touchdown, and a 40% snap share.
In Week 7, the rookie RB carried 9 times for 54 yards and caught 2 of 2 for 15 yards, on 49% of the snaps. That’s 11 of Denver’s 22 backfield opportunities, 7 of the backs’ 10 second-half carries, and Dobbins fell to 23% of the snaps (from 52% in Week 6), trailing both Coleman and R.J. Harvey (26%).
Dobbins 6 (27.3%) and Harvey 5 (22.7%) rounded out the remaining backfield opportunities after Dobbins had 20 of 31 (64.5%) in Week 6 with Coleman still on injured reserve. Dobbins carried 6 times for 23 yards and a touchdown with no target (0.0%, from 10.3%; 8 carries for 40 yards on the true line).
Coleman drew praise from his HC Sean Payton post-game, who said the rookie RB added “juice” to the backfield and needs to get more touches (S/O @coachspeakindex). What could go wrong? Payton already seemed to backtrack his comments on getting Coleman more touches on Monday, saying, “Look, he played well…and it’s something that you earn.”
You can’t trust Payton, who has one of the worst track records of reliability when it comes to getting increased work, etc.
The only reason I bring this up is that I think Coleman might make for a nice “sell-high” if you can flip him for something a bit more stable. Even if he is the ‘best” Broncos RB ROS…what is that actually going to get you?
Dobbins still got the red-zone carry, and Harvey is still going to sprinkle in as a receiver out of the backfield. Again, Coleman had no red-zone or third-down passing work (even though he did play 45% of the third-down snaps).
And when you consider Dobbins’ true line of 8 carries for 40 yards, it does make the Coleman box score seem much less desirable. Dobbins led the carry total 8-6 before Coleman finished up the 4th quarter with three more carries on the Broncos’ last drive before kneel-downs (the veteran didn’t see another touch when Denver was up 30-13).
By half the backs had 11 first-half opportunities (Dobbins 4 carries for 20 yards; Coleman 4: 2 carries for 5 yards and 2 catches for 15; Harvey 3: 2 carries for 5 yards and a catch for 2) and 11 in the second (Coleman 7 carries for 49 yards; Dobbins 2 carries for 3 yards; Harvey 2: a carry for 1 and the 52-yard touchdown catch), so Coleman had 36.4% of the first-half opportunities and 63.6% of the second-half ones, in a half Denver led by 7 to 17 and ran 17 times.
The target tree was headlined by Jaylen Waddle 21.9% and Courtland Sutton 18.8%.
Waddle caught 4 of 7 targets for 48 yards (24.1% official/21.9% adjusted, from 24.1%). Snap share: 34 of 61 (56%), from 39 of 60 (65%). 7 true targets for the 3rd straight week…but no production again. Sutton caught 3 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 45 yards (17.2% official/18.8% adjusted, from 13.8%). Snap share: 43 of 61 (70%), from 46 (77%). Played the most snaps among the wide receivers and a pass interference that created Dobbins’s touchdown.
Marvin Mims caught 2 of 2 for 53 yards (6.9% official/6.3% adjusted, from 13.8%) and carried once for 3. Snap share: 16 of 61 (26%), from 16 (27%).
But Waddle didn’t return to Sunday’s 30-16 win over the Cardinals due to a chest injury on a botched end-around play, Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post reports.
Without Waddle, I’d expect more targets for the RBs and TEs (with a jumble of WRs playing more).
DE Zach Allen suffered a hamstring injury in Sunday’s 30-16 win over the Cardinals.
Next four matchups (DEN): Wk8 vs KC (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 at CAR (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 BYE | Wk11 vs LV
Arizona Cardinals
Add Bam Knight & Sell Michael Wilson & Add Kendrick Bourne
Jacoby Brissett was 27-of-48 for 272 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions (79.5; 28-of-53 for 284 yards on the true line), sacked three times for 13 and used on 7 carries for 16 yards.
Brissett also looked like he hurt his wrist/had at the end of the second quarter.
The target tree was led by Trey McBride 32.1%, followed by Michael Wilson 17.0% and Kendrick Bourne 11.3%.
Bam Knight had 12 of the backs’ 23 opportunities (52.2%) and Allgeier 11 (47.8%), after Allgeier had 20 of 37 (54.1%) in Week 6. Knight’s snaps were 43 of 81 (53%; 44% in Week 6) and Allgeier’s 38 (47%; 56%).
Knight carried 7 times for 48 yards and caught 3 of 5 for 15 (10.4% official/9.4% adjusted target share, from 5.6%). Snap share: 43 of 81 (53%), from 32 of 72 (44%). After the snap share rose to 53%, he took 5 of the backs’ 8 targets, and the 29-yard and 15-yard runs gained 44 of his 48 yards.
Tyler Allgeier carried 8 times for 19 yards and caught 3 of 3 for 30 (6.3% official/5.7% adjusted, from 5.6%). Snap share: 38 of 81 (47%), from 40 of 72 (56%). Monitor (Week 6 was Hold): 11 of the backs’ 23 opportunities and a 22-yard catch, but 2.4 per carry, a falling snap share, and no goal-line touches.
Arizona’s backs had 4 red-zone carries for 0 yards and no touch on any of the seven snaps from the DEN 1 to the DEN 5, while Jeremiyah Love was Not Active for a second straight week (an ankle injury).
The last two weeks, the opportunities have been close to a 50/50 split between Knight (29) and Allgeier (31), but Knight has done so much more with his touches.
Knight has 22 carries for 128 yards (5.8 YPC) versus TA’s 26 carries for 57 yards (2.2 YPC).
Knight also out-targeted Allgeier 5-3 (the former of whom ran more routes). The backfield is leaning more into Bam.
Love is expected to practice this week…so keep that in mind. Mike LaFleur said Bam would still have a role even if the rookie returns. That actually might suggest Allgeier’s role completely evaporates (or this becomes a three-headed monster).
McBride (TE) caught 10 of 13 official targets (11 of 17 true) for 111 yards (123 true) and a 7-yard touchdown (27.1% official/32.1% adjusted, from 25.0%). Snap share: 75 of 81 (93%). 2 goal-line targets that drew pass interference show where the offense goes at the 1; the caution is the script (31 second-half attempts) and one touchdown on 6 true red-zone targets.
Michael Wilson (WR) caught 4 of 8 official targets (9 true) for 55 yards and ran twice for 11 (16.7% official/17.0% adjusted, from 19.4%). Snap share: 73 of 81 (90%), from 66 of 72 (92%). 90% of the snaps, 7 of his 8 targets in the second half, and three goal-line looks make a starter’s role to hold, while 6.9 yards per target and no catch on the goal-line series are the case for Wilson as a sell, as he continues to just disappoint even with the grand opportunity he is receiving.
Dallas up next “should” be the best spot for him. But he’s disappointed in great matchups. If you want to hold one more week, do it…but be wary that Seattle/Rams are Weeks 9-10. Rather get out now behind the “hope” he crushes Dallas.
Over the last few weeks, Wilson has looked like a guy miscast as the team’s No. 1 WR.
Kendrick Bourne (WR) caught 3 of 6 for 9 yards (12.5% official/11.3% adjusted, from 25.0%). Snap share: 45 of 81 (56%), from 41 of 72 (57%).
Jalen Brooks (WR) caught 1 of 6 for 35 yards (12.5% official/11.3% adjusted, from 8.3%). He continues to see a ton of action in the red zone (3 end-zone targets last three games) to no avail. But he also suffered a wrist injury that will force him to miss the rest of the season. Kendrick Bourne could see a bump in his absence.
Next four matchups (ARZ): Wk8 at DAL (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at SEA (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM) | Wk10 vs LAR (Home, Sunday 11/15, 4:05 PM) | Wk11 at KC
Los Angeles Rams
Buy Blake Corum & Terrance Ferguson
Los Angeles won 35-21 because it scored a touchdown on every one of its five red-zone trips (5-for-5, 3-for-3 on goal-to-go) while Las Vegas was 1-for-5 and 0-for-0 on goal-to-go, and because four of LA’s five touchdown drives came before halftime.
Las Vegas gave the ball away zero times and Los Angeles twice, and the Rams still won by 14, because the Raiders’ possessions kept ending without points inside the 20 or just outside it.
Matthew Stafford averaged 4.9 air yards per attempt against the Raiders, his second consecutive game averaging under 5 air yards after he had not done so in 23 consecutive games prior. Stafford was 23-of-29 for 195 yards and three touchdowns with one interception (114.8; 23-of-31 for 195 yards on the true line), sacked once for 8.
Stafford completed 21 of 23 passes under 10 air yards for 165 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. When not pressured, the Rams QB was a perfect 19-for-19 for 155 yards and all three scores on underneath passes (Next Gen Stats). His passing volume was a script number on a team that led by 22 through the third quarter.
The Rams rushed for a season-high 201 yards and two touchdowns in their Week 7 win over the Raiders.
Their 60.0% rushing success rate is a season high and the fourth-highest by a team in a game this season.
Kyren Williams (99 rush yards, 1 TD) and Blake Corum (93 rush yards, 1 TD) both finished with 90+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in Week 7.
Williams and Corum each had 18 of the backs’ 36 official opportunities (50.0% each; Williams 59.3% and Corum 40.7% in Week 6). Williams ran 16 times for 99 yards and a touchdown and caught 2 of 2 for 22; Corum ran 17 times for 93 yards and a touchdown and caught 1 of 8 (19 carries for 138 yards and three touchdowns on the true line). The backs’ snaps were Williams 37 of 72 (51%; 72% in Week 6) and Corum 32 (44%; 28%).
Williams’ snap share fell 21 points, and his share of the backs’ opportunities fell 9.3, but the count rose (16 to 18) on a 38-carry team outing. He also had the two-minute drive and the closing drive, and he carries a Positive TD Regression tag from the Q2 11:01 carry ruled down at the LV 1. Also lost a fumble (Q3 8:39).
Two Corum touchdown runs were erased by penalty (a 2-yarder after holding, Q1 7:10, and a 43-yarder after a face mask call). Corum’s snaps doubled; he had 50.0% of the backs’ opportunities (51.3% true), 6 red-zone carries (7 true), and the Rams’ only fourth-quarter touchdown.
The target tree was Puka Nacua 32.3%, Colby Parkinson 19.4%, Davis Allen 16.1%, Tyler Higbee 9.7%. Nacua caught 8 of 10 targets for 68 yards and an 11-yard touchdown and carried twice for 10 (34.5% official/32.3% adjusted target share, from 23.5%). Snap share: 61 of 72 (85%), from 52 of 58 (90%) in Week 6. The team’s largest share (up 8.8 points) on 85% of the snaps with Adams out, but 8 of the 10 targets came before halftime, and the Rams threw only 10 times after it.
Colby Parkinson caught 5 of 6 for 48 yards (20.7% official/19.4% adjusted, from 17.6%). Snap share: 50 of 72 (69%), from 36 of 58 (62%). A steady 6-target role (second straight week with 6 targets), no touchdown, hurt twice and returned both times, and the target on the only interception.
Davis Allen caught 4 of 5 for 20 yards and two touchdowns (17.2% official/16.1% adjusted, from 0.0%). Snap share: 50 of 72 (69%), from 18 of 58 (31%). The snap jump was real, and the 5 targets are a role, but completely touchdown-driven from the 3 and the 5 on 20 yards, and Terrance Ferguson’s return makes chasing any Rams tight end too aggressively a malpractice.
Case in point…
Tyler Higbee caught 2 of 3 for 14 yards (10.3% official/9.7% adjusted, from 11.8%). Snap share: 53 of 72 (74%), from 48 of 58 (83%).
Higbee played the most snaps of the three tight ends but had the fewest targets, with one gain of note (a 15-yard third-down conversion).
In terms of routes: Higbee led the way, but his route participation cratered to 53% (likely due to the heavy run-game script).
Higbee seemed like the most trustworthy Rams TE after stringing together for a few good weeks, but the trio of TEs seeing targets makes him tougher to trust after back-to-back duds. Been out-targeted by Parkinson 12-7 in the last 2 games.
In the long run, I still want to add/buy Terrance Ferguson. Ferguson (ankle) isn’t expected to be ready to return after his four-game stint on injured reserve (November 1st). Great schedule ROS for TEs as well. I still like trading for him as a contender in the second half of the season.
Konata Mumpfield caught 1 of 2 official targets (3 true) for 15 yards (6.9% official/9.7% adjusted, from 8.8%). Snap share: 31 of 72 (43%), from 27 of 58 (47%).
TuTu Atwell (25 snaps, 35%; no target, led the non-Nacua WRs in routes run).
Next four matchups (LAR): Wk8 vs LAC (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM) | Wk9 at WAS (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 at ARI (Road, Sunday 11/15, 4:05 PM) | Wk11 BYE
Las Vegas Raiders
Hold Ashton Jeanty & Add Mike Washington & Tre Tucker
Kirk Cousins was 26-of-44 for 295 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions (94.4; 27-of-47 for 297 yards on the true line), sacked twice for 6 yards and used on 3 carries for 6 yards.
The target tree was Tre Tucker 27.1%, Brock Bowers 18.8%, Ashton Jeanty 18.8%, Jalen Nailor 10.4%.
Ashton Jeanty had 16 of the backs’ 23 official opportunities (69.6%; 57.1% in Week 6) and Washington 7 (30.4%; 35.7%). Jeanty ran 8 times for 15 yards (1.9 per carry, WOOF) and caught 8 of 8 for 61 yards and a 15-yard touchdown (LFG); Washington ran 6 times for 27 yards (a 21-yard carry and five for 6).
The backs’ snaps were Jeanty 49 of 68 (72%; 58% in Week 6) and Washington 18 (26%; 35%), with Dylan Laube logging zero offensive snaps.
Jeanty’s snap share rose 14 points and his share of the backs’ opportunities 12.5 to 69.6%, all through the passing game, but 1.9 per carry and four carries of a yard or less make this a receiving-back role on a trailing team as the run game continues to struggle.
Per Next Gen Stats, Jeanty posted season-lows with 15 yards on his eight carries. But he had one of his best receiving games to date, tying a career-high with eight catches on as many targets for 61 yards — his second-most ever — and a touchdown. Las Vegas’ called run rate has essentially decreased in each passing week this season (their only week-over-week increase was going from 29.8% in Week 5 to 32.8% in Week 6), ranking as the NFL’s second-most pass-happy offense since Week 4 (70.0% called pass rate in that span).
Jeanty’s carries have dropped every single game dating back to Week 1 (10 in Weeks 5+6).
Washington’s snap share fell 9 points; he had 4 second-half carries, and 78% of his yards came on one run (entered the game very much questionable with an injury).
Tre Tucker caught 5 of 12 official targets (13 true) for 103 yards and a 37-yard touchdown (26.7% official/27.1% adjusted target share, from 19.6%). Snap share: 56 of 68 (82%), from 46 of 66 (70%) in Week 6. 82% of the snaps and the highest targets per snap among the regulars (0.23), a second straight 20-plus-PPR week and a trailing script; 78 of the 103 yards came on two third-down catches, and he caught only 5 of 12 throws. If the Raiders continue to throw at an extremely high clip…Tucker will keep producing.
Brock Bowers caught 6 of 8 official targets (9 true) for 73 yards (17.8% official/18.8% adjusted, from 23.9%). Snap share: 57 of 68 (84%), from 65 of 66 (98%). A fantasy TE1 workload with 6 catches, but the share fell 5.1 points, the snaps 14, and he had no official red-zone target.
Michael Mayer caught 3 of 3 for 32 yards (6.7% official/6.3% adjusted, from 19.6%). Snap share: 56 of 68 (82%), from 52 of 66 (79%). No first-half target and 3 second-half catches on a steady 82% of the snaps.
Jalen Nailor caught 2 of 5 targets for 14 yards (11.1% official/10.4% adjusted, from 10.9%). Snap share: 51 of 68 (75%), from 42 of 66 (64%). A starter’s snaps and a steady 10% of the targets with a reversed 16-yarder and two red-zone misses.
I posed this question on the Tailgate Week 7 review show.
“Are we on Fernando Mendoza watch?”
Klint Kubiak was asked after the team’s fourth straight loss whether thoughts about the future would be considered (via ESPN).
“We have to go watch the film,” Kubiak said after a 35-21 loss to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. “I think at this point, we’re thinking about everything to fix our problems, how to fix our issues in the red zone, in the third quarter, personnel [and] scheme. We’ve got to talk about all of it.”
Keep in mind that Kirk Cousins leads the NFL in passing TDs through 7 games (16).
And the Raiders defense has been the bigger problem against tougher offenses over the last four weeks. Since Week 4, the unit has allowed an average of 35.8 points and 416.5 yards per game.
The offensive ground game has also been BUNS. “You can’t win in this league having to throw it as much as we are throwing,” Kubiak said. “If there’s no balance, then you are playing from behind.”
The Jets, Niners, Seattle, Denver, Browns, Chargers round out the schedule…which doesn’t encourage an idea of a QB change.
Kubiak double-downed on Cousins being the starter, citing the team has a plan for Mendoza. He will play at some point – but not this week.
Jack Bech is also expected to return to practice.
One of the toughest schedules ROS for fantasy QBs.
Next four matchups (LV): Wk8 at NYJ (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at SF (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM) | Wk10 vs SEA (Home, Sunday 11/15, 4:05 PM) | Wk11 at DEN
Detroit Lions
Sell Jameson Williams
Detroit won 20-17 on a 22-yard field goal at Q4 00:01, in regulation (no overtime), after out-gaining Green Bay 415 net yards to 324 (6.3 per play on 66 plays to 5.0 on 65) and making 26 first downs to 17, even though possession was level split (30:01 to 29:59).
Green Bay was 3-for-4 on fourth down to Detroit’s 0-for-2, and Detroit lost two fumbles. Detroit led 7-0, was tied at 7-7, led 10-7 at the half, trailed 14-10 for 5:42 of the third quarter, led 17-14, was tied at 17-17 (Smack’s 43-yard field goal, Q4 7:14) and won on its last snap. Green Bay threw 45 passes (274 yards, two touchdowns and an interception) and ran 19 times for 60 yards, and Detroit threw 32 (303 yards, two touchdowns) and ran 33 times for 119, 23 of them after halftime.
The turning points were Green Bay’s opening drive that stopped at the DET 3 and ended in a missed 26-yarder (after a delay of game), Gibbs’ fumble at the GB 8 that ended an 85-yard drive with 30 seconds left in the half, the aborted snap (Q3 14:16) that Green Bay turned into a 25-yard touchdown, Detroit’s failed 4th-and-5 at the GB 6 (Q3 1:09), Love’s 3rd-and-21 interception after his own intentional grounding (Q4 14:50), Detroit’s failed 4th-and-1 at its own 24 (Q4 4:53), a blocked 35-yarder (Q4 3:25) and Detroit’s 10-play, 71-yard last drive, in which Green Bay used its three timeouts and gave up a roughing-the-passer penalty (Q4 2:45) and a neutral zone infraction (Q4 2:00).
Jared Goff had 303 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his Week 7 win against the Packers. The Lions QB was 13-of-17 for 204 yards and a touchdown in the first half (135.4) and 9-of-15 for 99 yards and a touchdown in the second (101.8), and 122 of his 303 yards came on four completions of 24 or more yards.
Nearly all of his production came against zone coverage, where he completed 20 of 25 passes for 289 yards and a touchdown (+13.5% CPOE). Man coverage gave him far more trouble, as Goff completed just two of seven passes for 14 yards and a touchdown (-20.8% CPOE). On in-breaking routes, Goff completed 10 of 15 passes for 199 yards and a touchdown (per Next Gen Stats).
Jameson Williams caught 5 of his 9 targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers; he recorded a season-low 11.8 air yards per target on a season-high 33.3% target rate.
Williams recorded just 27 routes run against the Packers, his second-fewest this season (Week 5 vs. Cardinals, 26), though he did record a season-high 3.4 yards per route run. Three of Williams’ five receptions today came on crossing routes, tallying 70 yards and one touchdown (Next Gen Stats).
The premise of the Jamo sell from last week (two catches, both touchdowns, on a 12.9% share) did not repeat, since he had 9 targets and a 26.5% share on 84% of the snaps, but two touchdowns again and two failed looks inside the 10 suggests he’s more of a hold than screaming sell. That being said, this is pretty typical Jamo production – high highs and low lows – so if you haven’t sold high on him yet…this would still be the perfect time to do so. Vikings up next. Sam LaPorta won’t see two targets every week (unless the team was punishing him for the comments he made about breaking his back for the team on a podcast). Speaking of which…
LaPorta caught 1 of 2 official targets (3 true) for 18 yards (8.8% adjusted, from 16.1%). Snap share: 66 of 68 (97%), from 59 of 66 (89%). 97% of the snaps for 3 true targets and none in the first half; one 18-yard catch set up the winning field goal.
St. Brown caught 9 of 11 official targets for 153 yards (35.3% adjusted on 12 true targets, from 38.7%). Snap share: 53 of 68 (78%), from 57 of 66 (86%). 12 true targets and 153 yards, 68 of them on two first-half plays, with 8 targets in the first half.
St. Brown caught 7 of 9 targets for 109 yards from a wide alignment in Week 7 against the Packers, the second-most yards from a wide alignment in his career. St. Brown was noticeably used downfield, tying career highs in targets (8) and receptions (6) on passes traveling 10+ air yards. His 131 yards on downfield targets (10+ air yards) was the 2nd-most in a game in his career (NGS).
Jahmyr Gibbs recorded a 48.3% rush success rate despite having a career-low -24 rushing yards before contact. Of the 19 other games where a running back had -20 or fewer rushing yards before contact since 2018, the average success rate was 21.7% and no other running back exceeded a 40% success rate. Gibbs forced 10 missed tackles on the ground, tying a career high, and gained 43 yards across his 20 carries when he was hit behind the line of scrimmage (Next Gen Stats).
Gibbs had 35 of the backs’ 36 opportunities (97.2%; the same on the true line) and Sione Vaki 1 (2.8%), against 83.8% and 16.2% in Week 5. Gibbs carried 29 times for 116 yards (4.0) and caught 5 of 6 for 27 on 90% of the snaps (70% in Week 5), 20 of the carries after halftime, and lost a fumble at GB’s 8 on the last drive of the first half. And unfortunately, Gibbs failed to find the end zone for the first time all season – ending our Gibbs anytime TD streak at six games. Seeing him give himself up at the end of the game just a few yards short of the end zone…more pain.
Next four matchups (DET): Wk8 vs MIN (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at MIA (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 vs NE (Neutral – Munich, Sunday 11/15, 9:30 AM ET; New England is the designated home team) | Wk11 vs TB
Green Bay Packers
Buy Matthew Golden & Hold Josh Jacobs
Jordan Love was 27-of-45 for 274 yards with two touchdowns and one interception (83.0; 27-of-47 on the true line, 79.6), was sacked once for 10, and had no carry. That is 6.1 yards per attempt on a 60.0% completion rate (6.7 and 56.1% in Week 6); he was 16-of-26 for 191 yards and a touchdown in the first half (96.8) and 11-of-19 for 83 yards, a touchdown and the interception in the second (64.1), and was 7-of-14 for 85 yards on third down with both touchdowns.
Josh Jacobs recorded 55 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown to go along with 36 rushing yards in his 2026 debut in Week 7 against the Lions. In his 2026 debut, Jacobs had 18 of the backs’ 26 official opportunities (69.2%; 18 of 28, 64.3%, on the true line), Lloyd 8 (30.8%; 10, 35.7%), and Pierre Strong none against Strong’s 63.0%, Lloyd’s 33.3%, and Kaleb Johnson’s 3.7% back in Week 6. Jacobs carried 11 times for 36 yards (3.3) and caught 5 of 7 for 55 yards and a 25-yard touchdown.
Jacobs played 35 of 67 snaps (52%) in his first game back and was the target on five of Green Bay’s 15 third downs; Strong’s snaps fell from 55% to 12%.
Jacobs has recorded a receiving touchdown in 2 of his last 4 games after having just 1 total receiving touchdown over his first 102 career games (Next Gen Stats). Also earned three of the backs’ four red-zone carries and 7 of their 9 targets on 52% of the snaps; the efficiency is the soft part (2.6 per carry outside one 10-yard run and no goal-line score).
Jacobs’ return didn’t change the fortune of the Packers’ rushing efficiency (the offensive line is in shambles), but it looked to me that he did provide some juice as both a ball carrier and pass-catcher. 18 opportunities and turning them into 91 yards, each of which set single-game highs for the position this year in Green Bay (Next Gen Stats).
Jacobs’ return took the lead work, but Lloyd kept 30.8% of the backs’ opportunities as the clear second back in Green Bay.
There’s always a chance that Jacobs gets suspended if the NFL gets their hands on the video, so he’s always a “sell-high “ candidate…but nobody can pinpoint if/when that might happen. Probably safe to hold onto him until Thursday night when GB takes on the Panthers. GB remained pass-heavy last week (+6.4% PROE), but we shall see if that sticks.
Matthew Golden led the tree at 25.5% adjusted (12 targets), then Christian Watson at 17.0%, Josh Jacobs at 14.9%, Tucker Kraft at 12.8%, and MarShawn Lloyd at 8.5%.
Golden caught 6 of 12 targets for 39 yards (25.5% adjusted, from 31.8%). Snap share: 57 of 67 (85%), from 63 of 75 (84%). 12 targets on 85% of the snaps is still the team’s top volume, and two failed targets inside the 10 with no touchdown are the regression signal (especially with another week plagued with drops). Buy. Golden has nearly 250 incomplete air yards and 5 red-zone targets in the last two games (15 targets).
WR4 in expected PPG.
Christian Watson caught 5 of 8 for 57 yards (17.0% adjusted, from 18.2%). Snap share: 54 of 67 (81%), from 66 of 75 (88%). Still operated in the No. 2 role behind Golden in terms of raw volume, though 28 of his 57 yards were one-fourth-down catches, so keep the sell-high in mind. Even though Watson has 8 targets in three straight games…his target share has decreased in three straight games.
Schedule gets tougher over the next few weeks.
Tucker Kraft caught 4 of 6 for 48 yards and a 14-yard touchdown (12.8% adjusted, from 18.2%). Snap share: 59 of 67 (88%), from 58 of 75 (77%). 88% of the snaps and the touchdown are the role, but 6 targets, none after Q3 1:04, and 43 of his 48 yards came in the first quarter.
Savion Williams caught 3 of 3 for 47 yards and ran twice for 4 (6.4% adjusted, from 11.4%). Snap share: 40 of 67 (60%), from 40 of 75 (53%). Another week where Williams has been operating in the “Jayden Reed” role as the third receiver on 60% of the snaps, with two big catches that were conversions on 3 targets.
But two more interior Green Bay offensive line injuries.
Sean Rhyan (ankle) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s matchup with the Lions. Jacob Monk (quadriceps) was also listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Lions.
Next four matchups (GB; Eastern time): Wk8 vs CAR (Home, Thursday 10/29, 8:15 PM ET) | Wk9 at NE (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM ET) | Wk10 vs MIN (Home, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM ET) | Wk11 BYE.
Kansas City Chiefs
Add Cyrus Allen & Sell Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes was 19-of-33 for 165 yards with no touchdown and one interception (58.3; 21-of-35 for 192 yards on the true line), sacked once for 2 yards, and used on 2 carries for 14 yards. That is 5.0 yards per attempt on a 57.6% completion rate (9.1 and 76.7% in Week 6, also with no touchdown pass); he was 8-of-15 for 68 yards and the interception in the first half and 11-of-18 for 97 yards in the second. Kansas City never snapped the ball inside the Seattle 27 (0-for-0 in the red zone), was 3-of-11 on third down, and punted 3 times, and its only points were a 50-yard field goal, with misses from 58 (short) and 45 (wide right).
The target tree was led by Travis Kelce at 22.9% followed by Kenneth Walker 20.0%, and Xavier Worthy 17.1%.
Walker had 19 of the backs’ 22 official opportunities (86.4%; 22 of 25 true, 88.0%) and Emmett Johnson 3 (13.6%), against 78.6% and 21.4% in Week 6.
Walker ran 14 times for just 36 yards (2.6; 15 for 42 true) and caught 4 of 5 for 21 (6 of 7 for 48 true) on 39 snaps (74%, flat), with three plays erased after they ran (a 12-yard catch for Kelce’s illegal shift, a 15-yard catch for offsetting fouls and a 6-yard run for holding).
Snaps: Worthy 46 of 53 (87%), Kelce 44 (83%), Walker 39 (74%), Jalen Royals 36 (68%), Andrew Armstrong 31 (58%), Noah Gray 28 (53%), Cyrus Allen 16 (30%).
Kelce’s snap share came back 17 points from 66% (hit a season-high in route participation at 97%), Allen’s doubled from 15%, and Gray (−11) and Armstrong (−11) lost playing time.
Kelce caught 4 of 8 targets for 44 yards (22.9% adjusted, from 18.2%). Snap share: 44 of 53 (83%), from 40 of 61 (66%) in Week 6. The 37-year-old tight end saw the team’s most targets and the highest snap share in two weeks, with both of his third-down catches converting, but 5.5 yards per target and no first-half catch suggest the opportunity is steady, but the efficiency still leaves a lot to be desired.
Kelce has two top-8 finishes this season. Last 3 games outside the top-18 weekly finishes. Outside the top-10 in targets per game among TEs.
Tough schedule ROS. Valued as the TE8-10 in the ROS rankings. Not to mention, the Chiefs seem to also be in the market for a pass-catcher given the current state of the passing game.
Worthy caught 3 of 6 targets for 11 yards (17.1% adjusted, from 21.2%). Snap share: 46 of 53 (87%), from 51 of 61 (84%). Worthy remains the most-targeted Kansas City wide receiver on 87% of the snaps.
Gray caught 3 of 3 for 44 yards (8.6% adjusted, from 9.1%). Snap share: 28 of 53 (53%), from 39 of 61 (64%). Perfect on targets again, but 3 targets are 8.6% of the attempts, and the snap share fell as Kelce came back to 83%.
Jalen Royals was targeted twice with no catch; one of them was an interception (5.7% adjusted, from 12.1%). Snap share: 36 of 53 (68%), from 45 of 61 (74%). 68% of the snaps as a starter produced two targets and no second-half targets.
Cyrus Allen caught 1 of 2 targets for 18 yards (5.7% adjusted, from 9.1%). Snap share: 16 of 53 (30%), from 9 of 61 (15%). The playing time and routes (29.4%) you wanted to see for the rookie did rise (double Week 6’s share), but the targets did not (2, with the target share down 3.4 points), and Royals/Armstrong still played ahead of him. Even so…back-to-back weeks Allen has out-produced Royals. And still very much TBD if/when Rashee Rice will return from his hamstring injury.
Next four matchups (KC): Wk8 at DEN (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 vs NYJ (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 at ATL (Road, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM) | Wk11 vs ARI
Seattle Seahawks
Hold Emanuel Wilson & Add AJ Barner & Buy Zach Charbonnet
Seattle won 20-3 because it controlled the ball and Kansas City never reached red-zone scoring range: Seattle out-gained Kansas City 410 net yards to 213 (5.9 per play on 69 plays to 4.3 on 50), held the ball 35:51 to 24:09, converted 11 of 16 third downs to 3 of 11 and ran 41 times to Kansas City’s 16, while Kansas City never snapped the ball inside the Seattle 27-yard line and scored only on a 50-yard field goal after missing FG attempts from the 58 and 45.
Seattle’s own day was uneven where it counted (0-for-3 in the red zone, an end-zone interception, both touchdowns from outside the 20), but the usage was clear: Jaxson Smith-Njigba drew 42.9% of the team’s total targets, and Emanuel Wilson was the lead back with 67.6% of the backs’ opportunities.
Smith-Njigba caught 9 of 12 targets for 150 yards and a 28-yard touchdown.
To put into context how elite JSN is playing right now. Get this.
Per Next Gen Stats: He leads the league in several categories, including receiving yards (867), receiving touchdowns (8), target rate (35.6%, min. 100 routes), target share (36.3%) and air yards share (51.3%) — each of those last two would be the highest marks by a player since at least 2016.
Sam Darnold completed 20 of his 28 pass attempts for 257 yards, a touchdown and an interception in Week 7 against the Chiefs. Darnold posted a 2.45-second average time to throw, his third-quickest in a game in his career, while facing pressure on just 26.7% of his dropbacks, his lowest rate in a game this season according to Next Gen Stats.
Darnold was nearly perfect when getting the ball out quickly (under 2.5 seconds), completing 13 of 14 such attempts for 149 yards and a touchdown. When holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, he completed seven of 13 passes for 108 yards with an interception.
Wilson had 25 of the backs’ 37 opportunities (67.6%), George Holani 7 (18.9%), and Velus Jones 5 (13.5%), against 60.0%, 20.0%, and 20.0% in Week 6.
Wilson ran 24 times for 100 yards (4.2) and a 21-yard touchdown and caught his one target for 15, on 33 snaps (48%, from 32%), with 11 of Seattle’s 13 fourth-quarter carries.
Holani played 25 snaps (36%, from 58%) and had no carry after Q2 00:30. Zach Charbonnet was not active, although it seemed like he was close to returning.
Jadarian Price is also expected to return in Week 8 (eligible to come off the IR).
But Wilson’s surprise start is the exact reason why you wait until these injured guys prove they are healthy before cutting bait. So even though we are all expecting Price/Charbonnet back for Week 8…no guarantees. Hold Wilson until further notice.
As for Charbs…I feel the same way I did last week.
“I didn’t draft Charbonnet at all based on the timeline with his ACL injury. Obviously, if you did take him late and stashed him this long, you want to reap some rewards. I’d imagine he will be tough to trust from Week 7, but Week 8 and 9 look like decent spots for Seattle’s offense to be productive. But again, Price can also come back before these games.
Based on what we saw from Charbonnet last year, I’d expect him to be the main bruiser RB with red-zone equity, with Price providing the speed to the backfield. Now it remains to be seen how the veteran will actually “look” off his ACL injury, but I think he’s going to see volume given how much the team adores him. Meanwhile, Price is facing an uphill battle – he had a chance to cement his RB1 status with Charbonnet injured to start the year. And with injuries and fumbling, he let that chance slip. ROS, I think I’d rather ride Charbonnet (especially with his stock continuing to rise in my opinion). Obviously, the manager who owns Charbs values him…so acquiring him in a trade before he plays probably won’t work. But as rosters need shifting with him in a ton of IR slots…maybe you can still strike a deal with the Charbs manager to free up a roster space.”
Snaps in Week 7: AJ Barner 55 of 69 (80%), Smith-Njigba 53 (77%), Kupp 45 (65%), Tory Horton 31 (45%).
Barner caught 4 of 5 targets for 42 yards and took 3 direct snaps for 4 yards (17.9% adjusted, from 7.7%, also his second-highest target share of the season). He might see a bump in targets without Shaheed. Only Kupp ran more routes than Barner among non-JSN Seahawks players. Decent matchups coming up for Seattle’s TE that also has red-zone TD appeal with the Barnyard “Push” in short-yardage situations. Among tight ends, Barner ranks 7th in route participation.
Rashid Shaheed (knee) didn’t return to Sunday’s game against the Chiefs (missed entire fourth quarter).
OT Charles Cross exited Sunday night’s game against the Chiefs with an ankle injury and did not return. In a corresponding move to improve the OL…Seattle traded future draft picks for Colts’ OG Quenton Nelson.
Massive boost for the ground game.
RB/WR Velus Jones (hamstring) was also ruled out for the remainder of Sunday night’s contest against the Chiefs.
Next four matchups (SEA): Wk8 vs CHI (Home, Monday 11/2, 8:15 PM) | Wk9 vs ARI (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM) | Wk10 at LV (Road, Sunday 11/15, 4:05 PM) | Wk11 BYE
Dallas Cowboys
Sell Jake Ferguson & Hold George Pickens
Dallas won 38-21 because it out-gained Philadelphia 416 to 321 in net yards (6.4 per play on 65 plays to 5.2 on 62), made 25 first downs to 23, went 8-of-13 on third down to 5-of-12, ran 38 times for 204 yards (5.4) against 25 for 121 and never gave the ball away, while Philadelphia threw one interception and was shut out in the fourth quarter.
The game script is the context for the second-half usage: Dallas dropped back on 23.1% of its second-half plays (6 of 26) and handed Javonte Williams 15 second-half carries (11 in the fourth quarter), while Philadelphia, trailing on all 9 of its drives, dropped back on 66.7% of its second-half plays (24 of 36: 22 attempts and 2 sacks).
Dak Prescott was 15-of-27 for 212 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions (118.1; 15-of-29 on the true line, 110.1), was not sacked, and ran twice for 8 yards, plus the two-point run. He was 12-of-21 for 174 yards and two touchdowns in the first half and 3-of-6 for 38 yards and a touchdown in the second, and Dallas dropped back on only 41.5% of its plays (78.6% in Week 6).
Per Next Gen Stats, Prescott threw 16 of his 27 pass attempts (59.3%) downfield (10+ air yards) in the Cowboys’ Week 7 win against the Eagles; that’s the second-highest rate by a quarterback this season (Drake Maye) and the highest rate of Prescott’s career (minimum 5 throws).
On downfield throws, he completed 10 of his 16 pass attempts (62.5%), completing passes traveling at least 10 air yards at a higher rate than passes that traveled shorter than 10 air yards (50.0%). All three of Prescott’s touchdowns came on throws that traveled at least 10 air yards.
CeeDee Lamb led the tree at 44.8% adjusted (13 true targets of 29 adjusted attempts; from 33.3%), then George Pickens at 20.7% and Ryan Flournoy at 13.8%.
Pickens played 41 of 68 snaps (60%, from 88%) while Lamb played 55 (81%) and Flournoy 53 (78%).
Lamb caught 5 of 12 official targets (13 true) for 74 yards and two touchdowns (44.8% adjusted, from 33.3%). Scored his 2 touchdowns on a 3rd-and-2 and a 1st-and-10 throw. Lamb has seen at least five targets in every game this year and has at least five catches in six of them (NGS).
Pickens caught 4 of 6 for 57 yards and a 21-yard touchdown (20.7%, from 18.3%). Five of the six targets were in the first half. The Dallas Cowboys No. 2 WR continues to play second fiddle to Lamb, but the matchups coming up suggest he should at least be a viable fantasy WR2. Still if someone is valuing him as fringe fantasy WR1 (WR19 in ROS rankings)…I’d sell. Especially if Dallas is adamant about running the ball more like in this matchup.
The impending free agent is 20th in targets share (21.2%) but just 27th in air yards share this season (29.9%).
Flournoy caught 4 of 4 for 70 yards (13.8%, from 16.7%). Snap share: 53 of 68 (78%), from 68 of 78 (87%) in Week 6 (−9 points). The Cowboys No. 3 WR was a perfect 4-for-4, and the best yards per target on the team (17.5) on a snap role that held (53 snaps, 12 more than Pickens), but half the yardage is one 35-yard throw. Also need to consider how bad the Eagles have been against slot WRs this season.
Javonte Williams had 25 of the backs’ 36 opportunities (69.4%), Tyler Goodson 10 (27.8%), and Hunter Luepke 1 (2.8%), against Williams’s 61.9% in Week 6, and no Dallas back was targeted.
Williams ran 25 times for a career-high 155 yards (6.2) and a touchdown, 11 of the carries in the fourth quarter; the backs had 12 red-zone carries for 33 yards and a touchdown (Williams 7, Goodson 4, Luepke 1), and Williams’s +3 carry ended at the PHI 2, not the 1, with the touchdown on the next snap. Williams played 44 of 68 snaps (65%, from 73%) with Luepke on 16 and Goodson on 14.
Per Next Gen Stats: He had just five explosive runs on the season entering Monday, then had four against the Eagles defense and forced a season-high eight missed tackles. He set season-highs in yards before (61, career-high) and after (94, his second-most ever) contact.
Tyler Goodson carried 10 times for 38 yards with no target (0.0%, from 5.0%) and returned two kickoffs for 42, plus the nullified 91-yarder. Snap share: 14 of 68 (21%), from 11 of 78 (14%) in Week 6 (+7 points). Handcuff to Williams.
Jake Ferguson had 1 official target (2 true; one erased by pass interference) and no catches (6.9%, from 6.7%). Snap share: 38 of 68 (56%), from 42 of 78 (54%) in Week 6 (+2 points). Ferguson isn’t even the clear-cut No. 1 TE in the offense anymore with Brevyn Spann-Ford playing a legitimate amount in the offense. They played an identical amount of snaps in Week 7. Spann-Ford out-targeted Ferguson 2-1 (officially) and has 6 catches to Ferg’s two in the last 2 games.
Next four matchups (DAL): Wk8 vs ARI (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM ET) | Wk9 at IND (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM ET) | Wk10 vs SF (Home, Sunday 11/15, 4:25 PM ET) | Wk11 vs TEN (Home, Sunday 11/22)
Philadelphia Eagles
Sell Saquon Barkley & Add Elijah Mitchell & Makai Lemon
Saquon Barkley played nine snaps and touched the ball on all of them, rushing seven times for 62 yards and his first touchdown of the year while catching both of his targets for nine yards per Next Gen Stats.
Barkley had 9 of the backs’ 31 official opportunities (29.0%; 10 of 32, 31.3%, true), Dameon Pierce 15 (48.4%) and Elijah Mitchell 7 (22.6%), against Pierce’s 89.5% in Week 6.
But Barkley was battling his hamstring injury after his first big run.
On a short week, I’d imagine he is not going to play. And given his injury, seems more likely he gets shut down than traded. Sell.
Dameon Pierce took over from there, playing a team-high 39 snaps and picking up 47 yards and a touchdown on his 14 carries, but he went to the locker room and didn’t return.
No. 3 RB Elijah Mitchell was thrust into action and needs to be added as a volume play given all the RB injuries. Mitchell took every back opportunity after Pierce was hurt at Q4 8:38.
Per Next Gen Stats: Makai Lemon led the team with eight targets (24.3%, 9 true targets), seven receptions, 67 yards, and his first professional touchdown — all of which set career highs — on a team-high 35 routes (tied with Darius Cooper at 95%).
His 37 air yards ranked third on the team on Monday, but his 39 yards after the catch led Philadelphia; his 98 YAC on the season leads their WR room. Converted both fourth-down conversions.
Obviously, Lemon’s production comes with the caveat that DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks were injured…and it was the Dallas defense.
However, we want to take notice of talented rookie WRs when they break out before our eyes.
I also think Lemon’s style of play over the middle of the field might fit Tanner McKee’s style of QB more so than with Jalen Hurts. If you wanted to “sell-high” on Lemon, that could be a sharp approach, but I’m not sure fantasy managers are fighting over acquiring Eagles players.
McKee was 23-of-35 for 211 yards with one touchdown and one interception (79.6; 23-of-37 on the true line, 75.4), sacked twice for 11 and used on 1 carry for 1 yard. That is 6.0 yards per attempt on a 65.7% completion rate (4.8 and 57.8% in Week 6); he was 7-of-13 for 68 yards in the first half and 16-of-22 for 143 yards, the touchdown and the interception in the second, and Philadelphia dropped back on 59.7% of its plays (78.7% in Week 6).
If the Eagles can’t run the ball or play competent defense…there is going to be consistent pass volume for these pass-catchers.
Dallas Goedert caught 5 of 7 for 48 yards (18.9%, from 18.8%). Snap share: 48 of 66 (73%), from 52 of 64 (81%) in Week 6 (−8 points). However, he only ran a route on 65% of dropbacks (season-low), but the blow-out game script likely played a factor.
Marquise Brown caught 2 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 30 yards (16.2%; Not Active in Weeks 5 and 6). Snap share: 36 of 66 (55%).
Darius Cooper (1 of 3 for 17 on 61 snaps, 92%, from 61% in Week 6).
Next four matchups (PHI): Wk8 at WAS (Road, Sunday 11/1, 8:20 PM, NBC) | Wk9 vs NYG (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM) | Wk10 BYE | Wk11 vs PIT
BYE WEEK TEAMS
Washington Commanders
Add Chigoziem Okonkwo & Antonio Williams & Sell Stefon Diggs
Week 7’s Beyond the Waiver Wire:
Jayden Daniels was 29-of-40 for 300 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions (110.4; 29-of-42 and 105.3 on the true line), sacked four times for 39 yards and used on 4 carries for 10 yards.
The Commanders QB was 7-of-10 for 88 yards in the first half and 22-of-30 for 212 yards and both touchdowns in the second. His rushing floor disappeared: 4 carries for 10 yards after 103 in Week 5 (because of the matchup versus LB Fred Warner).
Per Next Gen Stats, despite facing a career-high 39.3% pressure rate and 35.9% blitz rate (seventh-highest in the league), Daniels is one of just two qualified QBs without an interception this season.
Stefon Diggs led the team’s total adjusted targets (42) at 19.0%, with Chigoziem Okonkwo at 16.7%, Treylon Burks at 14.3%, Rachaad White at 11.9%, and Antonio Williams at 9.5%.
On the snaps, Okonkwo played 51 of 67 (76%, from 71%), Antonio Williams 45 (67%), Diggs 41 (61%), Burks 37 (55%, from 73%), Dyami Brown 33 (49%, from 37%), and McLaurin 7 (10%, from 58%).
TMC carted off the field with a knee injury that is feared to be season-ending. McLaurin caught his only target for 27 yards on the first snap of the game.
Burks had no first-half targets and six in the second. He caught 4 of 6 for 66 yards (15.0%/14.3%, from 19.2%). Snap share: 37 of 67 (55%), from 45 of 62 (73%).
Okonkwo caught 7 of 7 targets for 69 yards (17.5% official/16.7% adjusted, from 26.9%). The Commanders TE led the team in routes run while running a route on a season-high 86% of the dropbacks. Add him.
Per Next Gen Stats: Okonkwo’s 145 yards are tied for the team lead with Daniels at QB this season.
Diggs caught 6 of 7 official targets (8 true) for 44 yards and a 1-yard touchdown (17.5%/19.0%, the team lead after missing Week 5. Credit for Diggs for stepping up even after it looked like he hurt his finger early in the game.
All three Washington third-down conversions were Williams catches in the fourth quarter (he also led all Commanders WRs in routes). Williams caught 3 of 4 for 50 yards (10.0%/9.5%, from 11.5%). Snap share: 45 of 67 (67%), from 42 of 62 (68%).
Without McLaurin Williams, Okonkwo should see more opportunities in the passing game. Just note the Commanders have a Week 7 bye week.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was placed on IR before Week 6’s game. Dan Quinn said it was the third time he injured his groin, so he might be out for a while.
In his absence, Rachaad White had 12 of the backs’ 20 opportunities (60.0%; 13 of 22, 59.1%, on the true line), Jeremy McNichols 5 (25.0%) and Austin Ekeler 3 (15.0%).
On the snaps White played 46 of 67 (69%, from 60%), McNichols 12 (18%) and Ekeler 7 (10%, unchanged), so McNichols’s opportunities came at 0.42 per snap (0.50 on the true line) against White’s 0.26 (12 on 46).
White ran 7 times for 27 yards and caught 4 of 5 for 30 and a touchdown; McNichols ran 5 times for 13 yards and had a 31-yard touchdown run nullified; the Commanders ran only 17 times for 53 yards for the entire game as they were in full-blown comeback mode in the second half.
View White as Washington’s RB1 moving forward.
Washington also lost DT Javon Kinlaw to a mid-game injury.
Out of the bye week, I am looking to capitalize on Stefon Diggs as the de facto WR1 in the Commanders’ offense.
Note the quote below by HC Dan Quinn.
“Stefon Diggs is doing “well,” Quinn said, and it doesn’t appear as if he will have an increased workload now that Terry McLaurin is out for the season. Instead, Quinn said that other players will have more responsibility to make up for McLaurin’s absence. He specifically highlighted rookie Antonio Williams as a player who could get more targets via Commanders.com.
Diggs’ status as WR1 is being overblown, and his production this year has been bloated by TDs. He has caught three of Daniels’ five touchdown passes this year. Just 5 end-zone targets that he has converted into 4 TDs.
He’s still a limited/part-time player who ranks 61st in route participation this season (62.5%). Averaging a career-low in yards per route run at 1.6. He will be 33 years old in November and already missed one game this season with a hamstring injury.
Next four matchups (WAS): Wk8 vs PHI (Home, Sunday 11/1, 8:20 PM NBC) | Wk9 vs LAR (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk10 at NYG (Road, Thursday 11/12, 8:15 PM, Prime Video).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Trevor Lawrence & Buy Parker Washington & Add Jags DST
Week 7’s Beyond the Waiver Wire:
Trevor Lawrence completed 24 of 41 for 306 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception (104.3 rating), was not sacked, and ran 3 times for 11 yards.
Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Lawrence completed 8 of 17 passes for 126 yards and two touchdowns against Houston’s season-high 39.5% blitz rate and went 9 of 13 for 115 yards and three touchdowns against its season-high man coverage (34.9% of coverage snaps), tying his career high for touchdowns against man coverage in a game; Houston pressured him on 35.3% of dropbacks.
The easiest fantasy football schedule remaining for QBs: the Jaguars.
Buy T-Law on his bye week. Currently the fantasy QB3 overall (QB9 in PPG).
Bhayshul Tuten had 16 of the backs’ 29 opportunities (55.2%, from 83.3% of 30) and Chris Rodriguez 12 (41.4%, from 10.0%).
Tuten carried 12 times for 39 yards (13 for 44 true, counting the nullified touchdown run and another stuff at the 1-yard line) and caught all 4 targets for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns. The second-year RB ran a career-high 25 routes (on 41 snaps) and scored a career-high 24.7 fantasy points.
Rodriguez carried 11 times for 55 yards (5.0), 10 of them in the first half, and converted both 3rd-and-1s. Tuten played 41 of 71 snaps (58%, from 68%) and Rodriguez 21 (30%, from 12%). C-Rod was on a heater earlier on in this game but they went away from him in the second half. 10 of his 11 carries came before halftime and he caught nothing in the passing game (per usual).
Parker Washington led the target tree at 26.8% (22.5% in Week 5) on 11 targets; Jakobi Meyers rose to 24.4% (10.0%), Brenton Strange was 17.1% (20.0%) and Travis Hunter 9.8% (2.5%) on 4 targets in four catches; Josh Cameron fell to 0.0% (15.0%) and Brian Thomas Jr. had 2 targets and no catch for a second straight week.
Washington caught 4 of 11 for 64 yards (26.8%, from 22.5%); snap share 52 of 71 (73%), from 59 of 72 (82%) in Week 5.
Still the alpha in the passing game (ran the most routes), with a GREAT schedule rest of season. On the bye week after a performance with production left on the table…screaming buy.
Meyers caught 5 of 10 for 83 yards (24.4%, from 10.0%); snap share 53 of 71 (75%), from 61 of 72 (85%) in Week 5. 10 targets (0.19 per snap, on a snap share down 10 points), three second-half catches for 65 yards and two goal-line looks.
On snaps, Strange played 76% (81% in Week 5), Meyers 75% (85%), Washington 73% (82%), Cameron 51% (31%) with no target, Thomas 21% (51%) and Hunter 13% (8%).
Strange (TE) caught 5 of 7 for 44 (17.1%, from 20.0%); snap share 54 of 71 (76%), from 58 of 72 (81%) in Week 5. His holding erased the Tuten touchdown. Routes also fell to 58.5% (season-low).
Travis Hunter only ran 7 routes – so he’s very hard to trust given his offensive deployment is seemingly so game plan dependent. Still impressive he caught 4 of 4 for 59 yards and a 7-yard touchdown (9.8%, from 2.5%) and intercepted Stroud in the end zone (Q4 3:59); snap share 9 of 71 (13%), from 6 of 72 (8%) in Week 5.
Brian Thomas Jr. did not play a single snap in the second half. The only reason you are holding BTJ at this point is with the hope that he gets traded (Commanders or 49ers, perhaps). Ran fewer routes than Cameron.
Buy Parker Washington. Like Trevor Lawrence, he will benefit from all the great matchups coming up. Top-5 schedule ROS for WRs.
10th in targets share (25%) and 10th in air yard share this season (WR11 in ROS consensus rankings).
Next four matchups (JAC): Wk8 vs IND (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at BLT (Road, Thursday 11/5, 8:15 PM) | Wk10 at TEN (Road, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM).
Los Angeles Chargers
Hold Omarion Hampton & Ladd McConkey
Week 7’s Beyond the Waiver Wire:
Los Angeles was 0-for-3 in the red zone (0-for-1 on goal-to-go), 5-of-16 on third down and 0-for-3 on fourth, took 4 sacks for 18, lost one fumble and was flagged 7 times for 59 yards.
Justin Herbert was 22-of-37 for 204 yards with no touchdown and one interception (63.3; 23-of-41 for 217 yards and two interceptions on the true line, sacked four times for 18, and used on 5 carries for 26 yards).
KeAndre Lambert-Smith led the offense at 26.8% of the adjusted targets (11 of 41), with Charlie Kolar and Oronde Gadsden at 14.6% each, Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal and Quentin Johnston at 9.8% each.
Lambert-Smith (5 catches for 32 yards on 9 official targets, 11 true targets, a lost fumble and two penalty-erased targets) made his first real impact on the season in Week 6.
Snaps: Lambert-Smith 59 of 68 (87%), Johnston 56 (82%), Kolar 45 (66%), Gadsden 33 (49%) and Theo Wease 32 (47%).
Kolar caught 3 of 6 for 20 yards (14.6%, from 15.4%). Snap share: 45 of 68 (66%), from 51 of 67 (76%) in Week 5 (−10 points).
Gadsden caught 3 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 17 yards (14.6%, from 3.8%), including the interception target erased by a roughing penalty. Snap share: 33 of 68 (49%), from 39 of 67 (58%) in Week 5 (−9 points).
Johnston caught 1 of 3 official targets (4 true) for 57 yards (9.8%; Week 5: Not Active). Snap share: 56 of 68 (82%), from 53 snaps (75%) in Week 4 (+7 points). The 57-yarder was down at the KC 1, and the drive ended in a field goal; 4 true targets on 56 snaps.
Ladd McConkey left the game with a concussion, which opened up more targets for the other Chargers WRs. McConkey finished with just 1 catch for 17 yards, 2.4%; 8 snaps, 12%, before he was hurt after the Q1 7:21 catch and ultimately ruled out.
Hampton had 11 of the backs’ 25 opportunities (44.0%; 46.2% of 26 on the true line) on 7 carries for 18 yards and 4 catches for 21 on 4 targets, Kimani Vidal 11 (44.0%) on 7 carries for 21 and 3 catches for 19 on 4 targets, and Keaton Mitchell 3 (12.0%) on 2 carries for 4 and one incompletion.
Week 5 was Hampton 15 of 35 (42.9%), Vidal and Mitchell 10 each (28.6%).
Hampton led the backs in Week 6 snaps (34 of 68, 50%, from 30%), ahead of Vidal (25, 37%, from 42%) and Mitchell (17, 25%, from 34%). The second-year RB had one goal-line carry, at the KC 1, which a holding call erased (a −1 yard run).
Even so, Hampton saw a season-low in carries (7) and rushing yards (18) despite the boosted receiving usage (4 targets and a season-high in routes). He has had double-digit touches in every game this season with 14 red-zone carries. There is a point where Hampton becomes so cheap that he might become a buy for any RB-needy teams.
I think Hampton falls into the category of a “trash-for-trash” trade for need.
One man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
No team needs a bye week more than the 0-6 Chargers. We shall see if they make offensive coaching changes. Because that has been a crux of their horrific start. And unfortunately, the schedule does them no favors.
Only Chargers “worth” rostering are Hampton and McConkey. Nobody else needs to be held through the bye week.
Here’s to hoping that they have something new on offense after a week to reset. Chargers remain the only winless team in the NFL.
Next four matchups (LAC): Wk8 at LAR (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM) | Wk9 vs HOU (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM) | Wk10 at BAL (Road, Monday 11/16, 8:15 PM).
Buffalo Bills
Add Keon Coleman & Buy Dalton Kincaid
Week 7’s Beyond the Waiver Wire:
Josh Allen was 23-of-33 for 255 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions (112.6; 24-of-36 for 273 yards and three touchdowns on the true line), sacked twice for 13 and used on 5 carries for 1 yard.
After three straight duds, Dalton Kincaid turned in a solid outing, leading the team with eight targets and seven catches (tying his season-high), turning in 38 yards on 22 routes per Next Gen Stats.
Kincaid led the offense at 27.8% of the adjusted targets. The Bills tight end’s share rose 18.7 points from 9.1% (7 catches for 38 yards on 8 official targets, 10 true, and the nullified touchdown). In Weeks 3-5, he had four catches for 52 yards combined. He also left the game after suffering a rib injury (only ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks).
Kincaid also caught a TD on a 4th-down that was nullified by offensive holding.
Shakir had a solid day with four catches for 34 yards and his first touchdown since Week 14 of 2025 on six targets. 32 of those yards came after the catch. His 9.3 yards after the catch per reception leads all WRs with at least 10 targets this year (Next Gen Stats). Snap share: 41 of 68 (60%), from 44 of 64 (69%) in Week 5.
Coleman continued his trend of being particularly productive in every other game this season, catching four of his six targets for a team-high 59 yards and a touchdown on 31 routes (7 true targets, 18.2%/19.4% share, from 22.7%). Snap share: 58 of 68 (85%), from 45 of 64 (70%) in Week 5.
Coleman had the most snaps/routes of any Bills skill player, the team’s most receiving yards, and a touchdown on his only red-zone target. He continues to step up in the absence of D.J. Moore. Moore will likely return after the Bills’ bye week, so Coleman can be dropped in shallower formats. But in deeper spots, I’d hold Coleman.
James Cook had 25 of the backs’ 30 opportunities (83.3%; 26 of 31, 83.9%, on the true line), Ty Johnson 3 (10.0%) and Ray Davis 2 (6.7%). Week 5 was Cook 78.8%, Johnson 12.1%, Davis 9.1%; the snaps were Cook 45 of 68 (66%, from 62%), Johnson 12 (18%, from 22%), and Davis 9 (13%, from 16%).
The Bills’ workhorse RB ran 22 times for 95 yards and a touchdown, caught 3 of 3 for 58, and had 4 red-zone carries for 11 yards and the touchdown; he had all 15 of the backs’ second-half opportunities.
Next four matchups (BUF): Wk8 vs BAL (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at MIN (Road, Monday 11/9, 8:15 PM) | Wk10 at NYJ (Road, Sunday 11/15, 1:00 PM).
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