Here are the top fantasy baseball starting pitchers our experts are targeting and avoiding in their 2026 drafts.
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Target & Avoid
Busts
Who’s your biggest bust inside the top 20 SPs and why?
“Though Dylan Cease’s strikeouts continue to look great, and he had an xERA that was over a full run lower, he continues to be more of the same we’ve seen for years, for better or for worse. Cease carried a four-plus ERA during four of the six months of the season, which has been a long standing consistancy issue with the flame thrower. His walks and higher WHIP numbers take away from his upside, and he seems the likeliest of the top 20 pitchers to bust, not accounting for an injury.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
“Logan Webb has some bust potential. While he has been extremely durable, with 190+ innings in four consecutive seasons, his WHIP has been detrimental. He’s had a WHIP north of 1.20 in back-to-back seasons. He’s excellent at controlling the walks, but he’s been top-three in the National League in hits allowed in the past three seasons. The Giants had the worst fielding percentage in the MLB last season, and their infield offseason additions won’t help in that regard.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
“I don’t think any pitcher inside the top 20 is likely to bust unless an injury occurs, and nobody is rooting for that. But I believe ECR’s view of Framber Valdez as a top-20 starting pitcher in 2026 is overly optimistic. Valdez does not possess the elite skills expected of a top-20 starter. He induces many ground balls and limits barrels at a solid rate, but his strikeout rates and xERA are only marginally above average. If Valdez finishes as a top-20 starter in 2026, it will be due to workload rather than skill. “
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)
“It’s Chris Sale based on the price. The skills are elite, but he turns 37 at the end of March and has been limited by injuries the past few seasons. He pitched 125.2 innings last season, and it’s the second-highest total for him in the last five years. Paying a high price tag for a pitcher of his age and an injury history is risky.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)
“BEAST DOME ranked Cristopher Sanchez higher than any expert last season, and he delivered a Cy Young-type season. However, I do not believe he is the type of pitcher you can rely on as a true fantasy ace being drafted 6th off the board at the position. For Sanchez to hit value where he is being drafted, inconsistency cannot be part of his vocabulary, and outside of last season, that is all Sanchez was. I am not willing to risk that Sanchez will be a Cy Young candidate in back-to-back years due to the fact that he has never proved it before.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
“Hunter Brown is understandably getting drafted like a front-line starter after posting a 2.43 ERA and 206 strikeouts last season, but an average ADP of No. 35 is a steep cost coming off a breakout year. The Astros ace had the lowest K-BB% (20.4%) and swinging-strike rate (11.3%) among all top-10 SPs in the consensus ADP. His strikeout rate also dipped to 24.0% after the All-Star break, so Brown may need to hover around 200 innings to justify his price tag. Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo make a better choice if seeking a rotation headliner around the Round 3/4 turn in 12-team mixed leagues.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
“According to FanGraphs, George Kirby had a career-high 4.21 ERA, tied his career-high for xERA (3.88), and logged the second-highest WHIP (1.19) in his career, in career lows for starts (23) and innings (126) last year. Kirby’s career-high 26.1 K% doesn’t stand up under scrutiny, either. Kirby’s 87.2 Z-Contact% last year was higher than the league average (86%), and his stuff+ dipped to 98 after back-to-back seasons of 104. Finally, Kirby’s home/road splits are concerning. He had a 3.38 ERA in 66.2 innings at home last year, and a 5.16 ERA in 59.1 innings on the road, and his 3.07 ERA in 313.2 innings at home in his career is an entire run under his 4.08 ERA in 324 innings on the road.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“As I was scrolling through the Top 20 for this article, I had two impressions. One was how thin the SP class is in the Elite tier (I count three, four if you include Ohtani, who is there for reasons beyond his pitching prowess), and two, how respectable, overall, the Top 20 is this season, making it difficult to pick a bust. I had to go with George Kirby. Control is typically Kirby’s thing, making a “bust” season less likely than most pitchers because his floor is higher, but I have him as a bust because he doesn’t belong in the Top 20 to begin with, because his ceiling isn’t up to snuff for a Top 20 SP. Kirby struggles to average a K per inning when he pitches a full season of starts, while he was barely able to break that key barrier in 2022 and 2025 in limited innings seasons. He’s never struck out 200 batters in a season, and he has allowed or averaged what would have been 20 home runs per season in every Major League campaign of his career. Add to that low ceiling, Kirby’s ERA has been good but not special for a command and control guy, a career best in 2023 of 3.35, and he’s coming off a worst 4.21 in ’25. Kirby’s coming off a season where his BB% was far and away his worst. For a Top 20 SP, I want upside and ceiling – that means strikeouts. If I’m going to make an exception, he needs to be a special ERA/WHIP/Ratios guy, and while Kirby is respectable, he ain’t special. I project him as my 2026 bust because 2025 was his worst season to date, and without the upside to buoy any risk that he is in decline, there is nothing but downside and the possibility that he is your Top 20 Bust.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
“Freddy Peralta may have no trouble adjusting to a bigger stage in New York, but he’ll struggle to keep his ratios close to last year’s levels. After posting an ERA over 3.50 for the previous three years, it dropped to 2.70 last year despite a 3.68 SIERA, suggesting some luck was involved. His WHIP had risen three straight years to a 1.21 in 2024 before dropping to 1.08 last season. Regression seems all but inevitable.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
“Joe Ryan seems extremely overvalued as the #17 starting pitcher in our rankings. Despite recording 194 strikeouts in 2025, the right-hander posted a hard hit percentage of 41.9%. Combine that with a mediocre 3.42 ERA, and fantasy managers would be better served waiting to fill another starting pitcher slot if Ryan is next on the board.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)
Breakouts
Who’s your top breakout candidate inside the top 60 SPs and why?
“Shane Baz was clearly affected by the minor league ballpark he pitched in last year, as he had a 5.90 ERA at home and a 3.86 ERA on the road. He pumps 97 on his fastball, which was almost a two MPH increase year over year. His curve has a 125 stuff+ and a solid WHIFF rate, to go along with an overall 107 stuff+ rating. Baz is in a much better pitching environment, with great run support, and has the chance to be a top 30 SP in 2026. “
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
“Kyle Bradish is my top breakout pitcher. He’s going as the number 22 starter off the board, and I think he’ll greatly outperform that. Among all pitchers with at least 30 innings in 2025, Bradish ranked fifth in K-BB%. He was in the company of Mason Miller, Aroldis Chapman, and Edwin Diaz… as a starter. The only question is how many innings his innings will be limited to.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
“I’m sure I won’t be the only one with this answer, but my top breakout pick is Chase Burns. His strikeout upside is nearly unmatched. Burns only made eight starts for Cincinnati last season. He struck out 10 batters in four of those eight starts. For reference, Paul Skenes struck out 10 batters once in 32 starts. Burns is not as polished as Skenes yet, but he has all the tools. He struck out 156 hitters while allowing just 79 hits and 29 walks in 109.1 innings last year across the Majors and Minors. I expect Chase Burns to have a breakout season in 2026. “
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)
To qualify as a breakout candidate, you either need top-of-the-market ratios or swing and miss nastiness. Burns has the latter in spades with potential to “breakout” with significant improvement in the former. Chase Burns’ filthy K/9 (141 strikeouts in 118.4 innings pitched) is likely to be one of the best in the Top 10 SP, never mind Top 60 in 2026. His WHIP of 1.16 in 2025, along with his elite swing and miss stuff, suggests that his relatively disappointing 3.66 ERA will improve as his innings pitched increase. Another factor, as incongruous as it is, is that his underlying metrics need to get better to be a breakout guy (15 homeruns, 36 walks, and 48 earned runs in 118.4 IP), and with his “stuff,” I fully expect they all will. That, to me, is the definition of a breakout candidate and my best bet in 2026. If I had to pick a second, it’s Nolan McLean of the New York Mets. His underlying metrics are all better, in comparison to Burns, making strikeouts and weak-contact rates places that McLean can go from good to elite, and his profile suggests he has the “stuff” to do that. Both these guys are young, undervalued by ADP with elite, breakout potential in 2026.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
“Nick Lodolo will have a big season. Despite a tough home park, Lodolo had good numbers last season with a 3.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He had a 4.8% walk rate and could see more strikeouts after a pitch mix change. In the final 11 starts, he threw his curveball more, and it had a swinging strike rate of almost 16%.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)
“Nick Lodolo quietly made some massive strides late last season, posting a 3.12 ERA and 0.96 WHIP backed by excellent underlying numbers after the All-Star break. The southpaw submitted the second half’s highest CWS rate (34.1%) and second-best swinging-strike rate (16.2%) among all starters, leading to an excellent 25.1 K-BB% and 2.77 SIERA. While drafters shouldn’t ignore the health and home park risks, Lodolo offers immense upside outside the top-100 picks.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
“Tyler Glasnow has the type of strikeout stuff that can dominate any lineup in baseball. When he is healthy, he already pitches like an ace, and pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers only increases his win potential with one of the best offenses in the league behind him and now Edwin Diaz to wrap up games. Glasnow’s strikeout rate is elite, and if he can put together a full season, he has the upside to finish among the very best starting pitchers in fantasy baseball and compete for a Cy Young.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
“Bubba Chandler’s first taste of the Majors last season was rock-solid. He made seven appearances (four starts) for the Pirates, tallying 31.1 innings. The young righty’s 4.02 ERA was fine. However, Chandler’s 3.66 xERA, 3.20 xFIP, 3.09 SIERA, and 0.93 WHIP were much more eye-catching. Chandler also had a tiny 3.2 BB% and a fantasy-friendly 25.0 K%. Chandler’s plate discipline numbers (13.4 SwStr% and 28.9 CSW%) and pitch modeling (109 stuff+, 104 location+ and 115 pitching+) were also exciting. The 23-year-old righty has the goods to break out and drastically outkick his SP48 ADP.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“Eury Perez is ready to be an ace. He earned the eighth-highest Stuff+ rating in Eno Sarris’ model that evaluates pitch quality, which places him among the elite. He posted an excellent .203 xBA (88th percentile) and a 27.3% K% in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. He’s shown flashes of dominance, but hasn’t had the chance to put together a full season in the Majors yet. This is his time.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
“Tatsuya Imai has shown why the right-hander was so highly coveted by the Houston front office during the offseason, posting a dazzling 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP in three spring appearances for the Astros. Ranked #56 among starting pitchers currently shows how undervalued he is behind Hunter Brown despite possessing ace-level stuff as evidenced by an impressive 0.89 WHIP and 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts for the Seibu Lions in 2025.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)
Sleepers
Who’s your favorite sleeper outside the top 60 SPs and why?
“Named the Opening Day starter for the Brewers, Chad Patrick had a 3.53 ERA last year, with a 25% K%. He’s working on a Slurve to complement his fastball and cutter, which could lead to a jump in his strikeout rate. He’s going outside the top 350 overall players and undrafted in most leagues. He’s a great bet to see if the K’s jump, and if not, you can move on to a streamer.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
“I wrote him up in an article on FantasyPros last week (shameless plug), and I am going to bang the drum again for him here. It’s Chad Patrick, and I am going to mention the same tidbit I did in that piece, with a slight tweak. There are 127 MLB pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last year. Nine of them struck out at least a batter per inning while allowing less than one home run per nine innings. Here is where each of those nine pitchers lands in the current ECR landscape: SP1, SP2, SP5, SP6, SP7, SP9, SP12, SP19, SP103 (Chad Patrick is SP103). Manager Pat Murphy has already confirmed that Patrick has earned a spot in Milwaukee’s starting rotation. I expect Patrick to continue to provide solid numbers across the board. I believe Chad Patrick is one of the best overall fantasy values late in drafts.”
– Mick Ciallela (Fantrax)
“Bailey Ober is one of my biggest sleepers. He’s going in drafts as the 82nd starting pitcher off the board after being drafted as the 25th starter in drafts last year. He had a down year, to put it lightly, but he said it was due to a hip injury he was trying to play through. Heading into drafts last year, he was coming off three seasons of a mid-to-high-3s ERA with an exceptional WHIP. At ADP 280 overall, he’s basically free.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
“Joey Cantillo has a good changeup and curveball. If he can improve the walk rate, he can take a big step. The changeup had a 49.4% whiff rate. Cantillo had a 3.21 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate over 95.1 innings.”
– Adam Ronis (Sirius XM)
“Kodai Senga started the 2025 season on the injured list, but once he returned, he looked like the same dominant pitcher thanks to his famous ghost forkball. Senga finished the season with nearly a strikeout per inning and a 2.99 ERA, showing that his swing and miss stuff remains elite when healthy. The New York Mets roster that has added significant offensive firepower, Senga should find himself in far more winning situations. If he can stay healthy for a full season, the strikeout upside and strong ratios give him the potential to dramatically outperform his draft position. Getting a pitcher with ace-level ability at the end of your draft is exactly the type of move that can win fantasy leagues.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
“Everyone must have been too focused on Bubba Chandler to notice another Pirates rookie’s impressive arrival. Braxton Ashcraft registered a 2.71 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 69.2 innings with a 50.3% ground-ball rate and 2.78 FIP. He didn’t falter when moving from the bullpen to rotation, delivering a 2.16 ERA and 2.42 FIP in eight starts. Ashcraft must get stretched out more after never completing six innings last season, but he allowed two combined runs when working at least five frames in three straight August starts. He’s an intriguing gamble around his No. 289 average ADP.”
– Andrew Gould (FantasyPros)
“Cody Ponce can be the newest example of a player who breaks out abroad and brings their gains back to MLB with them. Ponce last pitched in MLB in 2021 for the Pirates before spending three years in NPB and putting it together in his only season in KBO in 2025. In 29 starts spanning 180.2 innings in the KBO last year, Ponce had a 1.89 ERA, 2.30 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, and 36.2 K%. Ponce has tallied a 1.50 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 0.67 WHIP, 0.0 BB%, and 23.8 K% in three Spring Training starts spanning 6.0 innings. Additionally, Ponce has utilized a fastball with an average velocity of 95.8 mph, a cutter averaging 91.0 mph, a slider at 84.6 mph, a curve at 83.0 mph, and a changeup at 89.0 mph in Spring Training. Ponce’s deep arsenal and wide variety of velocities should serve him well. He’s undervalued as the SP84 in ADP.”
– Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)
“Jack Leiter has entered post-hype territory because he struggled in his first taste of the Majors. Yet, he’s still just 25 years old and had a solid 2025 in which he started 29 games and posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The walk rate needs to decline, but command often comes with experience. Leiter is adding a cutter to his already-deep five-pitch repertoire and is aiming to work deeper into games. Leiter has always been a massive talent waiting to break out, and 2026 might be the year it happens.”
– Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)
“Ryan Weathers has landed in the perfect spot to finally take advantage of his swing-and-miss stuff after being traded to the Yankees in the offseason. Fantasy managers will likely have reservations due to consistent injury issues over the past couple of seasons, but the left-hander has posted a dazzling 12.71 K/9 so far this spring, and being ranked the #76 starting pitcher seems like a bargain while filling out the back of my fantasy rotation.”
– Chris Schommer (FantasyPros)
“I love the youth in the Brew Crew’s rotation, and Logan Henderson is one of the reasons. His 2025 season was filled with signs of upside potential ( 33 K’s in 25.1 IP) and elite ratios (1.78 ERA and .99 WHIP), and that was at the Major League level. In the minors, he was a model of consistency, which bodes well for his ability to be a consistent fantasy starter. In 12 Minor League starts, he allowed two or fewer runs in 11 and only three in the 12th. Combine that with a sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP at the Major League level, and it has me scratching my head at how there is even a question as to whether Henderson has a rotation spot when camp breaks, especially after Freddy Peralta bolted for the bright lights of Big City New York. Peralta left the Brew Crew with a bag, and I fully expect Henderson to carry it and to carry it better than Peralta did. Henderson has had some elbow soreness in camp, so owners need to monitor that as draft night approaches. Other than that, ranked as the 85th best SP, I call that a sleeper, not only worth rostering but someone that could be the reason owners win leagues.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
from FantasyPros https://ift.tt/ZxSmeDL
