NFL Week 3 is complete. Injuries dominated for the second straight week, nuking even more fantasy teams. But whether you are 3-0 or 0-3, there are moves to make heading into Week 4.
Waiver wire targets. Trades to make. Start/sit decisions.
Let my “Beyond the Waiver Wire” series be your compass, guiding you to Week 4 fantasy football success.
No fluff (or less fluff). Trust me, I am trying my best. Advanced metrics/data are provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS).
LFG.
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Fantasy Football Beyond the Waiver Wire: Week 4
Atlanta Falcons
Buy Kyle Pitts
Michael Penix Jr. went 18-of-25 for 256 yards, a touchdown, and an interception (101.4 rating), adding 2 carries for -2 yards.
A genuinely efficient, explosive debut as the starter — the 68-yard connection with Drake London was the headline, but he spread the ball to seven different pass-catchers and didn’t turn the ball over beyond the one interception on Atlanta’s opening drive.
Bijan Robinson carried 29 times for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught both of his targets for 19 yards.
His true workload is even bigger than the gaudy official line — 30 carries, 203 yards once a penalty-erased 9-yard gain is added back. His snap share jumped from 51% to 72% week over week, and his carries nearly doubled.
Brian Robinson Jr. carried 10 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. Robinson’s rushing workload held almost exactly flat (11 carries/51 yds → 10 carries/50 yds) from Week 2. He’s been under-the-radar involved this season, and has at least 9 carries in three straight games.
Drake London caught 9 of a team-high 10 targets for 194 yards, no touchdowns. The clear target-share riser with the Penix back at QB — more than doubling his share from Week 2. Target share more than doubled (18.2% → 38.5% adjusted, 5-6 true targets → 10). Dude has been a stud with Penix, and that was so apparent on Thursday Night Football.
Per Next Gen Stats, London’s 194 yards were more receiving yards than he had logged in his previous five games combined (189), dating back to last year after Penix went down with a torn AC.
The southpaw savior seems like the tide this Falcons needed to lift all boats. Well…almost all the boats.
Charlie Woerner (61%) actually out-snapped Kyle Pitts (59%) among Atlanta tight ends, despite Pitts being the more established receiving option.
Pitts’ target share was down slightly (9.1% → 7.7% adjusted) — still a limited, tertiary role in this passing game. Ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks but only one catch for 5 yards on 2 targets. His route rate is pretty solid (besides in the Week 2 blow-out).
Obviously been tough sledding for Pitts…but I have to imagine better days are coming for him at some point. QB issue is solved for Atlanta with Penix. The first two games were bad because of the quarterback play, so I feel like Pitts maybe shouldn’t be written totally OFF after one bad game with an actual QB under center.
Now, admittedly, Pitts was not a draft target for me because his splits with a healthy London are glaring (check out the With or Without Tool on FantasyPros). Same with Penix. Kirk Cousins is not walking through the door to pepper the Falcons TE with targets. But with the price so cheap now after 3 bad games, I think TE-needy teams can buy him real cheap (or if he gets dropped outright).
HC Kevin Stefanski continues to praise Pitts as being a big part of their offense, so I’d bet he sees more volume in future weeks.
Austin Hooper caught both of his targets for 11 yards and a touchdown.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at NO (Road, MNF) | Wk5 vs BLT (Home) | Wk6 vs CHI (Home) | Wk7 vs SF (Home).
Green Bay Packers
Buy Tucker Kraft, Sell Packers RBs
Jordan Love went 28-of-53 for 312 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 1 interception (75.4 rating), taking 1 sack. A high-volume, mostly clean day undercut by the final interception at the Atlanta 3 that sealed the game — his 312 passing yards are a season high, driven entirely by the negative game script.
This offense was built around Love’s arm out of necessity — trailing by multiple scores for almost the entire second half, Green Bay ran the ball just 9 times all game (17 total yards), and Love threw it 53 times, his highest volume of the season by a wide margin.
Per NGS: Love was pressured 23 times (41.8% pressure rate) in Week 3 against the Falcons, completing just 8 of 21 pass attempts for 71 yards and one interception. Love has been pressured on 42.1% of his dropbacks, the highest pressure rate he has faced through Week 3 of a season since becoming the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2023. Under pressure this season, he has completed just 18 passes for 47 yards and two interceptions.
Christian Watson caught 7 of 10 targets for 96 yards and a touchdown — Green Bay’s opening score of the game. His share of the offense fell sharply week over week, but that’s because Matthew Golden’s target count exploded and the team threw 20 more times than last week. Target share fell sharply (33.3% → 18.9% adjusted) even though his raw target count only dropped by one (11 → 10).
Matthew Golden caught 5 of a team-high 12 targets (23% target share) for 100 yards and a touchdown. His raw target count nearly doubled from Week 2 (matching his Week 1 volume).
Tucker Kraft caught 4 of 8 targets for 26 yards (with multiple drops). Still a real riser in raw volume (3 official/5 true → 8) even though his snap share actually fell (98% → 76%).
You’re happy with the Packers WRs, not so much with Kraft. Still, a ramp-up in production was to be expected coming off his torn ACL. The Packers also said they would ease him in before the season started. Good matchups coming up, though.
Kaleb Johnson and MarShawn Lloyd combined for just 8 carries and 17 yards on the ground, with neither back distinguishing himself in a game where Green Bay abandoned the run almost entirely.
Lloyd overall usage: 4 carries for 11 yards, plus 2 catches on 3 targets for 7 yards (24% snap share). His saving grace is that 3 of his four carries were all in the red zone. But didn’t score in Week 3.
Johnson overall usage: 4 official carries for 6 yards (true: 5 carries/11 yds once the Watson-holding-erased carry is added back), plus 1 catch on 3 targets for 10 yards (35% snap share).
Both backs saw their overall workload shrink from an already-modest three-man rotation last week (Johnson 8 car/32 yds, Lloyd 6 car/20 yds+TD, Chris Brooks 4 car/11 yds) to almost nothing this week.
Brooks: 0 carries, 1 catch on 1 target for 4 yards (41% snap share, 73% coming on third downs).
This backfield is a mess, and the Packers’ OL can’t create any room for run-blocking. Sell/drop.
LB Edgerrin Cooper was questionable to return in the fourth quarter (concussion). OG Jacob Monk was also injured late in the fourth quarter.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at TB (Road) | Wk5 vs CHI (Home) | Wk6 vs DAL (Home) | Wk7 at DET (Road).
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Jadarian Price
This was a back-and-forth shootout that Seattle dominated statistically and still lost by two.
Jadarian Price fumbled at the SEA22, and Washington needed just four plays to cash in a Marcus Mariota-to-Rachaad White 6-yard touchdown for an early 0-7 lead.
Seattle answered with a 9-play, 90-yard, nearly five-minute drive, but not before a huge, mostly-buried moment: on 1st-and-goal from the WAS1, George Holani was stopped for no gain right at the 1-yard line.
Washington answered right back with an 8-play, 60-yard drive. The two teams traded second-quarter field goals — both from 57 yards out.
17-10 Washington at the half.
Seattle tied it at 24-24 on an 80-yard, JSN-capped touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter.
Washington answered with a field goal (27-24), and then the game’s biggest swing hit: on the ensuing Seattle possession, Sam Darnold’s pass intended for A.J. Barner was intercepted and returned 50 yards for a touchdown, pushing Washington’s lead to 33-24 with just over 11 minutes left. Seattle answered with a quick 68-yard, five-play touchdown drive (Cooper Kupp, 7 yards) to cut it to 31-33 with 2:55 left, but Washington ran out the final 2:51 without giving the ball back, closing the game on consecutive Mariota kneel-downs.
Seattle out-gained Washington badly — 437 total net yards to 258, 28 first downs to 17, 6.8 yards per play to 4.0 — and led 3-9 (33.3%) on third down to Washington’s 3-13 (23.1%). But Seattle never led at any point.
The turnover margin (Seattle: 1 lost fumble + 2 interceptions thrown, one returned for a touchdown; Washington: zero turnovers) tells a story the yardage totals don’t.
Darnold started after suffering a hip injury back in the season opener.
He responded with a monster fantasy, if turnover-marred, day: 31-of-45 for 379 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 2 interceptions (one returned for a defensive touchdown).
Jaxson Smith-Njigba caught 10 of 14 targets for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Still the unambiguous WR1 of this offense by raw volume, even though his share of the team’s targets dipped (42.3% → 30.4% adjusted) purely because Seattle threw 20 more times than in Week 2. Stud. Nobody can cover this guy.
Price started (his third straight start), but posted the lightest workload of Seattle’s three backs. After his fumble, he had two carries. Finished with just a 27% snap share.
Overall usage: 5 carries for 15 yards, plus 3 targets, 1 rec, and 7 yds. Total opportunities: 8.
Price is heading in the completely wrong direction. With Zach Charbonnet on the shelf…this was his chance to establish himself in the backfield. Clearly not been the case. He’s been a committee through 3 games (sheer lack of red-zone work), and the fumbles aren’t helping his cause – especially when this issue dates back to his college days.
Per Next Gen Stats, Price has played just 33.3% of offensive snaps and received just 37.3% (28 of 75) of carries by Seattle RBs this season, including just 16.7% (3 of 18) in the red zone.
Emanuel Wilson was the Week 2 injury fill-in back, still heavily involved but no longer the workhorse. Led the backfield with a 38% snap rate. 2 goal-line carries but zero scores.
Overall usage: 9 carries for 14 yards, 0 targets. Got the game’s first goal-to-go carry (1st-and-goal from the Washington 1, -2 yards, backing the ball up before the DPI reset the down).
George Holani was used especially through the air, playing 100% on third downs.
Overall usage: 3 carries for 10 yards, but 5 targets/5 receptions/48 yards — a true receiving breakout, including a 14-yard catch on a trick pass thrown by JSN. Ran for no gain at the WAS1 on 1st-and-goal (Q2, 14:17).
This settled into a near-even three-way rushing split (5/9/3 carries) rather than a clear lead back — a real departure from the two-man Price/Wilson picture that closed out Week 2. The bigger story is Holani’s emergence as a receiving weapon and Price’s lack of touches after he fumbled (second time in two weeks).
Barner’s targets jumped from 1 (3.8%) to 9 (19.6%), and his 69 receiving yards are a new season high by a wide margin. Caught 5 of 9 targets for 69 yards while playing nearly every single snap (91%). Also drew four red zone targets (two in the end zone).
Kupp’s targets held steady (2 → 5, share roughly flat at ~11%), but he finally scored. Caught 4 of 5 targets for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Rashid Shaheed took A real step back — targets and share both fell (6/23.1% → 3/6.5%), and he was also banged up briefly in the fourth quarter. Shaheed also got hurt on a fourth-quarter kickoff return. Why did the Seahawks pay this guy again?
Tory Horton had zero targets in Week 2; this week he drew 3 targets for a team-high-tying 48 yards (16.0 yards/catch)
Nick Emmanwori got banged up, adding to the laundry list of safety injuries Seattle’s secondary is dealing with.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs LAC (Home) | Wk5 vs SF (Home) | Wk6 at DEN (Road) | Wk7 vs KC (Home).
Washington Commanders
Buy Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Add Marcus Mariota
The single biggest hidden storyline of the entire first half: Jacory Croskey-Merritt broke a 48-yard touchdown run in the first quarter that was wiped off the board entirely by a Washington Illegal Formation penalty.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt in Week 3
19 carries for 36 yards. Woof.
48-yd rushing TD wiped out for illegal formation.
Double woof.
— Andrew Erickson
(@AndrewErickson_) September 27, 2026
Croskey-Merritt started and delivered a true workhorse performance that the box score badly undersells (59% snap share).
Overall usage: 19 official carries for 36 yards, 0 TD.
Rachaad White had a real dual-role weekend plus Washington’s opening score (42% snap share).
Overall usage: 8 carries for 35 yards, plus a true 2 targets/2 rec/11 yds/1 TD (his own real second catch, wiped by a teammate’s Illegal Shift penalty, is invisible in the official 1 tar/1 rec/6 yds/1 TD line).
White was questionable to start Q3, but returned by 6:05 of that quarter. Was very surprised he wasn’t used more as a receiver in this game. He has a shoulder injury and the team also signed Austin Ekeler.
Bill’s true workload (20 touches, 84 rushing yards, a touchdown) reads like a monster game that the official box score simply doesn’t show. Nothing about the pecking order changed. So although he was listed as a sell for me heading into Week 3 (which technically was correct because he performed poorly), there might be a buy-back opportunity here given the suppressed price.
Croskey-Merritt’s carries jumped (12 → 19 official, 20 true) with a true touchdown replacing a scoreless Week 2 outing — a real step forward in workload even before accounting for the wiped score. White’s carries held roughly flat (7 → 8) while his receiving role shrank back down from Week 2’s Mariota-driven spike (16.2% adjusted target share → 6.3% adjusted this week)
Washington extended its lead to 24-10 early in the third quarter on a 30-yard Marcus Mariota-to-Terry McLaurin score, but Seattle answered with one of the stranger touchdowns of the season: Eric Saubert caught a pass down to the WAS1, fumbled on the hit, and recovered his own fumble in the end zone for a touchdown (24-17).
Marcus Mariota went 19-of-31 for 183 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 0 interceptions (110.0 rating), taking 2 sacks. Add him if you need a QB based on the Commanders’ upcoming schedule.
McLaurin: Targets and share held roughly flat (27.0% adjusted → 28.1% adjusted), continuing as Washington’s clear passing-game priority — but for the second straight week, a real, meaningful gain of his was taken away by replay review (see Replay Reversal above). A genuinely unlucky two-week stretch layered on top of a stable, strong role.
Caught 6 of 9 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. The favorable splits for McLaurin with Mariota instead of Jayden Daniels (who will not go IR) proved to be correct. I’d presume Daniels returns after the team’s Week 7 bye week.
Again, check out the tool: The FantasyPros with or without tool: targets, yards, and TDs all increased with Mariota under center.
Per Next Gen Stats: TMC’s points-per-game average has ballooned to 11.9 with Mariota at QB since the start of 2025, up from 5.7 with Daniels in that span.
Stefon Diggs’ targets and share both up (16.2% → 21.9% adjusted) — though he didn’t find the end zone this week after scoring twice in Week 2. Caught 4 of 7 targets for 33 yards.
Center Lucas Patrick was questionable at the end of Q2, returned early in Q3. LB Leo Chenal was hurt during a Q2 (6:47) tackle, later ruled out of the game
Ben Sinnott (TE) was also injured on a Q2 (1:40) incomplete-pass target, returned by 1:24 of the same quarter.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs IND (Neutral – London) | Wk5 vs NYG (Home) | Wk6 at SF (Road) | Wk7 BYE.
Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Chase Brown
The two turnovers that decided this game (a muffed punt and a sack-fumble) both belonged to Cincinnati, overshadowing an efficient offensive day (3 touchdown passes, a perfect day on fourth down).
Cincinnati posted 352 total net yards on 56 plays (6.3 avg) and went 6-12 (50.0%) on third down and a perfect 2-2 (100%) on fourth down.
Joe Burrow went 28-of-37 for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 0 interceptions (123.9 rating), adding 2 carries for 13 yards and a lost fumble on the game’s final snap.
A clean, efficient day (his best completion rate of the two tracked weeks) undone only by the final sack-fumble that ended Cincinnati’s last chance to answer.
Ja’Marr Chase caught 9 of a team-high 12 targets for 98 yards and a touchdown.
His target share ticked up again week over week (29.0% → 32.4% adjusted) — remains Cincinnati’s unquestioned WR1 by role, even on a week his big-play average dipped slightly.
Tee Higgins caught 6 of 7 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown.
His target share nearly halved after leading the team in Week 2, but he was much more efficient with fewer looks (6-of-7 vs. 5-of-10) and scored his first touchdown.
Mike Gesicki caught all 3 of his targets for 37 yards and the go-ahead touchdown, a 25-yard connection on 4th-and-2.
Chase Brown carried 13 times for 61 yards, adding 1 catch on 3 targets for 8 yards.
Both his rushing and receiving workload shrank meaningfully week over week (20 carries/16.1% target share → 13 carries/8.1%).
Samaje Perine (CIN, RB) was injured on a Q3 kickoff return (2:37) and missed the rest of the third quarter, returning early in the fourth (14:18) — his workload for the day (3 carries, 1 target) was already light.
Brown is still the RB1 in this backfield but has not popped off…yet. Remains a buy-low, especially if this Perine injury is something more serious.
Dohnte Meyers was a real riser as the team’s new WR3 — target share more than quadrupled (3.2% → 13.5% adjusted), a name worth tracking into Week 4. Filled in with Andrei Iosivas, who was injured, and gained five targets.
Rookie Colbie Young was injured in the first quarter, was listed as doubtful to return after halftime, and was ultimately ruled out of the game in the third quarter (9:40) — his day ended after just 1 target (his lone catch came on Cincinnati’s opening offensive snap as he was a starter in 11 personnel). Not expected to play in Week 4.
A handful of additional in-game injury notes as well for Cincy to be aware of: Demetrius Knight, Jalen Davis, Bryan Cook.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs JAX (Home) | Wk5 at MIA (Road) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at BLT (Road).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sell DK Metcalf
This was a genuine back-and-forth game decided in the final two minutes — 6 lead changes and 3 ties, the closest, most competitive game this project has logged either team into. Pittsburgh struck first on the opening drive, a 4-play, 73-yard march capped by a 38-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Roman Wilson touchdown (0-7).
Pittsburgh posted 411 total net yards on 59 plays (7.0 avg) and went 7-12 (58.3%) on third down.
Rodgers went 19-of-34 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception (101.6 rating), adding 3 carries for 10 yards.
A significant bounce-back from a touchdown-less, 4-sack Week 2 — three different receivers found the end zone, and the protection held up much better (2 sacks, down from 4). The Bengals defense turned back into a pumpkin.
But seriously…take the Steelers’ offensive explosion with a grain of salt.
Per Next Gen Stats…Pittsburgh now has four games with 30 or more points over the last two seasons, three of them against the Bengals. Since 2025, the Steelers have scored 31.7 points per game against the Bengals and 20.9 points per game against all other opponents.
Jaylen Warren’s true workload this week is one of the biggest swings in Week 3 — 127 official rushing yards balloons to 225 true yards once two separate D.K. Metcalf holding penalties (11 yards and a massive 87 yards) are added back, and he carried the ball inside the CIN5 three separate times on the game’s final scoring drive without finding paydirt.
Warren carried 17 times for 127 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 49 yards (90% snap share).
Per Next Gen Stats, Warren set a career-high in snaps (53) and snap share.
With Rico Dowdle inactive, this instantly became a true one-man backfield — Warren handled every meaningful rushing snap and was clearly trusted in the red zone (three separate carries inside the 5 on the game’s final scoring drive), even though the touchdown didn’t come. Travis Homer and Lew Nichols combined for just 2 token carries.
Michael Pittman Jr.’s return and Germie Bernard’s collapse are two sides of the same coin — Pittman stepped right back into a real target share the moment he was activated, and Bernard’s target volume fell from 8 (Week 2, in Pittman’s absence) to just 1 this week.
Pittman Jr. caught 2 of 5 targets for 16 yards in his first game back from inactive status. Immediately reclaimed a real, true team-leading-tied share of this passing game (17.1% adjusted)
Roman Wilson caught 3 of 6 targets for a team-high 60 yards and the game’s opening touchdown (a 38-yard connection).
D.K. Metcalf caught 2 of 5 targets for 31 yards and his first touchdown of the season (a 6-yard score). His target share fell to its lowest mark of the two tracked weeks, but the touchdown is a meaningful signal after a 0-for-2 start to the year. If you could “sell” Metcalf after the TD score, I would.
No games with 41 or more yards thus far.
Pittman commands volume in this offense.
Darnell Washington led the TE room in snaps played (75%), going three for 67 yards on four targets. He split routes (50% versus 58%) with Pat Freiermuth (2 catches for 30 yards on four targets).
Next four matchups: Wk4 at CLV (Road, TNF) | Wk5 vs IND (Home) | Wk6 at TB (Road) | Wk7 at NO (Road)
Kansas City Chiefs
Sell Travis Kelce
Kansas City won despite being actually outgained in total plays (49 to Miami’s 67) and losing the time-of-possession battle 25:39 to 34:21 — the Chiefs were simply far more efficient (6.8 yards/play to Miami’s 4.9) and finished a clean 3-of-5 in the red zone (60%) to Miami’s 1-of-2 (50%).
Patrick Mahomes went 20-of-24 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 1 interception (119.8 rating), adding 1 carry for 1 yard.
An efficient, low-volume day (just 24 attempts) that still produced two scores.
Xavier Worthy: officially 2-2-20-0, true 3 targets/3 receptions/27 yards once his penalty-erased catch is added back.
Down in adjusted target share in each of the first three weeks of the season (22.2% → 14.9% → 11.5%).
Travis Kelce: Officially 2-2-59-1, but a true 3 targets/3 receptions/66 yards once his penalty-erased catch is added back, plus an 11-yard touchdown.
Still scored, but his target share was cut in half week over week (23.4% → 11.5% adjusted) as Rashee Rice’s role grew. Kelce caught a 48-yard pass on the first play of the game and didn’t get another target until the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Rice caught 7 of a team-high 9 targets for 88 yards, no touchdown. Rice’s target share nearly tripled from Week 2 (12.8% → 34.6%), while Kelce’s fell by half (23.4% → 11.5%) despite scoring a touchdown.
Per Next Gen Stats: Rice posted a career-high 39.1% target share with his third-highest air yards share ever (44.4%) in Week 3. If Weeks 1-2 were more about Rice’s health, he looks like a strong trade target.
I’d very much view Kelce as a sell-high after he scored. We have seen Rice hurt Kelce’s targets in the past, and the Chiefs TE can only run on monster YAC plays for so long given his age. He leads the NFL in YAC…and that just seems very unsustainable for the soon-to-be 37-year-old tight end.
Kenneth Walker III carried 18 times for 70 yards and a touchdown, and caught both of his targets for 3 yards and a second touchdown. Walker leads the NFL with 38 missed tackles forced on carries this season.
Emmett Johnson — Overall usage: 6 carries for 17 yards, 0 targets (after posting 2 carries/2 targets in Week 2). Needs to be rostered everywhere as a high-end handcuff.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at LV (Road) | Wk5 BYE | Wk6 vs LAC (Home) | Wk7 at SEA (Road).
Miami Dolphins
Add Ollie Gordon & Jaylen Wright & Chris Bell
Malik Willis went 20-of-36 for 210 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception (61.1 rating), adding 9 carries for 56 yards on the ground.
Ollie Gordon carried 17 times for 41 yards and a touchdown (true: 18 carries, 47 yards), adding 2 catches on 3 targets for 14 yards. Gordon’s 61 snaps (84%) were a true workhorse-level share, consistent with his 19 total touches (17 car/2 rec) after inheriting the lead role.
He wasn’t just getting more touches; he was on the field for nearly every offensive play once Achane left. No other RB played a snap or received a touch after Achane went down (NGS). And that was despite him getting banged up slightly in the third quarter.
Miami finished with the game’s longest drive by a wide margin — 17 plays, 91 yards, 9:27 off the clock — capped OFF a 3-yard Gordon touchdown run to tie it 7-7 late in the first quarter.
Took over as the clear lead back the moment De’Von Achane left, and his workload held up across both halves once he did. Achane’s injury was reported Monday as a torn ACL, knocking out the Dolphins star RB for the rest of the season.
Gordon in the 1st half: 8 carries for 28 yards and his touchdown.
Second-half usage: 9 official carries for 13 yards (plus the 1 true carry/6 true yards added back from the erased Q2 gain, which itself falls in the first half).
Still, context matters here. Jaylen Wright was inactive, even though he was previously Achane’s backup. I handle the handcuff index on FantasyPros, so I’ve been watching every backfield closely.
Wright is currently day-to-day(foot/stinger).
Dolphins HC Jeff Hafley was adamant that he would use all of his guys to fill the void left by Achane.
All running backs will have a role. Add both guys, with Gordon being the priority as the healthier of the two.
Just don’t go crazy, folks. Again, Vikings defense in Week 4. Woof.
On whether the Dolphins will operate with RB by committee without Achane, coach Jeff Hafley said: "They're all going to have their roles."
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) September 28, 2026
Blowing your FAAB on an RB on the worst team in football who was 3rd-string before Week 3…
What could go wrong? #PhinsUp
— Andrew Erickson
Malik Washington caught 5 of 10 targets for 56 yards; his true line (11 targets, 6 catches, 70 yards, 1 touchdown) is significantly better than the official box score shows once you add back his called-back touchdown.
His target volume nearly doubled week over week, and with Achane sidelined and Caleb Douglas inactive, he looks like a real beneficiary of this offense’s target vacuum. Washington also got two carries.
Douglas’s continued absence (inactive this week after a Week 2 ankle injury) opened up real volume for Chris Bell, who jumped from 1 target in Week 2 to 7 this week (18% target share). Four catches for 67 yards while running a route on a season-high 69% of dropbacks. Totaled 85 incomplete air yards (30% of air yards). Add the rookie in deeper formats.
Greg Dulcich caught 5 of 7 targets for 55 yards — his best game of the season by target volume, nearly double his Week 2 target count. One of his targets this week ended in a real, penalty-erased interception rather than a catch. Usage also bumped up versus last week as the Dolphins TE ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks.
Rookie Kevin Coleman: a new name in the target mix (4 targets, 10.3% adjusted) but inefficient (1 catch).
Next four matchups: Wk4 at MIN (Road) | Wk5 vs CIN (Home) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at NYJ (Road).
Tennessee Titans
Buy Carnell Tate
Tennessee’s offense was a near-shutout for a full half (1 first down, 54 total net yards, 0 points through 30 minutes) before finding real traction in the second half.
Cam Ward went 23-of-36 for 181 yards and a touchdown, with 1 interception (74.0 rating), adding 1 carry for 2 yards.
Tony Pollard carried 17 times for 74 yards and caught all 4 of his targets for 22 yards.
His workload rose again week over week on both the ground and through the air, and he shouldered the bulk of the work (three carries inside the New York 12) on Tennessee’s touchdown drive.
Pollard’s role keeps growing — his carries, rushing yards, and receiving work all rose again week over week.
Second-half usage: A dramatic jump — 12 carries for 63 yards, 3 targets/3 receptions/23 yards — as the offense finally got moving and leaned on him repeatedly.
Tyjae Spears was questionable entering the game. Overall usage: 3 carries for 5 yards, 0 official targets — but a true 1 target/1 reception/-1 yard once the Daniel Bellinger-penalty-erased catch is added back.
Pollard/Spears split is far tighter by snaps (53%/47%) than by touch count.
Spears was briefly updated to questionable during the Q4 two-minute warning but returned within the same series. Still, you can’t trust his health.
Pollard is the back you want, and the Titans are leaning on him more. The ceiling is just capped…running behind this offensive line that lost more starters (Fernando Carmona and Jackson Slater) in Week 3.
Wan’Dale Robinson caught 7 of 11 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown — and a true line of 8 catches on 12 targets for 85 yards once a penalty erased a 28-yard gain. Scored the only touchdown of the game for either team.
Carnell Tate caught 6 of 9 targets for 58 yards, no touchdown. Continues to be heavily and consistently targeted (23.7% adjusted share, in line with last week’s 23.8%) without a score through three weeks (drew an EZ target in Week 3). I like buying talented rookie WRs on the cheap.
Gunnar Helm remained TE1 and drew an end-zone target and a red-zone target.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at BLT (Road) | Wk5 vs HST (Home) | Wk6 at IND (Road) | Wk7 vs CLV (Home).
New York Giants
Price Check Malik Nabers
New York leaned on the run about as hard as it has all season (33 team carries, 138 yards) and still came away with only field goals — the offense was 0-for-2 in the red zone, including a near-miss at the Tennessee 2-yard line that didn’t produce a touchdown.
This was a low-scoring, weather-affected slog decided by field position and red-zone failures rather than explosive offense — exactly what the 12-7 final and the rain suggest.
Jameis Winston went 14-of-22 for 118 yards, 0 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (77.5 rating), adding 2 carries for 14 yards.
A cleaner, more accurate week than his Week 2 relief stint (11-of-27, 1 INT, 37.7 rating), but still without a touchdown pass in either tracked week — a game-manager role in a run-forward offense.
He starts next week, but that might not be the long-term plan after the Giants acquired JJ McCarthy from the Vikings in exchange for a fifth-round draft pick.
Cam Skattebo carried 20 times for 60 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 40 yards — a true line of 23 carries for 77 yards once three penalty-erased runs are added back, his heaviest workload of the season (78% snap share).
Had real, repeated chances near the goal line (a direct-snap carry from the 5, a stopped carry at the 2) but the offense came away with field goals both times.
Skattebo’s workload jumped hard — carries up (12 official/20 official, true 23) and total touches climbing across the board, with a big 30-yard catch driving his receiving yardage up (19 → 40) despite a slightly lower catch rate.
First-half usage: 13 carries for 18 yards (1.4 YPC), 3 targets/2 receptions/37 yards.
Second-half usage: Just 7 carries for 42 yards (6.0 YPC)—far more efficient per carry, even on a lighter workload, as New York protected its lead.
Per Next Gen Stats, Skattebo generated a season-high 74 yards after contact (and the second-most of his career). His 30.0% forced-missed-tackle rate was the third-highest single-game rate of his career. Skattebo has gained 92.3% of his rushing yards after contact in his career, the third-highest rate among players with at least 75 carries since last season.
Seems like the Giants are fine running Skat as the engine of their offense with Winston at the helm.
Najee Harris carried 9 times for 52 yards, no targets — a true line of 11 carries for 51 yards once two penalty-erased carries are added back (21% snap share).
More than doubled his Week 2 workload (4 carries) with Devin Singletary inactive.
First-half usage: 5 carries for 36 yards, including an 11-yard gain into Tennessee territory. Second-half usage: 4 carries for 16 yards
Malik Nabers caught 5 of 6 targets for 26 yards, no touchdown.
A real bounce-back in both volume and catch rate after his Week 2 line was compromised by an in-game injury/QB injury.
But still not good overall.
Per Next Gen Stats, Nabers had a career-low 0.9 air yards per target against the Titans. That mark was the ninth-lowest by a WR with at least five targets in a game since the start of 2025. Nabers never had a game with fewer than 5.5 air yards per target until Sunday, which was admittedly a dreadful weather game. Still, his 28.6% target share led the Giants, though his season-long mark of 23.2% still trails Isaiah Likely’s 28.0%.
Nabers could see more downfield looks and productivity with McCarthy in New York — he led the NFL with 9.3 air yards per attempt last season with the Vikings. However, his 0.05 EPA per dropback on downfield throws ranked 33rd of 33 qualified QBs.
We broke down the McCarthy move on the TailGate Monday show, and bringing in McCarthy does at least create another path for Nabers to find success in 2026. Seems like the fun Winston is not going to be a thing anymore.
Nabers is a tough player to pinpoint as a buy or sell, given how good he is. But the QB play might be a serious issue. And even though there’s a case to be made for McCarthy aiding Nabers…he also nuked Justin Jefferson in 2025. I think you have to do a price check on Nabers.
If you’re a team that needs wins now…I don’t think Nabers will help you much. But if you can wait it out… it makes him a prime buy-low target.
Again, I am always in the camp, after doing trade shows and articles for the last several seasons, that you buy the dip on an elite WR when the starting QB goes down. Works more often than it fails. But considering Jefferson was the downside case of this last season (with McCarthy at QB), you can sense my trepidation.
Likely caught 2 of 5 targets for 13 yards, no touchdown. But usage was very strong at 88% route participation.
A real target-share decline for a second straight week (30.3% → 22.7% adjusted) after leading the team in Week 1 and Week 2 — still New York’s #2 pass-catching option by share.
It was also confirmed by HC John Harbaugh that EDGE Brian Burns tore his ACL.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs ARZ (Home) | Wk5 at WAS (Road) | Wk6 vs NO (Home) | Wk7 at HOU (Road)
Houston Texans
Buy Nico Collins & Sell David Montgomery
Houston won the turnover battle 3-0 (two Daniel Jones fumbles plus a goal-line interception) and still lost by two points — the real story behind a deceptively close final score was this offense’s inability to consistently sustain drives (24:47 time of possession, only 51 plays).
Houston was the more efficient scoring-zone team on paper (2-for-3 red zone, a perfect 2-for-2 on goal-to-go), but was outgained 300-223 in total net yards and simply ran 20 fewer plays.
C.J. Stroud completed 16-of-27 for 167 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, adding 2 carries for 10 yards.
David Montgomery rushed 11 times for 33 yards and caught 2 passes for 15 yards.
A partial rebound from last week’s total second-half shutout, but still a front-loaded role (8 of 11 carries came before halftime) with zero goal-line work this week.
Houston’s backfield split shows up cleanly in snaps too: David Montgomery’s 34/63% offensive snap share is nearly double Woody Marks’ 20/37%.
Marks ran 5 times for 15 yards and a touchdown, adding a catch on his only target for 6 yards. His true workload (6 carries, 27 yards once a holding-erased 12-yard gain is counted) came almost entirely in the second half, and he was the back Houston trusted at the actual goal line — including at the 1-yard line before he scored.
Marks scored Houston’s game-tying-at-the-time 1-yard touchdown — but only after being stopped for a 5-yard gain down to the Colts’ 1-yard line the play before.
Montgomery’s workload partially rebounded from last week’s total second-half shutout (6 carries, zero after halftime) to 11 carries this week, though he still saw only 3 second-half carries — still a diminished role relative to his Week 1 workhorse form.
Per Next Gen Stats: Montgomery’s 2.8 yards per carry is the third-lowest mark among qualified RBs, while Marks’ 3.0 YPC is the sixth-lowest. Montgomery has also posted a 24.3% rushing success rate, the second-lowest among RBs.
And if Monty no longer has the red zone role locked in? Game over. Per NGS…Marks played five snaps and received two touches, including the go-ahead scoring plunge on the goal line. Montgomery only played two snaps inside the 20 and none on the goal line.
Dalton Schultz caught 3 of 3 targets for 30 yards. A sharp cooldown from last week’s 14-target explosion.
Xavier Hutchinson hauled in 3 of 6 targets for 51 yards, Houston’s leading receiver by yardage.
Hutchinson’s target share rose (15.5% → 20.7% adjusted) despite fewer raw targets (9 → 6), purely because of Houston’s much lower overall pass volume this week. Hutchinson was injured on a 17-yard catch in the fourth quarter (3:21) but returned before the final offensive snap.
Jared Wayne’s true target share rose again (12.1% → 17.2% adjusted) on a big 20-yard reception.
The team hopes Nico Collins will return in Week 4. They need him bad. Buy.
Foster Moreau’s targets doubled (2 true → 4), and he scored his first touchdown.
Jaylin Noel is still BURIED in snaps.
Azeez Al-Shaair also got hurt but returned; DT Mario Edwards was hurt in the fourth quarter with a knee injury.
The Texans started 0-3 for the second consecutive season after their Week 3 loss at Indianapolis.
Houston went on to win 12 of its last 14 games in 2025 to finish 12-5 and secure a playoff spot. Just seven teams in NFL history have gone on to make the playoffs after starting 0-3, with Houston accounting for the last two instances (2018 and 2025), according to Next Gen Stats.
The Colts defeated the Texans in Week 3 despite turning the ball over three times and generating zero takeaways.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs DAL (Home) | Wk5 at TEN (Road) | Wk6 at JAX (Neutral – London) | Wk7 vs NYG (Home).
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Josh Downs & Sell/Add Keenan Allen
Indianapolis won by controlling the clock and the field, not by finishing drives with touchdowns — 35:13 time of possession and 71 total plays, but only 1-of-3 in the red zone, leaning on Spencer Shrader’s leg (4-for-4, including makes of 58 and 53 yards) for the bulk of the scoring.
Daniel Jones went 24-of-36 for 235 yards and a touchdown, with 1 interception (the game-saving INT at the Colts’ 1), and lost 2 of his 3 fumbles.
A genuinely turnover-prone day (3 total giveaways) that the offense survived only because Houston couldn’t consistently capitalize on the resulting field position.
Jonathan Taylor carried 23 times for 68 yards with no touchdown, adding 2 catches on 3 targets for 4 yards. His true workload (24 carries, 92 yards) is nearly identical to his Week 2 total, but a real 24-yard gain that would have set up 1st-and-goal from the 6 was erased by his own team’s penalty — a positive regression signal for the goal line even in a scoreless week for him personally. He also played 85% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps (60 of 71), reinforcing the workhorse role his carry total already shows.
First-half usage: Just 9 carries for 19 yards in the first half, ballooning to 14 carries for 49 official yards (73 true) after the break as Indianapolis leaned on him to control the clock
Tyler Warren caught 9 of 10 targets for 55 yards.
A real riser in both raw targets and share for a second straight week (21.2% → 27.8% adjusted) — an every-week floor piece regardless of the touchdown column.
Keenan Allen caught 6 of 9 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. This might be the best game he has all year (not to mention he still might get axed for 3 games because of his offseason DUI). Add him and flip him, because I think he’s still, at best, the No. 3 pass-catcher on this team.
His 30 routes ranked fourth on the team in Week 3. But if you can’t deal him…hold him given his Week 4 matchup versus the Commanders.
Josh Downs led Indianapolis in targets (11, 30.6% adjusted share) despite a lower offensive snap share (48/68%) than both Laquon Treadwell (79%) and Allen (52/73%) — his target volume is holding up on comparatively fewer snaps than those two. Downs caught 5 of a team-high 11 targets for 77 yards. His target share climbed for a second straight week (27.3% → 30.6% adjusted), even as his catch rate dipped. He left more than some production on the table with 114 incomplete air yards (62% air yards share). Also ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks (resuming his new full-time role).
Per Next Gen Stats: Downs leads the team in both categories in 2026, with his 25.5% target share ranking 11th among WRs in the NFL and his 43.7% air yards share ranking seventh among all players; both would be career highs for Downs.
Treadwell logged the Colts’ second-highest offensive snap share among non-OL/QB players (56/79%, trailing only Tyler Warren) but drew just 1 target (2.8% adjusted share).
Next four matchups: Wk4 at WAS (Neutral – London) | Wk5 at PIT (Road) | Wk6 vs TEN (Home) | Wk7 at MIN (Road).
New York Jets
Add Braelon Allen & Geno Smith & Isaiah Davis
Geno Smith went 31-of-37 for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 0 interceptions, adding 2 carries for 12 yards and 1 lost fumble (a fourth-quarter strip-sack that sealed the game for Detroit).
Breece Hall carried 13 times for 32 yards and caught all 3 targets for 23 yards on 32 of 66 offensive snaps (48%) before leaving with a fourth-quarter injury that ended his day.
All of his receiving work came in the first half; his Week 4 health status is the swing variable for the entire New York backfield.
Braelon Allen (34/52%) logged more total offensive snaps than Hall (32/48%), even though Hall was the clear lead back before his fourth-quarter injury — a function of Allen absorbing New York’s final two drives once Hall left.
Allen carried 4 times for 14 yards and caught all 3 of his official targets for 3 yards (a true 4 targets/14 yards once a penalty-erased 11-yard catch is added back), on 34 of 66 offensive snaps (52%) — actually more total snaps than Hall logged in his fuller workload. Every one of his 4 carries and his 3 official targets came after Hall left the game.
Became the only healthy NYJ back once Hall was injured — every carry and target after that point went through him, making him the presumptive Week 4 backfield lead if Hall misses time. Hall is considered week-to-week after an MRI on Monday revealed that his thigh injury isn’t as significant as feared, Ian Rapoport and Adam Schefter of ESPN report.
Allen absorbed every snap of New York’s final two drives after Hall left. His true first target of the game (the erased one) came in the first half, before Hall was even hurt — meaning Allen had some real receiving usage baked in before the injury reshuffled the backfield entirely. He does play on third downs.
Allen also ranks 2nd in rushing success rate this season. Isaiah Davis will likely have a role in Hall’s absence, so add him in deeper formats.
Kenyon Sadiq’s role as New York’s clear #2 target (8 tar/21.1% adjusted share, 105 yds, TD) came on just 38/58% of offensive snaps — well below Garrett Wilson’s and Isaiah Williams’s snap shares, underscoring how efficient his usage was on the plays he was actually in for. Played most snaps for the Jets tight ends with Mason Taylor out.
He caught 7 of 8 targets for 105 yards and his first receiving touchdown of the season, running a route on 59% of dropbacks.
Williams played the second-most offensive snaps on the Jets (59/89%) despite the lowest adjusted target share of any starter (2 tar/5.3%). Williams caught 1 of 2 targets for 21 yards (assisted by replay on the reception itself). Cardio king.
Garrett Wilson caught 10 of a team-high 13 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown (35% target share). He had a concussion scare late in the game but was cleared.
Jeremy Ruckert caught 5 of 5 targets for 39 yards and his first touchdown of the season. Target share nearly tripled week over week.
OG Dylan Parham was ruled out at the start of the 4th quarter (knee).
Next four matchups: Wk4 at CHI (Road) | Wk5 vs CLV (Home) | Wk6 at NE (Road) | Wk7 vs MIA (Home).
Detroit Lions
Hold Jameson Williams
Jahmyr Gibbs has played over 70% of offensive snaps in every game in 2026 and is averaging a career-high 74.9% snap share and 55.7% touch rate (Next Gen Stats).
Gibbs carried 20 times for 99 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught 7 of 8 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown, on just 45 of 65 offensive snaps (69%).
His true workload is bigger still — 21 carries, 117 yards once a penalty-erased 18-yard gain is added back — and all 3 of his touchdowns came in the second half alone. That production on a 69% snap share (with Sione Vaki taking the other 31%) points to elite per-snap efficiency rather than a pure volume-driven workhorse rate
Jared Goff went 25-of-32 for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 0 interceptions, adding 4 carries for 6 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 4 of 8 targets for 19 yards and a touchdown.
A real down week by his standards — target share fell from 31.7% to 25.0% adjusted, and every one of his targets came in the first half; he didn’t see the ball at all after halftime. He received medical attention during the contest.
Sam LaPorta brought in 3 of 4 targets for 44 yards, no touchdowns. Target share fell (19.5% → 12.5% adjusted).
Jameson Williams’ target count held exactly flat (4 → 4, share 12.2% → 12.5% adjusted), but his catch rate snapped back hard (2-of-4 → 4-of-4), and his yardage nearly doubled (33 → 49). He hasn’t popped yet…but you know it will eventually.
Isaac TeSlaa caught 3 of 3 targets for 66 yards, headlined by a 49-yard connection — his long play of the season.
The Lions defense has allowed two TDs to TEs every single game so far this season. Play all TEs versus the Panthers.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at CAR (Road) | Wk5 at ARZ (Road) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 vs GB (Home).
Los Angeles Chargers
Sell Omarion Hampton & Justin Herbert & Add Keaton Mitchell & Tre Harris
Chargers are going to charge.
Buffalo forced 5 turnovers, and the Bolts still can’t win or cover a 7-point-plus spread.
Justin Herbert completed 20 of 34 passes for 226 yards and a touchdown, with 1 official interception, adding 4 carries for 17 yards.
A real step forward in ball security from Week 2’s chaotic 3-sack/3-fumble day (down to 2 sacks and zero fumbles), though his true turnover count (2 INTs) is worse than the box score shows once you include the penalty-erased pick at the goal line.
Time to cut bait on the Chargers QB. The schedule is brutal, and I’ve seen nothing through 3 games from this offense that suggests an imminent rebound.
Tre Harris’ 58% snap share is well below his team-leading 20.0% adjusted target share — he out-earned both Ladd McConkey (88% snaps) and Quentin Johnston (87% snaps) in targets despite playing barely more than half their offensive reps.
Caught 6 of a team-high 7 targets for 76 yards (three inside the red zone).
Per Next Gen Stats, Harris had the best game of his young career on Sunday, posting career highs in targets (7), receptions (6), and yards (76), all of which led the Chargers.
Ladd McConkey: A modest riser (10.7% → 14.3% adjusted), and cracked 60+ yards for the first time this season.
Quentin Johnston: Target share actually fell slightly (21.4% → 17.1% adjusted). Brutal drop, and most of his yards came late in the first half. Like QJ’s on-field play (drop city), time to send him to waivers.
Oronde Gadsden’s 57% snap share clears starter Hayden Rucci’s 41% at tight end, confirming Gadsden is the real receiving option at the position even though he was held to zero receptions on his (true 4) targets. The second-year TE ran a route on 72% of the dropbacks.
Alec Ingold: From zero targets in the Week 2 game book to a real 4-target, 3-catch, 35-yard role this week. Fullbacks are back.
Targets this season
FB Alec Ingold – 4
RB Omarion Hampton – 3— Andrew Erickson
Keaton Mitchell rushed 8 times for 52 yards and caught all 3 of his targets for -5 yards and a touchdown. Played 26 of 69 offensive snaps (38%), which marked a season high.
Week over week (vs. Week 2 vs. LV): Target volume rose (1 → 3 targets, 3.6% → 8.6% adjusted share), and he scored his first touchdown of the season.
His receiving role is growing (1 → 3 targets week over week), and he now has a goal-line score to show for it, coming immediately after Omarion Hampton was stopped a yard short.
Hampton carried 15 times for 56 yards and added 1 catch on 1 target (only 6 routes run).
Didn’t find the end zone, but was the one stopped at the BUF1-yard line on the Chargers’ opening touchdown drive. Totaled 6 red-zone carries.
Overall usage: 15 carries for 56 yards, 1 target/0 rec. No fumbles. Played 29 of 69 offensive snaps (42%), which marked a season-low snap share.
First-half usage: 8 carries for 22 yards, 1 target (0 rec). Second-half usage: 7 carries for 34 yards (better per-carry efficiency), 0 targets.
Carries fell (23 true → 15), and he didn’t score after finding the end zone last week.
Per Next Gen Stats: Mitchell forced eight missed tackles on 11 touches – for a whopping 72.7% missed tackle forced rate, the second-highest rate by a Charger with at least 10 touches in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Kimani Vidal — Minimal role: 1 carry/6 yds, 3 targets/1 rec/14 yds. But he showed up on 3rd downs – playing on 40% of the third-down snaps. Mitchell also played 40% of the third-down snaps.
No bueno for Hampton’s future receiving usage.
CB Donte Jackson got hurt and did not return.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at SEA (Road) | Wk5 vs DEN (Home) | Wk6 at KC (Road) | Wk7 BYE.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen went 16-of-26 for 204 yards with 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions through the air, adding 8 carries for 22 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns, and lost a fumble on a sack that was overturned on replay.
James Cook carried 24 times for 154 yards and a touchdown, adding 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 targets. Also lost a fumble on the first drive.
Real, continued workload growth (21 → 24 carries week over week), with his production skewing to the second half (95 of 154 yards) as Buffalo leaned on the run late.
DJ Moore’s 64% snap share (42 of 66) still produced a team-high 10 targets — the most target-efficient snap share on Buffalo’s offense, confirming his healthy return restored the WR1 role outright. Caught 6 of a team-high 10 targets for 67 yards (37% target share).
Keon Coleman caught 1 of 2 targets for 37 yards. His Week 2 breakout (6 targets, 63 yards) evaporated with Moore back healthy.
Ty Johnson’s 23% snap share (15 of 66) is the lowest of any Buffalo skill player who touched the ball, yet produced a true 5-target/93-yard/1-TD line once his called-back touchdown is restored. A 43-yard touchdown reception was wiped out by his own team’s holding penalty.
Dalton Kincaid’s 67% snap share ties Cook for the second-most offensive reps on Buffalo’s roster, trailing on Khalil Shakir (73%).
Kincaid’s target share fell hard (27.3% → 11.1% adjusted, 8-9 true targets → 3) even though his per-target efficiency stayed strong (19.0 avg) — a real step back in volume with Moore back healthy. He also lost a fumble. Shakir: Roughly flat-to-down (18.2% → 11.1% adjusted, 6 → 3 targets) — the passing game simply had less volume to go around this week.
CB Christian Benford was ruled out and did not return.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs NE (Home) | Wk5 at LAR (Road) | Wk6 at LV (Road) | Wk7 BYE.
Carolina Panthers
Buy Tetairoa McMillan & Chuba Hubbard & Add Darren Waller
Bryce Young went 26-of-48 for 291 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception (70.7 rating).
Chuba Hubbard carried 19 times for 82 yards and caught 4 of 4 targets for 28 yards, while playing 65 of Carolina’s 77 offensive snaps (84%) — an every-down workload with no real competition for it. Played his highest snap rate since Week 15 of 2024.
His true workload is bigger than the box score shows — a real 30-yard catch was wiped by a Cleveland defensive penalty, pushing his true receiving line to 5 targets/58 yards. A back trending toward a bigger receiving role two weeks running, even without a touchdown this week.
First-half usage: Just 10 carries for 18 yards (1.8 YPC) and, more strikingly, zero counted first-half targets — his only first-half look was the wiped 30-yard catch. Second-half usage: 9 carries for 64 yards (7.1 YPC) and all 4 of his official catches (28 yards).
Darren Waller played just 39 offensive snaps (51%), fewer than starter Tommy Tremble’s 37 (48%) — yet out-targeted Tremble 8-to-4 and led Carolina in targets overall in Week 3. Darren Waller caught 5 of 8 targets for 51 yards (16% target share).
A real jump in raw target volume from Week 2’s light workload (3 targets). Lions in Week 4. Add him and start him.
Tetairoa McMillan caught 2 of 5 targets for 17 yards. Saw two more end-zone targets but didn’t find paydirt. Leads all WRs in end-zone targets without a TD yet. Every other WR with similar end-zone volume has scored at least 3 times this season.
A real step back after leading the team in targets in Week 2 (10). The lack of volume was more about the Browns’ defense than T-Mac struggling. They have strong perimeter CBs like Denzel Ward.
Young also battled an ankle injury throughout the game, which affected the velocity of his throws. Something to monitor heading into Week 4 versus the Lions.
Jalen Coker caught 2 of 4 targets for 18 yards before leaving with a quad injury that ruled him out by the third quarter. Potentially going to miss some time but has not been ruled out of Week 4’s matchup versus the Lions.
Brycen Tremayne caught 4 of 6 targets for 83 yards, including a 31-yard gain. Filled in for Xavier Legette. Completely invisible in the Week 2 box score (zero targets) — this week he was Carolina’s leading receiver by yardage.
A.J. Dillon’s 12 snaps (16%) line up with all of his touches came after halftime
John Metchie caught 2 of 5 targets for 19 yards and Carolina’s only offensive touchdown (an 8-yard score); the ensuing 2-point conversion attempt failed.
CB Jaycee Horn was injured during Cleveland’s game-winning touchdown play. Will be going on IR (missing at least the next 6 weeks). Comes at a really tough time as the Panthers’ other starting perimeter CB, Mike Jackson, also got hurt in Week 3 with a groin injury.
LG Damien Lewis also got banged up during this game, later confirmed as an elbow injury. A rough, twice-interrupted day for Carolina’s starting left guard on a line that allowed 3 sacks.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs DET (Home, SNF) | Wk5 BYE | Wk6 at PHI (Road) | Wk7 vs TB (Home).
Cleveland Browns
Hold KC Concepcion & Denzel Boston
Deshaun Watson went 16-of-30 for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 0 official interceptions (88.8 rating), adding 11 carries for 45 yards on scrambles.
Quinshon Judkins’ workhorse rushing role (19 true carries) came on only 36 of Cleveland’s 70 offensive snaps (51%) — a near-even snap split with backup Raheim Sanders (30 snaps, 43%) despite Judkins’ touch volume dwarfing Sanders’ (19 carries to 1, plus 2 targets to 5).
Judkins carried 18 times for 70 yards and caught 2 of 2 targets for 9 yards, but played just 36 of Cleveland’s 70 offensive snaps (51%) — a near-even split with backup Sanders (30 snaps, 43%)
First-half usage for Judkins: 11 official carries for 45 yards (true: 12/49). Second-half usage: 7 carries for 25 yards — a heavier first-half workload as Cleveland leaned on him to control the clock with a lead.
Still not great usage to see Judkins cede so much work to Sanders after taking on a larger receiving role back in Week 2.
Cleveland’s true target leader, K.C. Concepcion (60 snaps, 86%), actually played fewer snaps than Denzel Boston (62, 89%) despite drawing 11 true targets (31.4% target share) to Boston’s 5.
Boston caught 2 of 4 targets for 41 yards, plus the game-winning two-point conversion catch (not reflected in his official line).
A quieter box score than Week 2’s breakout (95 yards, 1 TD), though his true 64 receiving yards — once a holding-erased 23-yard catch is added back — reads much closer to a normal week than the raw numbers suggest.
Concepcion caught ONLY 2 of 9 targets for 9 yards. The target count exploded (6 → 9 official, 11 true) but his production didn’t follow (2-of-9 officially, 3-of-11 true) — including a real, would-be end-zone-adjacent interception erased by penalty.
Harold Fannin caught 7 of 9 targets for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns (26% target share).
Continued climbing in target share for a second straight week and delivered his first two scores of the season
Jerry Jeudy played 36 snaps (51%) — half of Cleveland’s offense — yet finished with a blank official stat line and only 1 true target
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs PIT (Home TNF) | Wk5 at NYJ (Road) | Wk6 vs BLT (Home) | Wk7 at TEN (Road).
New England Patriots
Add Mack Hollins
According to Next Gen Stats:
Drake Maye set a new career-low in fantasy scoring (in games he has started and hasn’t left due to injury) for the third straight week, mustering a drab 3.76 points in Week 3 against the Jaguars. Maye has been arguably the worst starting QB in football through three weeks, and the fantasy numbers reflect that. Among QBs who have started every game in 2026, he ranks dead last in passer rating (58.6) and passing EPA (-16.9) while leading the league with seven turnovers (six interceptions and a fumble). He has 21.6 points this season – he cleared that figure in seven of his 17 games in 2025.
The Pats QB has seven turnovers through the first three games of the season, the most by any player in the NFL.
Keep in mind that the Patriots drove into Jaguars territory on seven occasions but failed to score a touchdown on any of those drives. The Patriots out-gained Jacksonville by 2 yards despite the 29-point final margin. But the turnovers destroyed them.
Maye turnovers (2 INTs, 1 lost fumble) plus a called-back Maye 21-yard rushing touchdown turned a somewhat even fight into a complete blowout.
Also, according to NGS: LT Will Campbell did not allow pressure on 38 pass-blocking snaps, his first game with over 30 pass blocks and zero pressures allowed. Campbell faced Josh Hines-Allen 16 times, and Hines-Allen recorded only one pressure in the game (4.5% pressure rate).
Even with Campbell’s strong performance, the Jaguars generated pressure on 58.4% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks, the third-highest pressure rate he has faced in the regular season.
Maye averaged a 3.42-second time to throw, the second-longest of his career, with 25.0% of his attempts coming outside the pocket, the fourth-highest rate of his career. Outside the pocket, Maye went 3-for-7 for 57 yards and an interception, totaling eight scramble dropbacks.
Maye needs to be benched until further notice…because the schedule does bring back cupcakes starting in Week 6.
TreyVeon Henderson’s complete second-half disappearance (8 first-half touches, 0 second-half touches). Henderson (37% snap share, 23/63) was clearly out-snapped by Rhamondre Stevenson (52%, 33/63).
Stevenson carried 7 times for 22 yards and caught 3 of 3 targets for 16 yards.
Remained the starter and quietly out-touched Henderson this week, including all of New England’s meaningful second-half rushing work outside of garbage time. His one carry inside the 5 (JAX2, on 2nd-and-4 with 1:07 left in the half) set up the Maye red-zone interception on the next snap.
Henderson carried 8 times for 23 yards and caught his only target for 6 yards, no touchdowns. A real step back from his Week 2 workload (16 carries, 76 yards, a touchdown).
Mack Hollins’ 76% snap share (48/63) is the highest of any New England skill player, reinforcing (rather than merely coinciding with) his emergence as the clear #1 target (9 targets, 27.3% adjusted share, a new season high in yards). Hollins caught 6 of a team-high 9 targets for 87 yards, no touchdowns.
Maybe I was just a week too early on Mack “Money ” Hollins being the No. 1 in this offense without A.J. Brown. Per Next Gen Stats, Hollins is averaging a solid 2.3 yards per route while posting a 19.5% target share, both of which lead the team (min. 20 routes).
Romeo Doubs caught 3 of 4 targets for 49 yards; his true line (5 targets, 62 yards) is better once a real 13-yard catch erased by his own penalty is counted.
Target share held roughly flat week over week without a repeat of last week’s 63-yard explosive play.
Hunter Henry’s target share collapsed (21.7% → 6.1% adjusted, 5 → 2 targets), his quietest game in 2026 despite Eli Raridon being inactive.
Demario Douglas: A real riser in raw target volume (2 official/3 true → 5) and share (13.0% → 15.2% adjusted), though his catch rate cratered (1-of-5 this week vs. 1-of-2 last week) — his one catch (38 yds) was still the team’s longest play.
OG Greg Van Roten was injured in the second quarter. DT Christian Barmore also got banged up but returned.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at BUF (Road) | Wk5 vs LV (Home) | Wk6 vs NYJ (Home) | Wk7 at CHI (Road)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Bhayshul Tuten
Jacksonville was flawless in scoring position — a perfect 5-for-5 in the red zone and 4-for-4 on goal-to-go snaps.
Trevor Lawrence went 19-of-29 for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 1 interception.
A mostly clean, efficient day overall, capped by a 15-yard scramble down to the New England 1-yard line that set up Jacksonville’s clinching touchdown the next snap (Lawrence should have scored a rushing TD to bolster his fantasy stats).
Brian Thomas Jr. played just 37% of offensive snaps (23/62) — a modest snap share to go with his target collapse (8 targets in Week 2 to 1 this week). Played the same number of snaps as Josh Cameron (who scored).
Jakobi Meyers played 81% of offensive snaps (50/62), tying for the team’s highest WR snap share. Meyers caught 7 of a team-high 8 targets (28%) for 64 yards and a touchdown after a near-invisible role in Weeks 1+2.
Per Next Gen Stats: Meyers now leads the Jags in routes (75), and Trevor Lawrence has a 156.3 passer rating when targeting him — the second-highest mark of any QB-WR duo in the league (min. 10 targets).
Parker Washington caught 3 of 5 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown; his true line (6 targets, 47 yards, 2 touchdowns) is even better once a penalty-erased 7-yard touchdown catch is restored. Technically speaking, he would not have scored twice…given that after his first TD was wiped off the board, he caught a TD on the next play.
Bhayshul Tuten rushed 15 times for 73 yards and a touchdown, and added 2 catches for 17 yards on 2 targets.
The unquestioned bell-cow for a third straight week; his true workload (16 carries, 79 yards) keeps climbing, and his touchdown came directly off Lawrence’s goal-line scramble/knee down rather than his own red-zone carry this time. His 48% snap share (30/62) topped Jacksonville’s RB room by a wide margin.
First-half usage: 8 carries for 48 yards, 0 TD. Second-half usage: 7 carries for 25 yards and the game-sealing touchdown. The coaches are echoing that Tuten continues to build week after week. This year, Tuten’s 21 missed tackles rank in the top five of all RBs (Next Gen Stats).
Chris Rodriguez rushed 8 times for 37 yards and his first touchdown of the season.
A real riser in volume and production, and increasingly Jacksonville’s clear short-yardage/power-down complement to Tuten (converted 3rd-and-1 and 3rd-and-2 carries this game) even without a receiving role. His 21% snap share (13/62) sits well behind Tuten’s 48% but clear of Ameer Abdullah’s mop-up-only 11%.
Brenton Strange: A real riser (9.4% → 16.7% adjusted, true 3 → 5 targets), his most-targeted game. 3 catches for 32 yards.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at CIN (Road) | Wk5 vs PHI (Neutral – London) | Wk6 vs HOU (Neutral – London) | Wk7 BYE.
Arizona Cardinals
Buy Jeremiyah Love & Michael Wilson
Jacoby Brissett went 38-of-52 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns, 0 interceptions (98.2 rating), adding 4 carries for 4 yards and a rushing touchdown.
Tyler Allgeier’s 36% snap share is more substantial than his 2-carry, 4-target touch count suggests. He carried twice for -1 yard and caught all 4 targets for 10 yards, despite a 36% snap share (31 of 87) far larger than his touch count. His one real carry attempt went for a 3-yard loss on a failed goal-to-go snap, and he had zero second-half touches of any kind, even while still on the field for over a third of Arizona’s snaps — Jeremiyah Love’s backfield now, clearly.
Love carried 21 times for 90 yards and caught all 5 of his targets for 19 yards and a touchdown, on a 64% snap share (56 of 87). His true workload (23 carries, 94 yards) is even bigger than the box score shows.
Love’s carry total more than doubled (9 → 21 official/23 true) and his rushing yardage tripled (29 → 90/94 true), while his receiving role held essentially flat in target count (3 → 5 true targets, adjusted share 10.3% → 9.3%) but delivered his first touchdown of the season.
This was almost entirely Love’s backfield — 21 of Arizona’s 23 rushing attempts. 26 total touches (28 true), his first touchdown of the season (a receiving score) — all on a 56-of-87 snap share (64%), the clear lead-back workload the touch count already suggests.
Third-and-short/power situations: Converted a 3rd-and-1 for 1 yard early (Q1) and a 3rd-and-4 for 8 yards (Q3).
Allgeier’s rushing work has shrunk over the past two straight weeks.
On the season, Love has a 43.9% success rate while Allgeier is at 29.2% and is averaging 3.9 yards per carry compared to Allgeier’s 2.9 (Next Gen Stats).
Michael Wilson (81 snaps/93%) and Trey McBride (79/91%) played almost identical snap shares, yet Wilson’s true adjusted target share (33.3%) has clearly pulled ahead of McBride’s (22.2%) this week.
Wilson caught 11 of a team-high 17 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. His true 18 targets and 33.3% adjusted share both lead the team. Also compiled 99 incomplete air yards (50% air yards share and 5 red-zone targets).
Trey McBride caught 9 of 11 targets for 75 yards (true 12 targets/85 yards once his own penalty-erased catch is counted).
Wilson now has just three fewer targets than McBride and leads Arizona with a 41.1% air yards share, which ranks in the top-12 league-wide (Next Gen Stats).
Still a massive raw-volume piece even without a touchdown this week — and he was the pass-catcher who did the real work getting Arizona to the SF1-yard line before Brissett scored himself on the next snap, a name worth tracking for positive touchdown regression.
Marvin Harrison Jr.- 5 targets and a season-high 40 yards this week. 3 catches. Woof.
Arizona out-gained the 49ers on time of possession and total plays (38:44 to 21:16; 81 offensive plays to 50), but San Francisco was far more efficient per snap (8.7 yards/play to Arizona’s 4.5), thanks to four explosive plays of 20+ yards.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at NYG (Road) | Wk5 vs DET (Home) | Wk6 at LAR (Road) | Wk7 vs DEN (Home).
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy for MVP?
Who says no?
We talked about it on this week’s Tailgate recap show.
Here are the Next Gen Stats that paint a picture of how great he has been:
His absurd 133.1 passer rating and 0.63 EPA per dropback lead the league. His nine TD passes tie for the league lead, and his 10 total touchdowns trail only Josh Allen’s 11. Only Allen has scored more fantasy points than Purdy among QBs, and since Week 15 of 2025, no QB has scored more points than Purdy’s 180.06. Purdy recorded his 14th career game with a 130+ passer rating, the most by any player before turning 27 in NFL history, surpassing Lamar Jackson. His 14 career games with a 130+ passer rating are tied for second-most in 49ers history with Hall of Famer Joe Montana, trailing only Hall of Famer Steve Young (22).
In Week 3, Brock Purdy went 15-of-27 for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns, 0 interceptions (133.8 rating), adding 2 carries for 34 yards. Also had a 45-yard scramble touchdown called back for holding.
Christian McCaffrey rushed 15 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, added 4 catches for 41 yards on 5 targets, on an 83% snap share (45 of 54).
A clean floor-and-ceiling weekly profile by role, backed by a snap share more than five times Kaelon Black’s, though his lone touchdown this week came entirely off Black’s carry to the Arizona 1-yard line rather than his own short-yardage work.
McCaffrey’s carry/yardage volume held almost exactly steady (10 car/23 yds Week 2 → 15 car/75 yds this week, a real per-carry efficiency jump from 2.3 to 5.0 YPC) with an identical touchdown total (1 in each game) and a similar receiving role (4 tar/4 rec both weeks).
First-half usage for CM: 5 carries for 22 yards, 3 tar/2 rec/18 yds. Second-half usage: 10 carries for 53 yards (plus his touchdown), 2 tar/2 rec/23 yds — his workload nearly doubled after halftime
Mike Evans caught 3 of 6 targets for 34 yards and a touchdown before leaving with a second-quarter injury and was later ruled out for the rest of the game. Listed as day-to-day with a rib/oblique injury.
George Kittle caught 6 of 7 targets for 82 yards and 2 touchdowns (26% target share). Both of his scores came in the second half, and his target count nearly doubled from Week 2 (4 → 7). He played 84% of the snaps and ran a route on 85% of the dropbacks. He’s back comfortably in the top-5 TE rankings.
Deebo Samuel’s 76% snap share (41 of 54) confirms he was a full participant despite finishing with zero official or true targets. His only involvement this week came via a lateral rather than a thrown target — still found the end zone on an 80-yard scamper to the end zone. Bizarre that he didn’t see a single target.
Jordan Watkins produced his 60-yard, 2-catch debut on just a 28% snap share. Watkins caught both of his targets for 60 yards (30.0 avg), including a 34-yard gain.
OT Trent Williams also got hurt with a stinger injury. LB Dre Greenlaw also got banged up.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs DEN (Home) | Wk5 at SEA (Road) | Wk6 vs WAS (Home, MNF) | Wk7 at ATL (Road).
Minnesota Vikings
Buy Jordan Mason & Sell Aaron Jones
Minnesota won a field-goal-heavy, punt-happy, mistake-prone game that was tighter than the final 7-point margin suggests — but instead of a shootout-style comeback, Minnesota led for almost the entire game and never trailed. Will Reichard’s 54-yard field goal made it 3-0 with 10:20 left in the first quarter, and Minnesota then blew the game open on the ensuing punt: Myles Price returned an 86-yard punt for a touchdown, making it 10-0 with 8:43 left in the first. Tampa Bay answered immediately — a 40-yard Baker Mayfield-to-Ted Hurst touchdown cut it to 10-7 — and a Chase McLaughlin field goal tied it 10-10 early in the second quarter. Minnesota answered right back: a 4-play, 73-yard drive capped by a 41-yard Kyler Murray-to-Jordan Addison touchdown made it 17-10 at halftime.
Tampa Bay clawed within one score twice in the second half but never took the lead. A Murray INT (intended for Jordan Addison) gave Tampa Bay a short field at the Minnesota 22, and Tampa Bay converted the turnover into a 38-yard McLaughlin field goal to make it 17-13 early in the third quarter. The single biggest play of the game came moments later and was erased from the record entirely: on 3rd-and-29 from their own 15, Mayfield hit Chris Godwin deep for what would have been an 85-yard, go-ahead-adjacent touchdown — nullified by Tampa Bay’s own offensive holding penalty.
Both offenses struggled badly to sustain drives: Minnesota converted just 2-of-15 on third down (13.3%) and Tampa Bay only 2-of-17 (11.8%); neither team scored an offensive touchdown via a sustained red-zone possession (Minnesota was 0-for-0 in the red zone — both its passing touchdowns came from outside the 20 — and Tampa Bay finished 0-for-2 in the red zone, 0-for-1 on goal-to-go, with its only real goal-line-caliber chance also the one erased by the Godwin penalty).
Neither team lost a fumble all game (zero fumbles, period, from either side) — a clean night on the ball-security front despite the sloppy, penalty-heavy overall play (Minnesota 9 penalties for 95 yards, Tampa Bay 8 for 81).
Kyler Murray went 15-of-29 for 168 yards, a touchdown, and an interception (66.5 rating), adding 2 carries for 17 yards.
His first start since clearing the concussion protocol was clean enough, if unspectacular. But he lost his WR1 early.
Justin Jefferson caught both of his 2 targets for 32 yards before leaving the game with an injury; he was ruled out for the second half. Only played 7 snaps. But the injury is not viewed as serious, and he could play in Week 4 versus the Dolphins.
No. 2 WR Jordan Addison caught 5 of a team-high 9 targets for 90 yards and the go-ahead touchdown (a 41-yard connection with Murray).
The clear target-share riser — adjusted share up from 23.8% to 31.3% — and he’s now firmly the WR1 by volume with Jefferson’s health in question for Week 4 (although trending as if he does play).
T.J. Hockenson caught 2 of 4 targets for 11 yards (true: 3 catches, 15 yards). Josh Oliver also suffered a biceps injury.
Aaron Jones’ carries fell slightly (23 → 17), and his per-carry average dipped (4.6 → 3.4 YPC), but his receiving role — a complete zero in Week 2 — came alive with a real 6-7 targets and 5 catches this week. Played 82% of the snaps. They trust Jones like no other RB on the roster. Or they’re banking on Jordan Mason returning in full force (making Mason a sharp buy-low candidate and Jones a sell-high).
17 official carries for 58 yards (0 TD), plus 6 targets/5 rec/34 yds. True line: 18 carries/59 yards once the holding-erased gain is added back; true 7 targets once the zero-value, holding-erased incompletion is counted.
First-half usage: 9 carries for 33 yards, just 1 target (0 catches) — a run-first first half.
Second-half usage: 8 carries for 25 yards, but 5 targets/5 receptions/34 yards — a perfect night on targets after halftime, with virtually all of his receiving production coming in the second half as Minnesota protected a lead and worked him as a checkdown/clock-control option.
DeeJay Dallas and Demond Claiborne — Ancillary work only: Dallas 1 carry/2 yards, Claiborne 3 carries/1 yard, combined zero targets. The two backup RBs played just 10 snaps combined.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs MIA (Home) | Wk5 at NO (Road) | Wk6 BYE | Wk 7 vs IND (Home) | Wk 8 vs DET (Road)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield was pressured heavily, taking 6 sacks (Minnesota’s defense recorded 6 total), and left the game with an injury on his final drop-back (a 4th-quarter interception). Completed 17 of 34 for 217 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception (before leaving the game with an injury); Jalon Daniels finished 0-of-3 with an interception in relief.
Mayfield will miss at least the next three games with a thumb injury.
Bucky Irving rushed 15 times for 46 yards, adding 2 catches (true 4) for 12 (true 32) yards on 4 (true 6) targets. Overall usage: 15 official carries for 46 yards (0 TD), plus 4 targets/2 rec/12 yds. True receiving line: 6 targets/4 rec/32 yds once two real penalty-erased catches are added back. First-half usage: 8 carries for 32 yards. Second-half usage: 7 carries for 14 yards
Gainwell — Clear passing-down back, all second-half work by carry (3 carries/-4 yards, all in the second half) plus 5 targets/2 rec/14 yds spread through the game — an inefficient rushing cameo, but a real receiving role.
Snaps were close to 50/50 between Bucky and Gainwell (32 and 31 snaps played, respectively).
Emeka Egbuka’s adjusted share nearly doubled (13.9% → 22.0%), a team-high 9 official targets — but no touchdown this week after scoring on lower volume last week. 5 catches for 62 yards. He’s been outside the top-30 WRs in weekly finishes so far this season.
Insert Jalon Daniels into an offense that ranks (with Mayfield, mind you) dead last in EPA/play, 7th-worst passing yards/game, 5th worst yards per play and 6th-worst in total yards/game
Ted Hurst caught 1 of 3 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown.
Cade Otton caught 3 of 6 targets for 56 yards (true: 4 catches, 93 yards).
Chris Godwin officially caught 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards, no touchdown — but his true line (5 targets, 110 yards) includes an 85-yard touchdown erased by his own team’s holding penalty.
Jalen McMillan was injured during Tampa Bay’s first offensive drive and ruled out of the game shortly after. A second straight week with almost no offensive role, now compounded by a fresh injury later confirmed as a re-aggravated PCL injury.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs GB (Home) | Wk5 at DAL (Road) | Wk6 vs PIT (Home) | Wk7 vs CAR (Home).
Baltimore Ravens
Buy Zay Flowers
A genuine shootout at a neutral site — the first NFL game ever played in Rio de Janeiro — that Baltimore won on the final play of regulation.
Lamar Jackson went 15-of-20 for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns, with no interceptions, and added 6 carries for 50 yards.
Derrick Henry carried 26 times for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns, and caught his only target for 0 yards.
His workload jumped sharply week over week (16 → 26 carries) on a 67% offensive snap share (43 of 64), and his touchdown count should very plausibly read 3, not 2 — a Q4 carry from the Dallas 2 was ruled a touchdown on the field before being reversed on replay to a stop at the 1-yard line, followed by a stuffed 4th-and-1.
WR Zay Flowers logged just 21 offensive snaps (33%) — tied with Justice Hill for Baltimore’s lowest offensive-skill-position share among regular contributors — yet posted a team-high 28.0% adjusted target share and 84 yards. Flowers caught 5 of 6 targets for a team-high 84 yards (no touchdown) and added a 20-yard end-around run. Still ran a route on 75% of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks.
imagine when zay flowers plays an entire game
— Andrew Erickson
Inactive all of Week 2 with a hamstring injury but immediately took back the clear WR1 role by volume and yardage.
Just imagine him playing an entire game for once in 2026. Fully healthy. Locked-and-loaded WR1.
Per Next Gen Stats, Flowers is averaging 9.0 yards per route this season, the highest mark of any player with at least 25 routes in the first three weeks of a season since 2016. He also leads the league with 19.5 yards per target, a 46.2% target rate, 0.7 EPA per route, 38.5% first-down rate and 23.1% explosive play rate.
Rashod Bateman caught 2 of 3 targets for 37 yards, no touchdown. The clear structural loser of Flowers’ return — his adjusted target share fell from a team-high 27.3% in Week 2 down to 12.0% this week.
Baltimore’s three tight ends were separated by only two snaps (Durham Smythe 34/53%, Mark Andrews 33/52%, Matthew Hibner 32/50%). Andrews did deal with a hand injury during the game that forced him to miss some time.
The Ravens veteran TE captured 3 of 5 targets for 24 yards, no touchdown. Down from a team-co-leading role in Week 2 (24.2% adjusted) to 20.0% this week as targets spread further across Flowers and the other tight ends.
Hibner corralled both of his targets for 23 yards and the eventual go-ahead touchdown. Hibner? No. HIMNER!
Baltimore did suffer more injuries on their interior offensive line… as they are now down to their fourth-string center. Gwyn and Pocic were both banged up late in the fourth quarter (Gwyn ruled questionable, Pocic questionable after returning briefly) — offensive line depth concerns to monitor into Week 4. Both will likely be placed on IR.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs TEN (Home) | Wk5 at ATL (Road) | Wk6 at CLV (Road) | Wk7 vs CIN (Home)
Dallas Cowboys
Buy George Pickens & Sell Jake Ferguson
Dak Prescott went 25-of-40 for 276 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions, and was sacked once for -9 yards.
George Pickens caught 7 of 11 targets for 82 yards, no touchdown (although still commanded 2 more end-zone targets).
A true line of 12 targets/8 catches/102 yards (once the holding-erased catch counts) is his best of the season and continues a three-week rising trend (17.9% → 25.0% → 28.6% adjusted share) — still the clearest touchdown-regression buy on this roster. Pickens is due for an eruption.
CeeDee Lamb hauled in 7 of 8 targets for a team-high 112 yards, no touchdown.
Ryan Florunoy ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks with 87 incomplete air yards and 4 red-zone targets. Just two catches for 22 yards on 8 targets.
Jake Ferguson didn’t start for Dallas but played 51 of 74 snaps (69%) — nearly double the combined snap total of the two tight ends who did start (Spann-Ford 28, Schoonmaker 16). Ferguson caught 3 of 5 targets for 23 yards and a touchdown. Also lost a fumble.
Javonte Williams carried 19 times for 98 yards and a touchdown, and caught 2 of 3 targets for -5 yards.
His best game of the season by carries and rushing yardage (12 → 19, 30/55-true → 98) came on a season-high 76% offensive snap share (56 of 74), and his touchdown was his first clean (non-penalty-erased) score. The one blemish: a first-quarter carry that reached the Baltimore 1-yard line before the ensuing snaps failed and Dallas settled for a field goal — a real chance at a second score left on the table.
Tyler Goodson’s tertiary work behind Williams (56 snaps, 76%) checked in at only 11 snaps (15%). Goodson stepped directly into the RB2 role vacated by the inactive Emari Demercado. Overall usage: 6 carries for 22 yards, 1 catch on 1 target for -5 yards.
Kavontae Turpin — A single situational/gadget carry, but it was a touchdown: a 9-yard end-around/jet-sweep-style score late in the fourth quarter that answered Baltimore’s turnover on downs at the goal line, on just 12 of 74 offensive snaps (16%).
On defense: Shavon Revel and Jalen Thompson left and did not return.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at HOU (Road) | Wk5 vs TB (Home) | Wk6 at GB (Road) | Wk7 at PHI (Road, MNF).
Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Ashton Jeanty
Kirk Cousins went 22-of-33 for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns, with 0 interceptions, adding 3 carries for 3 yards. Cousins has 9 passing TDs this season.
Brock Bowers’ 13-target, 116-yard, touchdown workload came on just 55 snaps (79%) — actually fewer than Michael Mayer’s 61 (87%), who saw only 3 targets. The Raiders’ TE1 caught 10 of 13 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Jeanty’s every-down role is confirmed at the snap level (59/70, 84%), while Mike Washington’s complementary role (11 snaps, 16%) still produced 54 yards and a touchdown on a single explosive carry. Carried 5 times for 54 yards and a touchdown on just 11 of 70 snaps (16%).
His 36-yard score — initially ruled down at the New Orleans 1-yard line before being overturned into a touchdown on a Las Vegas replay challenge — was the single most explosive play of the game.
Jeanty rushed 19 times (true 20) for 56 (true 65) yards, and caught 3 of his 3 targets for 37 yards, on an every-down 59 of 70 snaps (84%).
Jeanty’s carry count fell slightly (21 official → 19 official/20 true), but his rushing efficiency improved* (2.3 → 2.8 official YPC, true yards up from 56 to 65) and his receiving role grew more efficient (4 catches/15 yds → 3 catches/37 yds, a much higher per-catch average) even as his raw true target share fell (23.3% → 11.8% adjusted).
True line: 20 carries/65 yards once Tucker’s holding-erased 9-yard gain is added back; true 4 targets once the zero-value DPI addition is counted (Jeanty was targeted downfield).
The team has been trying to get Jeanty going, but currently he ranks bottom-8 in rushing success rate and EPA/rush. He has 7 GL carries in the last two games without a rushing TD. His 63 total carries are by far the most among RBs with a rushing TD score yet in 2026. Positive TD regression is coming. He’s averaging 26 opportunities/game.
Tre Tucker played just 40 of 70 Las Vegas snaps (57%), tied exactly with Nailor — a real gap below Bowers (79%) and Mayer (87%) that reinforces Tucker’s diminished role behind Bowers this week. Adjusted target share fell from 26.7% to 11.8%, and his true target count was cut in half (8 → 4).
Cody White caught 1 of 3 targets for 4 yards and a touchdown (2-point conversion failed).
His third touchdown in two weeks on minimal volume.
Jack Bech left the game early in the third quarter and did not return. Going to be placed on IR.
OG Jackson Powers-Johnson was marked questionable late in the fourth quarter. Suffered a groin injury that is not considered to be overly serious.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs KC (Home) | Wk5 at NE (Road) | Wk6 vs BUF (Home) | Wk7 vs LAR (Home)
New Orleans Saints
Add Alvin Kamara & Kendre Miller
New Orleans led 27-22 after three quarters and lost in the fourth on turnovers, not execution — Tyler Shough fumbled twice on sacks, and New Orleans lost 3 of its 4 fumbles overall, directly setting up 2 of Las Vegas’ 3 fourth-quarter scores.
Shough went 29-of-42 for 255 yards and 4 touchdowns, with 1 interception, adding 1 carry for 36 yards. His highest touchdown total of the season, but also his first interception and two lost fumbles (both on sacks).
Chris Olave caught 9 of a team-high 13 targets for 107 yards, no touchdown.
Continues as the unambiguous volume leader (29.5% adjusted target share, up from 27.8%) — and this week he was the one stopped at the Las Vegas 1-yard line,
Alvin Kamara carried 9 times for 36 yards and caught his only target for 5 yards, on 24 of 74 snaps (32%).
Travis Etienne’s rushing efficiency jumped (3.1 → 4.4 YPC), and his volume held (8 car → 13 car before exiting) — a real step forward cut short by injury. 15 total touches through three quarters. However, he will miss games with the hamstring injury.
Etienne’s snaps (28/74, 38%) reflect his early exit, with Kamara (24, 32%) and Miller (14, 19%) splitting the backfield the rest of the way — Kamara’s 8-carry, 39-yard second half came on a modest snap allotment relative to Etienne’s overall workload (almost all of Kamara’s work came after the ETN injury).
Kamara’s rushing role reversed hard: his receiving role collapsed (6 targets → 1) while his rushing efficiency spiked (1.7 → 4.0 YPC) on similar carry volume (9 carries both weeks).
CJ Donaldson had a single, high-value early-game carry: stopped at the Las Vegas 1-yard line on New Orleans’ opening touchdown drive — his only touch of the game, on 12 of 74 offensive snaps (16%).
Miller had just 4 carries for 14 yards, 3 targets/2 rec, and 1 fumble (no possession change; ball out of bounds) on 14 of 74 offensive snaps (19%).
This backfield has already been a full-blown committee before Etienne’s injury, so I’d expect more of the same over the next few weeks. Week 3 was the first time that Miller and Kamara played together, and Kamara out-touched Miller 10-6 (the latter of which was used more in the receiving game). I’d expect Kamara to be used more as a receiver in future weeks, with Miller seizing a larger rushing opportunity (similar to how they were deployed last season).
In Weeks 4-6 2025, during Miller’s last 3 healthy games, he carried the ball 29 times for 127 rushing yards versus Kamara’s 33 carries for 128 rushing yards (4-plus catches in all three games).
Noah Fant’s 2-touchdown, 4-target breakout came on only 42 snaps (57%), fewer than Juwan Johnson’s 46 (62%) — Fant produced well above his snap share, while Johnson’s heavier workload (10 true targets) tracks his higher snap count. Fant caught 4 of 4 targets for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Johnson caught 8 of 8 targets for 53 yards and 2 touchdowns (his true line: 9-of-10, 62 yards, once the penalty-erased catch and the erased interception are counted). Twice the beneficiary of a teammate being stopped just short of the end zone two plays earlier.
He also lost a fourth-quarter fumble that helped seal the loss.
DeVaughn Vele: Down in both raw targets (7 → 6) and efficiency (5-of-7 → 3-of-6). Just three catches for 39 yards.
3 more Saints defenders also got hurt in this game – Curtis Granderson, Anfernee Jennings, and Pete Warner.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs ATL (Home) | Wk5 vs MIN (Home) | Wk6 at NYG (Road) | Wk7 vs PIT (Home)
Los Angeles Rams
Add Tyler Higbee & Buy Blake Corum
Matthew Stafford went 30-of-55 for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 2 interceptions (one a live 66-yard pick-six, one a game-ending Hail Mary), adding 2 carries for 13 yards.
Davante Adams’ 83% snap share is the highest among LA’s healthy wide receivers by a wide margin. Adams caught 7 of a team-high 13 targets for 137 yards, no touchdowns. Remains the clear #1 target earner (true 14 targets, 25.0% adjusted share) without Puka Nacua in the lineup.
Tyler Higbee’s 71% snap share cleared every starting LA tight end (Parkinson 43%, Allen 36%, Ferguson 26%). Higbee Caught 8 of 11 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown. Had zero targets in Week 2. After Ferguson hurt his ankle (also likely out in Week 4), Higbee stepped up big time for the Rams offense. Parkinson was also questionable entering the game, so the Rams may have had no choice but to rely on Higbee. Parkinson is day-to-day due to an AC joint sprain.
Head coach Sean McVay said Monday that the Rams are “hopeful” Puka Nacua will return to action for Sunday’s game. Stay tuned. If you are sitting at 0-3…might be worth it to make a play for Nacua in the chance he returns to his former self in Week 4.
Kyren Williams carried 15 times for 88 yards and caught 6 of 7 targets for 70 yards — 21 total touches, no touchdown. Reclaimed the clear lead-back role from Week 2’s even split with Corum — snap share rose from 55% to 71%, and his carry count nearly doubled Corum’s.
Corum started alongside Williams, but in a clearly reduced role compared to Week 2’s dead-even split. Overall usage: 6 carries for 15 yards (2.5 YPC), plus 4 targets/2 rec/0 yds — 10 touches, 15 total yards. First-half usage: All 4 of his targets came in the first half; his carries were split across the game. It was Corum’s first dud of the season, so I like him as a sneaky buy-low bench target. Contingent upside is immense if anything were to happen to Kyren, and the third-year RB showcased stand-alone value during the first 2 weeks of the season.
Konata Mumpfield caught 4 of 8 targets for 93 yards and a touchdown, including the go-ahead 48-yard score in the fourth quarter. Target share more than doubled week over week (6.5% → 14.3% adjusted) — a real riser who delivered the single biggest offensive play of the game for Los Angeles.
Jaylen Watson (LAR, CB) was hurt on a Q2 play and ruled out of the game by the third quarter. Dislocated shoulder that will force him to miss Week 4.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at PHI (Road) | Wk5 vs BUF (Home) | Wk6 vs ARZ (Home) | Wk7 at LV (Road).
Denver Broncos
Sell J.K. Dobbins
Denver’s offense was a complete no-show for 30 minutes, then scored touchdowns on 4 of its final 5 possessions — a 16-point third-quarter swing plus the game-winning fourth-quarter drive erased a 16-0 halftime deficit entirely. LA committed 13 penalties for 91 yards (several of them self-inflicted, erasing real gains of its own) against Denver’s 5 for 38.
LA out-gained Denver 273-67 in total net yards over the first two quarters. Denver’s offense was almost entirely shut down for 30 minutes — Bo Nix was 6-of-12 for 53 yards with zero touchdowns in the first half.
Nix went 17-of-34 for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns, with 1 interception (73.9 rating), adding 4 carries for 7 yards and a rushing touchdown. Engineered a complete second-half comeback, capped by the game-winning 1-yard score.
Courtland Sutton’s 87% snap share is the highest of any Denver skill player, matching his co-tied target lead this week. Caught 3 of a team-high-tying 7 targets for 46 yards (3 red-zone targets, two in the end zone). A real riser in target share (12.5% → 20.0% adjusted), now tied for Denver’s team lead in targets alongside RJ Harvey and Jaylen Waddle.
Pat Bryant caught 2 of 2 official targets for 44 yards and a touchdown (true 3 targets once a DPI-erased interception is added back). A real bounce-back after an empty, single-target Week 2.
Jaylen Waddle took a real step back after his Week 2 breakout — target share fell (31.3% → 20.0% adjusted), and efficiency cratered (8-of-10 for 138 yards → 2-of-7 for just 10 yards).
J.K. Dobbins carried 17 times for 49 yards, no touchdown, with zero targets. (0 TD, 2.9 YPC), 0 targets — 17 touches, 49 total yards on a 52% snap share. Put the ball on the ground in the third quarter, but Denver recovered.
He played the whole game without an injury exit for the first time this season, and his workload grew in the second half (13 of his 17 carries) — but the complete absence of a passing-game role continues into a third straight week. Through three games, Dobbins ranks third-worst in rushing success rate among qualified rushers.
R.J. Harvey caught 6 of a team-high-tying 7 targets for 41 yards, plus 2 carries for 6 yards. 20.0% adjusted share, tied for the team lead, exceeding even his Week 1 mark (13.8%). 33% snaps played. Restored directly to his Week 1-level passing-down role after missing Week 2 with a hamstring injury — a real target-share riser worth trusting again now that he’s healthy, even after a brief in-game injury exit.
Even with the injury to Jonah Coleman…we know that Dobbins isn’t built to last. Sell high. His empty calorie touches aren’t moving the fantasy needle.
Next four matchups: Wk4 at SF (Road) | Wk5 at LAC (Road) | Wk6 vs SEA (Home, TNF) | Wk7 at ARZ (Road).
Chicago Bears
Buy Luther Burden & Colston Loveland
The Bears scored on their opening possession and never trailed again. The headline storyline before a snap was even played: Chicago started third-string QB Case Keenum, not Tyson Bagent.
Chicago opened with an 11-play, 66-yard, 6:13 drive that ended with an 8-yard Keenum-to-Luther Burden touchdown (0-7, 8:47 Q1). Philadelphia’s first two possessions went nowhere — a three-and-out (extended briefly by a Jalen Hurts intentional-grounding penalty) and a drive that died on a Tank Bigsby fumble at the PHI15, recovered by Chicago.
Chicago immediately cashed that turnover into a would-be touchdown — a Keenum-to-Colston Loveland catch (not so fast, fantasy managers) at the goal line was initially ruled a touchdown, then reviewed and reversed to a stop at the Philadelphia 1-yard line — but the Bears then failed to convert from 1st-and-goal at the 1 (a loss, two incompletions), turning the ball over on downs at the PHI3.
Philadelphia responded by driving the other way to a 1st-and-goal at the Chicago 1 of its own (capped by a 14-yard Saqoun Barkley run to the CHI1), but that drive also died — Barkley was stuffed for -1 and 0 yards on the next two snaps, and Andy Dalton (in for an injured Jalen Hurts who was still in the blue medical tent) threw a red-zone interception at the CHI2.
Chicago then added a 29-yard field goal to close the half 0-10, before Philadelphia’s only touchdown of the game — an 8-play, 67-yard drive capped by a 1-yard Jalen Hurts sneak — cut it to 7-10 at halftime.
The Bears pulled away in the second half: a 48-yard field goal (7-13, Q3) and a 41-yard Keenum-to-Kalif Raymond touchdown, Chicago’s longest play of the game.
Chicago led every meaningful possession category: 30:40 to 23:07 in time of possession, an 8-0 edge in drives with the lead, and a largest lead of 20 points. The game had just one total lead change all game (the Bears’ opening score), and Philadelphia was never tied or ahead at any point. Chicago out-gained Philadelphia 375-248 in total net yards and held a lopsided 24-14 first-down edge; the Bears also finished 5-13 on third down (38.5%) to Philadelphia’s 2-9 (22.2%), and 2-3 on fourth down to Philadelphia’s 0-2. Philadelphia was penalized heavily — 10 for 61 yards, nearly double Chicago’s 5 for 45 — and turned the ball over three times (Bigsby’s lost fumble, plus interceptions by both Dalton and Hurts), while Chicago went clean and turnover-free.
Case Keenum completed 24-of-34 for 247 yards and 2 touchdowns with 0 interceptions (110.8 rating), adding 4 carries for 6 yards and a rushing touchdown.
De’Andre Swift started and was the clear early-down volume leader, with his role tilting more toward pure rushing and less toward the passing game than in Week 2. His 69% snap share (50 of 72 offensive snaps) is more than double Kyle Monangai’s 31% (22 of 72), confirming Swift as the clear lead back.
Overall usage for Swift: 20 official carries for 84 yards (0 TD), plus 3 targets, 2 receptions, and 4 yards. Swift also kept the passing-down role (3 targets to Monangai’s 0), though his overall receiving usage shrank sharply from Week 2.
First-half usage: 9 carries for 21 yards (per the official first-half box score). Second-half usage: 11 carries for 63 yards (5.7 YPC) — nearly doubled his rushing workload after halftime as Chicago protected and extended a growing lead, including a game-sealing, clock-killing drive with a 15-yard carry on 4th-and-1.
Carried twice inside the 5 (4 and 4 yards) to set up Keenum’s own 1-yard sneak on Chicago’s final touchdown drive.
Monangai was most productive after halftime. Overall usage: 10 official carries for 31 yards (0 TD), 0 targets (down from 2 in Week 2) — a pure early-down/power role this week with no receiving involvement at all. Snap share: 31% (22 of 72), less than half of Swift’s 69%.
First-half usage: 3 carries for -1 yard. Second-half usage: 7 carries for 32 yards (4.6 YPC) — a far more productive half, including 6 carries on Chicago’s 13-play touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Luther Burden: The biggest week-over-week winner. Target share grew sharply (18.9% → 30.6% adjusted, 7 tar → 11), and he caught Chicago’s opening touchdown — continuing his Week 2 trajectory as the team’s clear target-share leader, now with a score to show for it. Caught 7 of a team-high 11 targets for 61 yards and Chicago’s opening touchdown (one of 4 RZ targets).
Per Next Gen Stats, Burden set a career-high with 11 targets on Monday night — seven in the first half, the most first-half targets for a Bear since 2024 — catching seven for 61 yards and a touchdown. Burden continues to be increasingly involved, with five of his six highest route totals coming in his last five games dating back to last year. His 11 targets and seven catches led the team in Week 3, and he currently leads the Bears with a 25.3% target share.
Kalif Raymond: Also stayed heavily involved with a bump in target share (13.5% → 22.2% adjusted) and delivered his first touchdown of the season, a 41-yard connection that was the longest play of the game for either team. Caught 6 of 7 (true: 8) targets for 90 yards. After it seemed like a fluke in Weeks 1+2, it very much appears Raymond’s involvement in the offense is here to stay.
Rome Odunze: Roughly flat in target share (13.5% → 16.7% adjusted) with an identical receiving-yardage output (43 → 44 yds), but he had a bad drop in the end zone. Caught 3 of 6 targets for 44 yards.
Colston Loveland: saw a moderate bump in raw targets (3 official/4 true → 4), but his week was really defined by the reversed touchdown at the goal line. As if it couldn’t get worse for Loveland fantasy football managers. 4 of 4 targets for 31 yards. Also fell to 4th on the team in total routes run. He played 80% of the snaps, but he has seen his routes drop in three consecutive contests. Woof.
However, as bad as that sounds…he is coming off his best game to date. And if he scores… nobody cares. If the production continues to trend upward…you’ll look back at acquiring Loveland for pennies on the dollar with a huge grin.
CB Cam Lewis exited Monday night’s game against the Eagles with a leg injury.
OT Braxton Jones hurt his knee and did not return to Monday night’s contest against the Eagles.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs NYJ (Home) | Wk5 at GB (Road) | Wk6 at ATL (Road) | Wk7 vs NE (Home, TNF)
Philadelphia Eagles
Sell Saquon Barkley
Jalen Hurts went 16-of-25 for 153 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception (64.2 rating), adding 4 carries for 25 yards and a rushing touchdown. He was checked for injury on a Q2 scramble and missed a series.
Barkley delivered a clear, heavily front-loaded workhorse performance. His 72% snap share (36 of 50 offensive snaps) dwarfs both Bigsby’s 4% (2 snaps) and Will Shipley’s 26% (13 snaps) — confirming Barkley was the backfield by an enormous margin, even after he got hurt in Week 2. Bigsby and Shipley combined for zero carries and two touches (Bigsby’s fumble, Shipley reception).
Overall usage: 15 official carries for 82 yards (0 TD), plus 2 targets/1 reception/-2 yards. True line: 16 carries for 101 yards once a 19-yard, penalty-erased carry is added back — his true workload actually topped 100 rushing yards. Barkley recorded 15 carries for 82 yards against the Bears, including three explosive runs after totaling just one in the first two weeks of the season.
First-half usage: 11 of his 15 carries (73 of his 82 yards — 89% of both) came before halftime, including the marquee 14-yard carry to the CHI1. But he was then stuffed for -1 and 0 yards on the next two snaps before Andy Dalton’s interception ended the drive. No touchdown to show for a real chance at one. Second-half usage: just 4 carries for 9 yards — his workload nearly disappeared after the break, a function of Philadelphia falling into a 20-point hole and being forced into a pass-heavy, clock-disadvantaged script (Philadelphia held the ball for only 23:07 all game).
The Eagles offense looks like a mess. 27th in first downs through three games. OL is not playing up to its usual standards. 16th in yards BEFORE contact – the worst rank by the Eagles’ front five in the last five years. 24th in stuff rate and 29th in explosive run rate.
Barkley is a workhorse, no doubt, and is doing everything he can to create yardage on his own. But in a meh offense, without much of a receiving role (averaging 2 targets per game), I am very much tempted to kick the tires on his trade value as a buy/sell. Good matchups are coming up, but Barkley was supposed to have GREAT matchups to start the season. Zero top-24 finishes through three games. Leaning more toward the sell side on a downgraded offense for an older RB.
DeVonta Smith’s target share held roughly steady (35.1% → 33.3% adjusted) even as the whole Eagles passing game shrank (37 attempts → 26), though his raw volume and production both fell (13 tar/117 yds/1 TD → 8 tar/65 yds/0 TD). Caught 6 of 8 targets for 65 yards, no touchdowns (100% snap share).
He was also the intended receiver on Hurts’ interception this week, continuing the exact same pattern flagged in Week 2 (both of Hurts’ Week 2 INTs were intended for Smith too).
Dontayvion Wicks’ target share rose slightly (16.2% → 18.5% adjusted), but his catch rate collapsed (5-of-6 → 2-of-5) — worth watching, though the near-miss reversed 18-yard catch to the CHI9 suggests the underlying opportunity was still real. Ran one fewer route than Lemon.
Makai Lemon was a real riser — from a single target in Week 2 up to 4 this week (2.7% → 14.8% adjusted), his most involved game of the season so far. Still just three catches for 29 yards. Ran a route on a season-high 93% of dropbacks.
Johnny Mundt went down from 3 targets in Week 2 to 1 this week, consistent with a more spread-out target distribution overall. Zach Ertz also made his season debut with the Eagles – one catch for 9 yards (2 targets). Ran one more route than Mundt while playing 38% of the snaps in his first game back.
Next four matchups: Wk4 vs LAR (Home) | Wk5 at JAX (Neutral – London) | Wk6 vs CAR (Home) | Wk7 vs DAL (Home)
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