London games, bye weeks and injuries have varied effects on the NFL DFS main slates.
This weekly article is not meant to be a roster builder, but a sifter of value for pieces of lineups. This week we have a 10-game slate to decipher, so let’s get into it.
NFL DFS Values & Picks: Week 6
Quarterbacks
What a time to be alive. Boring, surgically repaired, khaki-wearing Kirk Cousins is the QB11 in fantasy points per game. A feat he accomplished despite having the mobility of a belabored tugboat. He is tied for second-most touchdowns (12) and ranks eighth overall in passing yards (1,269). After witnessing his career to date, the most impressive and startling thing is that he has only four interceptions this season. Needless to say, Cousins is playing like Alex Smith did when rookie Patrick Mahomes was sitting behind him. Potential foreshadowing of things to come, perhaps.
The Bills allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. On average, they surrender 295.8 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. Among the quarterbacks they have faced were C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert. Drake Maye used this Bills defense to turn his season around after three weeks of disappointment and a plethora of turnovers.
This game features a 53.5 over/under and should have multiple players sprinkled throughout DFS lineups. With a 20% implied rostership in DraftKings main slate contests, Cousins has the volatility to make him more valuable in cash contests and can also be used in aggressive GPP contests. This game is projected to be a back-and-forth affair that could see a few more pass attempts than usual if the Raiders are trying to keep up with Josh Allen and company.
It is one thing to have to start Jameis Winston in a season-long league. The waiver wire is dry or features options like Tanner McKee, bye weeks are in effect and injuries have piled up. Sure, you can start Winston in those situations out of sheer necessity. Purposefully selecting him for a DFS lineup for a Sunday main slate? Well, that, my friends, is a whole different mixed bag of feelings. Do not believe a humble DFS fantasy analyst takes this suggestion lightly. Instead, let’s examine what led us here.
In his first two games (one start, one relief), Winston put Giants fans in a panic. In those games, he averaged a debilitating 4.8 fantasy points per game. Over his last two, he is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per outing. In that span, he has thrown six touchdowns and only two interceptions, averaging 288 passing yards. Might be safe to assume he has knocked the rust off and is playing like the gun slinger we all remember.
This week, the Giants travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, who in their own right can be a competitive team, especially on their home turf. The Saints allow the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so it’s more of a neutral opponent than Winston has faced in the last two contests. Still, volume is implied, as this game has a 46.0 over/under and the Saints are barely favored.
Winston does not always provide the cleanest path to fantasy points, but when he is on, he gets there. It is also worth noting that he has targeted Malik Nabers 27 times over two weeks. Might be worth a stacking option along with another player we may talk about a little later.
Winston is more of a volatile GPP play on this slate and would be preferred by users playing multiple lineups.
Running Backs
Normally, I try to avoid listing top-tier players as values. Unless there is reason to believe that player is a slate-breaker. Jonathan Taylor represents that this week. Now, it is doubtful that anyone truly needs a list of statistically backed reasons to plug a top-shelf running back into a lineup, so this will be brief yet offer some insight.
When looking over player props, Taylor’s caught my eye. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Taylor’s anytime touchdown scorer odds are set at -295 — a 74% chance that Taylor will score at least one touchdown. His two-touchdown prop is set to +180, still implying roughly a 35% chance of two scores. Curiosity set in.
Here are Taylor’s last three outings against the Titans, going back to 2024:
- 29 rushes for 218 yards and three touchdowns
- 17 rushes for 102 yards and three touchdowns
- 12 rushes for 153 yards and two touchdowns
The aerial portion of the Colts’ offense has left a bit to be desired. Taylor should have the volume and could see another multi-touchdown outing against a team he has fared well against over the last several seasons.
Daily fantasy players will be keyed into this one, so expect a high rostership percentage. If Taylor has the kind of game Vegas is setting odds to, he almost has to be rostered in cash contests. Again, this is not the kind of value typically covered here, but when Vegas is betting heavily that a player is nearly a lock for at least one score, the DFS community should pay attention as well.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the RB20 in half-PPR fantasy points per game and ranks 11th in receiving yards among running backs this season. When not being punished for fumbles, Stevenson is averaging 56.7 rushing yards and 27.7 receiving yards per game.
Originally, this was anticipated to be a volume play as the general indication was that backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson was dealing with the dreaded high-ankle sprain. With no interlude whatsoever, Henderson returned to practice, albeit in a limited fashion. At the time of this writing, Henderson is listed as questionable and seemingly has a shot to play in this matchup. If there was a confused font, this would be written in it.
For the sake of value searching, let us at least assume that Henderson and his invisible sprained ankle are both less than 100% and will therefore not have the normal anticipated backfield volume. That puts Stevenson in the driver’s seat for the majority share of the workload. The Jets are a friendly matchup, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to running backs. Over five weeks, they allow 102.2 rushing yards, 28.4 receiving yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game.
Stevenson comes in at a good salary price-to-opportunity ratio on FanDuel. With a larger-than-normal expected workload, Drake Maye’s return to fantasy-productive football bodes well for Stevenson to hit the value marker in both cash and GPP contests.
Wide Receivers
Jalen Coker started the season on fire, turning nine targets into eight receptions for 138 yards and two scores. He finished as the WR1 for the week. He followed that up by seeing nine more targets in Week 2, for 66 scoreless yards. The volume remained. After a shortened Week 3, a missed Week 4 and a Week 5 bye, Coker is nearly an afterthought in some markets. That fares well for both salary and rostership percentage for the current main slate. With accrued production (counted as three games instead of the more realistic 2.5), Coker ranks WR31 in fantasy points per game.
The Eagles’ defense is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They are giving up 172.2 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game. Their offense is also in shambles, from the offensive line to the running back. Most recently, their franchise quarterback is unavailable for an undetermined period.
Tetairoa McMillan will draw the prime coverage, giving Coker more room to operate against weaker corners. Coker is a baseline high-end WR2 with a backend WR1 possibility for this week. In full PPR scoring formats, he is a value play for both cash and GPP contests.
Luther Burden III, he of the offseason hype train, enters Week 6 as the WR26 in fantasy points per game. In all fairness to the emerging receiver, he has played with three quarterbacks in five games. Burden did have one WR15 finish in half-PPR scoring formats, occurring in the week he recorded his only touchdown of the season thus far. Regardless of quarterback, Burden has cleared 60+ receiving yards in three out of five contests. Burden averages seven targets per game and is also seemingly quarterback-agnostic.
The Falcons allow the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. On average, they are surrendering 181.1 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the position. The Falcons primarily run single-high safety coverage, in which Burden sees an increased target share.
Caleb Williams is expected to make his return from the hamstring injury that has kept him sidelined for the last few weeks. Burden should benefit from the return of his primary quarterback and in a matchup that will certainly facilitate scoring on both sides of the ball.
This game features a 52.5 over/under as both offenses can generate points. Treat Burden as a GPP contest FLEX play with upside for this slate.
Tight Ends
John Harbaugh did not pursue Isaiah Likely without familiarity or purpose. He knew what he saw in Likely and what he could be on the field in a full-time role. Through six weeks, that has resulted in Likely ranking third at the position in fantasy points per game, fourth in receiving yards and tied for first in touchdowns. Despite all of that, he is the TE6 in salary on this slate. Value has already been built into the price.
The Saints allow the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends. They have allowed 45+ receiving yards to four tight ends in five weeks of play. Over that span, they have also allowed two touchdowns to the position.
We have already discussed the implied point total and have established Jameis Winston as a potential value for this slate. The matchup is there. Likely has been playing good football, and his quarterback is also undervalued for this slate. Fire up Likely in both GPP and cash contests this week.
Tyler Higbee has quietly finished as the TE7, TE15 and TE10 over the last three weeks, respectively. He has managed this feat almost purely on volume, having scored only once in that span. Over those three games, Higbee is averaging 7.6 targets and 70.6 receiving yards per game.
The Cardinals remain mostly tight end agnostic, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. On average, they allow 72.6 yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the position.
This game features a 51.5 over/under. Matthew Stafford dials up the pass attempts. Higbee sneaks into TE1 territory again, with plenty of upside versus his salary. He is an ideal GPP candidate with sub-5% expected rostership.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
from FantasyPros https://ift.tt/a702jlT
– 
