Friday’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel features 10 games, starting at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Underdog player props are also from those 11 games.
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Lineup Assistant
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Friday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (9/25)
Tarik Skubal (SP – LAD) at San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers don’t have incentive to overtax Tarik Skubal tonight. They could yank him early to preserve his arm for the playoffs. At the same time, there’s plenty of time between this start and the National League Division Series beginning on Saturday, October 3. So, I’m not too worried about the risk of Skubal leaving early.
With that out of the way, the lefty ace has pitched well for the Dodgers. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts spanning 55 innings for Los Angeles, Skubal has tallied the following numbers:
- 4 wins
- 6 quality starts
- 2.95 ERA
- 3.16 xERA
- 3.19 xFIP
- 3.32 SIERA
- 1.13 WHIP
- 5.8 BB%
- 26.9 K%
- 13.6 SwStr%
- 27.9 CSW%
- 117 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 121 pitching+
Skubal hasn’t pitched at his Cy Young Award-winning level with the Dodgers. Still, he’s pitched quite well.
He also has a favorable matchup and jaw-dropping betting info. The Giants are 28th in wRC+ (86) with a 23.3 K% versus lefties and 24th in wRC+ (99) with a 21.2 K% at home in 2026. San Francisco is also tied for 13th in wRC+ (100) with a 24.2 K% in the previous 30 days and 22nd in wRC+ (84) with a 27.7 K% in the last 14 days. As a result, the Dodgers are -400 favorites, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.
Jose Soriano (SP – TOR) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Jose Soriano is a positive regression candidate. In his previous five starts, totaling 30 innings, Soriano has amassed the following stats:
- 2 wins
- 2 quality starts
- 5.10 ERA
- 3.81 xERA
- 3.60 xFIP
- 3.71 SIERA
- 1.13 WHIP
- 6.3 BB%
- 19.0 K%
- 9.1 SwStr%
- 27.9 CSW%
- 97 stuff+
- 115 location+
- 112 pitching+
The gap between Soriano’s ERA and his ERA estimators is an indicator that he’s been unlucky.
Thankfully, Soriano has a get-right matchup and favorable betting info tonight. The Reds are 30th in wRC+ (88) with a 25.6 K% versus righties and tied for 23rd in wRC+ (91) with a 24.6 K% on the road this year. Cincinnati is also 20th in wRC+ (94) with a 26.0 K% in the previous 30 days and 30th in wRC+ (66) with a 26.4 K% in the last 14 days. So, the Blue Jays are -136 favorites, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.
Robert Gasser (SP – MIL) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Robert Gasser has run pure lately. In his last four starts and one relief appearance spanning 26.1 innings, the lefty has spun a blistering 1.71 ERA. The ERA doesn’t align with his 4.82 xERA, 4.74 xFIP, or 4.60 SIERA. Still, he has an adequate 20.2 K% and 1.10 WHIP in those starts, and his matchup and betting info suggest he could have another DFS-friendly start, namely as a bargain SP2 at DraftKings.
The Cardinals are tied for 11th in wRC+ (99) with a 19.4 K% versus lefties and tied for seventh in wRC+ (101) with a 21.8 K% on the road this season. However, the Red Birds are 26th in wRC+ (89) with a 22.8 K% in the previous 30 days and 29th in wRC+ (71) with a 25.1 K% in the last 14 days. Thus, the Brewers are -180 favorites, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
- Home (Kauffman Stadium)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/KCR +115
Gavin Williams, while unlucky, has not done well on the road this year. In 13 road starts spanning 73.1 innings this year, Williams has a 4.79 ERA, 3.01 xFIP, and 1.15 WHIP, but allowed 1.84 HR/9. He allowed five runs in six innings in Kansas City on May 5. The betting info should deter many gamers from stacking the Royals, enhancing their appeal in GPPs.
- Road (Sutter Health Park)
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted/HOU -150
The Astros will get the bump from hitting at Sutter Health Park tonight. They’ll also get one from facing Jacob Lopez. The lefty has an 8.49 ERA, 4.98 xERA, 5.62 xFIP, 5.22 SIERA, 1.76 WHIP, and allowed 2.70 HR/9 in his last five starts. The A’s also have a dreadful bullpen, ranking dead last in ERA.
Core Studs
- Jose Altuve has hit 15 homers with a .382 OBP, .175 ISO, .377 wOBA and 148 wRC+ in 427 plate appearances against southpaws since 2024.
- Isaac Paredes has launched 13 long-balls with a .357 OBP, .179 ISO, .353 wOBA and 131 wRC+ in 384 plate appearances against lefties since 2024.
- Vinnie Pasquantino didn’t reach base in four plate appearances last night. Still, in 128 plate appearances from August 17 through September 23, Pasquantino ripped nine round-trippers with 18 runs, 27 RBIs, a .367 OBP, .319 ISO, .414 wOBA, .387 expected wOBA (xwOBA), and 167 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- Even in a down year, Corey Seager has drilled 19 dingers with 56 runs, 48 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .314 OBP, .197 ISO, .321 wOBA, and 107 wRC+ in 423 plate appearances this season.
- In 113 plate appearances against righties at home this season, Griffin Conine has slugged nine home runs with a .425 OBP, .330 ISO, .460 wOBA, and 193 wRC+.
- Walker Jenkins has mashed four taters with a .339 OBP, .250 ISO, .370 wOBA, and 139 wRC+ in 62 plate appearances against righties since the Twins called him up this season.
Friday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>
Jac Caglianone (1B, OF – KC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher
Jac Caglianone has excelled at home, and he should be fresh after getting a night off last night. In 69 games and 270 plate appearances at home this year, Caglianone has recorded 72 hits, including 12 homers, with 39 runs, 36 RBIs, a .287 batting average, .275 expected batting average (xBA), .333 OBP, .219 ISO, .362 wOBA, and 128 wRC+.
Carter Jensen (C – KC): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs — Higher
Carter Jensen didn’t reach base in any of his four plate appearances last night. Nonetheless, in 69 games and 276 plate appearances before last night, Jensen rattled off 63 hits, including 12 home runs, 45 runs, 34 RBIs, a .260 batting average, .241 xBA, .344 OBP, .244 ISO, .366 wOBA, and 131 wRC+.
Griffin Conine (1B, OF – MIA): 0.5 Hits — Higher
Griffin Conine has 56 hits and a .264 batting average in 247 plate appearances against righties this year. He has dominated at home with the platoon advantage, though. Conine has 32 hits and a .330 batting average in 113 plate appearances against righties at home this season.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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