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This is ‘The Watchlist.’ This column is designed to help you monitor and pick up fantasy baseball players in the coming weeks and months. Whether they’re waiver wire or trade targets, these are the players you’ll want to add now before they become the next hot waiver commodity or trade target.
Using underlying and advanced metrics, ‘The Watchlist’ will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards later from your waiver wire pickups.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves + holds league or even a starter doing well despite misleading surface-level stats like ERA.
They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and a different kind of player entirely. The point is, they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
Javier Sanoja was mentioned in this column earlier in the season as someone to add ahead of a potential uptick in fantasy production, considering his upcoming schedule at the time.
That’s very much the case once again as late August slowly gives way to September.
Sanoja is batting .279 on the season with a .317 on-base percentage (OBP) with six home runs and six stolen bases. He’s not making much in the way of loud contact, what with just a 2.3% barrel rate, a .276 xwOBA, a .329 xSLG, a 30.7% hard-hit rate and a .276 xwOBAcon.
What Sanoja is doing is making a bunch of contact. Like a lot. The infielder, as of the start of play on Monday, ranked in the 100th percentile with just an 8.4% strikeout rate, and he sits in the 98th percentile in whiff rate (11.6%).
Fortunately for Sanoja and for fantasy managers, the infielder will see a fairly fantasy-friendly slate of upcoming games.
Following the Marlins’ current series against the Boston Red Sox at home, Miami will take on the Washington Nationals (four games) and Kansas City Royals (three games) on a seven-game road trip.
Entering play on Monday, the Nationals’ pitching staff had the league’s fifth-lowest strikeout rate (19.8%). The Royals, meanwhile, have the league’s third-lowest strikeout rate (19.2%).
Sanoja is batting .338 with a .368 OBP, three home runs and a .231 ISO in his last 68 plate appearances since the start of August. Given the Marlins’ upcoming schedule and how often the 23-year-old makes contact, more base hits should be on the way.
If the ISO remains anywhere near what it’s been in the last month, Sanoja could be an instrumental player in plenty of late-season fantasy or fantasy playoff matchups.
Tim Tawa is hitting just .250 on the season with a .302 OBP, a 94 wRC+, eight home runs and seven stolen bases on the season.
Currently seeing plenty of time at first base, don’t let Tawa’s season-long numbers fool you. He’s been much more productive as of late, especially in terms of fantasy counting stats.
The infielder is batting .298 with a .327 OBP, seven home runs and six stolen bases in his last 152 plate appearances since July 10th, with a .345 xwOBA and a wRC+ that is 22 points above league average.
During that span, well, since July 10th specifically, Arizona has scored the third-most runs in the league, ranking behind only the Red Sox and Cubs. The Diamondbacks are also third in collective wRC+ during that stretch.
Moving forward, the Diamondbacks will close out the season with 19 of their last 30 games from Tuesday onward against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league in collective FIP, including three in the season’s final week against the Rockies in Colorado.
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Ben Rosener is a fantasy baseball writer whose work has appeared on the digital pages of FantasyPros, Pitcher List and Bleacher Report. He also writes weekly fantasy baseball columns and provides weekly dynasty (top 700) and redraft (top 500) rankings updates for his own Substack page, Ben Rosener’s Fantasy Baseball Help Substack. He only refers to himself in the third person for bios.
Another week has come and gone, and it is time to look ahead at upcoming fantasy baseball matchups. I will be here every week this season to suggest which fantasy baseball streaming pitchers you should start to win your matchups.
I will be using the FantasyPros streaming pitchers rankings to help determine my picks. Feel free to sync your league and take a look at your own to find high-potential starters available on your waivers.
Please keep in mind that starters can get off schedule, and some projected starters can be pushed back due to circumstances such as injury and weather.
Let’s take a look at the best streaming options for the week ahead.
George Klassen is a very intriguing rookie. He has pitched only 21.2 innings, but has 21 strikeouts and has flashed great potential in a small sample size. He has an ERA of 3.74 and has allowed only three runs in 17 innings since being called up again in August. The 24-year-old shows great potential.
Klassen is facing the Guardians, who are last in baseball with a team OPS of .684. Stream the hard-throwing righty against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Alternative: Jose Urquidy (SP – CWS) vs. TEX | 4% Rostered
Adrian Houser is having yet another solid season, with an ERA of 4.06 across 108 innings. He has been just about average this season, outside of his last three starts. Since August 7th, the veteran has thrown 16 innings of one-run baseball, with 12 strikeouts.
Tuesday is a day without many great streaming options, but the 33-year-old has the momentum to be a decent option against the 62-69 Reds, who have lost seven of their last 10 games. The Reds also have a team OPS of .699, one of the worst in baseball.
Rely on Houser to continue his hot streak against a struggling team.
Alternative: Jackson Jobe (SP – DET) vs. TBR | 10% Rostered
Shane Bieber is one of my favorite streamers this week, if not my overall favorite pick. Has he shaken off the rust after returning to baseball in late June? It looks like it.
Bieber has dominated in his last two starts. Across 13 innings against the Rays and Yankees, he struck out 12 and allowed only one run per start. Bieber has easier matchups ahead, especially one versus the 58-74 Royals.
One area for caution is the Royals’ hot streak. They have won nine of their last 10 games, so it is worth hesitating if they continue to surge throughout Monday and Tuesday. Regardless, the 31-year-old righty has rare waiver wire upside for this time of year.
Alternative: Grayson Rodriguez (SP – LAA) vs. CLE | 2% Rostered
Jake Irvin is probably my least favorite streamer of the week. Alas, we have to pick someone for Thursday, so here we go.
The 29-year-old righty has the privilege of facing the 50-80 Rockies away from their dangerous Coors Field. He has also struck out 76 batters in 77.1 innings, with a K/9 ratio of almost 9.0. This matchup is less about Irvin being good and more about the Rockies being bad. Irvin is a decent strikeout option with win potential facing the ice-cold Rockies.
Alternative: Hayden Wesneski (SP — HOU) @NYY | 5% Rostered
I know, I know. Grant Holmes is always on this list. He is a good pitcher, just not good enough to stay in most fantasy rotations. Similar to Irvin, Holmes becomes a much more enticing stream when facing a bad team like the Rockies.
Unlike Irvin, Holmes is having a pretty good season. He has a 3.64 ERA in 123.2 innings, striking out 100 batters. While strikeouts have been low, run control has been excellent. The 30-year-old is a high-floor, low-ceiling option against the Rockies.
Alternative: Andrew Painter (SP – PHI) @ LAA | 9% Rostered
Depending on how much you favor momentum, Cal Quantrill could be a great option this weekend. He has only allowed one run across his previous three starts in 18 innings, striking out 17 batters.
The Brewers are not an easy opponent. They have a top-10 team OPS and are 81-50. If you believe in Quantrill’s momentum, the 31-year-old righty is a great streamer. If you believe more in the Brewers’ momentum, then Quantrill is not as great.
Quantrill is a high-risk, high-reward option for Saturday.
Alternative: Bailey Ober (SP – MIN) @ CWS | 16% Rostered
Tyler Mahle is a great streamer to end the week. Once again, he is a streamer playing the Rockies, not in Coors Field. Besides that benefit, Mahle has been lights-out since being traded to the Braves at the deadline.
In four starts since joining the Braves, Mahle has a 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings, with 23 strikeouts. The Braves are unlocking the best from the 31-year-old righty, and he appears to be an excellent streamer for Sunday.
Alternative: Zac Thornton (SP – NYM) vs. HOU | 10% Rostered
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