Average Draft Position tells you what the public is doing. Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) tell you what the sharpest minds in the industry think should be happening. When there’s a gap between the two, that’s where value and risk live. In this Featured Pros breakdown, our analysts identify the early overvalued and undervalued draft targets based on ECR, highlighting which players are being pushed up boards too aggressively and which ones present buying opportunities before the market corrects. If you want to draft with conviction instead of following the crowd, this is where you start.
Overvalued Draft Targets
Who is one overvalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be avoiding in redraft drafts and why?
“The early ECR is pricing Davante Adams as a mid-WR2, and I’m simply not buying it. Last year was actually a red flag season disguised as a good one — he posted a career-low catch rate of 53%, his YAC per reception hit a career low, and the bulk of his production was TD-dependent with 15 scores. That kind of touchdown volume is notoriously hard to replicate year over year. Even though Matthew Stafford is back under center in LA, he may not force-feed Adams in the end zone as he did in 2025 en route to an MVP award. On top of that, Adams turns 33 and dealt with a lower-body tissue injury in 2025 that cost him time — at his age, that’s not something you just brush off. When I look at the totality of it — the age, the injury, the TD regression risk, the declining efficiency numbers — I see a player far more likely to fall off than to replicate what he did last year.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Sitting as the ECR WR7, Malik Nabers is an avoid for me at this point. Not only has his recovery been slower than usual, but we also found out that he damaged his meniscus, along with tearing his ACL. There is also plenty of speculation that the Giants may select a receiver with the 5th overall pick, which may open things up for Nabers while shrinking the passing pie. Under center, Jaxson Dart looked like a promising QB, but left a lot to be desired in the passing game. Although he had limited weapons, 50% of his games had under 200 passing yards. The Giants also hired notorious offensive dead weight, Matt Nagy, as their offensive coordinator. Receivers often take time to return to form after suffering a significant knee injury. Pair that with the overall situation, and there are plenty of other players I’d rather select early in drafts.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
“Malik Nabers tore his right ACL and meniscus in September, putting his offseason on a tight timeline. GM Joe Schoen said at the Combine that he expects Nabers to be ready for training camp, but that’s certainly not a lock. Drafting him in the late first means betting on a smooth rehab and immediate participation in camp. Currently, I’m uncomfortable staking premium capital on that timeline.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)
“Josh Jacobs is currently ranked 26th in the ECR. Jacobs has been a workhorse for a while, and he is showing signs of slowing down. Last year, he only had 3 rushes over 20 yards. He saw a decrease in yards after contact, yards per route run, and missed tackles forced in 2025. He was very touchdown-dependent last year. Do not be surprised if Green Bay brings in another back.”
– David Heilman (Dynasty Trade Calculator)
“Jonathan Taylor is currently the No. 6-ranked player in early consensus rankings. That is scary, considering the way his season ended. He started the season on fire with 17 touchdowns in 10 weeks and 5 games over 100 yards. Then, from week 12-18, when the level of competition increased, he scored 3 touchdowns with NO games over 100 yards. That decline in production should raise red flags for owners heading into 2026, especially with his extremely high ranking.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“My father always told me there are 3 rules in life: Death, taxes, and not spending WR8 ECR/ADP price for the WR37 in fantasy points per game. Yes, Justin Jefferson is one of the most elite WR talents in the league, but he was a WR4 in half-PPR scoring last season with a mix of both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz at quarterback. If the Vikings bring in a veteran to supplant McCarthy, ala Kirk Cousins or even the corpse of Derek Carr, then sure, I’ll re-adjust my point of view — but as it stands right now, in February 2026, the fact remains the Vikings are just as likely to give McCarthy one more season/shot to earn the starting QB job, so he’s more than possible to start the season. Here’s the catch: even if McCarthy stinks, what if he teeters that line in between where he’s no good for fantasy (re: Jefferson/Addison) but not bad enough to get benched? That’s trouble — and with Kevin O’Connell calling the shots, an above-average o-line and an ELITE defense, just how bad does McCarthy actually have to play to get benched? Right now, we’re paying borderline max price for J-Jettas at WR8 ADP. If McCarthy starts the season, I’d 100% prefer a 10x better game environment WR1 ala Chris Olave (Tyler Shough/Kellen Moore OC) or George Pickens with Dak Prescott slinging the rock. Color me SKOL-skeptical.”
– Chris Dell (Betting Predators)
“I’m out on Jameson Williams at a WR18 price tag. Yes, last year he would have “paid off” on this type of draft cost as the WR17 in fantasy points per game, but that’s a tough bet to make again in 2026. Over the last two seasons, Williams has proven not be a high-end target earner, ranking 44th (18.4%) and 51st (18.9%) in target share among wide receivers. During that span, he has also been the WR23 and WR36 in expected fantasy points per game. With Sam LaPorta coming back healthy this season and impacting Williams’ production, it’s tough to be bullish about Williams defying the odds for a third straight season.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I’m stepping down as president of the Jaylen Waddle fan club. Waddle is a terrific player, but the storm clouds are gathering above his head. The hiring of Bobby Slowik as the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator was less than inspiring, and the hiring of former Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo as the Dolphins’ passing game coordinator was downright terrifying. And now there’s talk of Quinn Ewers potentially getting a shot as Miami’s starting quarterback in 2026? Unless I get a deep discount on Waddle, I think I’m going to be out on him this year.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“I won’t be drafting a lot of Quinshon Judkins at his current RB23 ECR and mid-round ADP. That price assumes growth, but his rookie profile was volume over efficiency. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry, ranked outside the top 25 in yards after contact per attempt per PFF, finished outside the top 30 in explosive run rate, and posted under a 7 percent target share with fewer than 2 targets per game. Cleveland still has no clarity at quarterback, the offensive line graded outside the top half of the league in run block win rate and adjusted line yards, and now you add a Dec. 21 dislocated ankle and broken fibula. Per Dr. Jeff Mueller, he could be active Week 1, but similar injuries often take 10 to 12 months before a back regains 80 to 90 percent explosion, and I’m not paying RB2 prices for that profile.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Undervalued Players
Who is one undervalued player based on early expert consensus rankings (ECR) that you’ll be targeting in redraft drafts and why?
“There’s a world where Zay Flowers is a top-5 fantasy wide receiver. Over 1,200 yards, 86 catches, and a WR7 finish in 2025. He was a WR3 over the final five weeks, posting 4+ catches in 13 of his 17 games. He ranked 5th in target share at 28%, 11th in air yards share at 35%, and 4th in yards per route run behind only Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Luther Burden. The one knock has always been touchdowns — he finished with just 6. But here’s the thing: he scored 5 TDs over his final four games alone. The scoring just took time to catch up. And when you look at the trajectory — improving every single year — the Antonio Brown Year 4 explosion comp starts to feel less crazy and more inevitable. Declan Doyle comes in as the new Ravens OC, a guy who just ran the most plays per game in the league with Chicago. The Ravens ranked 29th in pace last season. Doyle’s offense is built to hunt explosive plays, and Flowers finished third in PlayerProfiler.com’s explosive rating in 2025.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Let’s not completely forget about Jonathon Brooks. After back-to-back season-ending knee injuries (one in college and one as a rookie in the NFL), the 2024 second-round back will likely return for his third season. As a prospect, Brooks was touted as a dynamic runner who combines elusive playmaking with quick burst. He also has pass-catching prowess, providing three-down potential. With Sherwood Park native Chuba Hubbard holding down the lead role, we saw Rico Dowdle have explosive moments working in tandem. In fact, Dowdle had taken over the job for a portion of last season. With Dowdle likely moving on, there is a clear path for a second back on this offence. There will be questions around his ability to return from two significant knee injuries; however, ECR has him ranked as the 172nd player and RB59. At that price, those questions are worth asking.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
“Jakobi Meyers is perennially undervalued and underappreciated. As of now, the ECR has him as WR35 and pick 78, in between Rico Dowdle and Blake Corum. The Jaguars have already shown that they will feature Meyers in the Chris Godwin role of this offense. He was peppered with targets as soon as he got off the plane. The Jaguars gave him an extension already, and I love him as my 3rd or 4th WR. The projected volume gives Meyers a very safe floor in PPR formats along with the ceiling he flashed in Jacksonville.”
– David Heilman (Dynasty Trade Calculator)
“Parker Washington closed out the 2025 season on fire! He was targeted 9+ times in each of his last 3 games for 347 yards and 2 touchdowns! Over the course of the season, he became Trevor Lawrence‘s top target, eclipsing Brian Thomas in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Jacksonville even announced that Travis Hunter will mainly play defense next year, which could be a sign of increased confidence in Washington heading into the 2026 season, and at his current 11th-round ranking, that is a steal!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“There are plenty of reasons to doubt Malik Willis as an NFL franchise QB: Limited sample size, previous passing struggles with Tennessee, and questionable free-agency landing spot/offensive coordinator pairing. The flipside of that argument, however, is that he could be THE league winner at his position in 2026 — and right now he’s ranked by ECR as QB20 and 141st overall behind the likes of Hunter Henry and Brandon Aiyuk (REALLY, ECR?). Early insider reports out of NFL free agency are showing that Willis is the #1 free agent in the entire league, with up to 4-5 teams expected to pursue him. Willis brings an elite blend of rushing upside and (recently improved) passing efficiency that could set fantasy leagues on fire come 2026. In both games he started for Green Bay in 2024-2024, where he attempted at least 15 passes, he has weekly finishes of QB6 and QB3 with a combined line of 31-for-40, 490 passing yards, 2 TDS, 0 INTs, and a rushing line of 15 carries for 133 yards and 2 TDs. People will point to his early-career struggles in Tennessee and coming from a small college (Liberty), but guess what? Players are allowed to improve, and imagine if spending two years under Mike LaFleur is precisely what he needed to learn the NFL game? At a potential ADP price of QB20, I’m all in. I personally have him ranked as QB9 for 2026, but that could be light. Would you really be surprised if, in 17 full games, he averaged more points per game than Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jalen Hurts, or Jaxson Dart? That’s the kind of upside I want to buy.”
– Chris Dell (Betting Predators)
“As an avowed mid- to late-round quarterback investor, I want to find the next wildly undervalued stud at the position — the Drake Maye of 2026. I think it could be Malik Willis. In six career starts, Malik Willis has averaged 44.8 rushing yards per game and has run for four touchdowns. He’s averaged about 8.5 fantasy points per game just with his legs. Willis showed some passing ability in 2026, too. When Jordan Love sustained a concussion midway through the second quarter of the Packers’ Week 16 game against the Bears, Willis came off the bench and completed 9-of-11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown in two and a half quarters. Playing the entire game against the Ravens in Week 17, Willis completed 18-of-21 passes for 288 yards and one touchdown. In those two games, he completed 84.4% of his passes and averaged 12.8 yards per attempt. Willis was a major project when he entered the league, but the two seasons he spent in Green Bay learning from Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and his staff have clearly paid off. Landing spot might adjust the dials on my enthusiasm level, but I intend to be a Willis stakeholder this year. ”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Javonte Williams at RB21 is easy money. Why do people seem to hate Williams? He just got the bag from Dallas and was the RB11 in fantasy points per game last year. Dallas should field a top-end offense again in 2026, and Williams should soak up all of the volume he can handle. Last year, he ranked 14th in opportunity share and fifth in red zone touches while racking up 285 touches and 1,338 total yards. Williams wasn’t just a wonderful source of volume, but he was efficient as well. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 16th in explosive run rate, eighth in rushing success rate, and third in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Getting an RB1 at an RB2 price tag can be league tilting pick. If his draft cost remains at this level, I’ll be drafting him as much as possible.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I’ll be overweight on Bhayshul Tuten at RB31 and 87 overall because the market is lagging on the Jaguars backfield situation. Travis Etienne is almost assuredly out, which opens up 250-plus touches in a Jacksonville offense that ranked 6th in points per game at 27.7, 10th in yards per game at 338.6, and 9th in plays per game at 63.7. That opportunity, plus Tuten’s traits, and you have league-winning upside. Tuten ran 4.32 with a 1.49 split and posted elite explosion numbers, and even in a capped rookie role (lower than 33% of snaps per game), he ranked 14th in yards after contact per attempt at 3.22, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt at .18, and 5th in success rate at 57.8 percent while scoring 7 touchdowns. If he steps into 15 plus touches per week, RB31 will not hold through August.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
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