The Green Bay Packers present a lot of problems for opponents, whether it’s on offense or defense. Their skill players are as good as any in the NFL, even if they don’t have a true No. 1 receiver for Jodan Love to throw to. At running back, Josh Jacobs is seventh in the league in rushing and the defense has forced the most turnovers of any team.
The Rams will be tested by this impressive Packers team on Sunday in an attempt to inch closer to .500. In order to do so, they’ll need to win these five individual matchups.
My wife and I just finished putting the kids to bed and were taking the dog out. Taking the dog out is our Monday Night tradition as it gives us a break from all the awkward pauses on the ManningCast. I’m about 40 feet out the door while my wife is setting up the baby monitor for a walk down the driveway when I see something.
It’s between the neighbors’ cars. Dark, it looks like a boulder. Not a boulder, though. It’s a rotund fuzzy friend pilfering through the contents of a 90-gallon trash can. He’s eating like he hasn’t tasted pay dirt in three weeks. Residents of the Midwest or the Northeast know what I’m looking at here. This one is known to take advantage of weakly defended garbage.
Our visitor turns to look at me. I whisper loudly to my wife: “Get in the house! D’Andre Swift is in the neighbor’s driveway!”
Nico Collins with the second 0.30 FGW game from a WR this season (Ja’Marr Chase also hit 0.30). No fantasy WR has scored over 30 points while in >26% of fantasy managers’ lineups yet this season.
We should have known Jordan Mason was good. That, my friends, is a great football name, especially for a running back. Two first names evoke an image of Michael Jordan working as a stone mason; it sounds like a name they’d give a character in Friday Night Lights. There was no way Isaac Guerendo was beating him out.
This was one of these weeks where we were happy to see two Monday Night games. Much more fun watching Kenneth Walker duel with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown than Mason Rudolph vs. Tyler Huntley. Also, if Mike McDaniel has a rule where he can only cut his hair after a win, things are about to get pretty shaggy around here.
Jayden Reed: 55% started. That will probably pick up here as he has double the receiving yards of any other Packers receiver thus far. Not saying he will stay the No. 1 WR for Green Bay, just that his percentage started will go up in fantasy start sit decisions this week.
I can’t stop watching the Tyreek Tirade. Something about how he’s not yelling at anyone in particular (and thus is yelling at Mike McDaniel) paired with McDaniel’s expression is the perfect antidote to what Jets fans like myself experienced on Sunday.
Mark Andrews is still at 72% started despite doing absolutely nothing for fantasy managers again. It wouldn’t shock me if that meant 72% of Mark Andrews fantasy managers decided to retire from fantasy football and just left him in their starting lineup.
The abject horror of this list has me legitimately shaken up. I don’t understand how we can have this many good football players performing this badly. More on that later in the article.
I have a feeling this won’t be the last time a Packers receiver leads the junior varsity All-Stars. Jayden Reed may not lead it again, but Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson all have it in them to go nuts on the week nobody starts them.
Speaking of cheese packers, hopefully, all the Andrews and Pitts managers start boiling their lineups in anticipation of mixing in some Tucker Kraft.
I had no idea McWeapon (Jeremy McNichols) was still around. Snoop must be proud.
Jayden Reed with the double-duty this week, cracking the top 15 for winners and junior varsity All-Stars. Was a busy weekend for Reed riding all these school buses. We’ll see if the field trip to SoFi Stadium leads to more success or a student loan offer.
Keep That Bear Box Locked
There’s a saying for those who live around bears:
If it’s brown, lie down. If it’s black, fight back. If it’s white, say good night. If it’s dark blue, tell them I’ll start you. Not many people know this, but the white has nothing to do with polar bears, it’s for when the Bears are on the road in 2024.
Hopefully, you’ve been able to bear 2024 to this point. By my math, only 27 non-kicker/non-D/ST fantasy players have outperformed their draft position. Either way, good luck in Week 5. Even if your team plays dead, it’ll be fun to watch Vikings invade England again.
The Los Angeles Rams have put their 24-18 loss to the Chicago Bears behind them and have turned their attention to the Green Bay Packers. They’ll face Matt LaFleur’s squad on Sunday afternoon at SoFi Stadium, a game the Rams desperately want to win in order to avoid falling to 1-4.
History says this will be a tough game for the Rams to win, given their recent record against the Packers. But that’s why they play the games on grass (or turf) and not paper.
Here are eight stats and facts to know for this Week 5 matchup in Inglewood.
Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
Week 4 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool freelyaccessibleeverywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Dontayvion Wicks‘ 200 air yards down to Josh Downs‘ 60. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 4. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.
Top Takeaways From Week 4 Air Yards Data
Sticky Wicks
With Christian Watson going down to an ankle injury on Sunday, it became the Dontayvion Wicks show in Green Bay. Wicks saw 200 air yards over 13 targets, which was good for a 24% target share and a 34.8% air yards share. As you can see above, Wicks' day could have been much bigger. He led the league in air yards but only caught five of 13 targets for 78 yards. Add in a few more receptions and we would be talking about one of the season's greatest wide receiver performances.
We don't have an exact timeframe for how long Watson will be out, but Wicks is going to get a boost in usage regardless. Wicks jumped from 46% of the snaps in Week 3 to 76% in Week 4. He had more targets in that game than in his other three games combined. Can we count on 13 targets and 200 air yards every week? No, but with some increased efficiency, even 8-10 targets and 125 air yards could mean big things for Wicks.
Are We Going to Die on That Hill?
The discrepancy between Tyreek Hill's 129 air yards and his actual 23 receiving yards sticks out on this table. The problem is, with no other option right now besides Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson, how much do we expect positive regression for Hill in the weeks to come?
The fact Hill had a very strong 18.4 aDOT but caught just four passes for 23 yards speaks to how inaccurate Huntley was with deep balls on Monday night. The Dolphins have to find a way to get Hill in more crossing screens or underneath plays where he can just have his speed take over.
Tyreek Hill only had 35 air yards in Week 3, so this is certainly an improvement, but he managed 40 receiving yards on three receptions. Maybe Hill's path to success doesn't rely on deep throws in the weeks to come, but on lower air yards and higher success rate throws.
Which player led the entire NFL in percentage of his team's air yards in Week 4 (non-Dolphins edition)? It wasn't Wicks or Courtland Sutton or Malik Nabers. George Pickens has emerged in Pittsburgh as a real threat based on how well Justin Fields is playing. He added to an already strong season with 11 targets for seven catches and 113 yards on Sunday.
At 54.7%, George Pickens now leads the entire NFL in air yards share over the first four weeks. He has a strong 12.9-yard aDOT, which is a good number and puts him in the company of players like Nico Collins, Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin. It's noticeable Pickens doesn't have an aDOT in the neighborhood of 15+ yards as he has in the past. His more manageable and catchable targets are leading to massive production while teams have to focus on making sure Fields doesn't scramble in the open field against them.
Davante Adams wanting a trade is potentially extremely important for Jakobi Meyers' fantasy prospects. Whether or not that trade happens remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be shocked it Adams does not play another down for Las Vegas. He wants out. Why would Antonio Pierce play him? Perhaps already preparing, Meyers saw 10 targets on Sunday for a strong 104 air yards.
It was not Gardner Minshew's most accurate game as a pro. Meyers caught just five passes for 49 yards. Brock Bowers had his first dud game. But Meyers got 41.7% of the team's targets and 52.5% of their air yards. Las Vegas is currently calling pass plays on almost 64% of their snaps (fourth in the NFL), so potentially 25% of targets opening up for Meyers would be huge for him and make him an easy fantasy start sit option.
Clarence Caasalan and Agon De Vera are thrilled at the prospect of baseball being played in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. For now, though, the focus is on the Baseball Federation of Asia (BFA) East Asia Men’s Baseball Cup that the country will host from Oct. 29 to Nov. 4 in Clark, Pampanga—with higher stakes
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