MLB DFS Picks, Sleeper & Underdog Player Props: Thursday (5/22)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has five games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested pick ’em choices from Sleeper and Underdog are from the five-game slate.

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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Tuesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) at WAS

AJ Smith-Shawver is a holdover after yesterday’s game was postponed. He’s the most appealing pitcher on tonight’s small DFS slate, albeit with mixed numbers this season. According to FanGraphs, the 22-year-old righty has an unappealing 4.88 xERA and 10.6 BB% in seven starts spanning 38.2 innings this year. However, he also has a 2.33 ERA, a 3.72 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA, 24.8 K%, 12.4 SwStr% and 29.1 CSW%. Even if Smith-Shawver’s pitching skills are closer to his xFIP and SIERA than his ERA, he’s a decent option in a mid-pack matchup tonight.

The Nationals are 18th in wRC+ (101) with a 20.7 K% versus righties and tied for 13th in wRC+ (108) with a 22.0 K% at home this year. Thus, the Braves are -150, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.

Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. CLE

Jack Flaherty’s 4.44 ERA and 4.63 xERA in nine starts spanning 46.2 innings this season aren’t anything to write home about. However, his 3.33 xFIP, 3.24 SIERA and 28.9 K% are DFS-friendly marks. Flaherty isn’t a safe pick on tonight’s slate, but none of the pitchers have a high floor.

Still, the Guardians are tied for 19th in wRC+ (100) with a 20.6 K% versus righties this year, albeit eighth in wRC+ (106) with a 19.6 K% on the road this season. It’s not a perfect matchup, but Flaherty’s betting info is favorable. Detroit is -135, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Road (Fenway Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/BAL -104

Lucas Giolito had a fabulous three-year stretch from 2019 through 2021. Unfortunately, the bottom fell out in 2022 through 2023, and he missed the entire 2024 season while recovering from having an internal brace repair for the ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing elbow. Giolito has found a new low in his return to the bump. In four starts this year, Giolito has a 7.08 ERA, 5.31 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA and 1.52 WHIP. The veteran righty has yielded a .378 wOBA to 43 lefties and a .366 wOBA to 47 righties as well. Tonight is an eruption spot for the Orioles at hitter-friendly Fenway Park if Mother Nature allows them to play this contest.

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -150

The Braves are my favorite fall-back stack if the game at Fenway is washed off the slate. Fortunately, two of the forthcoming players in the core studs and value/punts section are from the Braves, and they have some other intriguing pivots at similar salaries to the Orioles. In nine starts this year, Trevor Williams has an ugly 5.91 ERA. Furthermore, he’s coughed up a .342 wOBA to 256 left-handed batters since last season.

Core Studs

• Matt Olson has a .373 OBP, .263 ISO and 142 wRC+ versus righties since 2023.
• Gunnar Henderson has a .353 OBP, .270 ISO and 153 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since 2023.
• Cedric Mullins has 10 homers, 23 runs, 31 RBIs, seven stolen bases, a .332 OBP, .236 ISO and 132 wRC+ in 190 plate appearances this season.

Value Plays/Punts

• Ryan O’Hearn has had a .341 OBP, .183 ISO and 127 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
• Drake Baldwin has hit four homers with a .429 OBP, .246 ISO and 193 wRC+ in 70 career plate appearances against righties.
• Jackson Holliday has hit six homers with 16 runs, 19 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .325 OBP, .170 ISO and 121 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances this year.

Thursday’s Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet >>

Matt Olson: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Sleeper) (1.68x)

Matt Olson: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)

In addition to having a track record of success against righties, Olson is on a nuclear heater. In his last four games and 18 plate appearances, Olson has eight hits (three singles, two doubles, zero triples and three homers), four runs, five RBIs, a .500 OBP, .688 ISO and 340 wRC+.

Marcell Ozuna: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Sleeper) (1.67x)

Marcell Ozuna: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)

In 45 games and 197 plate appearances this season, Marcell Ozuna has hit eight homers with 22 runs, 22 RBIs, a .416 OBP, .195 ISO, 147 wRC+, .388 wOBA and .419 xwOBA. He’s also roughed up Williams. Per Baseball Savant, in 37 career plate appearances against Williams, Ozuna has had a .314 batting average, .384 xBA, .343 SLG, .590 xSLG, .308 wOBA and .429 xwOBA.

Cal Raleigh: 6.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.71x)

Cal Raleigh: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)

Cal Raleigh is smashing this season. In 208 plate appearances in 2025, he has hit 16 homers with 32 runs, 33 RBIs, five stolen bases, a .370 OBP, .335 ISO, .404 wOBA, .396 xwOBA and 172 wRC+. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers has been a train wreck this season. McCullers has a 7.88 ERA, 8.74 xERA, 6.78 xFIP and 6.01 SIERA in three starts this season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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