The first suggested stack for Week 4 NFL DFS isn’t shocking. The second features one of the slate’s best bargains, but pivoting off that bargain player can give you leverage against the field in GPPs if you stack the contest differently. The core studs and the values/punts feature four players from the two suggested games to stack, but two running backs also get the nod.
NFL DFS Picks & Predictions: Week 4
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Bengals vs. Jaguars
Spread/Total: CIN -2.5/51.5 Points
This game has the highest total on the main slate by 3.0 points, and the game’s slight spread sets the table for a shootout. The Bengals are home favorites, and their offensive formula remains the same.
It’s the Joe Burrow show. According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, Cincinnati is second in pass rate over expected (8.6% PROE) this season. The Jaguars are ranked 29th in PROE faced (-5.7%) this year, but take that with a grain of salt. They faced the Browns in Week 1, and they beat the brakes off the Patriots last week. In regular season games since last year, they’re tied for the fourth-highest PROE faced (3.0%).
Burrow had an underwhelming opener, but he’s tallied 489 passing yards (244.5 per game), 7.45 adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A), five passing touchdowns, and zero interceptions in two subsequent contests, scoring 19.88 DraftKings points per game and 19.88 FanDuel points per game in the last two weeks. The Bengals lost a shootout last week, and the Jaguars have the firepower to push Burrow into a ceiling performance through the air.
His top passing-game weapon will be featured in the core studs. However, Tee Higgins is also an outstanding stacking option in double stacks, and he has one-off or skinny-stack appeal, too. Higgins has the following stats in three games this year:
- 82.3% route participation rate
- 22.3% target share
- 0.25 targets per route run (TPRR)
- 26.0% first-read rate
- 44.8% air yard share
- 4.7 receptions per game
- 81.3 receiving yards per game
- 2.62 yards per route run (Y/RR)
- 1 red-zone target
- 1 end-zone target
- 1 receiving touchdown
- 14.80 DraftKings points per game
- 12.47 FanDuel points per game
Higgins is a fantastic Robin and can post the best numbers in Cincinnati’s wideout room in any given week.
Mike Gesicki is a tight end in name only. He’s a wideout in practice, and with Andrei Iosivas injured, the faux tight end can keep playing well. Gesicki has a 51.3% route participation rate, 2.7 receptions per game, 38.3 receiving yards per game, 1.98 Y/RR, two touchdowns, 10.5 DraftKings points per game, and 9.17 FanDuel points per game this year.
Jacksonville’s quarterback and No. 1 wideout are forthcoming below. Brenton Strange is a cheap add-on to that stack, though. Strange isn’t a highly targeted part of the offense because of the high-caliber receiving alternatives. Still, Strange has a 71.3% route participation rate, two red-zone targets, one end-zone target, and one receiving touchdown this year.
He can boost his production this week by facing the Bengals. Cincinnati has coughed up the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (17.7) and the eighth-most FanDuel points per game (13.8) to tight ends this year, and those marks are aided by bottling up Tampa Bay’s unimposing tight ends in Week 1. Of course, the Bengals were also the NFL’s laughingstock against tight ends last year, allowing NFL highs of 21.0 DraftKings points per game and 17.6 FanDuel points per game.
Bhayshul Tuten can also have success against the Bengals after Jaylen Warren trounced them for 127 rushing yards at 7.47 yards per carry and added three receptions for 49 receiving yards.
Tuten has emerged as Jacksonville’s featured back, handling 43 of the backfield’s 73 carries (58.9%), and three of the carries Tuten didn’t handle were on the team’s final drive in garbage time last week. Removing those three carries, Tuten’s backfield carry share would climb to 61.4%. Tuten has effectively averaged 68 rushing yards per game at 4.74 yards per carry, with two rushing touchdowns.
Among 36 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, Tuten is also 10th in explosive run rate (14.6%), 12th in stuff rate (39.5%), and eighth in success rate (58.1%). The second-year running back isn’t a big contributor in the passing attack, but he’s not a total non-contributor, either. Tuten has averaged 1.7 receptions per game and 12.0 yards per carry, with 1.24 Y/RR.
Game: Giants vs. Cardinals
Spread/Total: ARI -2.5/44.5 Points
Arizona’s rookie running back will likely be chalky, but he should be, and he is included below. Gamers shouldn’t sleep on their highly concentrated passing attack in GPPs, though. The Cardinals are 12th in PROE (2.9%) this year, and Jacoby Brissett has been a DFS asset and remains underpriced. In 17 starts since last season, Brissett has scored 17.70 DraftKings points per game and 16.99 FanDuel points per game.
Trey McBride was a monster last year, and he’s continuing to smash this season. The stud tight end has the following marks through three games:
- 85.5% snap share
- 81.5% route participation rate
- 28.2% target share
- 0.33 TPRR
- 32.5% first-read rate
- 26.8% air yard share
- 8.7 receptions per game
- 70.3 receiving yards per game
- 7 red-zone targets
- 4 end-zone targets
- 2 receiving touchdowns (both on end-zone targets)
- 2.8 expected receiving touchdowns
- 19.70 DraftKings points per game
- 20.86 expected DraftKings points per game
- 15.37 FanDuel points per game
- 16.93 expected FanDuel points per game
Michael Wilson is the other stellar selection in Arizona’s passing game. His 6.0 receptions per game, 54.3 receiving yards per game, and one receiving touchdown are rock-solid, but his 25.6% target share and 42.6% air yard share can lead to better days ahead, as evidenced by his 15.82 expected DraftKings points per game and 12.94 expected FanDuel points per game outpacing his 13.43 DraftKings points per game and 10.43 FanDuel points per game, respectively.
Cam Skattebo is atop the table above, but the Arizona passing attack is the most appealing part of the game stack, upcoming rookie running back notwithstanding. A game script that’s optimal for Arizona’s passing game is one that’s favorable for Skattebo.
The second-year running back is coming off a hefty workload, albeit with 100 scoreless yards. Nonetheless, Skattebo toted the rock 20 times for 60 yards and added three receptions for 40 yards. His presence in the passing game does give him outs if the Giants are in a negative game script, and his 75% share of Big Blue’s rush attempts inside the five-yard line this year also bodes well for his touchdown potential. Skattebo’s hold on high-value touches gives him a DFS-friendly ceiling if he reaches paydirt and catches a few passes.
Core Studs
- Parker Washington broke out last year, and he’s not slowing down. Among 75 wide receivers with at least 60 routes this year, Washington is fourth in target share (28.4%), second in targets per route run (0.34), tied for 14th in receptions per game (5.0), 13th in receiving yards per game (73.7), tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (two), 12th in DraftKings points per game (16.37), and 10th in FanDuel points per game (13.87). The DFS optimizer is a Washington fan this week, projecting him as the WR7 with the WR4 value score (the measure of points per $1,000 of salary) at DraftKings and the WR8 with the WR2 value score at FanDuel.
- Ja’Marr Chase had only two receptions for 12 scoreless yards in Week 1, but it’s been wheels up for him since. In the last two weeks, Chase has a 30.9% target share, 0.28 TPRR, 43.5% first-read rate, 42.7% air yard share, 8.0 receptions per game, 86.5 receiving yards per game, 2.34 Y/RR, three end-zone targets, three receiving touchdowns, 25.65 DraftKings points per game, and 21.65 FanDuel points per game. Chase is projected as the WR2 at both DFS outlets in Week 4.
- A few stud running backs are worth adding to your DFS portfolio this week, and James Cook is among them. Cook has played in 27 regular-season victories since 2024, but one was Week 18 last year, when he carried the ball only twice for 15 yards, giving him a little more wiggle room to protect the rushing title. Tossing that game out, Cook has averaged 21.93 DraftKings points per game and 19.26 FanDuel points per game in the other 26 wins.
Value Plays/Punts
- The Jeremiyah Love backfield takeover began last week, as he had 21 carries for 90 yards versus two for negative one yard for Tyler Allgeier. Love also ran 21 routes compared to 20 for Allgeier and caught five passes for 19 yards and a touchdown. Love’s salary hasn’t caught up to his Week 3 role, and he has a sweet matchup against the Giants. Big Blue has allowed the 10th-most DraftKings points per game (22.0) and FanDuel points per game (20.0) to running backs. As a result, the DFS lineup optimizer projects Love as the RB4 with the RB1 value score at DraftKings and the RB6 with the RB2 value score at FanDuel.
- In two games without Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones has handled 40 of Minnesota’s backfield’s 46 carries (87%) for 163 yards. In addition, in Kyler Murray‘s return last week, Jones had five receptions for 34 yards. His workload is too big to fail, especially against the Dolphins. The rebuilding Dolphins have allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game (29.3) and FanDuel points per game (27.1) to running backs this year. Jones is projected as the RB10 at DraftKings and the RB11 at FanDuel, with the RB7 value score at the former and the RB4 value score at the latter.
- After Jacksonville’s Week 7 bye last year, Trevor Lawrence was the QB1 in DraftKings points per game (23.81) and FanDuel points per game (23.51). He’s demonstrated that ceiling, and he’s off to a good start to the season, even if his fantasy scoring hasn’t been elite. Among 31 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks this year, Lawrence is eighth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt (7.47) and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns (seven). A shootout environment is precisely what he needs for a blow-up showing. Lawrence is projected as the QB3 at both DFS providers, tying for the QB3 value score at DraftKings and tying for the QB2 value score at FanDuel.
Week 4 Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Brock Bowers: 76.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Brock Bowers rattled off 116 receiving yards in his season debut against the Saints last week. His underlying data was dreamy. Klint Kubiak fed his top passing-game option with the Seahawks last year, and he did the same to Bowers last week. Bowers had a 94.6% route participation rate, 39.4% target share, 0.37 TPRR, 50.0% first-read share, and 41.7% air yard share. Bowers should have another big effort in a contest where the Raiders will need to keep up with the favored Chiefs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 90.5 Receiving Yards – Higher
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the not-so-mystery player Kubiak fed last year. Fortunately for JSN, new offensive coordinator Brian Fleury understands the importance of feeding JSN the rock. Smith-Njigba has rattled off 122, 155, and 128 receiving yards this year. The alpha wideout has a 37.5% target share, 0.41 TPRR, 44.3% first-read rate, and 52.6% air yard share, supporting his jaw-dropping receiving yardage outputs.
Bhayshul Tuten: 55.5 Rushing Yards – Higher
The Bengals have allowed 4.46 yards per carry to running backs this season. They held Houston’s ineffective backfield in check, but they coughed up 45 rushing yards on only eight carries to Bucky Irving in Week 1 and 127 on 17 carries to Warren last week. The explosive and effective Tuten should carry the ball enough to gash them for at least 56 rushing yards this week, and the FantasyPros consensus projections project him to rush for 62.2 yards.
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