We asked our Featured Pros for the player they feel will be this year’s biggest fantasy football bust. Check out their answers, some of which may surprise you.
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2026 Consensus Busts
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust and why?
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): ADP 4.7 | RB3
“Christian McCaffrey. The issue isn’t talent; it’s the price and risk profile. He’s entering his age-30 season after a massive 413-touch workload, and we’re already seeing his workload managed again this preseason. His rushing efficiency also declined last year, so at a first-round price you’re relying heavily on another huge workload and another healthy season. Given his age, injury history, and recent volume, I’d rather be a year early moving off McCaffrey than spend premium draft capital hoping he beats those warning signs again.”
– Billy Pinder (FFHAP)
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR): ADP 5 | WR2
“Puka Nacua is my biggest bust candidate, although this is entirely about price rather than talent. He is being drafted near the top of Round 1, where another dominant season is already assumed, but he is currently managing psoas soreness and has enough injury history that the downside cannot be ignored. There is also unresolved off-field uncertainty that adds risk to an already expensive selection. The Rams’ improved defense may reduce the number of games where Matthew Stafford needs to force the offense through Puka at last season’s historic rate. Puka can remain one of the NFL’s best receivers and still be the player most likely to hurt fantasy teams relative to what they paid.”
– Jay Henry Ocho (Jay Henry Ocho)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA): ADP 12 | RB7
“De’Von Achane is my pick to be one of the biggest fantasy busts this season because his current draft cost assumes he can maintain nearly all of the production that made him elite in previous years. Achane has averaged 86 targets and 72.5 receptions over the last two seasons, but much of that receiving volume came with Tua Tagovailoa, who targeted running backs at a very high rate. Miami is now starting Malik Willis, who has historically targeted running backs far less often and is more likely to scramble rather than check the ball down. That matters because Achane averaged 21.5 PPR points per game with Tua over the last two seasons compared with just 10.5 points per game without him. Miami also lost Mike McDaniel, and the offense no longer has the same surrounding talent stretching defenses, which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities and lower overall efficiency. Achane is still being drafted around RB6, so even if he remains a good fantasy starter, a meaningful drop in receptions, touchdowns, or efficiency could make him a major disappointment relative to his first-round price.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV): ADP 15.7 | RB10
“I’m sure this will be a popular answer, but Ashton Jeanty will be the biggest bust of the season. Jeanty has been regularly going at the back end of the first round in drafts, and that’s far too early. At that price, there are far safer picks at both running back and wide receiver that also have his upside. Jeanty is nursing an ankle injury already, and it’s unclear exactly how much time he is going to miss. Add in a rookie quarterback and an offense devoid of any other elite talent, and this offense is likely to struggle heavily. Jeanty is going to be the bellcow when he is healthy, but that may not mean much in this offense. I was already of the stance that he needed to play every game in order to meet his ADP; missed time due to an ankle injury makes him a long shot to come anywhere near that. Jeanty is a third-round pick in fantasy drafts.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
“Ashton Jeanty has been on a rollercoaster of bad news since becoming a Raider. First, he had an awful Rookie season where he failed to play like an RB2 despite the ridiculous high ADP; BEAST DOME ranked Jeanty lower than every expert site in the 2025 preseason. Second year was supposed to be good for Jeanty with a new coach and some new help on the offense. However, the biggest new help on the offense is a rookie RB who is more talented than Jeanty: Mike Washington Jr. MWJ is a very explosive RB who looks ready to be a heavy part of the Raiders’ offense after a big preseason; then Ashton Jeanty sprained his ankle. There is zero chance Jeanty gets a HUGE load of carries this season. Despite all this negative news, Jeanty is still going Round 1/2 once again.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Drake London (WR – ATL): ADP 20 | WR7
“Drake London has developed into one of the best young wide receivers in football, but his WR7 price requires fantasy managers to overlook one of the league’s most uncertain quarterback situations. London remained highly productive when available last season, recording 68 receptions, 919 yards, and seven touchdowns despite missing five games. He also ranked eighth among wide receivers in yards per route run, fifth in target share, and third in red-zone target share, proving that he can command elite volume when healthy. The issue is that his underlying efficiency was not as dominant as the fantasy production suggests. London finished 57th in average depth of target, 70th in separation, and 37th in fantasy points per target, making him heavily dependent on maintaining one of the largest target shares in football. That volume is less secure under Kevin Stefanski, whose offenses have historically spread targets around rather than funneling them through one receiver at an extreme rate. Atlanta also enters the preseason with both Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa managing injuries, creating a realistic possibility that London deals with inconsistent quarterback play throughout the year. He has produced through poor quarterback situations before, but the standard changes when he is being drafted as the WR7. London needs to stay healthy, maintain an elite target share, receive stable quarterback play, and increase his efficiency to significantly beat this price. He can have another strong season without delivering top-seven value, making him a player I would fade in the second round.”
– Ryan Linkletter (Blitz Sports Media)
Brock Bowers (TE – LV): ADP 22 | TE1
“Brock Bowers is my biggest bust candidate of the four, mostly because of the price. He’s coming off a season disrupted by a lingering knee injury, and now he’s entering a new offense with uncertainty at quarterback. I still think Bowers is an elite talent, but spending an early-round pick on a tight end requires him to provide a significant positional advantage. If the new offense takes time to settle or Bowers simply has a good season rather than an elite one, he can underperform that draft cost without actually playing poorly.”
– Stephen Floyd (Draft With Doug)
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI): ADP 28 | RB14
“The Arizona Cardinals have low implied team point totals, a difficult strength of schedule, and a projected bottom-tier win total, which all reduce the number of red-zone and goal-line opportunities available for Jeremiyah Love. Even worse, he’ll be splitting carries with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, who both have strong short-yardage resumes, making Love’s touchdown equity less secure than his draft price suggests. The issue with Love is not talent; it is cost relative to environment, and now he’s dealing with a high ankle sprain, making him questionable at best for Week 1. For Love to beat expectations, he likely needs strong rushing volume, meaningful receiving work, goal-line dominance, good health, and an unexpectedly competent Arizona offense. That is a long list of assumptions for a rookie back in a committee-leaning depth chart on a low-total team…”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)
“Jeremiyah Love at RB14 and 28th overall is my biggest bust at running back, and this has nothing to do with the talent; it has everything to do with how many things have to go right for him to pay off that price. Love is already nursing an ankle injury, while Arizona has a legitimate stable of backs with Tyler Allgeier and James Conner, giving them little reason to force a massive workload onto their young back. There’s also a scenario I don’t think we’re talking about enough: if the Cardinals are out of contention late in the year and Love is still dealing with the ankle or picks up another nagging injury, what’s stopping them from protecting him or shutting him down entirely when fantasy championships are being decided? Love could be a terrific NFL player, but at 28th overall, I’m drafting for league-winning upside, and I see far more paths to him failing to return that investment than I do to him meaningfully outperforming it.”
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG): ADP 28.3 | WR12
“Malik Nabers is coming off of two surgeries to repair his torn ACL. Even though he seems to be doing better, there is zero chance he’ll be 100% at any part of the 2026 season. It takes most athletes two years after their surgery until they feel 100%. Malik’s first surgery was done on October 28, 2025. He needed a second one to clean up excessive scar tissue, which was causing constant joint stiffness. There is no way Nabers should be anywhere close to a top 20 WR in 2026, in my humble opinion. Bust”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“After suffering a major injury last year, it is fair to wonder how up to speed Malik Nabers is going to be to start the regular season. While all indications out of Giants camp are positive, the risk may outweigh the reward for fantasy managers this year. If Nabers requires time to get going, fantasy managers will not have the luxury of waiting around for Nabers to return to full 100% health. The Giants star wideout is currently coming off the board at 29th overall (WR12), and that simply is way too hefty of a price to pay for a player with those kinds of injury-related questions headed into 2026.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC): ADP 32.7 | WR14
“I don’t understand why Rashee Rice is ranked so highly in consensus ADP. He’s had trouble staying healthy. He’s had trouble off the field. He’s not an elite separator, and the Kansas City offense has been ordinary the last two years. Generally, you don’t like to dismiss any player out of hand; you suppose that there could be a price where you’d be tempted. That doesn’t apply here.”
– Scott Pianowski (Yahoo! Sports)
Colston Loveland (TE – CHI): ADP 41 | TE3
“Colston Loveland – The Bears have the most ambiguous receiving room in the NFL heading into 2026, meaning there is uncertainty regarding who the top option in the offense will be. Ambiguity creates an opportunity for drafters, but we must know the best ways to attack it – dating back to 2016, the highest-drafted options in these offenses have exceeded ADP expectations at lower rates than the later-drafted ones. Additionally, tight ends in ambiguous situations have proven to be much worse bets than non-ambiguous TEs. Rome Odunze missed games and played through injury during Loveland’s end-of-season breakout, and Burden was much less productive than his ADP implies he will be this year. I love Loveland as a talent but am worried the market is overconfident in his role in the offense – I’d rather get my piece of the Bears in Burden or Odunze later in drafts.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Ladd McConkey (WR – LAC): ADP 41 | WR18
“The Chargers are a team that most fantasy owners are expecting to have many fantasy stars this year due to the integration of a Mike McDaniel offense. Ladd McConkey is expected to be the WR1 for the team, and that is going to be the downfall of many fantasy managers. He is currently the WR20. In his career from college to the pros, his rookie year was his only 1,000-yard receiving year. He is on a team with many unproven but capable pass-catchers. Owners who draft him around pick 45 will be depending on him for consistent weekly production, and they will be let down as Justin Herbert will spread the ball and Quentin Johnstone has a breakout year. If he fell a few rounds later, he would be a sleeper, but this high, he is a bust.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
DJ Moore (WR – BUF): ADP 47.7 | WR22
“DJ Moore is easy to like after landing with Josh Allen, but I think fantasy managers are pricing in too much of a bounceback. Moore is coming off a season in which his target share and efficiency both declined, and Buffalo has not needed to funnel its passing game through one receiver. He can still be a useful fantasy option, but I have him ranked as a WR3 while he’s being drafted as a WR2. At that price, I’m not convinced the target volume will be high enough for him to return value.”
– Doug Burrell (Draft With Doug)
Drake Maye (QB – NE): ADP 51.7 | QB3
“I expect Drake Maye to be the biggest fantasy bust this season. I get it, AJ Brown and Doubs definitely help to replace Stefon Diggs and Boutte from last season. However, we saw in the playoffs that teams started to figure out Drake Maye quite a bit. I think he will still be a good QB, but paying a QB3 price tag at ADP over QBs like Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow? Feels a bit extreme, especially with a much tougher schedule this season. Unless he falls another round or two in ADP, he will not return that value where he is being drafted.”
– Shawn Gill (Super Fantasy Bros)
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN): ADP 53 | QB4
“For me, it’s Joe Burrow, who’s coming off the board as the QB4 based on Real-Time ADP. Even in a year where quarterbacks are being pushed down the board because the position is so deep, the fifth round feels too pricey for a guy who rarely runs. Besides Dak Prescott, Burrow is the only quarterback being drafted inside the top 12 who offers little rushing upside. That matters because, for Burrow to pay off at this cost, you’re betting on him staying healthy and producing another 4,500-yard and 40-TD season through the air. He did that in 2024, throwing for 4,918 yards and 43 scores, and still could only get to QB3 in fantasy points per game. Burrow also struggled from an efficiency standpoint last year: 19th in fantasy points per dropback (0.51), 21st in EPA (+69.8), and 24th in red zone completion percentage (52.4%). Without the rushing to raise his floor, Burrow will have a tough time paying off at cost unless he just goes nuclear and has another outlier passing campaign. Two rounds later, I’d rather take Prescott, who has similar projectable passing volume, or one of the guys who can offer something with their legs.”
– Wolf Trelles-Heard (FantasyPros)
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE): ADP 57.3 | RB26
“If you’re drafting TreVeyon Henderson as your RB2 this season, you’re in for a long season, as Henderson could be the biggest bust in fantasy football. TreVeyon Henderson finished his rookie season as the RB24 in fantasy points per game, but it wasn’t nearly that productive for fantasy managers when you look at the full breakdown of how it unfolded. In Weeks 10-11, Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t active, and Henderson feasted with 60.3 combined PPR points, which accounted for 29.2% of his overall fantasy production for the season. If you take those two monster games out of the equation, Henderson would have averaged 9.8 PPR points per game, which would have made him the RB33 in fantasy points per game. Without Stevenson in the lineup in Weeks 9-11, Henderson averaged 19 touches and 110 total yards. With Stevenson active, Henderson had 11.2 touches and 57.2 total yards per game. This isn’t to shade Henderson, but I’m trying to give context to his rookie season that will be overlooked at first glance. I don’t know how Henderson overtakes Stevenson in 2026 if both of these players continue to post per-touch efficiency metrics like they did last season. Last year, Henderson was bested by Stevenson in every metric that I care about, namely explosive run rate, missed tackle rate, yards after contact per attempt, yards per route run, and pass protection stats. Among 49 qualifying backs, Henderson ranked 12th in explosive run rate, but he was also 32nd in missed tackle rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Henderson could eat into Stevenson’s workload more in 2026 if he can take another step and pay off as an RB2, but he’s best viewed as an upside RB3.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): ADP 88.7 | WR37
“Courtland Sutton is primed to be one of this year’s biggest fantasy busts as his target share collapses in a suddenly crowded Denver Broncos offense. Jaylen Waddle’s arrival immediately creates a new primary option, and training camp reports already show strong chemistry between Waddle and Bo Nix. His ongoing friction with the organization in recent years, plus added competition from Evan Engram, RJ Harvey, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims, further squeeze Sutton’s volume. His decline from a former WR1 into a secondary option makes him a risky bet at his cost.”
– Lawrence Iacona (FantasyPros)
Jaxson Dart (QB – NYG): ADP 97.3 | QB11
“I’m worried about Jaxson Dart. Running QBs are a cheat code, but Dart runs with a recklessness that invites injuries. Although he had his moments as a passer last season, I fret that Dart won’t be even a league-average passer this season unless we get 17 games from WR Malik Nabers, which seems unlikely. And should we trust Giants offensive coordinator Matt Nagy and senior offensive assistant Greg Roman to maximize Dart’s abilities? I’m drafting around Dart and would rather place my mobile-QB bets on Kyler Murray or Malik Willis.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Jaxson Dart is being drafted around QB11 after finishing as the QB7 in points per game as a rookie, but a lot of that fantasy production came from nine rushing touchdowns in only 12 starts. As a passer, he threw for 2,272 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt, so I think there is more risk here than his draft price suggests. I have Dart down at QB15, and if those rushing touchdowns come back to earth, I think he has a tough time paying off a borderline QB1 price. The injury concerns are real too after five concussion checks last season, and he was already sent to the medical tent after taking a big hit in the preseason opener.”
– Justin Fuhr (Pro Football Mania)
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR): ADP 106.3 | QB13
“Matthew Stafford is still excellent, but the Rams may not need another MVP-level passing season from him. Their defensive front now ranks first in PFF’s 2026 unit rankings after adding Myles Garrett, which could create more controlled game scripts and fewer weeks where Stafford must carry the team through volume. The quarterback position is also deep enough that I would rather wait than pay for last season’s career year. Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey enters his age-30 season after another enormous workload and has already missed camp time with tightness. He was San Francisco’s most important offensive option last year, but Mike Evans and De’Zhaun Stribling give Brock Purdy more viable ways to move the ball through the passing game. McCaffrey can still be great, but the age, current physical concerns, and first-round cost create too many ways for the investment to disappoint. Puka Nacua: Puka is an elite receiver, but the price leaves almost no room for physical or off-field disruption. He is currently managing psoas soreness after dealing with multiple injuries in previous seasons, and unresolved off-field allegations create another layer of uncertainty. We have already seen how quickly a first-round Puka selection can become a problem when his body does not cooperate. Colston Loveland: Loveland is very good, but his price asks him to become a major positional difference-maker. Even a strong season of 70 catches, 800 yards and eight touchdowns, or even ten, may not justify taking him in the third or fourth round when Rome Odunze, Luther Burden and the rest of Chicago’s offense also need targets. That stat line would be useful, but at this price, useful is not enough.”
– Jay Henry Ocho (Jay Henry Ocho)
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