Expectations are high for an Arizona State football team coming off a berth in the College Football Playoffs and No. 11 on the preseason AP top 25 poll.
Computer models, however, are dinging the Sun Devils in multiple models.
The Opta Analyst TRACR data model had ASU ranked No. 30 behind Kansas State (25), Baylor (26), Kansas (27) and Texas Tech (28), but ahead of BYU (40) and Iowa State (42).
ASU comes in at No. 30 in the final preseason edition of the SP+ rankings. It’s a ranking model based on tempo and opponent-adjusted measures of efficiency developed by ESPN analyst Bill Connelly.
Kansas State (18) and Utah (26) were the top ranked teams in the Big 12.
He says part of the reason ASU’s ranking takes a hit is its weak conference.
The Big 12’s best in 2024. Arizona State (No. 11 in the polls, No. 30 in SP+), Iowa State (No. 21 in the polls, No. 31 in SP+) and BYU (No. 25 in the polls, No. 36 in SP+) went a combined 33-8 last season, 21-6 in conference play. But they were also a combined 15-5 in one-score games, and that’s awfully hard to replicate. All three are projected near the top of the nutty Big 12 again this season, but so are a lot of other teams that didn’t get the same bounces.
RELATED STORIES
Strength of schedule is a component in the model and ASU (61), Iowa State (51) and BYU (64) all take a negative hit in the category.
Not the first ranking model to snub ASU
ASU was also given a middling ranking by Opta model that ranked the Sun Devils No. 5 in the Big 12 heading into the 2025-26 season.
What should we take away from this information? We are going to have to see how a wide open Big 12 conference plays out on the field.
With Kansas State and Iowa State kicking off the college football season on Aug. 23 in Dublin, Ireland, all rankings will sort themselves out in game action.
It’s like head coach Kenny Dillingham said sarcastically about preseason polls:
“Polls are always accurate so we should really lean into it.”
from Arizona Sports https://ift.tt/F7Ogq2o
0 comments:
Post a Comment