Put aside for a minute that the Arizona State Sun Devils’ Big 12 title defense got off to a pixelated start in the opener against Northern Arizona.
Week 1 of the college football schedule provided a reality check about how difficult ASU’s path through the conference will be, regardless of the team’s status exiting the nonconference schedule that includes a visit to Starkville, Mississippi, and a hosting of Texas State.
Going by the FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday morning, the Sun Devils’ first six games of their Big 12 schedule include the five other teams with the highest odds to win the Big 12 (plus Houston). Three of those games are on the road.
Five of the top-six favorites to win the conference are undefeated after Week 1 (sorry, Baylor).
All have high-profile quarterbacks in charge. Most had strong defenses and run games to flex alongside the signal callers in their Week 1 games (sorry, Baylor).
Let’s go in order of highest odds to win the Big 12 to cover all of those land mines ASU will have to avoid in the first two months of the season.
No. 25 Utah Utes (+490) face ASU at home on Oct. 11
Week 1: Defeated UCLA, 43-10
Reminder: Arizona State was the last school to navigate the Cam Rising will-he-play-or-not ritual while preparing to play Utah before landing a final blow to his playing career.
Rising has since retired, and while Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham is going to retire soon, it appears he is going out with one last strong swing. It’ll be made possible by nailing the transfer portal to find a Rising replacement.
Saguaro High School product and quarterback Devon Dampier’s transfer from New Mexico to Utah through one week looks like his skillset will transfer well. He went 21-for-25 for 206 yards, two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown while leading the Utes with 16 carries and 87 yards on the ground.
The defense shut down Tennessee QB transfer Nico Iamaleava, limiting the new Bruins quarterback to 11-of-22 passing for 136 yards, a touchdown and an interception.
ESPN’s Paolo Uggetti wonders if it’s the Utes who should be viewed as the clear favorite in the Big 12. Bettors say that’s already true.
TCU Horned Frogs (+550) face ASU in Tempe on Sept. 26
Week 1: Defeated North Carolina, 48-14
Man, we should have seen the script being written this way. Bill Belichick’s UNC squad on paper was at a talent deficit, and a TCU team led by a college head coach lifer in Sonny Dykes was not going to have any problems finding the soft spots of the Tar Heels.
Predictably, the Horned Frogs were annoyed at all the attention on UNC and put the foot on the gas pedal well into the fourth quarter to make a point.
Anyway, another well-balanced team with defense, a run-first mentality (7.4 yards per carry) and a quarterback who can command the offense. TCU’s Josh Hoover went 27-for-36 for 284 yards and two scores.
No. 24 Texas Tech Red Raiders (+600) face ASU in Tempe on Oct. 18
Week 1: Defeated Arkansas Pine-Bluff, 67-7
Excuse my lack of Arkansas Pine-Bluff film intake to make a firm judgment here, but this seemed like a decent showing for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton is 50 passes from 1,000 in his Tech career and threw four touchdowns and as many incompletions in 20 throws. He had a passer rating of 230.4 for the game before he was pulled with lower leg soreness (tests all came back negative).
Hard to say how significant the season-long loss of running back and prized transfer Quinten Joyner will be through that one game against a middling opponent, but the Red Raiders averaged 10.6 yards per pop between all the rushers with 296 yards on the ground.
The ‘crutin money so far looks well spent.
No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils (+600) defeated NAU, 38-19
The always aggressive Dillingham put the ball in the hands of Sam Leavitt, who threw it 39 times to 21 rushes despite fine production (9.7 yards per carry) on the ground.
There will be a fine line to balance on — overusing a Heisman candidate QB who can use his legs at the risk of him getting hurt — if that’s a season-long thing. Meanwhile, the defense will have to show a little more after NAU moved the ball relatively decently at moments.
Even though Arizona State’s schedule misses No. 17 Kansas State and BYU — the Cougars beat Portland State 69-0 — there are more land mines toward the back-half of the schedule.
That includes a Rich Rod-reinvigorated West Virginia team (at home Nov. 15) and the Arizona Wildcats (at home Nov. 28), who looked sharp to begin Brent Brennan’s second iteration in a 40-6 win over Hawaii.
No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (+750) face ASU at home on Nov. 1
Week 1: Defeated South Dakota, 55-7
After eeking out a Week 0 win over Kansas State in Ireland, coach Matt Campbell’s Cylones cruised with quarterback Rocco Becht going 19-of-20 for 278 yards and three scores.
Iowa State tried to keep things respectable with 42 rushes to 25 passes but still put up a 55-spot.
Baylor Bears (+800) face ASU at home on Sept. 20
Week 1: Lost to Auburn, 38-24
The one dud for a Big 12 contender happened at home for the Bears. If we’re leaning into the three themes of quarterbacks, defense and running games, Baylor only checked one of the three boxes.
Sawyer Robertson went 27-of-48 for 419 yards and three touchdowns, but the Bears’ rushing attack (64 yards on 2.7 per carry) and run defense (307 yards allowed on 5.9 per carry) told the story.
from Arizona Sports https://ift.tt/ghC7VSO
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