NFL Week 4 is complete. More injuries. But my Patriots won. So life is good. And the New England fall foliage remains undefeated.
But let’s get to business. Because I’ve got back-to-back weddings this weekend.
- Waiver wire targets.
- Trades to make.
- Start/sit decisions.
Let my “Beyond the Waiver Wire” series be your compass, guiding you to Week 5 fantasy football success.
No fluff (or less fluff). Trust me, I am trying my best. Advanced metrics/data are provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS).
LFG.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Fantasy Football Beyond the Waiver Wire: Week 5
Cleveland Browns
Hold KC Concepcion & Denzel Boston
Cleveland won a back-and-forth Thursday night game on the final play of a wild fourth quarter. Pittsburgh struck first on an opening drive that took nearly ten minutes off the clock — 17 plays, 78 yards, 9:48 — capped by a 12-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Roman Wilson touchdown (7-0). Cleveland answered fast: after Denzel Ward intercepted a Rodgers pass intended for Michael Pittman Jr. at the Cleveland 44, the Browns needed just 4 plays and 1:57 to cash it in on Jaleel McLaughlin’s 28-yard touchdown run — his only touch of the entire game (7-7). Following a Pittsburgh three-and-out, Cleveland struck again in only 4 plays and 2:10 — a 60-yard Deshaun Watson-to-Denzel Boston completion setting up Quinshon Judkins’ 2-yard touchdown run (7-14). Pittsburgh’s response drive stalled at a missed 48-yard Chris Boswell field goal (wide left), and Cleveland cashed another long drive — 11 plays, 62 yards, 3:59, including a replay-reviewed defensive-holding call that went Cleveland’s way — into Harold Fannin Jr.’s 2-yard touchdown catch (7-21). Pittsburgh salvaged a Boswell 31-yard field goal just before the half to make it 10-21 at the break.
Both offenses stalled through a scoreless third quarter, Pittsburgh punting three straight times while Cleveland’s own drive ended on a Watson fumble — forced by T.J. Watt and recovered by Watt himself at the Cleveland 50 (4:13 left in the third). The fourth quarter swung hard. Cleveland thought it had the ball back when a deep Watson shot toward Denzel Boston was flagged for defensive pass interference, which would have erased what was ruled on the field as an interception — but a replay review of whether the pass was tipped reversed that call and confirmed the interception.
Pittsburgh turned it into a 77-yard, 6-play, 4:01 touchdown drive — a 21-yard Rodgers-to-Darnell Washington score — but the two-point try failed (16-21). Cleveland answered with a Watson fumble of its own (forced by Cameron Heyward, recovered by Watson himself) that still cost field position and led to a 44-yard Andre Szmyt field goal (16-24). After a Pittsburgh three-and-out and a Cleveland fourth-down stop, Pittsburgh drove 80 yards in 8 plays and 1:50 — D.K. Metcalf catches of 22 and 28 yards plus a defensive pass interference penalty moving the chains — for a 3-yard Rodgers-to-Pat Freiermuth touchdown, and this time the two-point conversion (a Rodgers quarterback rush) succeeded, tying the game at 24-24 with 1:46 left. Cleveland’s final answer needed only 7 plays, 36 yards, and 1:32: Szmyt’s game-winning 56-yard field goal with 15 seconds left sealed it, 27-24. Pittsburgh’s last-gasp possession ended on Rodgers’ second interception of the night, this one to Grant Delpit, intended for Roman Wilson.
Pittsburgh actually won time of possession in the first half it trailed (17:55 to Cleveland’s 12:05) and finished with the overall edge too (31:11 to 28:49), while posting 24 first downs (8 rush/11 pass/5 penalty) to Cleveland’s 22 (6/14/2) and 361 total net yards to Cleveland’s 372 — genuinely even statistical margins that the final field goal, not a statistical gap, decided. Third-down efficiency favored Cleveland (40% to Pittsburgh’s 30.8%), and Cleveland was perfect in the red zone (2-for-2) to Pittsburgh’s 2-for-3. The turnover battle was even — two takeaways apiece (both Pittsburgh’s coming via Rodgers interceptions; both Cleveland’s coming off Watson, one interception and one lost fumble) — but Cleveland’s much higher penalty total (14 for 88 yards, to Pittsburgh’s 8 for 50) didn’t stop the Browns from winning the field-position and red-zone battles that actually decided the game.
Deshaun Watson went 24-of-33 for 268 yards and 1 touchdown, with 1 interception (94.0 rating), adding 7 carries for 22 yards and 2 fumbles (1 lost). His first half (14-of-17, 181 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 130.6 rating, 0 sacks) was dramatically more efficient than his second half (10-of-16, 87 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 2 sacks for 8 yards) — nearly all of his passing production and his only touchdown came before the break. Compared to Week 3 (16-of-30, 144 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 88.8 rating), his completion rate and yardage both rose sharply even as his touchdown total fell and he posted his first interception and lost fumble of the two tracked weeks — a much higher-volume, slightly more turnover-prone week overall.
Watson has led a game-winning drive in each of the last three games, the longest such streak of his career (Next Gen Stats).
Quinshon Judkins’ 66% snap share comfortably outpaces Raheim Sanders’ 34%, and Judkins’ touch volume (17 carries, 7 targets) dwarfs Sanders’ (2 carries, 2 targets) — but the most remarkable backfield line of the night belongs to Jaleel McLaughlin, whose entire game consisted of one offensive snap, one carry, and a 28-yard touchdown. Sanders was a true second-half-only factor — every touch, rushing and receiving, came after halftime. Sanders carried 2 times for 9 yards and caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards
Judkins was notably more efficient after the break (9 carries for 39 yards in the second half vs. 8 for 14 in the first).
Compared to Week 3 (18 carries, 70 yards, 0 TD, 2 targets/2 rec/9 yds, 51% snaps), his rushing touchdown finally arrived (one of two goal-line carries), and his receiving role expanded significantly (2 → 7 targets). Caught 6 of 7 targets for 43 yards. He set career-highs with seven targets and six receptions — the latter of which led the Browns on Thursday night — on just 14 routes, racking up 43 receiving yards, his second-most ever (per Next Gen Stats).
He still split routes with Sanders, so his receiving will vary week to week (like last week’s dip), but the overall upside is a major boost to Judkins’ ROS value.
K.C. Concepcion caught 5 of 8 targets (24% target share) for 64 yards, with the bulk of his production coming before halftime (4 catches, 58 yards on 5 targets) against a quieter second half (1 catch, 6 yards on 3 targets). His snap share rose to 92% (from 86% in Week 3), and — more importantly — his catch rate finally caught up to his target volume after a rough Week 3 (2-of-9 officially, a true 3-of-11) that this project flagged as a clear buy-low signal; this week’s 5-of-8 is exactly that positive regression showing up.
Denzel Boston caught 4 of 7 targets (21% target share) for a team-high 89 yards, almost all of it before halftime (3 catches, 74 yards on 5 targets, including the 60-yard connection that set up Judkins’ touchdown) against a quieter second half (1 catch, 15 yards on 2 targets). Compared to Week 3 (4 targets, 2 rec, 41 yards), his volume and yardage both rose clearly — continuing to look like Cleveland’s clear No. 1 WR option even without a touchdown this week. He also had another catch wiped off because the Browns elected to accept a penalty…so he actually matched Concepcion with 8 targets.
Harold Fannin Jr. caught 3 of 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown — his lone second-half catch (3 targets, 1 catch, 12 yards) came on his scoring play, with the rest of his modest production (2 catches, 15 yards) arriving in the first half on 2 targets. Compared to Week 3 (9 targets, 7 rec, 51 yards, 2 TD), his target volume dropped significantly, but he scored again—now with a touchdown catch in back-to-back games. 89% snap share and 94% route participation.
Jerry Jeudy, demoted from the starting lineup, still produced his best game of the season (3-of-3 for 36 yards) — entirely in the second half, on only 38% of offensive snaps.
Notable in-game injuries were almost entirely on the defensive side and non-fantasy-relevant: Cleveland’s Mason Graham (Out, Q1→Q3) and Tyson Campbell (injured Q4, returned). Graham’s injury isn’t considered long-term but could sideline him in Week 5.
Next four matchups (CLV): Wk5 at NYJ (Road) | Wk6 vs BLT (Home) | Wk7 at TEN (Road) | Wk8 at PIT (Road)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Drop Michael Pittman Jr., Add Roman Wilson, Sell DK Metcalf
Aaron Rodgers’ two interceptions (one of them a Hail Mary) bookended an otherwise productive, three-touchdown night — Pittsburgh’s offense generated 361 total net yards and actually out-possessed Cleveland in the first half it trailed, but the turnovers (plus a missed field goal) were the difference in a one-score loss.
An unshared nearly perfect workhorse week — Jaylen Warren’s 97% snap share dwarfs Travis Homer’s 3%, and Warren handled every meaningful backfield touch (17 carries, 6 targets) to Homer’s 2 token carries. Warren’s first-half rushing (10 carries, 61 yards, 6.1 YPC) was considerably more efficient than his second half (7 carries, 32 yards), consistent with Pittsburgh controlling the ball with a lead for most of the first half before the game tightened.
Warren carried 17 times for 93 yards and caught 3 of 6 targets for 33 yards, on a bell-cow 70 of 72 offensive snaps (97%) — again the clear, unshared Pittsburgh backfield engine, with Travis Homer limited to 2 token carries on just 3% of snaps. His first-half work (10 carries, 61 yards, 6.1 YPC) was considerably sharper than his second half (7 carries, 32 yards), and his receiving line was similarly front-loaded relative to targets (3 of his 6 targets came in each half, but 2 of his 3 catches and 20 of his 33 yards came before the break). Compared to Week 3 (17 carries, 127 yards, 90% snap share, 4 targets/3 rec/49 yds), his snap share actually rose again (90% → 97%) even as his rushing yardage came down on the same carry total, and his target volume rose (4 → 6) while his receiving yardage fell (49 → 33) — the role keeps strengthening even in a week the per-touch production dipped.
The only thing that kept Warren’s usage from being perfect… red-zone usage. Homer logged 2 carries for -1 yard on just 2 of 72 offensive snaps (3%), but they were both in the red zone (one at the goal line).
Notable in-game injuries were almost entirely on the defensive side and non-fantasy-relevant:
D.K. Metcalf’s night was a tale of two halves: just 22 of his 115 yards came before halftime, with 93 of them (and three of his five catches) arriving in Pittsburgh’s fourth-quarter comeback push.
Metcalf caught 5 of a team-high 9 targets (22.5% target share) for 115 yards — his best yardage total of the season — but did not score. The box score badly understates how front-loaded his production was in reverse: just 2 catches for 22 yards on 4 first-half targets, then 3 catches for 93 yards on 5 second-half targets, with his three second-half gains (43, 28, and 22 yards) accounting for nearly all of his night and coming almost entirely within Pittsburgh’s game-tying fourth-quarter drive. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets, 2 rec, 31 yards, 1 TD), his volume and yardage both jumped sharply even though he’s now gone two straight weeks with uneven touchdown luck relative to his role.
Metcalf finally turned his high usage into production on Thursday night after failing to hit over 41 yards in any contest. Colts next week could make things tougher for him against CB Sauce Gardner…so I like him as a sell high (albeit Gardner has struggled in coverage over the last two games). Metcalf feels so dependent on the big play even though he has 9-plus targets in ¾ games this season. He sees so much downfield usage that makes him much more boom-or-bust, especially attached to a QB like Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ aging QB has taken a lot of hits already this season (16), so I have major reservations about whether the Steelers can continue to play with this pass-happy offensive approach.
Roman Wilson caught 3 of 6 targets for 74 yards and the game’s opening touchdown (a 12-yard connection), his second consecutive week opening Pittsburgh’s scoring on the team’s first touchdown drive. He was injured on a fourth-quarter catch but returned before being targeted (unsuccessfully, intercepted by Grant Delpit) on Pittsburgh’s final, game-ending possession. His production was heavily first-half (2 catches, 61 yards pre-half, including a 49-yard gain, against just 1 catch for 13 yards after). Compared to Week 3 (6 targets, 3 rec, 60 yards, 1 TD — also an opening-drive score), his target volume held flat while his yardage rose modestly — a real, repeatable complementary role behind Metcalf, not just a one-week spike, even as he continues to play a non-starter’s snap share (31%, down slightly from Week 3).
I’d imagine his snaps increase because he actually ran fewer routes than Bernard…despite being targeted at a 33% clip. Wilson has six targets in every game this year, but his routes have dipped with Pittman healthy in the last two games.
Per Next Gen Stats…Wilson’s 1.9 yards per route leads the team (min. 50 routes), along with his 24% target rate.
Michael Pittman Jr. and Warren’s receiving role both effectively ended at halftime — Pittman’s four targets were all in the first half (zero thereafter), and the same split shows up in Warren’s receiving line.
Pittman Jr. caught 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards — and every one came in the first half, even though his 72% snap share held steady.
Darnell Washington caught 3 of 5 targets for 27 yards and a touchdown — his second-half score (a 21-yard catch) was his only reception after halftime, on 3 of his 5 targets; his first-half work was limited to 2 catches for just 6 yards on 2 targets. Compared to Week 3 (4 targets, 3 rec, 67 yards, 0 TD), his target share ticked up again, but his yardage came down, offset by his first touchdown in this tracked stretch — a continuation of a real, gradually expanding role (71% snap share this week, in line with his recent run). The Steelers tried to hit him in the red zone multiple times (three end-zone targets). Back-to-back games with 50% route participation.
Pat Freiermuth caught 3 of 5 targets for 17 yards and the game-tying touchdown with 1:46 left — his only second-half catch came on just 2 targets, with the rest of his modest production (2 catches, 14 yards) arriving in the first half on 3 targets. His 75% snap share is a real increase from Week 3’s 60%, and his target volume ticked up too (4 → 5) even as his yardage came down.
Germie Bernard caught both of his targets for 11 yards — entirely a second-half factor, with zero first-half targets. His snap share rose to 40% (from 27% in Week 3) even as his target count ticked up only modestly (1 → 2).
Pittsburgh’s Derrick Harmon (Out, Q3) and Jamel Dean (Out, Q2→Q3) both got hurt on Thursday night.
The Steelers could be without Dean for “a couple of weeks” due to an ankle injury. Harmon is expected to miss multiple weeks after exiting Thursday’s 27-24 loss to the Browns due to a foot injury. Don’t fear this defense in any capacity.
Next four matchups (PIT): Wk5 vs IND (Home) | Wk6 at TB (Road) | Wk7 at NO (Road) | Wk8 vs CLE (Home)
New York Jets
Buy Garrett Wilson & Braelon Allen & Kenyon Sadiq
New York’s offense produced just 157 net yards, 7 first downs and 12 points on 32 plays — 0-for-7 on third down, 3 sacks, 17:15 of possession — with its only touchdown a 58-yard Isaiah Williams catch on the second play of a Q4 drive. The Week 3 passing game (37 attempts, 321 yards) became 15 attempts and 119 yards.
The target pie shrank with the volume as the Bears completely controlled the time of possession: on 15 attempts, each target is 6.7 points of share. Garrett Wilson fell from 13 targets/34.2% (Week 3) to 4/26.7%; Kenyon Sadiq was 0-for-4 (26.7% share) after a 7-catch, 105-yard Week 3.
Williams rose from 2 targets/5.3% to 3/20.0% on one big play; Jeremy Ruckert, who had 5 targets and a touchdown in Week 3, had none.
With Breece Hall out, Braelon Allen was the only New York back (14 carries/59 yards, 2 catches/8 yards), and the only red-zone work (two carries from the CHI 13 and 11) came on one field-goal drive.
Geno Smith went 8-of-15 for 119 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions (101.8 rating), with 3 sacks for 21 yards and no carries. His first half was 3-of-8 for 18 yards with 2 sacks (45.8 rating); his second half was 5-of-7 for 101 yards and the touchdown, including the 58-yard completion on a deep-middle throw (Williams) and a 14-yard catch to Wilson that began that drive. Red-zone usage: one red-zone pass attempt, incomplete (his lone red-zone pass attempt was the 3rd-and-4 incompletion to Sterling Shepard at the CHI 7, Q3 7:09). Compared to Week 3 (31-of-37, 321 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 carries/12 yards, one lost fumble), a sharp drop in volume (37 → 15 attempts) and yardage (321 → 119) with one touchdown instead of three; he threw no interceptions in either game. Takeaway: a stalled, protection-limited week (3 sacks on 18 dropbacks) with a game script that gave him little to throw; the 58-yard completion is the only meaningful pass play.
Braelon Allen carried 14 times for 59 yards (4.2 YPC) and caught both of his targets for 8 yards (a 13.3% official/adjusted target share). He was New York’s only back to touch the ball with Hall out.
Braelon Allen was New York’s only back to touch the ball, handling all 14 carries and both RB targets (16 touches, 67 scrimmage yards).
Elite Snap share 94%: Played 30 of New York’s 32 snaps for 16 touches
His first half was 6 carries/29 yards and a 5-yard catch; his second half 8 carries/30 yards and a 3-yard catch, including five straight carries to open the third quarter (5, 6, 5, 10, -5). Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for +6 yards (CHI 13 and CHI 11, Q3); no carry inside the CHI 7, no red-zone target, no touchdown; no red-zone carry in the first half. Compared to Week 3 (4 carries/14 yards, 4 true targets/10.5% adjusted, 52% snaps, taking over after Hall’s injury), carries rose from 4 to 14 and yardage from 14 to 59, while the target count fell from 4 to 2. Takeaway: he was the entire backfield (16 touches), but on a 32-play offense the ceiling was 16 touches; Hall’s availability status is the swing variable for Week 5. Encouraging that Allen touched the ball on half of the Jets’ offensive snaps.
New York ran only 16 offensive plays in each half. With 32 total plays and a 0-7 third-down day, the volume ceiling is the story, not Allen’s role.
Garrett Wilson caught 3 of 4 targets for 27 yards (a 26.7% official/adjusted target share). Snap share: pending (94% in Week 3). His first half was 2 targets/2 catches/13 yards (6 and 7 yards on 3rd-and-7 and 3rd-and-12); his second half was 2 targets/1 catch/14 yards (a 3rd-and-4 incompletion and a 14-yard catch that began the touchdown drive). No red-zone targets. Compared to Week 3 (13 targets/10 catches/107 yards and a touchdown, 34.2% adjusted), Wilson’s share fell 7.5 points, and the targets plummeted from 13 to 4. But Gang Green’s No. 1 WR still posted a 26.7% target share – still tied for the team lead, but 4 targets on a 15-attempt offense capped the production. Nobody can produce for fantasy in an offense that attempts 15 passes.
Rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq was targeted 4 times and caught none (0 yards; a 26.7% official/adjusted target share, tied for the team lead), all four targets in the first half (Q1 9:12, Q2 14:12, Q2 2:00 and Q2 1:56) and none in the second.
Snap share: 69% (58% in Week 3). Don’t bury him. Snaps went up along with his route participation (67%).
Compared to Week 3 (8 targets/7 catches/105 yards and a touchdown, 21.1% adjusted), the target share rose 5.6 points, but the production fell from 105 yards to zero.
Williams caught 2 of 3 targets for 73 yards and a 58-yard touchdown (a 20.0% official/adjusted target share) and returned a kickoff for 22 yards.
Snap share: 94% (89% in Week 3).
His first half was a single incompletion (Q2 14:16); his second half: 2 targets/2 catches/73 yards (a 15-yard catch in Q3 and the 58-yard touchdown). No red-zone targets (the 58-yard touchdown came from the NYJ 42). Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/1 catch/21 yards, 5.3% adjusted), more share (+14.7 points) and a touchdown on a single play. All 73 of his yards came on two catches (15 and 58), and he had no first-half catch.
Jelani Woods caught his only target for 11 yards.
Sterling Shepard was targeted once on the Q3 3rd-and-4 at the CHI 7 and did not catch it (6.7%; Week 3 1 target/2.6%, 45% snaps). Jermey Ruckert had no target after 5 targets and a touchdown in Week 3 (13.2% adjusted).
Adonai Mitchell was not active for the second straight week.
OT Armand Membou got injured on a Q3 run (7:26), but returned (Q3 2:20). DB Jason Brownlee — injured Q3 (4:18), ruled out (Q4 5:52).
Next four matchups (NYJ): Wk5 vs CLV (Home) | Wk6 at NE (Road) | Wk7 vs MIA (Home) | Wk8 vs LV (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Chicago Bears
Buy Colston Loveland & Hold D’Andre Swift
Chicago out-gained New York 492 to 157 net yards, ran 89 plays to 32, made 34 first downs to 7, and held the ball 42:45 to 17:15 (CHI 5.5 yards per play, NYJ 4.9). New York was 0-for-7 on third down, was sacked three times, and finished with 14 rushes and 15 pass attempts.
The quintessential version of bully ball.
Chicago turned all its offensive volume into only 23 points: it was 2-for-7 in the red zone (2-for-4 on goal-to-go) with three field goals, a turnover on downs at the New York 1, and a final possession that ended in kneel-downs at the NYJ 14. Chicago turned the ball over twice (a Q2 interception and a Q3 lost fumble).
Tyson Bagent started and played the whole game. Bagent went 25-of-34 for 268 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception — with three more would-be interceptions nullified by New York penalties. He will start in Week 5 according to Bears HC Ben Johnson.
The ground game was the offense in Week 4: 54 carries for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Kyle Monangai (30 carries, 146 yards, 2 TD) took over the backfield from D’Andre Swift (15 carries/58 yards and a lost fumble, no touch after it).
Chicago had five stops at the NYJ 1 across three possessions — two Swift touchdowns reversed on replay to a turnover on downs (Q1), two Monangai stops in Q1 before he scored on 4th-and-1, and one more in Q4 followed by a -2 loss and a field goal — and finished 2-for-7 in the red zone and 2-for-4 on goal-to-go despite 492 net yards.
Monangai carried 30 times for 146 yards (4.9 YPC, long 26), scored 2 touchdowns, and caught 1 of 1 target for 4 yards (a 2.9% official/2.6% adjusted target share).
Snap share: 54% (31% in Week 3).
His first half was 12 carries/54 yards and a 1-yard touchdown (the official line includes the holding-erased Q1 4:58 carry at 4 yards); his second half tallied 18 carries/92 yards and a 5-yard touchdown plus the 4-yard catch — 13 of the 18 second-half carries came in the fourth quarter. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 8 red-zone carries for 16 yards and 2 touchdowns; six carries from the NYJ 5 or closer (+3, 0, +1 TD, +5 TD, +3, -2) and three carries from the NYJ 1 (0, +1 TD, -2); he was tackled at the NYJ 1 three times (Q1 1:49, Q1 1:08, Q4 11:32).
Compared to Week 3 (10 carries/31 yards, 0 targets, 31% snaps), the carries tripled, and the yardage rose from 31 to 146, with the touchdowns and goal-line work new. D’Andre Swift carried 15 times for 58 yards (3.9 YPC) and caught 2 of 2 targets for 16 yards (a 5.9% official/5.3% adjusted target share) and lost a fumble (Q3 8:52).
Snap share: 35% (69% in Week 3).
His first half was 13 carries/54 yards and 2 catches/16 yards (4 and 12 yards, Q2); his second half was 2 carries/4 yards (the second was the fumble) and again no touches after the fumble.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 5 red-zone carries for 13 yards and no touchdown — 2nd-and-3 at the NYJ 3 (+2, ruled a touchdown and reversed to the NYJ 1) and 4th-and-1 at the NYJ 1 (0, ruled a touchdown and reversed; turnover on downs) are §6 flags #1 and #2; plus +4 from the NYJ 8 (Q1 2:28), +3 and +4 from the NYJ 19 and 16 (Q2). Swift was ruled to have scored twice on the same drive, and both were reversed.
Compared to Week 3 (20 carries/84 yards, 3 targets/2 catches/4 yards, 8.3% adjusted, 69% snaps, two carries inside the 5 on the Q4 drive that Case Keenum finished), a smaller rushing line (20 → 15 carries), a similar receiving role (3 → 2 targets), and the lost fumble — his ball-security note: a lost fumble at the CHI 28 this week, after the Week 2 fumble at the MIN 1 on a stuffed goal-line run.
Not great. But coach Ben Johnson said after Sunday’s 23-12 win against the Jets that Monangai suffered a thumb injury during the contest. So Swift’s time in the doghouse may not be too long. Makes him an interesting buy-target if his managers are overly concerned.
No. 3 RB Roschon Johnson carried 4 times for 16 yards and caught 1 of 1 target for 7 yards (a 2.9% official/2.6% adjusted share), all in the fourth quarter. Red-zone usage: 2 red-zone carries for +11 yards (NYJ 15 and NYJ 4, Q4) and 1 red-zone target (a 7-yard catch, 3rd-and-5 at the NYJ 19, Q4 2:00); no touchdown. Takeaway: a late-game change-of-pace back; the 11-yard run to the NYJ 4 on 2nd-and-7 is his best touch, and the 0-yard carry at the 4 is the stop.
The target tree re-sorted: Colston Loveland led it (9 official/10 true targets, 26.3% adjusted, up from 11.1%), Rome Odunze and Luther Burden tied at 18.4%, and Kalif Raymond, Week 3’s touchdown scorer, fell to 2 official/4 true targets (10.5%) — all four of his true targets coming as two catches and two nullified interceptions.
Loveland caught 6 of 9 official targets (10 true) for 57 yards (a 26.5% official/26.3% adjusted target share, the team lead).
Snap share: 92% (79% in Week 3). Ran a route on 71% of dropbacks.
His first half was 7 targets/4 catches/27 yards (8 targets true, counting the nullified interception at Q1 4:34), including an interception on a deep-middle throw intended for him (Q2 11:52); his second half was 2 targets/2 catches/30 yards (12 and 18 yards, both on 3rd-and-1/3rd-and-5).
Red-zone usage: 3 red-zone targets for 2 catches and 24 yards — a 12-yard catch from the NYJ 15 to the NYJ 3 (Q1), an incompletion on 3rd-and-1 from the NYJ 1, and a 12-yard catch on 3rd-and-1 from the NYJ 20 (Q3).
Compared to Week 3 (4 targets/4 catches/31 yards, 11.1% adjusted, a reversed goal-line touchdown, 79% snaps), the share rose 15.2 points and the targets from 4 to 9 (10 true), and he was again the receiver on a goal-line pass that did not score.
Loveland led the passing game in a run-heavy script, with 3 red-zone targets, one official interception, and one nullified interception on throws intended for him; the volume is the signal. Buy Stock Up. He’s improved every week for a month straight with heavy involvement around the red zone (3 in Week 4).
Rome Odunze caught 6 of 7 targets for 94 yards (a 20.6% official/18.4% adjusted target share). His first half was 4 targets/4 catches/65 yards (21, 2, 5 and a 37-yard catch on 3rd-and-5 at the CHI 47, Q2:27 — the longest play of the game); his second half was 3 targets/2 catches/29 yards (a 20-yard catch from the CHI 4 and a 9-yarder) and a deep-left incompletion. No red-zone targets. Compared to Week 3 (6 targets/3 catches/44 yards, 16.7% adjusted, 85% snaps), the share rose 1.7 points, the catches doubled, and the yards more than doubled.
Per Next Gen Stats…Odunze led the team in routes (31), catches (6, tied with Colston Loveland) and yards (94) for his best outing of the young season. He doesn’t lead the team in targets or catches this season, but does lead in yards (233) and air yards share (35.9%).
Luther Burden caught 4 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 63 yards and carried once for 11 yards (a 17.6% official/18.4% adjusted target share.
His first half was 3 targets/3 catches/49 yards (7, 20 and 22; 4 targets true, counting the illegal-contact-nullified incompletion at Q2:43); his second half 3 targets/1 catch/14 yards (two Q4 incompletions) plus the 11-yard end-around. No red-zone targets. Compared to Week 3 (11 targets/7 catches/61 yards and a touchdown, 30.6% adjusted), the share fell 12.2 points and the targets from 11 to 6 (7 true) with no touchdown. Burden saw a sizeable drop from the WR1 volume of Week 3; he was a third in the pecking order this week with Tyson Bagent under center in this matchup.
Kalif Raymond caught both of his 2 official targets for 6 yards (1 and 5 yards; a 5.9% official/10.5% adjusted target share, 4 true targets) and returned two punts for 16 yards. He did not start.
Snap share: 51% (75% in Week 3). It was Raymond’s lowest snap share of the season (ran a route on just 55% of the dropbacks.
Both of his Q4 deep targets were intercepted and the interceptions nullified by New York penalties (offside, Q4 8:21; holding, Q4 6:08) — zero-value true targets. Red-zone usage: 1 red-zone target (1-yard catch, 1st-and-10 at the NYJ 20, Q2). Compared to Week 3 (7 official/8 true targets, 6 catches/90 yards and a 41-yard touchdown, 22.2% adjusted), the share fell 11.7 points, and production dropped from 90 yards and a score to 6 yards.
Cole Kmet caught both of his 2 targets for 13 yards (7 and 6; a 5.9% official/5.3% adjusted share). Snap share: pending (60% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (1 target/0 catches, 2.8% adjusted), a small rise.
Sam Roush caught his only target for 8 yards on a replay-assisted spot (2.9%/2.6%; Week 3: 1 target/1 catch/16 yards, 22% snaps).
Next four matchups (CHI): Wk5 at GB (Road) | Wk6 at ATL (Road) | Wk7 vs NE (Home, TNF) | Wk8 at SEA (Monday 11/2, 8:15 PM).
Tennessee Titans
Hold Carnell Tate
Cam Ward went 20-of-31 for 222 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception (83.0 rating), was sacked once for 10 yards, and rushed 4 times for 27 yards (a 22-yard scramble on the last drive; a fumble out of bounds credited at 0). His first half (10-of-16, 135 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, 63.3) included the Q1 interception on a short-middle throw intended for Tony Pollard; his second half (10-of-15, 87 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) ended with the 33-yard completion to Carnell Tate on 4th-and-11 and the 3-yard touchdown to Wan’Dale Robinson, plus the two-point pass to Gunnar Helm. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries (+1, +4 at the BLT 20 and 19, Q3); a Q4 touchdown pass from the BLT 3; and the two-point conversion. Compared to Week 3 (23-of-36, 181 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 74.0 rating, 1 carry/2 yards), more yards on fewer attempts, a higher rating, and a bigger rushing role. Ward posted a decent floor with a bigger scramble role (27 yards) and a concentrated target tree behind Tate; but the first-quarter pick on Ward’s second pass attempt set the tone of the Titans’ overall Week 4 performance. A lot to be desired.
Tennessee never led and lost by six after a turnover on downs at the BLT 2 (Q2) and a lost Tate fumble (Q2 :46) that ended two first-half possessions in Baltimore territory.
Tony Pollard carried 16 times for 48 yards (3.0 YPC) and a 3-yard touchdown and caught 2 of 4 targets for 2 yards (a 12.9% official/11.8% adjusted target share).
Snap share: 53% (53% in Week 3).
His first half was 13 carries/38 yards and the touchdown plus 2 incompletions (including the Q1 interception target); his second half was 3 carries/10 yards and 2 catches/2 yards.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 9 red-zone carries for 23 yards and 1 touchdown (+2, +2, +3, +3 TD in Q1; +7, +3, +2, +1, 0 in Q2); four carries from the BLT 5 or closer (+3 TD, +2, +1, 0); the 4th-and-2 direct snap at the BLT 2 was stopped for no gain; no red-zone carry in the second half; no red-zone targets.
The ground game stalled — 3.3 YPC and no Pollard carry after the third quarter — and Ward ran four times for 27 yards, including a 22-yard scramble on the last drive.
Compared to Pollard’s Week 3 (17 carries/74 yards, 4 targets/4 catches/22 yards, 53% snaps), a similar workload at a worse rate and a worse receiving line.
He remains the goal-line back (four straight carries from the 8), but a first-half script back whose workload vanished once Tennessee trailed by three scores; the 0-yard 4th-and-2 carry is the stat to remember. Unfortunately, the problem won’t go away.
Tennessee finished 2-for-4 in the red zone with a four-snap Pollard goal-line sequence that ended at the BLT 2.
Tyjae Spears carried twice for 7 yards and caught 1 of 1 target for -1 yard (a 3.2% official/2.9% adjusted share), all in the first half.
Snap share: 36% (47% in Week 3). Red-zone usage: 1 carry for +8 yards (BLT 18, Q1). Compared to Week 3 (3 carries/5 yards, 1 true target, 47% snaps), the same minimal role. Entered the game with a questionable tag.
Nick Singleton carried 3 times for 2 yards (1 first-half carry, 2 second-half), including a 0-yard red-zone carry at the BLT 20 (Q3 9:01).
Rookie Carnell Tate caught 9 of 12 official targets (13 true) for 145 yards (a 38.7% official/38.2% adjusted target share, the team lead) up from 23.7% in Week 3 — despite not starting.
Snap share: 84% (88% in Week 3).
His first half was 6 targets/5 catches/74 yards (7/5/74 true, counting the DPI-erased deep incompletion at Q2 2:20) and a lost fumble on a 33-yard catch (Q2:46) plus a recovered fumble (Q2 1:52); his second half 6 targets/4 catches/71 yards, including the 33-yard catch on 4th-and-11 (Q4 1:51).
No red-zone targets (his deep catch ended at the Baltimore 3, and Robinson scored). Compared to Week 3 (9 targets/6 catches/58 yards, 23.7% adjusted), the share rose 14.5 points and the yardage 2.5x.
The clear WR1 by volume and yards; the lost fumble before halftime is a ball-security note. Top-5 real-life talent translating to the field.
Per Next Gen Stats, Tate’s season-long mark in air yards share of 49.8% ranks third in the league. His season-long target share ranks 7th (27%).
Robinson caught 3 of 5 targets for 19 yards and a 3-yard touchdown (a 16.1% official/14.7% adjusted share) and added a 1-yard end-around carry.
Snap share: 67% (63% in Week 3).
His first half was 1 target/1 catch/12 yards; his second half was 4 targets/2 catches/7 yards and the touchdown (two incompletions, a 4-yard catch, and the touchdown).
Red-zone usage: 1 red-zone target (the 3-yard touchdown, BLT 3). Compared to Week 3 (12 true targets/8 catches/85 yards, 31.6% adjusted), the target share halved and the yardage dropped by more than three-quarters, though he scored in both games.
Gunnar Helm (TE) caught 1 of 1 for 5 yards (3.2%/2.9%) and the two-point conversion, down from 4 targets in Week 3 (10.5% adjusted).
Amani Hooker (S) was injured in Q4 (11:34), but returned (9:35).
Next four matchups (TEN): Wk5 vs HST | Wk6 at IND | Wk7 vs CLV | Wk8 at CIN (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Baltimore Ravens
Buy Zay Flowers
Baltimore led 24-7 at the half, scored nothing after it, and held on when Tennessee’s late touchdown and two-point conversion came up one onside kick short. Baltimore out-gained Tennessee 384 to 297 in net yards (6.3 to 5.1 yards per play), ran 61 plays to 58 and held the ball 33:08 to 26:52, including 11:17 of the fourth quarter. Tennessee gave the ball away twice (a first-quarter interception and a lost second-quarter fumble); Baltimore gave it away zero times. Baltimore was flagged 13 times for 131 yards; Tennessee 5 for 32 — six of Tennessee’s 21 first downs came by penalty.
Baltimore was 3-for-3 in the red zone (1-for-1 goal-to-go) and 1-for-1 on fourth down; Tennessee was 2-for-4 in the red zone (2-for-3 goal-to-go) and 1-for-2 on fourth down, and both teams were 2-for-10 on third down.
Lamar Jackson went 15-of-20 for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (144.2 rating), was sacked twice for 13 yards, and rushed twice for 20 yards (3 and a credited 17-yard scramble that the play-by-play shows as 29), all in the first half; he left on the Q2:12 sack. He went 15-for-20 in the first half, with a 52-yard completion to Flowers, a 28-yard completion to Bateman, and a 25-yard completion to Hibner. A perfect-passer first half that ended in an injury; the second-half snaps all went to back up Tyler Huntley.
Jackson (ankle) was seen wearing a walking boot on his left foot after Sunday’s 24-18 victory against the Titans. Jackson will undergo an MRI on Monday and is considered day-to-day after exiting Sunday’s 24-18 win over the Titans, but the Ravens are hopeful he’ll be ready to play Week 5 versus the Falcons
Tyler Huntley went 8-of-9 for 63 yards (95.8 rating) with no touchdown, no sack, and four carries for 16 yards (two scrambles of 9 and 9, two kneel-downs for -1 each). His completions went to Hill (7, 15), Flowers (5, -6), Andrews (6), Hibner (9), Henry (9) and Bateman (18); his one incompletion was a 3rd-and-11 throw to Flowers.
Baltimore scored on all three first-half trips inside the 20 (3-for-3) and kicked a 64-yard field goal to lead 24-7, then did not score in the second half with Jackson out after the Q2 sack injury.
Derrick Henry carried 23 times for 73 yards (3.2 YPC; true 24/80) and a 5-yard touchdown and caught 2 of 2 targets for 6 yards (a 6.9% official/adjusted target share
His first half was 9 carries/39 yards and the touchdown plus 1 catch for -3; his second half 14 carries/34 yards (15/41 true, counting the Devontez Walker-holding-erased 7-yard conversion) and 1 catch for 9. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 3 red-zone carries for +10 yards and 1 touchdown (+3 at the TEN 8; +5 TD on 4th-and-1 at the TEN 5; +2 at the TEN 5); no red-zone carry in the second half; no red-zone targets.
Zay Flowers caught 8 of 10 targets for 118 yards and a 19-yard touchdown (a 34.5% official/adjusted share, the team lead).
His first half was 7 targets/6 catches/119 yards (23, 6, 8, 19 TD, 52, 11) and the incompletion on 1st-and-10 at the BLT 12 (Q2 1:33); his second half was 3 targets/2 catches/-1 yards with Tyler Huntley (5, -6) and an incompletion. He was injured on a Q4 play (7:27) and returned (5:10). Red-zone usage: 2 red-zone targets for 2 catches, 25 yards and 1 touchdown (6 yards to the TEN 8 on 2nd-and-10 at the TEN 14; the 19-yard touchdown). Compared to Week 3 (6 official/7 true targets, 5 catches/84 yards, a 20-yard end-around, 28.0% adjusted, 33% snaps, off the bench), more volume and a touchdown, and he started.
Zay Flowers was the first-half engine (119 yards on 7 targets), and his second-half line (-1 yard) shows the slight Lamar Jackson-to-Tyler Huntley drop; his value tracks the quarterback. But the process.
Anytime an elite WR loses his QB, you buy. More often than not, it works out.
And Flowers is just operating on a whole other level. His absurd 6.3 yards per route leads all players with at least 50 routes this season. In his 3 healthy games played this season, Flowers has averaged over 117 receiving yards per game.
Mark Andrews (TE) caught 5 of 6 targets for 27 yards and a 3-yard touchdown (a 20.7% official/adjusted share).
His first half was 5 targets/4 catches/21 yards and the touchdown (7, 6, a Q1 incompletion at the TEN 14, the touchdown and a 5-yard catch); his second half 1 target/1 catch/6 yards. Red-zone usage: 2 red-zone targets (an incompletion at the TEN 14, Q1; the 3-yard touchdown, Q2).
Rashod Bateman caught 2 of 2 targets for 46 yards (a 6.9% official/adjusted share; 28 and 18 yards). Snap share: 47% (88% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/2 catches/37 yards, 12.0% adjusted, 88% snaps and a starter), a lower share and a lower role.
Matthew Hibner (TE) caught 2 of 2 for 34 yards (6.9%/6.9%; 25 and 9).
Durham Smythe (TE) — injured Q3 (5:33), out (Q3 3:34); he had no targets. Andrew Vorhees (RG) was ruled out (Q3 12:14). Marlon Humphrey (CB) also got knocked out.
Vorhees and Humphrey did not return.
There might be some cause for concern given the interior of the Ravens OL…as injuries continue to pile up. However, whatever efficiency fall-off with Henry might be mitigated by more volume… given that last season he averaged 22 carries per game with Huntley at QB.
Next four matchups (BLT): Wk5 at ATL | Wk6 at CLV | Wk7 vs CIN | Wk8 at BUF (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Arizona Cardinals
Hold Jeremiyah Love & Add Tyler Allgeier
Arizona led 14-3 after the first quarter and 14-12 midway through the second, trailed 17-19 at the half, and the game ended on a 98-yard interception-return touchdown with zero seconds on the clock.
They lost 36-24 — 3 interceptions (one a game-ending 98-yard pick-six), 4-for-12 on third down, 2-for-3 in the red zone (1-for-2 on goal-to-go), and 2 sacks (-8 and -11) that helped stall two drives.
A classic Jacoby Brissett-Jameis Winston classic.
Brissett went 21-of-35 for 166 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions (55.2 rating), was sacked twice for 19 yards, and rushed 4 times for 18 yards (a 1H 1/1; 2H 3/17). His first half (10-of-15, 76 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 61.4) included an interception on a deep right shot to Marvin Harrison and the second interception on 3rd-and-2; his second half (11-of-20, 90 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) included the Elijah Higgins touchdown and the pick-six.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry (+2, a 3rd-and-1 run up the middle at the NYG 17, Q3 10:09); touchdown passes of 12 yards (Harrison, Q1) and 2 yards (Higgins, Q3); on the final drive he threw four straight incomplete or intercepted passes from the NYG 4 (last red-zone throw went the other way for 6). Compared to Week 3 (38-of-52, 280 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 4 carries/4 yards plus a rushing TD, 98.2 rating), far less volume (35 attempts vs. 52), no rushing touchdown, and three interceptions after none.
Tyler Allgeier returned to a real rushing role (8 carries, a touchdown) after Week 3’s two carries, but Love still led the second half.
Arizona called four straight passes from the NYG 4 on the final drive (incompletion, incompletion, incompletion, interception) with no run on any snap.
Jeremiyah Love carried 14 times for 63 yards (4.5 YPC; true 15/69) and caught 1 of 1 target for -8 yards (a 2.9% official/2.7% adjusted target share).
Snap share: 45% (64% in Week 3).
His first half was 9 carries/51 yards (including a 16-yard run and a 9-yard run) and the -8 catch; his second half was 5 carries/12 yards (6/18 true, counting the erased holding run), no targets. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry for +2 yards (NYG 14, Q1 11:53); no red-zone targets; no goal-line carries.
Compared to Week 3 (21 carries/90 yards, true 23/94, 5 targets/5 catches/19 yards/1 receiving TD, 64% snaps), carries fell by a third, the receiving role nearly disappeared, and the touchdown went to Tyler Allgeier. Love still led the backfield in carries, but it was a smaller week in every category; the Week 3 bell-cow role shrank dramatically.
The carries reverted to a Love-led second half (Love 5 for 12 and Allgeier 3 for 2 as Arizona trailed). WTF ARIZONA.
This bizarre usage, followed by Love’s post-game comments, is strange to say the least.
“Love said he told Cardinals coaches that Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight were in better shape to play than he was in Week 4 against the Giants. Love engaged in a long, candid conversation with Cardinals beat reporters after the game today, saying his snaps are being managed because he currently is “not able to go out there and do spectacular plays every single time. Love said his body is sometimes just “tired,” and that he would “probably just hinder the team” if he took on more work in his current state. He rhetorically asked, “Why not put somebody else out there that’s playing better?”” according to NBC Sports.
Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love said he wasn't injured when asked about his right ankle getting worked on by a trainer in the their quarter. He said it was all about maintenance and management.
He said he's frustrated with his snaps being managed because it's limiting his ability…
— Josh Weinfuss (@joshweinfuss) October 4, 2026
The full context behind the quote is obviously less severe, because it’s basically saying Love wants to be the best, but knows how important managing his workload is. Comes off as very team-first, but under the radar, it suggests maybe he is not completely over the ankle injury he suffered during the preseason (was getting his ankle looked at).
Allgeier carried 8 times for 42 yards and a 22-yard touchdown (5.3 YPC) and caught 2 of 2 targets for 7 yards (a 5.7% official/5.4% adjusted target share).
His first half was 5 carries/40 yards and the touchdown plus 1 catch for 2 yards; his second half was 3 carries/2 yards (including the no-gain carry from the NYG 2) and 1 catch for 5 yards. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for +1 yard (+1 at the NYG 15; 0 at the NYG 2, Q3 7:59); the 22-yard touchdown began outside the red zone; no red-zone targets. Compared to Week 3 (2 carries/-1 yard, 4 targets/4 catches/10 yards, 36% snaps, zero second-half touches), carries quadrupled and he scored, but his second-half role stayed small and his targets halved.
The touchdown came on one explosive run rather than a goal-line role — he was stopped for no gain at the 2 on his one goal-to-go carry.
So after the Week 3 blow-up role, this was not an ideal outcome for Love. I’m not ready to panic sell quite yet, so I’ll list Love as a hold for now. We know backfield roles can fluctuate based on several factors like injuries, game script, hot hand, etc. Also don’t love trading for a rookie RB on a team that just lost its best offensive linemen to season-ending biceps injuries.
At the end of the day, Love still out-touched Allgeier (15 vs 10) and had more yards. TA will remain a thorn in Love’s upside (especially in the red zone) …but at least Week 3 proved the team can lean on him more as a workhorse.
Allgeier should be rostered in most formats. The team likes to use him on 3rd downs (hence his boost in receiving; the former Falcon has played 58% of the snaps on third downs this season).
Michael Wilson caught 7 of 13 official targets for 95 yards (a 37.1% official/35.1% adjusted target share, the team lead.
His first half was 5 targets/3 catches/57 yards (13, 20 and 24 yards); his second half was 8 targets/4 catches/38 yards (the Q3 10-yarder to the NYG 4, Q4 catches of 11, 9 and 8 yards) and four incompletions or interceptions.
Red-zone usage: 4 red-zone targets for 1 catch and 10 yards — the 10-yard catch to the NYG 4 (Q3 8:51), then two incompletions and the game-ending interception, all from the NYG 4 on the final drive; no red-zone touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (17 official/18 true targets, 11 catches/89 yards/1 TD, 33.3% adjusted), a similar share on fewer targets and no touchdown; he was the intended receiver on two of Brissett’s three interceptions.
Continues to be a target-share anchor (35.1%) with low efficiency (7-of-13, 7.3 yards per target) and no scores.
The scores will come next week: Lions.
Trey McBride caught 7 of 12 targets for 31 yards (a 34.3% official/32.4% adjusted share). Snap share: pending (91% in Week 3). His first half was 5 targets/4 catches/13 yards; his second half 7 targets/3 catches/18 yards. Red-zone usage: 1 red-zone target (an incompletion at the NYG 4, Q4:14). Compared to Week 3 (11 official/12 true targets, 9 catches/75 yards, 22.2% adjusted), the same target count but a sharply higher share (32.4%) – a third of the yardage. A very high-volume, very low-efficiency day (2.6 yards per target) in a game where Arizona’s passing game averaged a meager 4.0 net yards per pass play.
Marvin Harrison caught 1 of 4 official targets (6 true) for 12 yards and a 12-yard touchdown (a 11.4% official/16.2% adjusted share). Bumping that trade value.
His first half was 3 targets/1 catch/12 yards and the touchdown (plus the interception target); his second half 1 official target (3 true) and no catches. Red-zone usage: 3 true red-zone targets (the 12-yard touchdown; an incompletion at the NYG 4, Q3 8:06; the erased incompletion at the NYG 4, Q3 8:04), plus the 3rd-and-6 DPI-erased deep target at the NYG 22, one yard outside the red zone. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/3 catches/40 yards, 9.3% adjusted), he had a similar target count with fewer catches, a touchdown, and a higher share. Two of his true targets were drawn flags worth a combined 20 yards.
Rumor is that the Colts are one of the teams calling about trading for MHJ.
The passing offense concentrated even further than Week 3: Wilson (35.1% adjusted) and McBride (32.4% adjusted) took 25 of Arizona’s 37 true targets, while Harrison’s share rose to 16.2% (six true targets, one catch, one touchdown) and Kendrick Bourne had none.
Elijah Higgins caught 2 of 2 targets for 19 yards and a 2-yard touchdown (a 5.7% official/5.4% adjusted share), both in the second half (a 17-yard catch on the drive that ended the third quarter and the red-zone touchdown)
Cardinals coach Mike LaFleur said that OT Paris Johnson is dealing with a biceps injury. Later confirmed to be a season-ending biceps injury.
Safety Andrew Wingard (knee) was ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s game against the Giants.
Next four matchups (ARZ): Wk5 vs DET | Wk6 at LAR | Wk7 vs DEN | Wk8 at DAL (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
New York Giants
Buy Malik Nabers & Add Jameis Winston
New York out-gained Arizona 319 to 270 in net yards on fewer plays (61 to 63) and held the ball 32:13 to 27:47. Each side gave the ball away three times, but the Giants turned Jacoby Brissett’s three interceptions into 13 points (Nabers’ touchdown after the second, the pick-six on the third), while Arizona turned two of New York’s three giveaways into 10 points.
New York won with big plays and field position, not efficiency: 3.1 yards per carry, 7.0 yards per pass play, 7-for-15 on third down, 3-for-3 on field goals, 2-for-3 in the red zone — and its three interceptions of Brissett produced 13 points.
Isaiah Likely (the Week 3 “clear faller”) became the offense: 12 targets, a 41.4% official/38.7% adjusted share, 7 catches, 66 yards — the highest target share of any player in this game. Usage continues to be borderline elite: ran a route on 88% of the dropbacks.
Malik Nabers (7 official/8 true targets, 6 catches, 112 yards and a 25-yard touchdown) led the deep passing game (39, 28 and 25-yard plays) after a Q1 injury scare. A 24.1% official/25.8% adjusted share; true 8 targets/7 catches/120 yards.
Snap share: 76% (78% in Week 3). Ran a route on 91% of the dropbacks.
His first half was 5 targets/5 catches/84 yards and the touchdown (39, 9, 5, 25 and 6 yards); his second half was 2 official targets/1 catch/28 yards (3/2/36 true, counting the offside-erased 8-yard catch). He was injured on the 39-yard play and returned the same drive. Compared to Week 3 (6 targets/5 catches/26 yards, 27.3% adjusted), the share held and the yardage more than quadrupled. 3 explosive plays (39, 28, 25) from six official catches.
Per Next Gen Stats, Nabers was clearly the top downfield option with a team-high 35.9% air yards share. Even if the Giants continue to balance the run and the pass (53.7% called pass rate), Winston’s propensity to let it fly (9.3 air yards per attempt) inspires confidence in Nabers to produce.
Specifically, the team moved Nabers in the slot where he feasted. Nabers caught all three of his targets aligned in the slot for 73 yards and a touchdown, the most yards by Nabers in the slot in a game in his career (NGS).
The Giants opened in 13-personnel (three tight ends), and no running back had a target after halftime.
Jameis Winston went 18-of-29 for 250 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions (95.5 rating), was sacked four times for 18 yards, and did not log a single carry. His first half (11-of-18, 119 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) included a 39-yard completion on 3rd-and-12, and two TDs; his second half (7-of-11, 131 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) included the 40-yard Fields catch on 3rd-and-20, the 34-yard Likely catch and the 11-yard Johnson touchdown.
Compared to Week 3 (14-of-22, 118 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 77.5 rating, 2 carries/14 yards), nearly double the yardage, three touchdown passes and two interceptions, and no rushing. A boom-and-bust game, with both interceptions leading to Arizona points.
The Giants QB is on the streaming radar for the next two games versus the Commanders/Saints.
Cam Skattebo carried 18 times for 58 yards (3.2 YPC; true 19/60) and caught 1 of 1 target for 8 yards (a 3.4% official/3.2% adjusted target share).
Snap share: 64% (77% in Week 3).
His first half was 9 carries/29 yards and the 8-yard catch; his second half was 9 carries/29 yards (10/31 true, counting the holding run), eight of them in Q4. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for -1 net yard (-2 at the ARZ 19, Q1 7:23; +1 at the ARZ 18, Q2 5:56); no red-zone targets; no red-zone carry in the second half (Najee Harris took all three).
Compared to Week 3 (20 carries/60 yards, true 23/77, 4 targets/3 catches/40 yards, 77% snaps), the carries and yards were nearly identical, but the true carries fell, and the receiving role dropped from four targets to one. Harris took the third-quarter red-zone carries and the two-point attempt. But that might not last.
Harris carried 9 times for 30 yards (3.3 YPC) and had no targets.
Snap share: 18% (22% in Week 3).
His first half was 4 carries/19 yards (including a 9-yard run on the first snap after the Tyler Allgeier touchdown, Q1 2:57) and his second half 5 carries/11 yards, including a fumble (lost, Q4 11:14).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 3 red-zone carries for +5 yards (+3, +2, 0 at the ARZ 18, 15 and 11, Q3) and the successful two-point run (left end, Q3 1:44); no red-zone target. Compared to Week 3 (9 carries/52 yards, true 11/51, no target, 22% snaps), the same number of carries, a lower per-carry average (3.3 vs. 5.8), and a lost fumble. The clear No. 2 Giants back with a real goal-line/two-point role in this game — but the fumble and the 0-yard final red-zone carry before the touchdown pass are the Week 5 caveats for what to expect from Harris moving forward.
Skattebo got right back to a heavy workload after Harris fumbled (zero touches after the turnover).
Isaiah Likely caught 7 of 12 targets for 66 yards (a 41.4% official/38.7% adjusted share, the team lead). Snap share: 66% (84% in Week 3).
His first half was 6 targets/4 catches/15 yards (the replay-corrected 7-yard catch is in this line); his second half 6 targets/3 catches/51 yards, including the 34-yarder, the 15-yarder, and the interception target. Red-zone usage: 2 red-zone catches (5 and 2 yards). Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/2 catches/13 yards, 22.7% adjusted), the share rose 16 points, and the yards per target rose from 2.6 to 5.5.
Week 3 decline reversed — he led New York in targets in both halves (6 and 6).
Malachi Fields caught 2 of 3 targets for 52 yards and a 12-yard touchdown (a 10.3% official/9.7% adjusted share)
Safety Jason Pinnock listed as Questionable (Q3 14:39), later ruled Out (Q3 3:36).
Next four matchups (NYG): Wk5 at WAS | Wk6 vs NO | Wk7 at HOU | Wk8 BYE.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Bhayshul Tuten & Parker Washington
Trevor Lawrence went 18-of-23 for 227 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions (122.3 rating), was sacked 4 times for 15 yards, and rushed 3 times for 0 yards (a +2 sneak and two kneel-downs; a +11 scramble was erased). His first half (9-of-12, 136 yards, 1 TD, 139.6 rating) was excellent; his second half (9-of-11, 91 yards, 3 sacks) was quieter. Compared to Week 3 (19-of-29, 182 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT), that was 45 more yards on 6 fewer attempts, two fewer touchdowns, and no interception.
Bhayshul Tuten ran for 44 yards for a touchdown, but holding nullified it. A second Tuten touchdown — a 3-yard run on 1st-and-3 — was nullified by holding. At halftime, Jacksonville led 13-3 despite two nullified touchdowns. What is pain.
Tuten carried 17 times for 73 yards (4.3 YPC) and caught 2 of 2 official targets (3 true) for 18 yards (an 8.7% official/11.5% adjusted target share).
But again, the true line: 18 carries/115 yards once the 44-yard and 3-yard touchdown runs erased by holding are counted.
Snap share: 59% (48% in Week 3).
His first half was 9 carries/39 yards (10/81 true) and no official targets (1 true); his second half was 8 carries/34 yards and 2 catches/18 yards.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 3 official red-zone carries for +17 yards (+9, +2, +6) and a 3-yard touchdown run from the CIN 3 erased by holding — the strongest goal-to-go opportunity of the game; none in the second half. Compared to Week 3 (15 carries/73 yards/1 TD, 16/79 true, 2 targets/2 catches/17 yards, 48% snaps), the same role with two more true touchdown chances.
Tuten is a clear lead back whose two called-back touchdowns are positive-regression signals. Remains a buy.
Chris Rodriguez carried 6 times for 35 yards (5.8 YPC) and a 25-yard touchdown, with no targets, 3 carries/10 yards in the first half and 3 carries/25 yards (and the TD) in the second. Snap share: 25% (21% in Week 3).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry for +3 (CIN 13, Q2); his Q4 25-yard touchdown run began at the CIN 25. Compared to Week 3 (8 carries/37 yards/1 TD, 21% snaps), he had fewer carries, more yards per carry, and another touchdown. Two straight weeks with a score keep him on the radar.
Tight end Brenton Strange caught 7 of 8 official targets (9 true) for 95 yards (a 34.8% official/34.6% adjusted target share, the team lead), with 3 targets/3 catches/49 yards in the first half (4/3/49 true, counting the holding-erased incompletion) and 5 targets/4 catches/46 yards in the second.
Snap share: 87% (77% in Week 3). Ran a route on 78% of the dropbacks.
He fumbled once (out of bounds, not lost). Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/3 catches/32 yards, 16.7%), more than double the share and nearly triple the yards. Takeaway: Attack the Bengals defense with TEs.
Strange won’t do this every week, but he has a really great role conducive to fantasy production. Through four games, he is 9th in route participation among TEs.
Jakobi Meyers caught 3 of 4 targets for 33 yards (a 17.4% official/15.4% adjusted target share), with 3 targets/2 catches/26 yards in the first half (a 22-yard 2nd-and-7 catch) and 1 target/1 catch/7 yards in the second.
Snap share: 82% (81% in Week 3).
Compared to Week 3 (8 targets/7 catches/64 yards/1 TD, 26.7% adjusted), a sharp drop. Strange absorbed the volume, so Meyers’ Week 3 breakout didn’t repeat. But he wasn’t the only Jags WR to dud out…
Parker Washington caught 1 of 3 targets for 7 yards (a 13.0% official/11.5% adjusted share), with 1 first-half incompletion and 2 second-half targets — an incompletion (3rd-and-10, deep left) and the replay-reversed 3rd-and-10 catch (39 yards → 7 yards, out of bounds), which became a 4th-and-3 that ended in a delay-of-game and a punt.
Snap share: 80% (81% in Week 3). He actually led the Jags in routes run.
He also carried once for 3 yards and returned a punt (3 yards, fair catch). Compared to Week 3 (5 official/6 true targets, 3 catches, 40 yards, 1 TD), a massive collapse in production versus expectation.
But this is the first game since Week 11 of last season that he was held under 40 receiving yards in a game that he didn’t miss time due to an injury. Blip on the radar.
Per Next Gen Stats, Washington snapped a six-game streak of scoring 13 or more points dating back to last season.
Washington’s 26.0% STLL target share ranks 11th among WRs while his 39.2% air yards share ranks 12th among all players.
HC Liam Coen said post-game, “He will get plenty next week.”
Josh Cameron caught 2 of 2 official targets (3 true) for 42 yards (an 8.7% official/11.5% adjusted target share) — a 29-yard catch to the CIN 3 (Q2, 5:49) and a 13-yard catch (Q3, 5:47) — and returned two kickoffs for 45 yards.
Snap share: 36% (37% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/1 catch/12 yards/1 TD, 37% snaps), a bigger-play role.
Brian Thomas Jr. caught 2 of 2 targets for 17 yards and a 7-yard touchdown (8.7%/7.7%), both in the first half; he also had an incomplete 2-point target.
Snap share: 62% (37% in Week 3). Snaps jumped significantly from last week.
Compared to Week 3 (1 target/1 catch/8 yards), there was a small increase.
Nate Boerkircher (TE) caught 1 of 2 targets for 15 yards (8.7%/7.7%)—a 15-yard 2nd-and-8 catch—and committed offensive pass interference that erased a Tuten target.
Next four matchups (JAX): Wk5 vs PHI (London) | Wk6 vs HOU (London) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs IND (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Cincinnati Bengals
Add Dohnte Meyers & Mike Gesicki
This was the most penalty-distorted game of Week 4: three touchdowns were called back for offensive holding (two Jacksonville, one Cincinnati), 24 total penalties for 233 yards (JAX 13 for 125, CIN 11 for 108), and Ja’Marr Chase left in the second quarter and did not return (concussion).
Cincinnati dominated the box score — 437 net yards to 323, 26 first downs to 19, 71 plays to 54, 54 pass attempts for 428 yards — and lost, on two Joe Burrow interceptions (a 45-yard return that set up Jacksonville’s 13-3 touchdown drive, and a red-zone pick at the JAX 10 that Jacksonville answered with a punt), 2-for-4 red-zone and 1-for-2 goal-to-go efficiency, a 1-for-2 fourth-down line, 11 penalties for 108 yards and a 23-yard rushing total (1.5 YPC). Jacksonville ran 27 times for 111 yards (4.1 YPC) on only 23 pass attempts, went 3-for-3 on field goals and 1-for-2 in the red zone, and won despite two of the game’s three nullified touchdowns being its own.
Cincinnati left three touchdown chances unconverted (Samaje Perine’s 14-yard run nullified by holding, the red-zone interception at the JAX 10, and the 4th-and-10 at the JAX 21 that ended the game).
Joe Burrow finished 39-of-54 for 428 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions (86.0 rating), was sacked twice for 14 yards, and rushed 3 times for 6 yards and a 1-yard touchdown. His first half (16-of-20, 141 yards, 1 INT, 1 sack) was efficient but short of the sticks; his second half (23-of-34, 287 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) was the volume. A third interception by Travis Hunter was nullified by roughing the passer. Compared to Week 3 (28-of-37, 282 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 2 carries/13 yards), 146 more yards on 17 more attempts, two fewer passing touchdowns and two interceptions.
Chase Brown carried 9 times for 10 yards (1.1 YPC) and caught all 11 of his official targets (12 true) for 71 yards (a 20.4% official/20.7% adjusted target share).
Snap share: 79% (70% in Week 3).
His first half was 6 carries/8 yards and 5 targets/5 catches/38 yards; his second half was 3 carries/2 yards and 6 targets/6 catches/33 yards (7/7/35 true).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry for -2 yards (2nd-and-5 at the JAX 13, Q3, 9:31); no red-zone targets; the goal-line sneak went to Burrow.
Compared to Week 3 (13 carries/61 yards, 3 targets/1 catch/8 yards, 70% snaps), carries fell by 4 and targets rose by 8. A PPR-heavy receiving role (11-for-11) with no rushing or goal-line value in this game script.
Perine carried 3 times for 7 yards (2.3 YPC) and had 1 target (incomplete) (a 1.9% official/1.7% adjusted target share). True line: 3 carries/19 yards, counting the 14-yard touchdown run erased by holding.
Snap share: 36% (32% in Week 3).
His first half was 2 carries/5 yards (the official line credits a 2-yard partial on the erased run); his second half was 1 carry/2 yards and the incompletion.
Tee Higgins caught 11 of 16 official targets (17 true) for 157 yards (a 29.6% official/29.3% adjusted target share, the team lead).
His first half was 7 targets/5 catches/47 yards (8/5/47 true, counting the roughing-erased interception target); his second half was 9 targets/6 catches/110 yards, including a 26-yard catch to open Q4 (to the JAX 10) and a 19-yard catch (Q4, 5:47) on which he was injured and returned.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: the 26-yard catch to the JAX 10 (Q4, 15:00) and a first-half incompletion at the CIN 41; no red-zone target. Compared to Week 3 (7 targets/6 catches/90 yards/1 TD, ~16% share), more than double the volume. He’s a WR1 with Chase out, but Higgins sustained an adductor issue during Sunday’s 22-17 loss to the Jaguars, which could rule him out in Week 5.
Chase caught 3 of 3 targets for 27 yards (a 5.6% official/5.2% adjusted target share) in the first half: a 6-yard catch (Q1), a 17-yard catch (Q2, 13:36) and a 4-yard catch on which he was injured (Q2, 12:11), then ruled out (Q3). Cincinnati’s next game is Wk5 at MIA, with a Week 6 bye.
I’d imagine Cincy will err on the side of caution given they have an extra week to get healthy.
Dohnte Meyers caught 7 of 9 targets for 82 yards (a 16.7% official/15.5% adjusted share), 4 targets/3 catches/29 yards in the first half and 5/4/53 in the second (a 29-yard 3rd-and-16 catch, Q3, 1:58).
His 3rd-and-6 target at the JAX 45 (Q2, 2:00) was intercepted and returned 45 yards to the CIN 18; it counts as a target and set up Jacksonville’s 13-3 touchdown drive.
Snap share: 89% (56% in Week 3). Led the team with 54 routes run.
Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/3 catches/29 yards, 13.5%), more volume and yards. He also returned kickoffs (6/161 yards) and punts (2/9).
Meyers is a former CFL Grey Cup champion and signed with Cincy this offseason before making the final-53-man roster. He would be my immediate WR fill-in if I needed a warm WR body in Week 5. Just be wary: if Colbie Young returns from his Week 4 absence, that could really muck up Cincy’s WR room.
Mitchell Tinsley caught 3 of 7 targets for 49 yards (a 13.0% official/12.1% adjusted share) — 1 first-half target (an incompletion) and 6 second-half targets, including the intercepted red-zone pass at the JAX 10 (Q4, 14:16), an 11-yard catch, the 9-yard catch tackled at the JAX 1 (Q4, 3:51) and a 29-yard catch to open the final drive.
Mike Gesicki caught 3 of 5 targets for 40 yards and a 15-yard touchdown (a 9.3% official/8.6% adjusted share), all in the second half, with the TD on 3rd-and-7 from the JAX 15 (Q3, 8:48). Snap share: 62% (51% in Week 3).
Tinsley (7 targets, 3 catches, 49 yards) and Gesicki (5 targets, 3 catches, 40 yards and the touchdown) absorbed the second-half targets freed by Chase’s absence.
Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/37 yards/1 TD), a similar role for Gesicki.
But the floor is dramatically higher if Chase and/or Higgins is out. We have seen Gesicki put up big games when one of these guys missed time.
Without Tee Higgins (7 games) since 2024, Gesicki has averaged 10.5 fantasy PPG (+4 PPG).
His snaps/routes will increase for sure. And Burrow likes targeting him; Gesicki leads the NFL in EPA/target among TEs.
He’s been a fantasy TE1 (top-12) in 3 of his 4 games this season, and it’s a revenge game for him against the Dolphins.
Next four matchups (CIN): Wk5 at MIA | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at BAL | Wk8 vs TEN (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Dallas Cowboys
Hold George Pickens
Neither Houston nor Dallas turned the ball over (0 interceptions, 0 fumbles) — a pure offensive shootout decided by four lead changes in the second half, and Dallas won on a 12-yard CeeDee Lamb touchdown with 0:40 left.
The Cowboys won every box-score category that matters — 28 first downs to 16, 33:27 to 26:33 of possession, 73 plays to 52, 5-of-14 on third down, a perfect 4-for-4 in the red zone — while Houston had the better yards-per-play (7.6 vs 5.5) on 31 passes for 347 yards. The game was decided by a 17-catch, 189-yard performance by Lamb on 21 targets (46.7% of Dallas’ attempts) and by three Javonte Williams rushing touchdowns, two of them from the 1 and the 2.
Dak Prescott went 32-of-45 for 335 yards, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions (99.8 rating), was sacked 3 times for 11 yards and ran twice for 7 yards. His first half (12-of-20, 87 yards, 3 sacks, 70.2 rating) was poor; his second half (20-of-25, 248 yards, a 12-yard game-winning touchdown, no sacks) was the game. Compared to Week 3 (25-of-40, 276 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 4 carries/19 yards), he threw 5 more times for 59 more yards and the same touchdown count.
Javonte Williams carried 19 times for 62 yards (3.3 YPC) and 3 touchdowns and caught 5 of 5 targets for 21 yards (an 11.1% official/10.4% adjusted target share). True line: 20 carries/68 yards once an erased 6-yard run is counted.
Snap share: 74% (76% in Week 3).
His first half was 7 carries/36 yards (8/42 true) and 3 catches for 15 yards; his second half was 12 carries/26 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 2 catches for 6 yards. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 8 red-zone carries for +12 yards and 3 touchdowns — +8 TD, +6, -3, -3, +1 TD, 0, +1, +2 TD — with no red-zone targets. His 1st-and-1 carry from the HST 1 lost 3 yards. Compared to Week 3 (19 carries/98 yards/1 TD, a carry ruled down at 1, 3 targets/2 catches/-5 yards, 76% snaps), the same volume with two extra touchdowns and fewer yards. A touchdown-driven RB1 whose goal-line carries were both stuffed and scored; the role is secure. He took 8 red-zone carries, all in the second half.
Tyler Goodson carried 3 times for 12 yards (4.0 YPC) and had 1 target (incomplete), with 2 carries/9 yards in the first half and 1 carry/3 yards in the second; his one target (a first-half incompletion) is a 2.2% official/2.1% adjusted target share.
Lamb caught 17 of 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown (a 46.7% official/43.8% adjusted target share — no penalty-erased plays, so his official and true lines match). His first half was 8 targets/6 catches/49 yards; his second half was 13 targets/11 catches/140 yards and the go-ahead touchdown, including a 30-yard deep-left catch (Q3, 13:40) that set up Williams’ first score, catches of 21 and 17 yards on the Q4 8:47 drive, and five catches for 41 yards on the final 1:43 drive.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: a 17-yard catch from the HST 20 to the HST 3 (Q4, 12:42) and the 12-yard touchdown from the HST 12 (Q4, 0:43); an incomplete short-right target at the HST 4 (Q3, 7:48). He also lost 6 yards on a Q2 end-around (1 carry/-6). Compared to Week 3 (8 official/9 true targets, 7 catches, 112 yards, 0 TD, 21.4% adjusted), 12 more targets and 77 more yards.
The Cowboys WR1 by a wide margin; the target share is unlikely to repeat at this level, but it shows what Dallas does when game script and defense demand it.
Ryan Flournoy caught 4 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 37 yards (an 11.1% official/12.5% adjusted target share), with 1 target/1 catch/19 yards in the first half and 4 targets/3 catches/18 yards in the second (5 targets/3 catches/18 yards true, including a DPI-erased 4th-and-3 target at the HST 3).
Compared to Week 3 (8 official targets/2 catches/22 yards, 19.0%), fewer targets, more catches. He’s a steady third option, and the erased 4th-and-3 target is a real goal-line look.
Jake Ferguson caught 3 of 4 targets for 11 yards (an 8.9% official/8.3% adjusted target share), with 3 targets/2 catches/4 yards in the first half and 1 target/1 catch/7 yards in the second (a 4th-and-4 conversion at the DAL 32, Q4 1:34). He started in 11-personnel.
Snap share: 71% (69% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/3 catches/23 yards/1 TD, not a starter), a lower volume, no touchdown. A low-yardage safety valve; his biggest play was a 7-yard 4th-down catch. Just not a priority in this offense. TD-or-bust
A 53-yard George Pickens catch went to the HST 11, followed by a goal-line sequence that is the most important RB-usage story of the game — Williams +6, Williams -3 from the HST 5, a DPI-erased Pickens target (the penalty put the ball at the 1), Williams -3 on 1st-and-1 from the HST 1, an incomplete pass, a 1-yard Prescott scramble, a 4th-and-3 incomplete to Flournoy erased by defensive holding (the ball went back to the 1), and then a 1-yard Williams touchdown on the replay of the down (20-23, Q3, 6:54).
Pickens finished with just 2 of 3 official targets (4 true) for 75 yards (a 6.7% official/8.3% adjusted target share) — a 53-yard deep-middle catch (Q3, 10:43; to the HST 11) and a 22-yard deep-left catch (Q4:52; to the HST 12) that set up the winning score, plus a DPI-erased 3rd-and-7 target at the HST 8. His first half was 1 target/0 catches; his second half 2 targets/2 catches/75 yards (3/2/75 true).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: the DPI-erased target at the HST 8 (Q3, 8:37). Compared to Week 3 (11 official/12 true targets, 7 catches, 82 yards, 28.6% adjusted), his volume collapsed (-8 targets) alongside the biggest single-play yardage of his season.
Fantasy managers will take 2 splash plays on three targets, but we are hoping he can get back to his Week 3 target share (28.6%).
Pickens is too talented, and Dak Prescott is playing too well for him to stay this quiet for this long. He still has 75-plus yards in back-to-back games and currently 5th in most yards by a WR without a TD yet this season. Given that he was such a TD monster last season, I think this is just variance.
Dallas converted all four red-zone trips (4-for-4, 3-for-3 on goal-to-go) with a 399-yard offense, but went 5-of-14 on third down, missed two long field goals (62 blocked, 65 wide left) and gave up 3 sacks.
Next four matchups (DAL): Wk5 vs TB (Thursday Night Football) | Wk6 at GB | Wk7 at PHI (Monday Night) | Wk8 vs ARZ (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Houston Texans
Sell David Montgomery
C.J. Stroud went 21-of-31 for 347 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (126.7 rating), was sacked twice for 12 yards and ran twice for 12 yards (a third carry, +3, was erased by holding). His first half (9-of-14, 163 yards, 1 TD, 1 sack) was the better passing half; his second half (12-of-17, 184 yards, 1 TD, 1 sack for -11) added a 22-yard touchdown and an 87-yard go-ahead drive. Compared to Week 3 (16-of-27, 167 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 2 carries/10 yards), 180 more yards and an extra touchdown on 4 more attempts.
Per Next Gen Stats, His 126.7 passer rating was the sixth-highest of his career, while his 0.45 EPA per dropback was his fifth-highest ever. Stroud has quietly gone over 300 yards twice in four games this year, throwing five touchdowns with no interceptions; he hasn’t turned the ball over since Week 1.
David Montgomery carried 10 times for 24 yards (2.4 YPC) and was credited with 19 receiving yards on a lateral (no target, no reception).
Snap share: 58% (63% in Week 3).
His first half: 7 carries/15 yards; his second half: 3 carries/9 yards. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry for no gain (2nd-and-3 at the DAL 7, Q1, 10:50). Compared to Week 3 (11 carries/33 yards, 2 targets/2 catches/15 yards, 63% snaps), a lower yardage total and no targets.
Woody Marks carried 6 times for 22 yards (3.7 YPC) and 1 touchdown and had 1 target (incomplete) (a 3.2% official/3.1% adjusted target share).
True line 7 carries/30 yards once an 8-yard run erased by holding is counted.
Snap share: 42% (37% in Week 3).
His first half was 3 carries/15 yards; his second half 3 carries/7 yards (4/15 true) and the 6-yard touchdown.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone carry for 6 yards and a touchdown (1st-and-6 at the DAL 6, Q4, 2:26), and an erased 8-yard carry. Compared to Week 3 (5 carries/15 yards/1 TD, 1 target/1 catch/6 yards, 37% snaps, with the GL stop at the IND 1), a slight increase in carries and the same goal-line role.
The Texans can’t run the ball…and splitting the work between two guys dilutes all the fantasy value. The backfield was an afterthought versus Dallas: 19 carries (62 yards), no back caught a pass in the official line, and the only rushing touchdown was Marks’ 6-yard score (second week in a row). Montgomery ranks dead last in rushing success rate this season (23.4%). The second-fewest yards per carry (2.7), and lowest explosive run rate (2.1%) among qualified RBs this season.
And with his grip on the GL touches slipping away…there’s little value here.
Monty’s opps over last 3 games: 8, 13, 10 = 31
Marks: 14, 6, 7 = 27
At least they get the Titans’ defense in Week 5. But if they couldn’t run versus Dallas, I am not overly optimistic they become juggernauts on the ground. The Texans have the 5th-highest true pass rate this season.
Nico Collins caught 7 of 8 targets for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns (a 25.8% official/25.0% adjusted target share). Welcome back, Nico!
Per Next Gen Stats, Collins has led the team in target share (27.0% and 30.8%) and air yards share (43.6% and 37.0%) in each game he has played this season and has caught three of C.J. Stroud’s five touchdowns as the engine of a pass-heavy offense (67.3% called pass rate).
His first half was 4 targets/4 catches/75 yards and a 7-yard touchdown (a 45-yard catch on the game’s first snap, then a 3rd-and-3 touchdown); his second half was 4 targets/3 catches/43 yards and a 22-yard touchdown. Red-zone/goal-line usage: a 7-yard touchdown from the DAL 7 (red zone) and a 22-yard touchdown from the DAL 22 (just outside). Compared to Week 1 (10 official/12 true targets, 7 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD, 28.6% adjusted), nearly identical usage and efficiency. The unquestioned WR1; the full-health Week 1 role is back.
Xavier Hutchinson caught 3 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 46 yards (a 16.1% official/18.8% adjusted target share), with 3 targets/1 catch/10 yards in the first half and 2 targets/2 catches/36 yards in the second (a 26-yard catch on the 87-yard go-ahead drive; 3 targets/2 catches/36 yards true, counting the offside-erased deep shot at the end).
Snap share: 31% snaps (54% in Week 3).
Compared to Week 3 (6 official targets/3 catches/51 yards, 20.7%), slightly fewer official targets. Takeaway: WR2 by target share; the Collins return pushed his true share down only slightly (20.7% → 18.8%).
Jaylin Noel caught 3 of 3 targets for 85 yards (a 9.7% official/9.4% adjusted target share) — a 52-yard deep-left catch (Q1, 4:21) and 22 and 11-yard catches on the final two drives — plus 1 carry/4 yards, 4 kickoff returns for 106 yards (53 long) and 2 punt returns for 8 yards. Snap share: 60%! (26% in Week 3). The training wheels are OFF (matching season highs in routes and snaps from Week 2).
Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/2 catches/17 yards), a big yardage jump; a big-play, low-volume WR.
Kayshon Boutte caught 3 of 4 targets for 36 yards (12.9%/12.5%), 1 target in the first half and 3 in the second, including a challenged 21-yard catch (upheld).
Snap share: 61.5% (69% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/2 catches/21 yards), a small increase.
Dalton Schultz (TE) caught 2 of 2 targets for 9 yards (6.5%/6.3%) — a 7-yard first-quarter catch at the DAL 7 and the Q4 lateral play. Snap share: 63.5% (54% in Week 3). Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/30 yards), a smaller role in the same passing game with Collins back in the lineup. Only ran a route on 67% of dropbacks.
Next four matchups (HOU): Wk5 at TEN | Wk6 at JAX (London) | Wk7 vs NYG | Wk8 BYE.
Los Angeles Rams
Add Tyler Higbee
The Rams trailed from the second quarter until the final 1:10 and won with two long fourth-quarter touchdown drives — a 10-play, 98-yard drive that began at their own 2-yard line, and a 10-play, 79-yard drive that ended with 1:10 left — both finished by Kyren Williams runs. Los Angeles dominated the box score: 415 net yards to 172, 26 first downs to 12, 77 plays to 58, 32:00 to 28:00 in possession, and Philadelphia converted 0 of 12 third downs.
Matthew Stafford threw two first-half interceptions that set LA back out of the gate. And it was the only reason this game was close at all.
Stafford went 32-of-51 for 317 yards, 0 touchdowns and 2 interceptions (63.9 rating), was sacked once (-8) and rushed 3 times for 10 yards. His first half (12-of-21, 120 yards, 2 INT) was the problem; his second half (20-of-30, 197 yards) was clean and ended with the two long scoring drives. Compared to Week 3 (30-of-55, 390 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT), fewer yards, no touchdown passes, and the same 2 interceptions — the Rams’ touchdowns came on the ground this week.
Los Angeles’ only first-half scores were a 13-play, 58-yard, 6:30 drive to a 40-yard Mevis field goal (3-3) and a 9-play, 67-yard drive finished by Puka Nacua’s 2-yard touchdown run on 1st-and-2 from the PHI 2.
Kyren Williams was a true workhorse — 70 of 84 snaps (83%, up 12 points from 61 snaps, 71%, in Week 3), 16 official/19 true carries, 13 targets (10 catches) and both fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdowns at the goal line. His 29 official carries and targets (32 true) were 80.6% of the Rams’ 36 running-back carries and targets, in line with his 83% snap share.
Blake Corum was a distant #2 — 13 snaps (15%, down 14 points from 25 snaps, 29%, in Week 3) for 5 carries and 2 targets (7 touches, 19.4% of the backs’ 36), with nothing in the second half beyond two carries. Williams’ target total is a sharp jump from Week 3’s 7. Nacua’s Q2 touchdown run is the only goal-line carry that did not go to Williams.
Nacua caught 9 of 12 official targets (15 true, 10 true receptions) for 125 yards (149 true) and added a 2-yard rushing touchdown (a 23.5% official/27.8% adjusted target share; the team leads on an adjusted basis). He returned after being out in Weeks 2 and 3.
Snap share: 76 snaps (90%).
He drew 12 official (15 true) targets on those 76 snaps, second among Rams receivers in snaps behind Adams’ 80. His first half was 3 official targets/1 catch/28 yards plus the rushing TD (4 true targets with a zero-value Offside-erased shot) and an intercepted target; his second half was 9 official targets/8 catches/97 yards (11/9/121 true), 7 of those targets in the Q4.
Compared to Week 1 (9 official/11 true targets, 5 catches, 74 yards, 35.5% adjusted), more efficient and in the same top-of-the-tree role. He reasserted himself as the Rams’ WR1 by target share (adjusted 27.8%).
Davante Adams caught 4 of 9 targets for 32 yards (a 17.6% official/16.7% adjusted target share), 5 targets/3 catches/27 yards in the first half and 4 targets/1 catch/5 yards in the second. Snap share: 80 snaps (95%) — up from 71 (83%) in Week 3; he led all Rams skill players in snaps but ranked third in adjusted target share. Compared to Week 3 (13 official/14 true targets, 7 catches, 137 yards), a sharp drop, with Nacua back.
Nacua’s return cut Adams’ target share from 25.0% to 16.7% and his yards from 137 to 32.
Tyler Higbee caught 5 of 6 targets for 67 yards (an 11.8% official/11.1% adjusted target share), 1 target/1 catch/19 yards in the first half (a 19-yard Q2 catch to the PHI 2) and 5 targets/4 catches/48 yards in the second. Colby Parkinson and Terrance Ferguson’s absences opened up volume for Higbee (like in Week 3).
Snap share: 55 snaps (65%) — down from 61 (71%) in Week 3. His 6 targets on 55 snaps compare with Davis Allen’s 2 on 40. Compared to Week 3 (11 targets/8 catches/62 yards/1 TD, 19.6%), a slightly lower target count but a higher yards-per-catch (13.4 vs 7.8).
Treat him as the Rams’ clear receiving TE while the others remain sidelined, but temper target-volume expectations with Nacua back and healthy. Routes run were good at a healthy 79%.
Rookie TE Max Klare played 1 snap (1%) and has no recorded touch.
Next four matchups (LAR): Wk5 vs BUF | Wk6 vs ARZ | Wk7 at LV | Wk8 vs LAC (Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM).
Philadelphia Eagles
Add Will Shipley
Philadelphia stayed ahead in the first half thanks to turnovers and field position.
The fourth quarter opened with Philadelphia’s best drive of the game — an 11-play, 62-yard march (Bigsby 19, 7, 3; a 14-yard Hurts scramble; Shipley 9, 3, 4) — that died at the LA 2: Hurts’ 3rd-and-2 keeper was stuffed for no gain, and his 4th-and-2 pass to Darius Cooper was incomplete (Q4, 7:31).
Philadelphia’s offense finished with 172 net yards, a 3.0 yards-per-play average, 4 sacks allowed and a 0-for-12 third-down line — with Saquon Barkley out after two carries and DeVonta Smith/Lane Johnson inactive.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Eagles have 15 three-and-out drives this season, the most in the NFL. 11 of those have come in the 2nd half, 3 more than any other team.
Barkley will undergo further testing Monday, but the right hamstring injury he sustained in Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the Rams isn’t believed to be “overly serious.
Tank Bigsby also left the game in the 4th quarter with a lower-body injury. Announced on Monday that he would be placed on IR.
Barkley’s departure (2 carries, out in Q2) flipped the backfield to Bigsby (14 carries, 55 yards, 3.9 YPC; 15/74 true) and Shipley (6 carries, 23 yards, 3.8 YPC) — and the snap sheet shows the two split the snaps evenly, 29 each (48% each), with Barkley on 4 (7%); in Week 3 it was Barkley 36 snaps (72%), Shipley 13 (26%) and Bigsby 2 (4%) of 50 (Bigsby up 44 points, Shipley up 22). Equal snaps did not mean equal work: Bigsby took 14 of the 22 running-back carries (63.6%), and 15 of the 25 carries plus targets (60.0%), Shipley 6 (27.3%) and 7 (28.0%), Barkley 2 (9.1%) and 3 (12.0%). Neither back was a receiving factor (1 target each, 0 catches).
Barkley has been listed as week-to-week and is unlikely to play in Week 5.
Shipley might be the healthiest of these RBs in Week 6, and they might be forced to use him as a receiver. Also noteworthy, he saw red-zone work (3 red-zone carries from the 18, 9, and 6-yard lines), gaining positive yardage on all three attempts.
Just keep in mind the matchup is brutal at Jacksonville in London for Week 5. The Eagles also have Dameon Pierce, Carson Steele, and former Cowboys RB Jaydon Blue on their practice squad.
With DeVonta Smith inactive, the target tree opened for Darius Cooper (25.9% official/24.1% adjusted), Makai Lemon (22.2%/20.7%) and Dontayvion Wicks (18.5%/20.7%), while Zach Ertz led the tight ends in targets (4) on 13 snaps (21%) behind Johnny Mundt’s 49 snaps (80%, no targets), with Dallas Goedert inactive.
Cooper caught 3 of 7 targets for 33 yards and 2 touchdowns (25.9% official/24.1% adjusted target share), both in the first half (18 and 10 yards). His second half was 5 targets, 1 catch for 5 yards, including the 4th-and-2 incompletion at the LA 2. Snap share: 55 snaps (90%) — up from 5 (10%) in Week 3. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone touchdown catches (LA 18, LA 10) plus the failed 4th-and-2 target at the LA 2. Compared to Week 3 (5 snaps/10%), an 80-point snap-share increase with Smith inactive.
Lemon caught 3 of 6 targets for 27 yards (a 22.2% official/20.7% adjusted target share), 5 targets/3 catches/27 yards in the first half and 1 target/0 catches after. Snap share: 45 snaps (74%) — up from 35 (70%) in Week 3. Compared to Week 3 (4/3/29, 14.8%), more volume, same yardage. Woof. Third in routes behind Cooper/Wicks.
Wicks caught 3 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 18 yards (an 18.5% official/20.7% adjusted share), 1H 4/2/13 (5/2/13 true) and 2H 1/1/5. Snap share: 56 snaps (92%) — up from 44 (88%) in Week 3. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/2 catches/32 yards, 18.5%), a similar target count.
Ertz caught 2 of 4 official targets (5 true, 3 true receptions, 17 true yards — an illegal-formation-erased catch) for 13 yards (a 14.8% official/17.2% adjusted target share). Snap share: 13 snaps (21%) — down from 19 (38%) in Week 3.
Jalen Hurts’ 2 touchdowns were both first-half; his second half was 2-of-9 for 10 yards, 2 sacks, a strip-sack, a failed 4th-and-1 sneak and a failed 4th-and-2 pass at the LA 2.
Hurts finished 12-of-27 for 93 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions (78.2 rating), was sacked 4 times for 25 yards (a strip-sack he recovered) and rushed 5 times for 18 yards. 3 red-zone carries for +4 (+5, -1, 0), a 3rd-and-2 keeper at the LA 2 that went nowhere, and a failed 4th-and-2 pass from the LA 2.
CB Quinyon Mitchell also suffered a knee injury. Mitchell is scheduled to undergo testing on his knee Monday after he was forced out of Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the Rams.
Next four matchups (PHI): Wk5 at JAX (London) | Wk6 vs CAR | Wk7 vs DAL | Wk8 at WAS (Sunday Night, 11/1, 8:20 PM)
Green Bay Packers
Buy Packers & Add Jordan Love
A grinding, mistake-filled one-score game that Green Bay controlled for 55 minutes and nearly gave away in the last six.
Green Bay’s first-half scoring drive was a 16-play, 68-yard, 9:16 slog that began with a Jalon Daniels interception and ended with a Jordan Love-to-Matthew Golden 2-yard touchdown on 4th-and-2 (Q2, 12:54; 7-0). The drive’s goal-line sequence is the most important RB story of the game: after a 4th-and-1 direct snap to Tucker Kraft at the Tampa Bay 9 (+3) and a Chris Brooks 3-yard carry to the 3, Green Bay threw incomplete to Kraft (2nd-and-3), then threw incomplete to Golden on 3rd-and-3 — Tampa Bay’s Jacob Parrish was flagged for defensive pass interference (2 yards, enforced at the 3, No Play), giving Green Bay a 1st-and-goal from the Tampa Bay 1. The Packers then lost yardage on both carries: Brooks -2 yards from the 1 (1st-and-1) and MarShawn Lloyd -3 yards (2nd-and-3), pushing them back to 3rd-and-6; Love hit Lloyd for 4 to the 2, and Golden scored on 4th-and-2.
But the pivotal sequence took place in the fourth quarter.
Green Bay drove 74 yards on 9 plays to a 1st-and-goal at the Tampa Bay 3 (Love completions of 19, 18, 13 yards to Jonnu Smith, Christian Watson and Watson), with a lead and 9:13 left. Kaleb Johnson’s 1st-and-goal carry from the 3 gained nothing, and he fumbled at the goal line. Green Bay drove to the Tampa Bay 26 before Love’s deep shot intended for Golden was intercepted in the fourth quarter. They ultimately held on to win in the end – but failed to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Green Bay’s offensive line was a major penalty problem — 10 team penalties for 68 yards, four of them on the offensive line.
Just to create an additional headache for this backfield.
It was a three-man committee in a game Green Bay played with the lead, led in snaps by MarShawn Lloyd — 33 (55%, a season-high) to Kaleb Johnson’s 17 (28%) and Chris Brooks’ 10 (17%).
Counting carries plus targets, Lloyd had 12 of the backs’ 25 opportunities (48.0%) on 55% of the snaps, Johnson 8 (32.0%) on 28% and Brooks 5 (20.0%) on 17%, so the touch split tracked the snap split closely; per snap, Johnson (8 carries on 17 snaps, 0.47) and Brooks (4 on 10, 0.40) ran more often than Lloyd (7 on 33, 0.21), whose work was the passing-down piece (5 targets, 5 catches).
Against Week 3, Lloyd’s share rose 32 points (23% to 55%), while Johnson’s fell 8 points (36% to 28%) and Brooks’ fell 24 points (41% to 17%). Kaleb Johnson’s 5-carry, 39-yard second half (including the 31-yard run that set up the touchdown) was the biggest swing in the backfield on yardage. Chris Brooks’ 30 first-half yards came almost entirely on one 27-yard run; he was listed “return questionable” in the second quarter and did not touch the ball again after Q2 14:54 because of his ankle injury.
This was a poor goal-line game for the entire Packers backfield. Green Bay’s running backs combined for 7 red-zone rushing attempts for +7 yards and zero touchdowns.
Brooks — 2 red-zone carries for +1 net yard: a 3-yard carry on 1st-and-6 at the TB 6 (Q1:35, to the 3) and a 1st-and-1 carry from the TB 1 (Q2, 14:54) that lost 2 yards — his last touch of the game.
Lloyd — 3 red-zone carries for +3 yards: +5 on a 1st-and-10 at the TB 18 (Q1, 3:11), +1 on a 3rd-and-2 at the TB 10 (Q1, 1:58), and -3 on a 2nd-and-3 at the TB 3 (Q2, 14:19). He also caught a 4-yard 3rd-and-6 pass from the TB 6 to the 2 (his only red-zone target), and a Q4 1-yard carry from his own 32 that was nullified by a holding penalty.
Johnson — 2 red-zone carries for +3 yards and a lost fumble: +3 from the TB 5 to the 2 on a 1st-and-5 (Q3, 11:20), the set-up for Kraft’s touchdown, and a 1st-and-goal from the TB 3 (Q4, 9:13) for no gain, fumbled and recovered by Tampa Bay at the 4. He did not touch the ball again. Coaches said Johnson will still get more opportunities, especially if Brooks is out in Week 5.
Right now, I trust Lloyd the most in this backfield. Should be able to take advantage of some of the easy matchups to start the season. He’s been getting a lot of red-zone work the last two games (6 RZ carries), coming off a season-high in receiving and targets. His 90% third-down usage this year also shows the team has a lot of trust in him.
Matthew Golden caught 3 of 7 official targets (8 true) for 21 yards and a 2-yard touchdown (a 23.3% official/24.2% adjusted target share). Snap share: 53 snaps (88%) — up from 54 (82%) in Week 3. He played 53 of 60 snaps (second among Green Bay’s skill players) and finished with 3 catches for 21 yards. His first half (3 official targets, 1 catch, 2 yards, 1 TD — the touchdown, an incompletion, and the replay-reversed Q2 catch/fumble that stands as incomplete; a fourth, DPI-erased goal-line target makes it 4 true targets) was the touchdown-only variety, while his second half (4 targets, 2 catches, 19 yards, including the intercepted deep shot) was modest at best.
He also had a 6-yard left-end run (1 carry, 6 yards). Red-zone/goal-line usage as a receiver: 2 goal-line targets — the DPI-erased incompletion on 3rd-and-3 at the TB 3 and the 4th-and-2 touchdown at the TB 2. Compared to Week 3 (12 targets/5 rec/100 yards/1 TD, 22.6%, 54 snaps/82%), his volume fell sharply (12 → 8 true), and his yardage collapsed (100 → 21), but his share held steady (22.6% → 24.2% adjusted); his snap share rose 6 points, and he scored again — a red-zone specialist rather than a volume receiver this week.
Christian Watson caught 3 of 3 official targets for 47 yards (a 10.0% official/12.1% adjusted target share) — true line 4 targets, 4 receptions, 71 yards once an OPI-erased 24-yard catch (Q2, 11:40, his own penalty) is counted. Snap share: 41 snaps (68%) — down from 53 (80%) in Week 3. His 41 snaps ranked third among Green Bay’s pass catchers behind Kraft (55) and Golden (53), for 4 true targets. He started (the only WR in 13-personnel) and was perfect on his targets, but with 1 first-half target (a 16-yard catch; 2 true) and 2 second-half targets (an 18-yard 3rd-and-3 conversion and a 13-yard catch to the TB 3), the volume was very low. Red-zone usage: one red-zone target (a 13-yard catch from the TB 16 to the TB 3, Q4). Compared to Week 3 (10 targets/7 rec/96 yards/1 TD, 18.9% adjusted), his volume collapsed (10 → 4 true), his adjusted share fell by nearly 7 points, and his snap share by 12 points; he had a touchdown last week and none this week — a role that is clearly game-script-sensitive, as Jordan Love’s overall pass attempts dropped 43%. Watson’s routes dropped to a season-low 66% – something worth monitoring. Watson may have just been getting a break, given it was very hot in Tampa.
Per Next Gen Stats, Tucker Kraft finally had his breakout game this season, leading the Packers with seven targets (tied with Matthew Golden) and six catches, racking up 42 yards and scoring his first touchdown of the season. His 23 routes only trailed Golden’s 26, and only Christian Watson had more receiving yards (47). Green Bay has some of the league’s softest pass defenses coming up on the schedule
Not overly concerned about the offense being productive – but whether that translates to wins is the real question. Shootout city is likely on deck with the upcoming schedule.
CB Brandon Cisse suffered a neck injury and was also evaluated for a concussion.
This team has not been the same since they lost Micah Parsons. Parsons hasn’t had any setbacks in his rehab. not expected to practice next week, and it could be November before he’s ready for game action, per Tom Pelissero. LB Edgerin Cooper is now out with a torn Achilles injury.
Next four matchups (GB): Wk5 vs CHI (Home) | Wk6 vs DAL (Home) | Wk7 at DET (Road) | Wk8 vs CAR (Home, Thursday 10/29, 8:15 PM).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Buccaneers
Undrafted rookie free agent Jalon Daniels’ day began with two first-half interceptions, but the first-year QB started to settle in as the game continued.
Tampa Bay answered the Packers’ first TD score with a 9-play, 54-yard, 5:14 drive — a 21-yard Daniels-to-Ted Hurst completion, a 4th-and-1 conversion by Sean Tucker (+8) after a 3rd-and-1 stuff, a 9-yard Daniels scramble, and Tucker’s 2-yard touchdown run (Q2, 5:13; 7-7).
Tampa Bay actually outgained Green Bay in first downs (19 to 15), rushing yards (141 to 86) and efficiency on third down (41.7% to 20.0%), but Green Bay had more total net yards (283 to 275), a better average gain (5.1 to 4.5 yards per play), a 3-for-3 fourth-down line, and more points on fewer snaps (55 plays to 61). Green Bay was flagged 10 times for 68 yards (to Tampa Bay’s 4 for 17), much of it on the offensive line.
Daniels’ first NFL start was a mixed bag with a rushing floor — 19-of-27 for 148 yards, a touchdown, the two first-half interceptions and 3 sacks, plus 8 carries for 55 yards (39% of Tampa Bay’s rushing yards) — and he was far better after halftime (11-of-14 for 74 yards and a touchdown, no interceptions) than before it (8-of-13, 74 yards, 2 INT).
A third interception (Q4, 4th-and-11, intended for Ted Hurst) was reversed on replay to an incomplete pass.
In the red zone: 1 scramble for 9 yards from the GB 11, and one touchdown pass.
Chris Godwin and Cade Otton consolidated the target tree (25.0% and 21.4% adjusted).
Godwin’s catch rate was perfect in the second half (4-of-4 for 18 yards).
Godwin caught 6 of 7 targets for 31 yards (a 25.9% official/25.0% adjusted target share, the team lead). Snap share: 56 snaps (89%) — up from 43 (62%) in Week 3. He had the third-highest snap share among Tampa Bay’s skill players (behind Otton 95% and Egbuka 94%) and led the team in targets (7). His first half (3 targets, 2 catches, 13 yards) was quieter than his second (4 targets, 4 catches, 18 yards) — a possession-receiver week (5.2 yards per catch). Compared to Week 3 (4 official/5 true targets/3 rec/25 yards official, a true 110 yards once the 85-yard erased touchdown is counted, 12.2% adjusted, 43 snaps/62%), his adjusted share doubled (12.2% → 25.0%), and his snap share rose 27 points on 7 targets (vs. 5 true last week), but the explosive production disappeared with an undrafted rookie free agent QB under center.
Otton caught 4 of 6 targets for 37 yards (a 22.2% official/21.4% adjusted target share), started in a 1-TE look, and had 2 of his 4 catches in each half (19 yards first half, 18 second). Snap share: 60 snaps (95%) — essentially unchanged from 65 (94%) in Week 3. He was on the field for 60 of Tampa Bay’s 63 snaps, the highest skill-player share, for 6 targets. Compared to Week 3 (6 official/7 true targets/3 rec/56 yards official, 93 yards true, 17.1% adjusted), his target share rose (17.1% → 21.4%), but his per-target yardage was weaker without an erased 37-yard gain; still no touchdown this season.
Emeka Egbuka caught 2 of 4 official targets (5 true) for 13 yards (a 14.8% official/17.9% adjusted target share). His first-half line was 1 target (a Q1 interception, intended for him) in the official count (2 true, counting a Q2 DPI-erased incompletion); his second half was 3 targets, 2 catches, 13 yards. Snap share: 59 snaps (94%) — up from 51 (74%) in Week 3. He played 59 of 63 snaps but caught 2 passes for 13 yards. Compared to Week 3 (9 targets/5 rec/62 yards, 22.0% adjusted, 51 snaps/74%), his volume and yardage both fell sharply (9 → 5 true) while his snap share rose 20 points — a clear step back in an offense that spread the ball more evenly under Daniels. He also had an end-zone target from Daniels that he was unable to haul in.
Fellow rookie Ted Hurst caught 2 of 3 targets for 25 yards (an 11.1% official/10.7% adjusted target share), all of it in the first half (2 targets, 2 catches, 25 yards, including a 21-yard 3rd-and-5 catch) — his only second-half target was the replay-reversed 4th-and-11 (an incomplete pass after GB’s interception ruling was overturned), the final play of Tampa Bay’s last drive. Snap share: 25 snaps (40%) — down from 52 (75%) in Week 3. He played the fewest snaps of Tampa Bay’s four main receivers (Egbuka 59, Godwin 56, Tez Johnson 35, Hurst 25). Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/1 rec/40 yards/1 TD, 7.3%, 52 snaps/75%), his target volume is unchanged on a snap share that fell 35 points. Felt like he and Daniels had a bit of a connection.
Bucky Irving was not targeted once. He also carried 16 times for 61 yards (3.8 YPC). Snap share: 37 snaps (59%) — up from 36 (52%) in Week 3. His snap rate was 16 points above Kenny Gainwell’s 43%. His second half (10 carries, 38 yards) was heavier than his first (6 carries, 23 yards). Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for 7 yards (+4 and +3 from the GB 17 and 13 on the Q3-Q4 89-yard drive); no goal-line carries — Sean Tucker (eye roll) handled the 2nd-and-1 at the GB 2. Compared to Week 3 (15 carries/46 yards, 4 official/6 true targets, 2 rec/12 yards official/4 rec/32 yards true, 36 snaps/52%), his carry total, efficiency (3.1 → 3.8 YPC) and snap share (up 7 points) all rose slightly, but the receiving role disappeared completely (6 true targets → 0).
Gainwell scored a touchdown on 2 targets and Tucker (again) took the goal-line carries. Gainwell carried 3 times for 5 yards and caught 2 of 2 targets for 22 yards and a 10-yard touchdown (a 7.4% official/7.1% adjusted target share). Snap share: 27 snaps (43%) — down from 32 (46%) in Week 3. He had 5 opportunities (3 carries, 2 targets) on 27 snaps. His first half was 2 carries for 5 yards (no targets); his second half was 1 carry for 0 yards and both targets (12 yards on 1st-and-15 at the GB 29, and the 10-yard touchdown). He started alongside Irving in a 2-RB pony personnel look. Red-zone usage: his touchdown came on his only red-zone target, a 3rd-and-7 at the GB 10 (Q4, 14:57); no red-zone carries. Compared to Week 3 (3 carries/-4 yards, 5 targets/2 rec/14 yards, 32 snaps/46%), his target volume fell sharply (5 → 2) on a snap share 3 points lower.
Tucker carried 3 times for 10 yards and a touchdown, all in the first half, with no targets. Snap share: 3 snaps (5%) — up from 1 (1%) in Week 3, when he had zero touches. His 3 snaps were 3 carries. 3 carries were ALL red-zone carries — a 3rd-and-1 at the GB 19 for no gain (a stuff), a 4th-and-1 at the GB 19 for 8 yards (converted), and a 2nd-and-1 at the GB 2 for the 2-yard touchdown.
Even if Baker Mayfield comes back and can recover from his thumb injury…I’m not optimistic about anybody on this Bucs offense being a staple of fantasy winning lineups. Sell. If you can use the Dallas TNF matchup to ship them off…execute.
Safety Antonie Winfield suffered a rib injury, putting his status in question on a short week on the road.
Next four matchups (TB): Wk5 at DAL (Road on TNF) | Wk6 vs PIT (Home) | Wk7 vs CAR (Home) | Wk8 vs ATL (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Las Vegas Raiders
Add Tre Tucker & Buy Ashton Jeanty
Las Vegas ran 78 plays versus Kansas City’s 58 and held the ball 35:42 to 24:18, out-gained Kansas City 437 to 399 and had the first-down edge 28 to 18 — and lost.
The Raiders threw 52 times (Kirk Cousins, 31 of 52 for 365, no sacks) and ran 26 times for 72 (2.8 per carry). A late kickoff-return fumble that KC turned into a 22-yard touchdown on the next snap, and a final-play Cousins interception ended any chance at a Raiders upset.
Cousins completed 31 of 52 passes for 365 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (85.8 rating), was not sacked and did not have a single carry. His first half was 12-of-18 for 146 yards and a touchdown (Ian Thomas, 27 yards) with a spike; his second half was 19-of-34 for 219 yards, a touchdown (Brock Bowers, 20 yards, from the KC 20), and the Q4 :10 interception intended for Michael Mayer.
Targets by group: tight ends 23 (Bowers 11, Mayer 10, Thomas 2), wide receivers 14 (Tucker 8, White 4, Young 2) and running backs/fullback 11 (Jeanty 8, Washington 2, Heyward 1).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1-of-2 for 4 yards (a 4-yard catch to Jeanty on 3rd-and-13 at the KC 17 and an incompletion to Jeanty on 4th-and-2 at the KC 18); the 20-yard touchdown was thrown from the KC. Compared to Week 3 (22-of-33, 248 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 INT, 3 sacks/21 yards, 3 carries/3 yards, 34 adjusted attempts, 70 snaps), attempts rose from 33 (34 adjusted) to 52 (54), yards from 248 to 365 (7.5 to 7.0 per attempt), touchdowns fell from 3 to 2, he was sacked 0 times (3 in Week 3) and threw one interception after none in Week 3.
Per Next Gen Stats, Cousins threw for 308 yards and both touchdowns against zone coverage, completing 24 of 37 passes (8.3 yards per attempt), compared to 7 of 15 for 57 yards against man coverage (3.8 yards per attempt). He was not sacked despite being pressured on 34.6% of his dropbacks.
Ashton Jeanty carried 15 times for 58 yards (3.9 YPC, long 19) and caught 6 of 8 targets for 68 yards (a 15.4% official, 14.8% adjusted target share). Snap share: 56 snaps (67%) — down from 59 (84%) in Week 3; his official opportunities held (23 against 22) on a snap share 17 points lower.
His first half was 4 carries for 13 yards and 2 targets/1 catch/4 yards; his second half 11 carries for 45 yards (7, 6, 5, −1, −1 before the minor injury scare at Q3 3:08, then 0, 0, 6, 19, 4, 0 after his return) and 6 targets/5 catches/64 yards (28, 8, 6, 10 and 12, plus the Q3 11:37 4th-and-2 incompletion). Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone carry (his deepest carry began at the KC 25), and 2 red-zone targets for 1 catch and 4 yards (3rd-and-13 at the KC 17; the failed 4th-and-2 at the KC 18); no goal-line usage and no touchdown.
He suffered an injury in the third quarter and returned on his first Q4 snap. Compared to Week 3 (19 carries/56 yards, true 20/65, plus 3 targets/3 catches/37 yards, 4 true, 11.8% adjusted, 59 snaps/84%), carries fell from 19 to 15, but targets rose from 3 (4 true) to 8, receptions from 3 to 6, and the share by 3.0 points, while his snap share declined.
The passing-game role continues to buoy his production while the rushing efficiency stayed stagnant (3.9, with 19 of 58 yards on one run) and the red-zone work was target-only; the 8 targets (6 in the second half, three on the final two drives) were partly script-driven.
Jackson Powers-Johnson did not play in this game (depth OL piece Trey Zuhn also got hurt), so that may have thwarted some of Jeanty’s efficiency. He should return in Week 5.
However, the run game for the Raiders has not been successful with Jeanty through four weeks – 5th-worst in EPA/rush this season. Jeanty’s 78 carries through the start of the year are 5th-most in the NFL – but he has zero rushing TDs (7 goal-line carries). The TDs will come. Buy low if there’s a panicked Jeanty manager. He’s the fantasy RB5 in expected PPG.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs defense stuffed 10 of the Raiders’ 26 carries for no gain or a loss (38.5%), their highest stuff rate in a game since at least 2018, and held Las Vegas to 72 rushing yards (-14 rushing yards over expected).
Mike Washington carried 9 times for 18 yards (2.0 YPC, long 11; true 10 carries for 22 yards with a 4-yard run nullified by holding at Q3 7:56) and caught 1 of 2 targets for −1 yard (3.8% official, 3.7% adjusted).
Snap share: 18 snaps (21%) — up from 11 (16%) in Week 3; 11 official opportunities (12 true) on 18 snaps. His first half was 5 carries for 8 yards and a targeted incompletion (Q2 8:46); his second half was 4 carries for 10 yards (5/14 true) and a −1 catch (Q4 14:05).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for −3 yards (−5 at the KC 14, +2 at the KC 19), none from the 5 or closer; no touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (5 carries/54 yards and a 36-yard touchdown, 0 targets, 11 snaps/16%), carries rose from 5 to 9 (10 true), a target appeared, and his snap share rose 5 points, but the yards fell from 54 to 18, and the long touchdown did not repeat.
Washington is still the clear No. 2 with a growing carry share but poor efficiency (his 8- and 11-yard runs gained 19 yards and his other seven carries netted −1) and a negative red-zone line.
FB Casey Heyward carried twice for −4 yards (a direct-snap +1 on 4th-and-1 and a −5 loss on 1st-and-10 at the KC 30) and caught his one target for 9 yards (1.9%). Snap share: 19 snaps (23%) — the same count as Week 3 (19 snaps, 27%); the share is lower only because Las Vegas ran 84 snaps against 70.
Tight end Brock Bowers caught 6 of 11 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown (21.2% official, 20.4% adjusted — the team lead). Snap share: 69 snaps (82%) — up from 55 (79%) in Week 3;
Michael Mayer played 5 more snaps (74) but drew one fewer target (10 to Bowers’ 11). His first half was 6 targets/3 catches/41 yards (18, 7 and 16, plus incompletions on 3rd-and-9, 1st-and-10 and 2nd-and-8); his second half 5 targets/3 catches/45 yards and a touchdown (4, 21 and the 20-yard score, plus incompletions on 3rd-and-7 and 3rd-and-11). Six of his 11 targets came on third down (3 catches for 41 yards, all converted). His touchdown was thrown from the KC 20. Compared to Week 3 (13 targets/10 catches/116 yards/1 touchdown, 38.2% adjusted, 55 snaps/79%), targets fell from 13 to 11, catches from 10 to 6, yards from 116 to 86, and the share by 17.8 points, while his snap share rose 3 points and the touchdown count held at 1.
Mayer caught 8 of 10 targets for 82 yards (19.2% official, 18.5% adjusted). Ran a route on just under 70% of the dropbacks.
Snap share: 74 snaps (88%) — up from 61 (87%) in Week 3; the most offensive snaps of any Las Vegas skill player. His first half was 5 targets/5 catches/51 yards (10, 15, 7 on 3rd-and-8, 2 and 17); his second half 5 targets/3 catches/31 yards (11, 9 and 11 on 3rd-and-6, plus an incompletion and the final-play intended-target interception at Q4 :10). Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/32 yards/1 touchdown, 8.8% adjusted, 61 snaps/87%), targets rose from 3 to 10, receptions from 3 to 8, yards from 32 to 82 and the share by 9.7 points on a snap share that held (87% to 88%).
The main thing to realize with these two Raiders TEs is that they aren’t playing the same position. Bowers is more of a glorified slot WR than an actual TE, whereas Mayer is the more in-line tight end. Hence why both guys can be productive despite both holding the TE designation.
Tre Tucker caught 4 of 8 official targets for 44 yards (15.4% official; 9 true targets, 16.7% adjusted, adding a zero-value target nullified by a Roughing the Passer call at Q4 2:38). Snap share: 56 snaps (67%) — up from 40 (57%) in Week 3. His first half was 1 target/1 catch/14 yards; his second half 7 official targets/3 catches/30 yards (8 true targets) — −1, 8, and 23 yards — with four of the eight official targets on the final 1:16 drive (2 catches, 31 yards). Don’t be overaggressive with him on waivers.
Compared to Week 3 (4 targets/4 catches/43 yards, 11.8% adjusted, 40 snaps/57%), targets rose from 4 to 9 true (8 official), catches held at 4, yards at 44 (43), and the share rose 4.9 points, with his snap share up 10 points — a volume increase with the same catch count. Tucker was the leading wide receiver by targets, with an abysmal 44.4% true catch rate; the volume was concentrated in the Q4 comeback attempts (6 true targets in Q4). Not ideal, but there’s a world where he still produces given his full-time role on offense.
Cody White (WR) caught 2 of 4 targets for 36 yards (7.7% official, 7.4% adjusted): a 27-yard deep-left catch (2nd-and-10 at the LV 10, Q4 9:00), a 9-yard catch (Q4 2:44), a deep-left incompletion (Q4 :47) and a 7-yard catch reversed on replay to an incompletion (Q4 :43; the official target stands). He also caught the two-point. Snap share: 52 snaps (62%) — up from 15 (21%) in Week 3; he played 52 of 84 snaps for 4 targets, none in the first half. No targets in the first half; 4 targets/2 catches/36 yards in the second. Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/1 catch/4 yards and a touchdown, 8.8% adjusted, 15 snaps/21%), targets rose from 3 to 4, yards from 4 to 36, and the share fell 1.4 points, even as his snap share rose 41 points (21% to 62%).
Jalen Nailor (WR; 19 snaps/23%; Week 3: 3 targets/1 catch/16 yards, 40 snaps/57%) had no official targets and one true target (nullified, 1.9% adjusted) and was out by Q3 11:32 with a concussion. White seems like the biggest beneficiary of increased playing time in the absence of Nailor.
Malik Benson (WR; 7 snaps/8%; Week 3: 1 target, 4 snaps/6%) had one punt return for 4 yards and no targets.
Next four matchups (LV): Wk5 at NE (Road) | Wk6 vs BUF (Home) | Wk7 vs LAR (Home) | Wk8 at NYJ (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Kansas City Chiefs
Add Tyreek Hill & Cyrus Allen & Hold Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (97.2 rating), was sacked twice for 15 yards, and carried twice for 0 yards (a 1-yard scramble and a kneel-down).
He finished 10-of-18 for 139 yards and a touchdown (Thornton, 2 yards), with a 7-yard sack and a 1-yard scramble; in the second half, he went 5-of-12 for 86 yards and a touchdown (Tyquan Thornton, 8 yards), with an 8-yard sack and the kneel-down. Three completions — Worthy’s 41-yarder (3rd-and-10), Thornton’s 42 (1st-and-10 at the LV 47) and Thornton’s 55 (3rd-and-5) — account for 138 of his 225 yards; the other 12 completions gained 87. KC won this game by generating explosive plays, not their usual down-to-down dominance.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2-of-4 for 10 yards and two touchdowns in the red zone (both to Thornton: 2 yards on 3rd-and-2 from the LV 2 and 8 yards on 2nd-and-8 from the LV 8; incompletions to Gray on 3rd-and-10 and to no named target on 1st-and-8), a −7 sack on 2nd-and-3 at the LV 3, and an incomplete two-point pass to Walker from the LV 2.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes posted a 3.04-second average time to throw, his season-high, while facing a season-high 39.4% pressure rate from the Raiders defense. Under pressure, Mahomes completed just one of 2 of 10 passes for 96 yards while being sacked twice, compared to 13 of 20 for 129 yards and both touchdowns from a clean pocket.
Kenneth Walker carried 22 times for 177 yards (8.0 YPC, long 76), scored two touchdowns, and caught his only target for 2 yards (3.1% official/adjusted; the two-point target from the LV 2 is not an official target). Snap share: 45 snaps (75%) — up from 38 (73%) in Week 3; 23 official opportunities on 45 snaps (51%). His first half was 12 carries for 62 yards (4, 2, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0 in the first quarter, then 11, 21, 6, 7, 2) and 1 target/1 catch/2 yards; his second half 10 carries for 115 yards and both touchdowns (6, 3, a 76-yard run at Q3 :30, −1, 3, 2, a 2-yard touchdown, a 22-yard touchdown, 1 and 1).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 4 red-zone carries for 9 yards and a touchdown (+5 from the LV 7, 0 from the LV 2, +2 from the LV 5 and +2 TOUCHDOWN from the LV 2); three carries from the 5 or closer (0, +2, +2 TD); none from the 1. Four carries went for 11 or more yards (130 yards); his other 18 gained 47 (2.6 per carry). Compared to Week 3 (18 carries/70 yards and a rushing touchdown plus 2 targets/2 catches/3 yards and a receiving touchdown, 38 snaps/73%), carries rose from 18 to 22, yards from 70 to 177 (3.9 to 8.0 per carry), rushing touchdowns from 1 to 2, and targets fell from 2 to 1, on a snap share that rose only 2 points. Takeaway: an every-down, goal-line and clock-killing role confirmed by 22 carries and all four red-zone runs, with rookie Emmett Johnson at zero carries.
Per Next Gen Stats, Walker continues to average a career-high snap share (75.3%) and intended touch rate (56.1%). I don’t think it’s crazy to see KC dial back his workload given that they had all incentive to ride him hard to start the year given their early Week 5 bye week.
Johnson (caught his only official target for 10 yards (3.3% official; 2 true targets/2 catches/13 yards, 6.3% adjusted, adding a 3-yard catch nullified by Kansas City’s Illegal Formation at Q2 12:51). Snap share: 16 snaps (27%) — unchanged from 14 (27%) in Week 3; those 16 snaps produced no carry and one official target (two true). He returned two kickoffs for 49 yards (long 25) and downed a punt on special teams at the LV 12. Remains a high-end handcuff that Walker managers should RUN to waivers this week after he probably gets dropped (or add him heading into Week 6 after KC returns from their bye week). Probable candidate for a post-bye rookie usage bump.
Tyquan Thornton caught 5 of 8 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns (26.7% official, 25.0% adjusted — the team lead).
Snap share: 38 snaps (63%) — up from 24 (46%) in Week 3; he played the same number of snaps as Jalen Royals (38), who had 2 targets to his 8.
His first half was 4 targets/3 catches/48 yards and a touchdown (4, the 2-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-2 from the LV 2, and a 42-yard catch on 1st-and-10 at the LV 47, plus a Q2 12:21 incompletion); his second half 4 targets/2 catches/63 yards and a touchdown (the 8-yard score from the LV 8 and a 55-yard catch on 3rd-and-5, plus two deep-middle incompletions on 3rd-and-18 and 3rd-and-7).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone targets, 2 catches, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns (Kansas City’s only two passing touchdowns). 97 of his 111 yards came on two catches (42 and 55). But he left after the 55-yard catch (Q4 3:35) and did not return. Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/2 catches/22 yards, 7.7% adjusted, 24 snaps/46%), targets rose from 2 to 8, the share by 17.3 points, his snap share by 17 points, yards from 22 to 111, and touchdowns from 0 to 2 — a role jump in a game where Rashee Rice’s volume disappeared after he also got hurt; His health (and Rice’s hamstring) is the Week 6 question after the bye.
Thornton is viewed as out indefinitely after dislocating his ankle.
Xavier Worthy caught 4 of 7 targets for 70 yards (23.3% official, 21.9% adjusted). Snap share: 45 snaps (75%) — down from 43 (83%) in Week 3; his count rose by 2 snaps, but the share fell because Kansas City ran 60 snaps against 52. His first half was 4 targets/3 catches/63 yards (a 41-yard catch on 3rd-and-10, 12 on 2nd-and-15, 10 on 3rd-and-3, and a deep-right incompletion on 3rd-and-4); his second half 3 targets/1 catch/7 yards (a 7-yard catch, then incompletions on 2nd-and-7 and a deep-right 3rd-and-8 on the final drive). Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone target (his 41-yard catch ended at the LV 7 but began at the LV 48). Compared to Week 3 (2 official/3 true targets, 3 catches/27 yards true, 11.5% adjusted, 43 snaps/83%; shares of 22.2%, 14.9% and 11.5% in Weeks 1–3), targets rose from 2 official (3 true) to 7, the share by 10.4 points, yards from 27 to 70, and he reversed a three-week decline, while his snap share fell 8 points (83% to 75%). 4 of his seven targets came on third down (2 catches for 51 yards, both converted); a bounce-back in volume with a boom-bust catch pattern. The team may have no choice but to rely more on Worthy given the injuries to their other WRs.
Travis Kelce caught just 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards (13.3% official, 12.5% adjusted). Snap share: 50 snaps (83%) — up from 41 (79%) in Week 3; he played more snaps than any other Kansas City skill player and still only drew 4 targets. His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/15 yards (5 on 2nd-and-7, 10 on 2nd-and-4, and an incompletion on 2nd-and-3); his second half was 1 target/0 catches (1st-and-10, Q3 9:42). No red-zone target, no touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (2 official/3 true targets, 3 catches/66 yards with a touchdown, 11.5% adjusted, 41 snaps/79%), his true target count rose from 3 to 4, the adjusted share by 1.0 point, and his snap share by 4 points, but his yards fell from 66 to 15, and the Week 3 touchdown did not repeat. Kelce was a screaming sell-high candidate last week, but the season-long equation has changed somewhat with the KC WR injuries.
There’s still a case to be made to sell-high on the 37-year-old TE after his extremely hot YAC to start the year, especially with managers likely to wave away the last two weeks’ lack of volume based on his new outlook. On the bye week…probably just a hold.
Rashee Rice had no official targets and one true target (a 7-yard catch on 1st-and-10 at the KC 31, Q1 8:04, nullified by Defensive Offside; 3.1% adjusted). Played just 6 snaps (10%) — down from 40 (77%) in Week 3; after exiting due to a hamstring injury. Compared to Week 3 (9 targets, 7 catches, 88 yards, 34.6% adjusted — the team lead), targets fell from 9 to 1 (true), a 31.5-point drop in share and a 67-point drop in snap share.
Noah Gray (TE) caught 2 of 3 targets for 17 yards (10.0% official, 9.4% adjusted): an 11-yard catch (1st-and-10, Q1 5:23), an incompletion on 3rd-and-10 at the LV 10 (Q2 1:30, the red-zone target) and a 6-yard catch on 3rd-and-11 (Q4 10:29, punt). Snap share: 41 snaps (68%) — up from 33 (63%) in Week 3. First half 2 targets/1 catch/11 yards; second half 1 target/1 catch/6 yards. Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/39 yards, 11.5% adjusted), the target count held at 3, the share fell 2.1 points, and yards fell from 39 to 17 — though his snap share rose 5 points, so the lineup-card move did not cost him snaps.
Royals (38 snaps/63%, up 44 points from 10 snaps/19% in Week 3, when he had 1 target/1 catch/11 yards) had 2 targets and no catch (both incompletions, on 1st-and-10 at the LV 48 and 3rd-and-3 at the LV 45); He benefitted the most in playing time from the Rice injury.
Cyrus Allen (WR; 5 snaps/8%; Week 3: 1 snap/2%) had a deep-middle incompletion on 2nd-and-10 (Q1 4:40).
With KC on a bye week, there should be no immediate rush to add anybody off the waiver wire other than Tyreek Hill. But if he doesn’t actually sign with KC, I’d be looking to stash rookie WR Cyrus Allen. Hill also likely won’t be ready to play until November based on the reports regarding his injury.
Next four matchups (KC): Wk5 BYE | Wk6 vs LAC (Home) | Wk7 at SEA (Road) | Wk8 at DEN (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM).
Seattle Seahawks
Add Emanuel Wilson
Seattle gained 286 net yards on 58 plays (33 rushes, 22 pass attempts, 3 sacks), made 19 first downs (5 by penalty), went 3-for-12 on third down, 0-for-0 on fourth, 2-for-4 in the red zone and 1-for-2 on goal-to-go, turned the ball over once and STILL scored 30 points.
Seattle scored 14 points on two drives totaling three plays that followed a muffed punt and a Justin Herbert interception. Seattle was also flagged 14 times for 150 yards. Roughing-the-passer fouls (30 yards) kept two Los Angeles drives alive.
SEA DT Leonard Williams (Q4 8:06) also got banged up, and before the game Jadarian Price was placed on IR (will miss at least 3 more games).
Sam Darnold completed 13 of 22 passes for 168 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception (94.5 rating), was sacked 3 times for 20 yards and carried 3 times for 6 yards (an 8-yard scramble and two kneel-downs).
He finished 9-of-14 for 116 yards, a touchdown (Wilson, 23 yards), and an interception (Q1 14:46), with one sack (−8); in the second half, he went 4-of-8 for 52 yards and a touchdown (Horton, 6 yards), with two sacks (−3 and −9). Targets by group: wide receivers 12 (Smith-Njigba 6, Shaheed 3, Kupp 2, Horton 1), tight end 3 (Barner) and running backs 5 (Wilson 4, Holani 1), with two attempts credited to no receiver.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1-of-2 for 6 yards and a touchdown (Horton on 3rd-and-1 from the LAC 6; an incomplete 3rd-and-7 to Smith-Njigba from the LAC 17), plus an 8-yard scramble that began at the LAC 36 (not a red-zone snap) and the two end-of-game kneel-downs. Compared to Week 3 (31-of-45, 379 yards, 4 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 0 carries; 46 team attempts counting the trick pass), attempts fell from 45 to 22, yards from 379 to 168, touchdowns from 4 to 2, interceptions from 2 to 1, and he ran three times for 6 after none.
Seahawks RB Emanuel Wilson started and carried 21 times for 81 yards (3.9 YPC, long 15) and a touchdown and caught 3 of 4 targets for 39 yards and another touchdown (18.2% official and adjusted). Snap share up big-time to 36 snaps (60%) — up from 24 (36%) in Week 3.
Those 36 snaps carried 25 official touches (21 carries and 4 targets), 0.69 touches per snap.
Wilson’s true line was 23 carries for 92 yards: a 9-yard run (Q1 11:54) was erased by Offensive Holding and a 2-yard run (Q1 8:14) by Defensive Offside. His first half was 10 carries for 44 yards (12/55 true) and a touchdown plus 3 targets/2 catches/26 yards and a touchdown (an interception, a 23-yard score and a 3-yard catch); his second half was 11 carries for 37 yards (6 in the third quarter, with the Q3 4:48 fumble that Wilson recovered, and 5 in the fourth for 19) and 1 target/1 catch/13 yards.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for 12 yards and a touchdown (+4 from the LAC 10; +8 TOUCHDOWN from the LAC 8); none from the 5 or closer; none from the 1; no red-zone target.
The fumble was his only blemish (Q3 4:48), but it was recovered by Wilson at the SEA 35 (no loss). Two carries of 15 yards account for 30 of his 81; his other 19 carries gained 51 (2.7 per carry). Compared to Week 3 (9 carries/14 yards, 0 targets, 24 snaps/36%), carries rose from 9 to 21 (23 true), yards from 14 to 81 (92 true), targets from 0 to 4, and he scored two touchdowns after none.
Wilson operated as the clear lead back with Price missing, trusted on the 3rd-and-1 at the LAC 34 and on the goal-to-go carry, but one of his touchdowns (the 23-yarder) came off a muffed punt, and the efficiency was modest for the grinding RB.
Twenty-one carries for 81 yards and a rushing touchdown plus 4 targets (3 catches, 39 yards and a receiving touchdown) — 25 official opportunities, 75.8% of the 33 official running-back opportunities (27 of 35 true, 77.1%) — against George Holani’s 7 carries and 1 target (8, 24.2% official)
Holani (RB) carried 7 times for 18 yards (long 9) and caught his one target for 2 yards (4.5% official and adjusted).
Snap share: 22 snaps (37%) — up from 24 (36%) in Week 3 (a 1-point rise on two fewer snaps). His first half was 4 carries for 10 yards (9, −1, 4, −2) and 1 target/1 catch/2 yards (a 2-yard catch on 2nd-and-18, Q2 9:38); his second half was 3 carries for 8 yards (2, 8 and −2 on 3rd-and-1, Q4 4:55) and no target. No red-zone touch.
Compared to Week 3 (3 carries/10 yards, 5 targets/5 catches/48 yards, 10.9% adjusted, 24 snaps/36%), carries rose from 3 to 7 but targets fell from 5 to 1, yards from 58 to 20, and the share by 6.4 points on a snap share that held (36% to 37%). His Week 3 receiving breakout did not repeat under a different game script; his one stuffed 3rd-and-1 is the only short-yardage data point.
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said Monday that Zach Charbonnet (knee) won’t be activated from the PUP list in advance of Sunday’s game against the 49ers. So, we will likely get another week of heavy Wilson. Seattle also signed Joe Mixon, but it remains to be seen what he has left in the tank after missing all of last season with a foot injury. I wouldn’t waste my FAAB or roster space on adding someone like Mixon.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, a starter) caught 5 of 6 targets for 76 yards (27.3% official and adjusted — the team lead). Snap share: 53 snaps (88%) — up from 58 (87%) in Week 3 (a 1-point rise on five fewer snaps). His first half was 4 targets/4 catches/56 yards (9, 6, 28 and a replay-spotted 13); his second half 2 targets/1 catch/20 yards (a 20-yard catch on the first snap of the half and the 3rd-and-7 incompletion at Q3 1:26). Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target (the incomplete 3rd-and-7 from the LAC 17); no touchdown. Three of his six targets came on third down (2 catches, 41 yards; one converted, the 28-yarder on 3rd-and-16). Compared to Week 3 (14 targets/10 catches/128 yards/2 touchdowns, 30.4% adjusted, 58 snaps/87%), targets fell from 14 to 6, catches from 10 to 5, yards from 128 to 76, the share by 3.1 points, and both touchdowns did not repeat, on a snap share that held (87% to 88%). Takeaway: still the top target on a 22-pass attempt night (46 attempts in Week 3); his share (27.3%) is close to last week’s 30.4%, so the drop is in volume, not in his usage.
Rashid Shaheed caught 1 of 3 targets for 20 yards (13.6% official and adjusted) and ran twice for 33 yards (a 28-yard touchdown on 1st-and-10 at the LAC 28 and +5 from the LAC 15). Snap share: 36 snaps (60%) — up from 31 (46%) in Week 3. Those 36 snaps produced 3 targets and 2 carries (5 touches). First half 2 targets/1 catch/20 yards (a 20-yard deep-right catch and a deep-left incompletion) and 1 carry/28 yards and a touchdown; second half 1 target/0 catches and 1 carry/5 yards. Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone carry (+5 from the LAC 15); no red-zone target; the 28-yard touchdown run was not snapped inside the 20. He returned two punts for 12 yards and three kickoffs for 83 (long 31; one fumble, recovered). Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/2 catches/14 yards, 6.5% adjusted, 31 snaps/46%), targets held at 3, catches fell from 2 to 1, receiving yards rose from 14 to 20, the share rose 7.1 points, and he added 33 rushing yards and a touchdown; his snap share rose 14 points (46% to 60%). A rushing touchdown boosted the line, but the receiving role remains too small. That being said, the team has openly talked about using Shaheed more in the backfield to add speed because of the injury to Jadarian Price.
Cooper Kupp caught 1 of 2 targets for 13 yards (9.1% official and adjusted): an incompletion on 2nd-and-11 (Q2 2:46) and a 13-yard catch on 1st-and-10 at the LAC 28 (Q3 12:33). Snap share: 34 snaps (57%) — down from 45 (67%) in Week 3. He played 57% of the snaps for 2 targets (9.1%). First half 1 target/0 catches; second half 1 target/1 catch/13 yards. No red-zone target. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/4 catches/46 yards and a touchdown, 10.9% adjusted), targets fell from 5 to 2, yards from 46 to 13, and the share by 1.8 points, and his snap share fell 10 points (67% to 57%).
Tory Horton (WR; 10 snaps/17%, down from 15 snaps/22% in Week 3, when he had 3 targets/3 catches/48 yards) caught his only target for a 6-yard touchdown (3rd-and-1 from the LAC 6, Q3 10:26; 4.5%) — his one target was a red-zone touchdown, the only receiving touchdown by a wide receiver in the game.
Next four matchups (SEA): Wk5 vs SF (Home) | Wk6 at DEN (Road) | Wk7 vs KC (Home) | Wk8 vs CHI (Home, MNF 11/2, 8:15 PM ESPN).
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Keaton Mitchell & Tre’ Harris & Oronde Gadsen & Sell Omarion Hampton
Los Angeles out-gained Seattle 301 to 286, ran 68 plays to 58, had the first-down edge 20 to 19 and held the ball 30:59 to 29:01 — and lost by seven on turnovers: the Chargers gave the ball away four times (two Justin Herbert interceptions, a muffed punt and a Herbert sack-fumble) to Seattle’s one.
Los Angeles was 5-for-15 on third down and 2-for-2 on fourth; Seattle was 3-for-12 on third down. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers’ defense pressured Darnold on 53.8% of dropbacks, the highest rate he’s faced in a game as a Seahawk, completing 3 of 11 attempts for 37 yards and an interception when under pressure. The Chargers registered pressure on 60.0% of dropbacks in the first half (45.5% in the second half).
The Bolts’ defense was not really the main problem here. They pressured Darnold at the 3rd-highest rate among defenses in Week 4. Finished 8th in EPA/play allowed and 9th in yards/play in Week 4.
Los Angeles ran 32 times for 147 yards (4.6 per carry) and held the ball 30:59, but trailed 20-6 at the half and 30-13 after three quarters. Los Angeles was also flagged 16 times for 130 yards (first half 4-20). Self-inflicted mistakes crushed LA. And the injuries as well.
WR Ladd McConkey (Foot), OT Joe Alt (Out), Trevor Penning (Questionable), and OT Rashawn Slater (ankle) are the ones to track. CB Donte Jackson also sustained an injury on the defensive side of the ball. Slater was later confirmed to have a high ankle sprain.
Justin Herbert completed 19 of 31 passes for 189 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions (62.4 rating), was sacked four times for 35 yards, carried 6 times for 40 yards and lost a fumble. His first half was 5-of-14 for 36 yards with both interceptions (his first throw of the game, and a Q2 1:29 throw intended for Ladd McConkey) and two sacks (−7 and −8); his second half 14-of-17 for 153 yards and the 9-yard touchdown to Kimani Vidal, with two sacks (−11 and −9, the second a lost fumble at Q4 1:03). Targets by group: tight ends 8 (Gadsden), wide receivers 11 (Harris 5, Johnston 2, McConkey 2, Davis 1, Valdes-Scantling 1) and running backs 11 (Mitchell 6, Vidal 3, Hampton 2), and he was the (incomplete) target of Tre Harris’ trick pass. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2-of-2 for 14 yards and a touchdown (Gadsden 5 on 4th-and-4 from the SEA 14; Vidal 9 on 2nd-and-9 from the SEA 9), one run for 3 yards from the SEA 5 (2nd-and-5, Q4 8:06) and the target of Harris’ incomplete trick pass from the SEA 9.
Compared to Week 3 (20-of-34, 226 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception — 2 true, 2 sacks/9, 4 carries/17 — true 5/26 — 35 adjusted attempts, 69 snaps), attempts fell from 34 (35 adjusted) to 31 (32), yards from 226 to 189, touchdowns held at 1, interceptions rose from 1 (2 true) to 2, sacks doubled from 2 to 4 and his rushing rose from 17 yards (26 true) to 40. An overall low-yield line (6.1 yards per attempt) on a day with three turnovers and four sacks; 5-of-14 with two picks before the half, 14-of-17 after it with Los Angeles trailing 20-6.
Per Next Gen Stats, Herbert faced pressure on 55.0% of dropbacks, with only one game last season posting a higher pressure rate (Week 14 vs. Eagles). Not Good.
Under pressure, Herbert went 7 of 13 for 101 yards and an interception while taking four sacks, including a strip-sack fumble with a minute left in the fourth quarter to clinch the Seahawks’ win. From a clean pocket, Herbert went 12 of 18 for yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Herbert’s five scramble runs under pressure for 37 scramble rush yards were both season-highs. Herbert’s first-half production primarily came underneath, with only one downfield completion for 13 yards and his two interceptions, while the second half saw three downfield completions for 91 yards.
RB Keaton Mitchell carried 10 times for 39 yards and caught 5 of 6 targets for 24 yards (18.8% official and adjusted — second on the team). Snap share: 26 snaps (37%) — down from 26 (38%) in Week 3. But he played one snap more than Omarion Hampton and Vidal (25 each) and had the most opportunities of the three (16, or 0.62 per snap). His first half was 3 carries for 4 yards (0, 3, 1) and 2 targets/1 catch/8 yards; his second half 7 carries for 35 yards (−3, 1, 8, 20, 2, 1, 6) and 4 targets/4 catches/16 yards (2, 3, 14 and a −3 catch). Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone carry or target (his deepest carry began at the SEA 24). A 20-yard run on 2nd-and-2 (Q4 13:28) was his only carry over 8 yards; his other nine gained 19. He also returned one kickoff for 28 yards (Q1). Compared to Week 3 (8 carries/52 yards, 3 targets/3 catches/−5 yards and a touchdown, 8.6% adjusted, 38%), carries rose from 8 to 10, targets from 3 to 6, receptions from 3 to 5, combined yards from 47 to 63, and his adjusted share by 10.2 points; he lost the Week 3 receiving touchdown, and his snap count was unchanged at 26 (38% to 37%). Takeaway: the leading Los Angeles back in opportunities (16, 11 of them in the second half) on a 10-carry/6-target mix; Omarion Hampton took every running-back carry from the SEA 17 in.
Omarion Hampton carried 9 times for 45 yards and a touchdown (true 10 for 50 yards) and caught 2 of 2 targets for 8 yards (6.3% official and adjusted).
Snap share: 25 snaps (35%) — down from 29 (42%) in Week 3. His 11 official opportunities came at 0.44 per snap, behind Mitchell’s 0.62, in a DREADED three-way snap split. His first half was 4 carries for 26 yards (3, 15, 2, 6; 5 for 31 yards with the erased 5-yard run) and 1 target/1 catch/5 yards; his second half 5 carries for 19 yards and the touchdown (−1, then 6, 11, 1 and a 2-yard score on the 16-play drive) and 1 target/1 catch/3 yards (the Q4 11:26 catch, with Hall’s Roughing the Passer).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 3 red-zone carries for 14 yards and a touchdown (+11 from the SEA 17, +1 from the SEA 6, +2 TOUCHDOWN from the SEA 2); 2 carries from the 6 or closer; 1 from the 5 or closer; none from the 1.
Compared to Week 3 (15 carries/56 yards, 1 target/0 catches, no touchdown, 42%; stopped at the BUF 1 in a goal-line sequence), carries fell from 15 to 9 (10 true), yards from 56 to 45 (5.0 per carry against 3.7), targets rose from 1 to 2 and catches from 0 to 2, and he scored; his snap share fell 7 points (42% to 35%) as Vidal’s rose 10.
A reduced carry count behind a trailing script and a Mitchell-heavy passing-game role, but he owned all three red-zone runs and the goal-line touchdown; 26 of his 45 yards came on 15- and 11-yard runs and his other seven carries gained 19. TD-or-bust.
Vidal carried 5 times for 25 yards and caught 2 of 3 targets for 11 yards and a touchdown (9.4% official and adjusted). Snap share: 25 snaps (35%) — up from 17 (25%) in Week 3. He played as many snaps as Hampton on 8 official opportunities (0.32 per snap), the lowest rate of the three backs. Woof. Also ran the fewest routes.
His first half was 4 carries for 16 yards (1, −1, 9, 7 — the 7-yarder drew Unnecessary Roughness) and 2 targets/1 catch/2 yards; his second half was 1 carry for 9 yards (Q4 1:42) and the 9-yard touchdown catch (Q3 4:58).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target, caught for a touchdown from the SEA 9; no red-zone carry. He also returned two kickoffs for 48 yards (long 26; a 38-yard return was reduced by a holding foul). Compared to Week 3 (1 carry/6 yards, 3 targets/1 catch/14 yards, 8.6% adjusted, 17 snaps/25%), carries rose from 1 to 5, yards from 20 to 36 combined, and the share by 0.8 points; he scored a touchdown, and his snap share rose 10 points (25% to 35%), the largest rise in the backfield.
Vidal started in the fullback/two-tight-end look, but the work was a handful of carries (four in the first half) and one touchdown catch.
This backfield has turned into a fantasy football manager’s nightmare. Sell.
Oronde Gadsden caught 5 of 8 targets for 36 yards (25.0% official and adjusted — the team lead). Snap share: 39 snaps (55%) — down from 39 (57%) in Week 3 (the same count). He drew the team-high 8 targets on 55% of the snaps, a smaller share than Tre Harris (93%) or Quentin Johnston (75%) played.
But a tale of two halves. His first half was 3 targets/1 catch/8 yards (the Q1 14:53 interception, an 8-yard catch on 3rd-and-11 and a 3rd-and-4 incompletion), plus a 2-yard carry at Q2 1:50; his second half 5 targets/4 catches/28 yards (5, 9, 5 and 9 yards, plus a 3rd-and-7 incompletion). Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target, a 5-yard catch on 4th-and-4 from the SEA 14 (converted, Q3 5:54); no touchdown.
Four of his eight targets came on third down (2 catches, 17 yards, none converted).
Compared to Week 3 (3 official/4 true targets, 0 catches, 11.4% adjusted, 39 snaps/57%), targets rose from 4 (true) to 8, catches from 0 to 5, yards from 0 to 36, and the share by 13.6 points on the same 39 snaps (57% to 55%). He was the top target at 4.5 yards per target — volume without yardage — and his 4th-and-4 conversion extended the Chargers’ touchdown drive.
Still, you’d also like to see his route participation higher than 61%.
Tre Harris caught 3 of 5 targets for 60 yards (15.6% official and adjusted). Snap share: 66 snaps (93%) — up from 40 (58%) in Week 3. He was on the field for 93% of the snaps and drew 5 targets (15.6%), third on the team.
His first half was 1 target/1 catch/13 yards (2nd-and-10, Q1 13:26); his second half 4 targets/2 catches/47 yards (a 26-yard deep-right catch on 1st-and-10 at the SEA 46, Q3 8:35; incompletions at Q3 1:13 and Q4 2:54; and a 21-yard catch on 3rd-and-4, Q4 2:23). He threw the incomplete trick pass to Herbert on 1st-and-goal from the SEA 9 (Q3 5:05). Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone target; the trick pass was his only red-zone snap. Two catches (26 and 21) account for 47 of his 60 yards. Compared to Week 3 (7 targets/6 catches/76 yards, 20.0% adjusted, 40 snaps/58%), targets fell from 7 to 5, catches from 6 to 3, yards from 76 to 60, and the share by 4.4 points, even as his snap share rose 35 points (58% to 93%). He has three games with 50-plus receiving yards.
Quentin Johnston caught 1 of 2 official targets for 44 yards (6.3% official and adjusted) — a deep-left incompletion on 3rd-and-4 (Q1 12:03) and a 44-yard deep-right catch on 4th-and-7 from the LAC 10 (Q4 3:28). A deep-right incompletion at Q4 14:18 was erased by an offensive holding (not adjusted), and he ran a −4 jet sweep (Q1 3:16). Snap share: 53 snaps (75%) — down from 60 (87%) in Week 3. He played 75% of the snaps for 2 targets (6.3%) and a jet-sweep carry. First half: 1 target/0 catches; second half: 1 target/1 catch/44 yards. No red-zone target. Compared to Week 3 (6 targets/3 catches/40 yards, 17.1% adjusted, 60 snaps/87%), targets fell from 6 to 2 and the share by 10.8 points; yards rose from 40 to 44 on one catch; his snap share fell 12 points (87% to 75%). A sharp volume drop — one catch on the final drive accounts for the yards. Even if McConkey compromised due to his foot injury, QJ still isn’t stepping up in any capacity.
Harris has been the more involved and better WR this season, so I’ll take my chances with him in Week 5 versus a potentially depleted Broncos’ secondary. He also led the team in routes run in Week 4 (34, 94% route participation).
McConkey was targeted twice and caught neither (6.3% official and adjusted): a 3rd-and-12 incompletion (Q1 2:44) and the Q2 1:29 interception. Snap share: 24 snaps (34%) — down from 61 (88%) in Week 3 after leaving with another injury. First half: 2 targets/0 catches; no second-half targets. Out with a foot injury.
Offensive injuries and turnovers continue to destroy this team. Schedule remains brutal
And even if the real-life silver lining is that the defense is playing better…that might not help the offense get out of this funk.
Next four matchups (LAC): Wk5 vs DEN (Home) | Wk6 at KC (Road) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 at LAR (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM FOX)
Denver Broncos
Sell J.K. Dobbins
Neither team was sacked (0-0 sacks), neither quarterback threw an interception, and the only turnover was a Denver punt-return fumble that San Francisco turned into a touchdown. Denver won possession (30:53 to 29:07), and the first-down count was 16 to 20.
But the story of the game was the Broncos’ sluggish first-half offense. Through four games, they have scored 1 first-half TD. And it wasn’t Week 4 when they found the end zone before the 30-minute mark.
RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins split Denver’s backfield evenly by opportunity but not by role: Harvey 7 carries/25 yards plus 10 targets (17 official opportunities — 18 true — and 50% of the backfield’s 34 official), Dobbins 11 carries/40 yards plus 2 targets (13 official, 14 true; 38%), and Tyler Badie 2 carries/7 yards plus 2 targets (4; 12%). Harvey was the passing-down and early-game back: he caught all 10 of his targets (68 yards, 6.8 per target), 6 of them in the first half (6 catches, 26 yards, all with the game tied 0-0 or 3-3), and 4 in the second half (42 yards, including an 18-yard catch on the touchdown drive). Dobbins was the carry back and the second-half back: 3 first-half carries for 8 yards became 8 second-half carries for 32 (the first three carries of Denver’s first second-half drive — 2, 1 and 5 with the game tied 3-3 — and 4 of the 5 rushes on the 70-yard touchdown drive — 8, 2, 2 and 9), and he caught two targets (5 and 7 yards) after three straight weeks with.
Badie carried both 3rd-and-2 snaps (+4 at SF 49, Q1 5:52; +3 at midfield, Q2 6:40 — both converted), caught a 25-yard pass on 3rd-and-3 (Q1 7:46) and a 7-yard catch on the last drive, and ran the successful two-point conversion.
Dobbins carried 2nd-and-1 for +9 (SF 22, Q4 4:50) and Harvey 2nd-and-1 for +2 (SF 42, Q3 1:23);
Late-game usage is partly script-driven (Denver trailed from Q3 4:22), but Dobbins’ 2H carries began with the game tied 3-3 and Harvey’s six first-half targets all came with the game tied.
Harvey played 29 snaps (44%), up 8 points from 24 (36%) in Week 3, and out-snapped Dobbins, who fell from 33 (49%) to 21 (32%); Badie’s 12 snaps (18%) were unchanged from Week 3, and FB Adam Prentice played 7 (11%; Wk3 4, 6%).
Harvey’s 17 official opportunities (Week 3: 9) came with a snap share that rose 8 points, and Dobbins’ 13 came on just 21 snaps.
The Broncos veteran RB has been a major disappointment running behind a relatively good Broncos offensive line. Dobbins ranks second worst in rushing success rate this season. (26%). Almost a zero in the passing game every week. Has not topped 49 rushing yards in any game – and is coming off a season-low in snap share. (31%).
Per Next Gen Stats, Harvey’s 10 catches for 68 yards all led the Broncos despite him running the fifth-most routes (18). His 26.3% target share was the second-highest mark a running back has logged this season, trailing only Bijan Robinson’s 47.6% in Week 1. It was just that kind of day for Denver’s passing offense — Bo Nix didn’t attempt a deep throw (20+ air yards) until there were less than two minutes left in the game. Nix completed just 1 of 9 downfield passes (10+ air yards) for 30 yards.
Nix completed 25 of 42 passes for 214 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions (80.9 rating), was not sacked and carried twice for 10 yards (third-down scrambles of 7 and 3).
His first half was 14-of-24 for 93 yards with a 7-yard scramble; his second half 11-of-18 for 121 yards and the touchdown, with a 3-yard scramble and Badie’s two-point run after the touchdown. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1-for-1 for 13 yards and the touchdown (Waddle, 1st-and-10 from the SF 13).
This year, Nix ranks 3rd-worst in YPA. 6.2 air yards per attempt (second lowest).
Jaylen Waddle caught 5 of 6 targets for 35 yards and a touchdown (14.3% official/adjusted). Snap share: 45 snaps (68%) — down from 73% (49 snaps) in Week 3. He and Courtland Sutton each drew 6 targets, on 45 and 48 snaps. His first half was 4 targets/3 catches/17 yards (2, 6 and 9, plus a deep-left incompletion); his second half 2 targets/2 catches/18 yards — the 13-yard touchdown from the SF 13 (Q4 4:10) and a 5-yard catch on 3rd-and-10 on the last drive.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 red-zone target, 1 catch, 13 yards and a touchdown (Denver’s only red-zone snap); Compared to Week 3 (7 targets/2 catches/10 yards, 20.0% adjusted, 49 snaps/73%; Week 2: 8 catches/138 yards, 31.3%), the share fell 5.7 points and the snap share 5 points (49 to 45 snaps), but he caught 3 more passes for 25 more yards and scored.
Courtland Sutton caught just 1 of 6 targets for 4 yards (14.3% official/adjusted). Snap share: 48 snaps (73%) — down from 87% (58 snaps) in Week 3. He played more snaps than any other Denver receiver. His first half was 4 targets/1 catch/4 yards (a deep-right incompletion on 3rd-and-8, a 4-yard catch on 3rd-and-1 and two short-left incompletions); his second half was 2 targets/0 catches (deep left and deep right on Denver’s last drive).
Compared to Week 3 (7 targets/3 catches/46 yards, 20.0% adjusted, 58 snaps/87%), the share fell 5.7 points and the snap share 14 points (58 to 48 snaps); he caught 2 fewer passes. A major down game with five incompletions (three of them deep); the target count (6) still ranks tied for second on the team, but the efficiency is waning.
Evan Engram caught 1 of 5 targets for 6 yards (11.9% official/adjusted). Snap share: 44 snaps (67%) — up from 60% (40 snaps) in Week 3. Five targets on 44 snaps produced one catch for 6 yards. His first half was 3 targets/0 catches (all incompletions: 1st-and-20, 3rd-and-7 and 3rd-and-5); his second half 2 targets/1 catch/6 yards (an incompletion on 2nd-and-3 and a 6-yard catch on the 4th-and-3 at Q4 1:52). Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/0 catches, 5.7% adjusted, 40 snaps/60%, the target share rose 6.2 points and the snap share 7 points (40 to 44 snaps), but he remained a low-yield target (1 catch for 6 yards). A bigger target role than Week 3 with almost no production; but the 5 targets are the usage signal. He actually tied a season-high in targets with 5 (Week 1) and played a season-high in snaps and routes run.
Marvin Mims caught 1 of 3 targets for 10 yards (7.1% official/adjusted) after being Not Active in Week 3. Snap share: 18 snaps (27%). He started but played fewer offensive snaps than any other Denver wide receiver (Sutton 48, Waddle 45, Troy Franklin 32, Bryant 24). Also lost a fumble on a punt return.
Pat Bryant was injured on his 30-yard catch. Caught all 3 targets for 47 yards.
Bryant (ankle) was listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the 49ers. The second-year WR is expected to miss “a few weeks” after spraining his right ankle. Denver also lost CBs Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss.
Without Bryant, I’d expect more of Engram and WR3 Troy Franklin.
Next four matchups (DEN): Wk5 at LAC (Road) | Wk6 vs SEA (Home, TNF) | Wk7 at ARZ (Road) | Wk8 vs KC (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM).
San Francisco 49ers
Sell Mike Evans
San Francisco gained 358 net yards on 65 plays (35 rushes, 30 pass attempts, no sacks), made 20 first downs, went 6-for-13 on third down, 2-for-3 in the red zone and 2-for-2 on goal-to-go, committed no turnovers and scored 24 points — three touchdowns and a field goal.
Brock Purdy completed 19 of 30 passes for 218 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions (107.4 rating), was not sacked and carried 10 times for 29 yards (eight real carries for 31 yards plus two end-of-game kneel-downs for -2). His first half was 10-of-16 for 89 yards with 5 carries for 17 yards (a 3rd-and-1 sneak for 2, a failed 4th-and-1 sneak, scrambles of 7 and 5 and a 3-yard keeper at the DEN 9); his second half 9-of-14 for 129 yards and both touchdowns (a 1-yard pass to Samuel on 3rd-and-1 and the 56-yard pass to Kittle), with 5 carries for 12 yards (an 11-yard scramble from the DEN 18, a 3rd-and-1 sneak for 2, a 1-yard scramble and two kneel-downs).
Christian McCaffrey was the entire early-down, goal-line, and passing-down backfield: 15 carries for 52 yards and a touchdown plus 5 targets (20 official opportunities — 74% of the 27 true running-back opportunities — against Kaelon Black’s 6 carries/7 true), and every carry from the DEN 1-yard line was his (three carries: 0, 0 and +1 TD). Efficiency was poor, not usage: 3.5 YPC (2.7 YPC without his 14-yard run on 2nd-and-1 at the DEN 49, Q4 13:07), 0.0 YPC on his four red-zone carries (0 net yards), and 3 catches for 18 yards. Usage by half was balanced and not script-driven — 7 first-half carries (32 yards) and 2 targets (2 catches, 9 yards) while San Francisco trailed or was tied, then 8 second-half carries (20 yards, the touchdown) and 3 targets (1 catch for 9 yards) — the first three carries with the game tied 3-3 and the other five with San Francisco leading by 4 to 11. His 12-yard (Q1 13:33), 10-yard (3rd-and-1, Q2 3:04) and 14-yard (Q4 13:07) runs were his only carries longer than 3 yards; the other 12 carries gained 16 yards combined (1.3 per carry). Black was the clear No. 2 with 3 carries in each half and no target: three of his six carries came on 3rd- or 4th-and-1 (0, +2, +3) and the others were a 1st-and-10 run for 1 (SF 32), a 2nd-and-6 run for 5 (SF 16) and a 1st-and-10 run for 2 from the DEN 11.
Kyle Juszczyk (fullback) caught both targets for 28 yards (12 and 16) before leaving injured at Q4 14:03 — expected to miss some time.
Third-and-short/power usage: San Francisco used Purdy for two 3rd-and-1 sneaks (+2, +2, both converted) and a failed 4th-and-1 sneak at the DEN 34 (Q2 14:30); McCaffrey got 3rd-and-1 carries of 0 (SF 21, Q2 11:18, punt) and +10 (SF 47, Q2 3:04, converted), and Black got three (0, +2 on 4th-and-1, +3). Late-game usage is partly script-driven (San Francisco led 17-6 and 24-14 late and kneeled twice), but McCaffrey’s first-half carries and targets came before any script effect.
Snaps: McCaffrey played 49 snaps (74%), down 9 points from 45 (83%) in Week 3, and Black 17 (26%), up from 8 (15%); the two backs’ snaps sum to 66, San Francisco’s team total, and Juszczyk played 27 (41%, down from 30/56%). McCaffrey’s 74% snap share equals his 74% share of the 27 true running-back opportunities (20 official), and Black’s 26% of snaps against 7 true opportunities (26%) is the same match.
The target tree re-formed around an active Mike Evans (26.7% official/adjusted, a team-high 8 targets, up 4.5 points from Week 3 when he left in the second quarter), with Deebo Samuel (20.0%) and George Kittle (20.0%, down 5.9 points) next and McCaffrey at 16.7% (Week 3: 18.5%).
Evans caught 5 of 8 targets for 76 yards, no touchdown (a 26.7% official/adjusted target share, the team lead). Snap share: 39 snaps (59%) — up from 33% (18 snaps) in Week 3, when he left in the second quarter.
His 8 targets, the team high, came on fewer snaps than Kittle (60) or Samuel (44) had for 6 apiece. No penalty-erased target. His first half was 5 targets/3 catches/50 yards (18, 24, and 8) and two incompletions; his second half was 3 targets/2 catches/26 yards (9 and a 17-yard catch on 1st-and-10 from the DEN 18 that ended at the DEN 1). Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone targets, 1 catch, 17 yards — an incompletion on 3rd-and-5 at the DEN 6 (Q2 1:43) and the 17-yard catch from the DEN 18 (Q4 10:18); no touchdown but tackled at the DEN 1.
Evans entered the game playing with broken ribs, and it sure looked like it, given he seemed to be grimacing after every catch he made. Absolute warrior. But it remains to be seen how long Evans can keep this up. I would definitely be looking to sell high rather than buy a player like Evans, especially with a matchup like Seattle coming up next.
Samuel caught 5 of 6 targets for 26 yards and a touchdown (20.0% official/adjusted) and carried 3 times for 44 yards (22, 20, and 2). Snap share: 44 snaps (67%) — down from 76% (41 snaps) in Week 3. His nine total opportunities (6 targets, 3 carries) came on 44 snaps. His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/11 yards (7 and 4, plus an incompletion) and two runs for 42 yards (22 on 1st-and-10 at the SF 35 and 20 on 2nd-and-10 at the DEN 43); his second half 3 targets/3 catches/15 yards (6 to the DEN 1, the 1-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-1 and an 8-yard catch) and one 2-yard run. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone targets, 2 catches, 7 yards and a touchdown — a 6-yard catch from the DEN 7 and the 1-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-1 from the DEN 1 (Q3 4:22).
Compared to Week 3 (0 targets, an 80-yard lateral touchdown, 41 snaps/76%), he went from no official targets to a 20.0% share and added 3 carries for 44 yards, while his snap share fell 9 points.
Kittle caught 4 of 6 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown (20.0% official/adjusted). Snap share: 60 snaps (91%) — up from 85% (46 snaps) in Week 3. Six targets on 60 snaps (one every ten) is the lowest targets-per-snap rate of San Francisco’s three main pass-catchers (Evans 8 on 39, Samuel 6 on 44). His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/7 yards (3 and 4, plus a deep-left incompletion); his second half 3 targets/2 catches/63 yards (a 7-yard catch and the 56-yard touchdown on 2nd-and-8 from the SF 44, Q4 2:25), plus an incompletion with an illegal-shift flag declined (Q3 14:15).
The only touchdown was the 56-yard score. Compared to Week 3 (7 targets/6 catches/82 yards/2 touchdowns, 25.9% adjusted, 46 snaps/85%), targets fell from 7 to 6, the share by 5.9 points, and the touchdown count from 2 to 1, while his snap share rose 6 points — a 56-yard play was 80% of his yards.
Next four matchups (SF): Wk5 at SEA (Road) | Wk6 vs WAS (Home, MNF) | Wk7 at ATL (Road) | Wk8 BYE
Washington Commanders
Add Rachaad White & Sell Terry McLaurin & Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Marcus Mariota went 3-of-4 for 46 yards with 1 sack (6 yards) and a 35-yard scramble — the longest run of the game — before the Q1 sack injured him; he was ruled “Out of the game” at the start of the third quarter
Athan Kaliakmanis went 15-of-33 for 186 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 sack for 9 yards (60.9 rating), and ran 3 times for 16 yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt carried 9 times for 15 yards (1.7 YPC) and caught 2 of 4 targets for 35 yards (a 10.8% official/10.0% adjusted target share). Snap share: 29 snaps (45%) — down from 39 (57%) in Week 3; 13 carries-plus-targets on those 29 snaps (0.45 per snap, the highest rate of Washington’s four backs). His first half (6 carries, 11 yards; 2 targets, 1 catch, 35 yards) carried most of his production, including a 35-yard catch to Indianapolis.
With Rachaad White inactive and Washington trailing for most of the second half, the Commanders’ backfield still deployed a four-back committee that produced very little — Croskey-Merritt gained 15 rushing yards (1.7 YPC) with four Indianapolis tackles for loss (9 yards) accounting for much of the damage. The fantasy-relevant backfield production came from the quarterbacks — together 51 of Washington’s 100 rushing yards) and from Austin Ekeler (4 carries for 29 yards, 7.3 YPC, most of it on three first-half carries for 22 yards). Croskey-Merritt’s best work was as a receiver — his 35-yard catch to the Indianapolis 7 tied Mariota’s 35-yard scramble for the longest play of Washington’s first-half drive.
Ekeler carried 4 times for 29 yards (7.3 YPC) and caught 1 of 2 official targets (3 true) for 11 yards (a 5.4% official/7.5% adjusted target share). Snap share: 17 snaps (27%)
Snaps and touches: Croskey-Merritt led the group, followed by Ekeler with 17 (27%), Kaytron Allen 12 (19%) and Craig Reynolds 6 (9%) — together 64, the team total, so no net overlap — and the three backs behind him combined for 35 snaps (55%), more than his 29. By opportunities (carries plus official targets), Croskey-Merritt had 13 of the backs’ 24 (54.2%) on 45% of the snaps (0.45 per snap), Ekeler 6 (25.0%) on 27% (0.35 per snap), Allen 3 (12.5%) on 19% (0.25), and Reynolds 2 (8.3%) on 9% (0.33).
Allen had 1 red-zone carry for +2 yards (2nd-and-7 at the Indianapolis 7, Q1). Allen has two GL carries this season (down from his season-high snap rate of 19%).
White is expected to resume practicing this week. Add him if he got dropped. JCM and this run game continue to struggle on the ground. Allen is getting more involved. Not good for Bill, who has been unable to surpass 2.0 YPC in the last two games (while his rushing yards have dropped in four consecutive contests).
Stefon Diggs caught 5 of 9 official targets for 35 yards (a 24.3% official target share), but his true line is 10 targets, 6 catches, 56 yards (25.0% adjusted share) after a Q4 21-yard catch was wiped out by his own offensive pass interference. His first half (4 targets, 4 catches, 25 yards) was far more efficient than the second (5 targets, 1 catch, 10 yards; 6 targets, 2 catches, 31 yards true). Compared to Week 3 (7 targets, 4 catches, 33 yards, 21.9%), his share rose modestly (21.9% → 25.0% adjusted) with McLaurin out, but the yardage was virtually identical — a high-volume, low-yardage role (3.9 yards per target on the official line). Snap share: 42 snaps (66%) — up from 41 (59%) in Week 3: essentially the same snap count in a smaller team total (69 to 64), second among Washington’s receivers behind Antonio Williams (44, 69%).
Antonio Williams caught 3 of 8 official targets for 21 yards (a 21.6% official target share) — but his true line is 9 targets, 4 receptions, 108 yards and 1 touchdown (a 22.5% adjusted share), with a Q3 87-yard touchdown erased by an Illegal Shift Penalty. His first half (3 targets, 1 catch, 5 yards) was quiet; his second-half true line (6 targets, 3 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD) is where the production was. One of his second-half targets was the Q3 interception. Compared to Week 3 (4 targets, 2 catches, 15 yards, 12.5%), his volume more than doubled (4 → 8 official, 9 true) and his adjusted share rose by 10 points — a clear new top-two role with McLaurin out. Snap share: 44 snaps (69%) — up from 28 (41%) in Week 3, the largest gain (+28 points) among Washington’s pass-catchers and the most snaps of any Washington wide receiver.
Dyami Brown caught 3 of 4 targets for 65 yards (a 10.8% official/10.0% adjusted target share) — the second-half stat line (3 targets, 2 catches, 56 yards) included a 48-yard deep catch and an 8-yard 4th-and-2 conversion; his first-half line was 1 target, 1 catch, 9 yards. He started in 13-personnel as the lone WR. Snap share: 36 snaps (56%) — up from 21 (30%) in Week 3, but the fewest of Washington’s four main wide receivers (Williams 44, Diggs 42, T.Burks 38). Compared to Week 3 (1 target, 0 receptions, 3.1%, 21 snaps/30%), a large step up in volume and production — Washington’s most productive deep threat of the week.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (inactive for the two weeks prior) returned to action, catching 2 of 4 targets for 5 yards (a 10.8% official/10.0% adjusted target share) — all 4 targets, both catches and all 5 yards in the first half, with nothing after halftime. He started in 13-personnel. Snap share: 37 snaps (58%), the most of Washington’s tight ends (Bates 27, Sinnott 24, Yankoff 7).
Treylon Burks caught 1 of 3 targets for 47 yards and a touchdown (an 8.1% official/7.5% adjusted share) — all three targets came in the second half, and the touchdown was Washington’s only one. Snap share: 38 snaps (59%) — up from 25 (36%) in Week 3; 3 targets on 38 snaps. Compared to Week 3 (2 targets, 2 receptions, 13 yards, 1 TD, 6.3%), his volume ticked up by one target, and he scored for a second straight week — a 47-yard deep-ball touchdown.
Case to sell Terry McLauin coming off his hamstring injury?
I think there is. He’s been better with Marcus Mariota since the start of last season than with Daniels. Coming back from a hamstring injury. Doesn’t have an elite target share.
On the year, McLaurin owns a 22.4% target rate. That ranks 40th among qualifying WRs. Same number as Brian Thomas Jr.
Stefon Diggs has a 30% target rate per route run this season (8th). Antonio Williams has a 27% target rate per route run this season.
TMC’s best game this season was without Daniels in Week 3 versus Seattle.
As I wrote last week via the FantasyPros with-or-without tool: targets, yards, and TDs all increased with Mariota under center. Per Next Gen Stats: TMC’s points-per-game average has ballooned to 11.9 with Mariota at QB since the start of 2025, up from 5.7 with Daniels in that span.
The goal is for Jayden Daniels (elbow) to have a full week of practice and start on Sunday.
Coach Dan Quinn confirmed on Monday that Marcus Mariota has been diagnosed with a sprained MCL in his right knee.
If Daniels goes down again, possible McLaurin wouldn’t have Mariota to fall back on.
Think I’d trade him straight up for Jalen Coker right now.
Next four matchups (WAS): Wk5 vs NYG (Home) | Wk6 at SF (Road) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs PHI (Home, Sunday Night Football, 11/1, 8:20 PM).
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Josh Downs
Jonathan Taylor handled 20 of Indianapolis’ 26 running-back carries (77%), scored twice, and dominated the touches in a way the 3-for-4 receiving line (1 catch for 2 yards, all first half) undersells — he was a pure rushing engine this week. He played 47 of Indianapolis’ 66 offensive snaps (71%) against Seth McGowan’s 19 (29%).
McGowan’s 6 carries (31 yards) and 2 targets, 1 catch on 19 snaps (29%) were a real complementary role — 4 carries and both targets came in the first half. McGowan also converted a 4th-and-1 at the Indianapolis 48 for 8 yards.
Daniel Jones’ production fell sharply from Week 3 (24-of-36, 235 yards, 1 TD to 19-of-34, 143 yards, 0 TD, and he took a fumble loss and an interception.
Jones ranks 3rd-worst EPA/dropback this season. Had they not been up against a third-string rookie QB…the results of this game could have been dramatically different.
The Colts’ target distribution flattened dramatically with Keean Allen inactive — no pass-catcher topped 6 targets or an 18% target share (compared to Josh Downs’ 30.6% and Tyler Warren’s 27.8% in Week 3), with lesser-known names absorbing volume.
Laquon Treadwell caught 5 of 6 targets for 42 yards (a team-high-tied 17.6% target share), with his second half (3 targets, 3 catches, 31 yards) more productive than his first (3 targets, 2 catches, 11 yards). He caught the 11-yard and 7-yard passes that moved the Colts to the Washington 5 and 4 on their two Q3/Q4 scoring drives. Snap share: 56 snaps (85%) — up from 56 (79%) in Week 3 (the same snap count in a smaller team total). Compared to Week 3 (1 target, 1 reception, 20 yards, 2.8% adjusted share), his target volume rose sharply (1 → 6) on that same snap count — the biggest beneficiary of Allen’s absence in Indianapolis’ receiver room, and he drew the start in 12-personnel alongside Josh Downs.
Downs caught just 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards (an 11.8% target share) — 3 targets and all 3 catches in the first half, 1 incompletion in the second. Compared to Week 3 (11 targets, 5 receptions, 77 yards, 30.6% adjusted share, 68% snaps), his target volume collapsed (11 → 4) and share fell by more than 18 points even with Allen (9 Week 3 targets) out — a significant, concerning step back in role in a game where the volume went elsewhere. Snap share: 51 snaps (77%) — up from 48 (68%) in Week 3, so the target drop (11 → 4) came with more snaps, not fewer.
Buy low. Full-time role was still intact. His air yards per target just dropped so much in Week 4 (0.8) – it looks like a complete outlier performance.
Tyler Warren caught all 5 of his targets (a 14.7% target share) for 41 yards, with a slightly stronger second half (3 targets, 3 catches, 20 yards) than first (2/2/21). He was perfect at catching the ball, but his volume dropped by half from Week 3 (10 targets, 9 rec, 55 yards, 27.8%, 94% snaps) — still the second-most reliable tight-end target in the offense, but no longer the team’s target-share leader. Snap share: 56 snaps (85%) — down from 67 (94%) in Week 3: his targets halved (10 → 5) while his snaps fell by 11.
Ashton Dulin caught 3 of 6 targets for 29 yards (a 17.6% target share, tied for the team lead) — every one of those targets came in the first half; he saw zero second-half targets.
CB Sauce Gardner, who aligned as the right outside cornerback on 58 snaps (95%) allowed four receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown on five targets in coverage against the Commanders in Week 4, the most yards allowed in a game by Gardner in his career (NGS).
After once being a CB to avoid in fantasy matchups…the Colts No. 1 CB has been getting cooked by the likes of Xavier Hutchinson, Dyami Brown, and Treylon Burks in the last two games. Woof.
Next four matchups (IND): Wk5 at PIT (Road) | Wk6 vs TEN (Home) | Wk7 at MIN (Road) | Wk8 at JAX (Road, Sun 11/1, 1:00 PM).
New England Patriots
Add Efton Chism & Buy TreyVeon Henderson
Per Next Gen Stats, the Patriots used motion on 75.3% of their plays against the Bills, their highest rate in a game since Week 15 of 2023, after using motion on 56.1% of their plays in Weeks 1-3. New England posted a 49.3% success rate, its highest in a game this season.
Drake Maye went 22-of-37 for 269 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception (97.7 rating), was sacked once for 7 yards, and rushed 8 times for 54 yards (true 9/64).
Those rushing yards were the 4th-most in a game in his career. Maye has 3 games with at least 50 rushing yards and 2 touchdown passes since 2025, tied for the 2nd-most in the NFL behind only Jaxson Dart (NGS).
His first half (8-of-15, 111 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 71.8) included the pick that gave Buffalo three points; his second half (14-of-22, 158 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 115.3) won the game, culminating in the 23-yard Chism touchdown and the two-point conversion to Stevenson. He fumbled three times (one lost, on the Q2 sack-strip) and added a 26-yard scramble that ended at the BUF 1. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 1 official red-zone carry (the Q3 aborted snap, 0 yards); two red-zone touchdown passes to Doubs (the third touchdown pass, to Chism, began at the BUF 23). Compared to Week 3 (14-of-25, 199 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 carries/18 yards, true 5/39 with a called-back 21-yard TD, 3 sacks), this was more volume, three touchdowns, and no repeat of the multi-interception game. The rushing floor (8-9 carries, 54-64 yards) plus positive regression in red-zone put Maye back into all starting fantasy lineups. He just needs to do a better job cleaning up the turnovers (he has 9 this season – most in the NFL).
New England outgained Buffalo 405 to 340 net yards, ran 73 plays to 54, won first downs 26-19, and held the ball for 33:41 to 26:19 (including 11:26 of the third quarter to Buffalo’s 3:34), but trailed at halftime.
Backfield conclusion: Rhamondre Stevenson led the snaps; Henderson led the carries. Stevenson played 50 of New England’s 76 snaps (66%, up from 52% in Week 3) for 13 carries for 47 yards and 5 targets, catching three for 27 yards (18 opportunities); Henderson played 28 (37%, unchanged from Week 3) for 14 carries for 42 yards and 2 targets (16 opportunities). Henderson out-carried Stevenson 14 to 13 (and 9 to 7 in the second half) on 22 fewer snaps; the two backs’ 78 combined snaps exceed New England’s 76, so they shared the field on at least two snaps. The Week 3 flag about Henderson’s second-half disappearance did not repeat — he ran 9 times after halftime — and his snap share held at 37% while his carries rose from 8 to 14. Stevenson also started and scored the touchdown (1-yard rushing), had five targets, and caught the two-point conversion. On the numbers, Henderson’s role is carry volume on a minority of the snaps; Stevenson’s is the majority of the snaps with the receiving work and the finishing.
Rhamondre is still the lead and top dog in the backfield. Worth noting that he seemed to bang up his knee toward the end of the win in Week 4…so monitor his injury status entering Week 5.
Hendo leading the team in raw carries is “not” nothing…but he’s still not seeing enough of the high-value touches we want for fantasy purposes.
He has 14-plus carries in 2 of his 3 games played this season, but just one catch (3 targets) and two red-zone carries.
Maybe a buy-low opportunity for Henderson if this Stevenson injury is more serious.
The backfield was a Henderson-carries/Stevenson-snaps-and-targets split — Stevenson 50 snaps (66%), 13 carries, 5 targets; Henderson 28 snaps (37%), 14 carries, 2 targets — with Stevenson holding the scores (a 1-yard touchdown and the two-point catch).
Romeo Doubs caught 6 of 9 targets for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns (a 24.3% official/24.3% adjusted target share, the team lead). Snap share: 49 snaps (64%) — down from 46 (73%) in Week 3 (more snaps, lower share: New England ran 76 snaps against 63); his 49 snaps tied Henry for the most among New England’s wide receivers and tight ends. His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/29 yards and a touchdown (the third target was the Q2 interception), and his second half was 6 targets/4 catches/29 yards and a touchdown. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 3 red-zone targets for 3 catches, 25 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Hunter Henry caught 5 of 5 targets for 62 yards (a 13.5% official/13.5% adjusted share), 3/3/36 in the first half and 2/2/26 in the second, including a 20-yard play that began as a Maye snap fumble. Snap share: 49 snaps (64%) — down from 44 (70%) in Week 3 (more snaps, lower share), level with Doubs for the team’s most among wide receivers and tight ends. Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/1 catch/5 yards, 6.1% adjusted, 44 snaps/70%), more than double the share. Takeaway: a reliable move-the-chains tight end (5-for-5), with no red-zone target. Routes were healthy at a 74% clip.
Mack Hollins, Eli Raridon and Charles Woods all left with injuries.
Hollins caught 3 of 4 targets for 53 yards (a 10.8% official/10.8% adjusted target share), 3 targets/2 catches/34 yards in the first half and 1 target/1 catch/19 yards in the second before being injured.
Head coach Mike Vrabel said that he expects to know more about Hollins ‘ calf injury later Monday, and the Patriots are uncertain if the wideout will be able to practice “for a couple days,” Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston reports.
Worth noting that Efton Chism ran more routes than Kyle Williams and nearly matched Demario Douglas in snaps played due to Hollins’ injury.
Chism caught 2 of 4 targets for 42 yards and the game-winning one-handed 23-yard touchdown (a 10.8% official/10.8% adjusted share), 1 first-half target (the replay-created incompletion) and 3 second-half targets (a 19-yard catch, the 23-yard touchdown, an incompletion). Snap share: 34 snaps (45%) — up from 16 (25%) in Week 3, a 20-point rise on 4 targets. The team/coaching staff continues to rave about Chism, and I think he continues to get more involved.
Next four matchups (NE): Wk5 vs LV | Wk6 vs NYJ | Wk7 at CHI | Wk8 at MIA (Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM).
Buffalo Bills
Add Keon Coleman & Buy Dalton Kincaid
New England dominated usage (35 rushes, 37 pass attempts, 73 plays) and finished 3-for-3 in the red zone (2-for-2 goal-to-go) and 2-for-2 on fourth down. Buffalo was efficient but thin — 54 plays, 6-for-12 on third down, 2-for-4 in the red zone (two field goals) and 2-for-3 on goal-to-go — and lost the game in the last two minutes.
Buffalo led 26-21 with 4:27 left and lost 29-26 — 2-for-4 in the red zone with two field goals, a lost fumble and an interception, and a 33-pass-attempt game.
Josh Allen went 23-of-33 for 253 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception (89.6 rating), was sacked once for 4 yards, and rushed 5 times for 4 yards and a 2-yard touchdown (one carry was an aborted snap credited at 0 yards; a Q4 scramble lost 3).
James Cook carried 12 times for 75 yards (6.3 YPC) and a touchdown (13/76 true) and caught 2 of 2 targets for 8 yards (a 6.1% official/5.6% adjusted target share). Snap share: 35 snaps (59%) — down from 44 (67%) in Week 3; carries plus targets fell from 27 on 44 snaps to 14 on 35. His first half was 6 carries/16 yards and a touchdown (7/17 true) and 1 target/1 catch/6 yards; his second half was 6 carries/59 yards and 1 catch/2 yards. Red-zone/goal-line usage: 4 red-zone carries for +11 yards and a touchdown (-1 at the NE 19; +8 TD at the NE 8; 0 at the NE 6; +4 to the NE 2); no red-zone targets; none in the second half; the touchdown on the same series at the NE 2 went to Allen. Compared to Week 3 (24 carries/154 yards/1 TD, 3 targets/1 catch/4 yards, 44 snaps/67%), carries halved and yardage dropped by about half, though the per-carry average held and his snap share fell by 8 points.
Khalil Shakir caught 7 of 8 targets for 82 yards (a 24.2% official/22.2% adjusted target share), 6 targets/6 catches/76 yards in the first half (the 51-yard catch to the NE 6 and the 8-yard catch he fumbled) and 2 targets/1 catch/6 yards in the second. Red-zone usage: one target (7 yards, NE 15, Q2). Snap share: 45 snaps (76%) — up from 48 (73%) in Week 3 (fewer snaps, higher share: Buffalo ran 59 snaps against 66); he and Keon Coleman (46 snaps, 78%) were Buffalo’s two near-every-down receivers. He fumbled once (lost, Q2 :23).
Keon Coleman started and caught 6 of 7 official targets (8 true) for 116 yards and a 34-yard touchdown (a 21.2% official/22.2% adjusted share). Snap share: 46 snaps (78%) — up from 32 (48%) in Week 3, the most snaps of any Buffalo skill player. His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/35 yards (4 true, counting the illegal-use-of-hands-erased incompletion at the NE 6); his second half 4 targets/4 catches/81 yards and the touchdown (22, 24 and 34 yards and a 1-yard catch). Red-zone usage: 1 official red-zone target (an incompletion on 2nd-and-1 at the NE 2, Q2) plus 1 erased red-zone target (NE 6). Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/1 catch/37 yards, 7.4% adjusted, 32 snaps/48%), more than three times the target share and a 30-point rise in snap share given the injury to DJ Moore.
Moore (shoulder) is dealing with an injury that isn’t considered long-term.
Josh Palmer caught 1 of 4 targets for 3 yards (a 12.1% official/11.1% adjusted share) — a first-half incompletion, a third-quarter incompletion, a 3-yard catch and the fourth-quarter interception target — and was also the intended receiver on the failed two-point try.
Per Next Gen Stats, Dalton Kincaid set season-lows with his 31 snaps, 17 routes, two targets, one catch and seven yards — his second-lowest since his rookie season in 2023 — on Sunday for his second consecutive fantasy dud. After racking up 40.5 points in his first two games (TE2), he has just 5.5 in Weeks 3 and 4 (TE44 after Sunday’s slate) with five targets, three catches, 45 yards and a fumble. He still leads the Bills with his 15 catches (tied with Khalil Shakir) and 270 yards (most among TEs), while his 3.2 yards per route ranks second among qualified TEs and his 14.2 yards per target leads all qualified TEs.
His Week 4 deployment cannot be replicated in good faith. And HC Joe Brady acknowledged that in his post-game and Monday presser – S/O Coach Speak Index:
“I gotta be better. There’s no reason Dalton Kincaid should have two targets.”
“The ball needs to find Dalton Kincaid a little more. In order for him to do that, he has to run more routes, and I’ve gotta do a better job of getting that to him when the opportunities are there. Any time Dalton comes away with two targets — and one of them being on the last drive of the game — obviously, I didn’t do a good enough job.”
Squeaky wheel game coming on Monday Night Football.
Dee Alford (DB) was injured in Q3 (9:33), did not return recorded. Ed Oliver (DL) also got hurt again.
Next four matchups (BUF): Wk5 at LAR | Wk6 at LV | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs BLT (Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM)
Miami Dolphins
Hold Ollie Gordon & Add Chris Bell & Malik Washington & Greg Dulcich
Miami’s offense was 37 plays, 198 net yards, 8 first downs and 2-for-9 on third down; 115 of those 198 yards came on its two scoring drives (a 7-play, 60-yard field-goal drive built on Ollie Gordon’s 53-yard run, and a 4-play, 55-yard touchdown drive of two 17-yard Malik Washington catches and Gordon runs of 9 and 12). Possession was 20:49 to 39:11; Miami never led and trailed 9-0 at the half. Miami was 1-for-2 in the red zone and never reached goal-to-go.
Malik Willis threw only 17 passes (9 completions, 85 yards, no touchdown, no interception) and ran twice (3 true carries, 22 true yards, once erased by Miami’s own holding) compared to 36 attempts and 9 carries in Week 3. His lost fumble (a replay-reversed sack-fumble at Q2 5:50) was Miami’s only turnover, and Minnesota punted three plays later.
Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions (67.0 rating), was sacked twice (-8 officially; the play-by-play prints -8 and -9), and carried twice for 11 yards
The backfield changed: Jaylen Wright started, but Ollie Gordon led (9 carries/100 yards/1 TD plus 2 targets) with De’Von Achane out. Gordon’s second-half workload (7 of Miami’s 9 carries) and 53-yard run built the line; Wright had 5 carries for 7 yards (1.4 YPC; long 7) and two muffed kickoff catches; Gordon played 22 of 39 snaps (56%, down from 84% in Week 3) to Wright’s 12 (31%).
Gordon’s 11 touches came on 22 snaps. His first half was 2 carries/15 yards (a 12-yard run on 2nd-and-7 and a 3-yard run) and 2 short-left catches for no gain (Q1 6:38, 5:55, both at the MIA 33); his second half was 7 carries/85 yards and the touchdown (5, 53, 2, 2, 9, 12 and, in Q4, 2) with no target. Without the 53-yard run (3rd-and-5, Q3 14:08), he had 8 carries for 47 yards (5.9 YPC). Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone carries for +14 yards and a touchdown (+2 from the MIN 11, Q3 13:28; +12 from the MIN 12, Q3 :15).
Gordon was the lead back and the touchdown scorer even though Wright started. 7 of 9 second-half carries and the touchdown run from the 12 showcase Gordon’s status as the preferred back.
HC Jeff Hafley also didn’t close the door on using other backs in future weeks, saying other guys will get touches when the offense can run more plays.
The target tree was compact: Malik Washington (29.4%), Kevin Coleman (23.5%) and Chris Bell (17.6%) took 12 of 17 attempts, Greg Dulcich (a Week 3 starter with 8 true targets) had none, and Caleb Douglas was not active again.
Washington caught all 5 of his targets for 67 yards (13.4 per catch; a 29.4% official/adjusted target share, the team lead), carried twice for 3 yards, and returned a punt for no gain. Snap share: 34 snaps (87%) — up from 63 (86%) in Week 3 (up 1 point). His first half was 2 targets/2 catches/27 yards (16 and 11); his second half 3 targets/3 catches/40 yards — 6, and the 17- and 17-yard catches on the 4-play touchdown drive. Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone target; 1 red-zone carry.
Compared to Week 3 (10 official/11 true targets, 28.2% adjusted, 63 snaps/86%), targets fell from 11 true to 5, but the share rose 1.2 points to 29.4% on Miami’s 17-attempt day, with his snap share steady (86% to 87%). Washington remained the target leader and a 100% catcher, with the volume capped by the 17 Dolphins pass attempts.
Through 4 games, Washington owns a 27% target share (6th highest in the NFL).
Chris Bell was targeted 3 times and caught none (a 17.6% official/adjusted share; Week 3: 7 targets/17.9%, 52 snaps/71%) — all three were deep third-down throws (3rd-and-9 deep left, 3rd-and-4 deep right with an illegal-touch-pass call on Bell, 3rd-and-8 deep middle). Bell had a long TD called back after stepping out of bounds before he caught the ball. Hence the final goose egg in the box score. But snaps went way up, which is a positive for his Week 5 outlook.
Dulcich faces the Bengals this week. But his role TANKED in Week 4. Just 9 routes and sub-50 % route participation (zero targets). But Brian Flores’ defenses tend to make offenses do very weird things. Tread lightly with Dulcich. But don’t bury him completely given how elite this matchup is.
Just note that Miami has a Week 6 bye week. Don’t overinvest in any of these guys if you are just going to drop them after this week.
Next four matchups (MIA): Wk5 vs CIN (Home) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at NYJ (Road) | Wk8 vs NE (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM).
Minnesota Vikings
Add T.J. Hockenson & Sell Aaron Jones & Add/Buy Jordan Mason
Minnesota gained 336 net yards, made 20 first downs and ran 72 plays — and scored 15 points on five Will Reichard field goals, with no touchdown.
Kyler Murray completed 27 of 37 passes for 247 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions (90.7 rating), was sacked 4 times for 34 yards and carried 6 times for 16 yards (three scrambles for 21 yards — 8, 6 and 7 — plus three kneel-downs for -5). True line: 30-of-41 for 268 yards once the four penalty-erased pass plays are added (two completions to Addison, one to Claiborne, one incompletion to Jennings); no interception was erased, so his true interception count is 0. His first half was 11-of-19 for 112 yards with 3 sacks for 23 yards (74.9 rating) and a scramble for 8 and 6; his second half was 16-of-18 for 135 yards with 1 sack for 11 yards (a scramble for 7 and the three kneel-downs).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 5-of-6 for 25 yards in the red zone (Hockenson 3-for-3/17, Jones 2-for-2/8, one unnamed incompletion at Q2 :10), no touchdown pass, no red-zone scramble, and three kneel-downs from the MIA 2, 4 and 6 to end the game. Compared to Week 3 (15-of-29, 168 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 2 carries/17 yards in his first start back from the concussion protocol), his attempts rose from 29 to 37, his completion rate from 52% to 73%, and his yards from 168 to 247, with no touchdown pass or interception either way (Week 3: one of each) and three real scrambles (21 yards) in place of two (17).
Murray wasn’t great in this game by any means – but he did improve as the game progressed. He has a connection with tight end T.J. Hockenson as his security blanket.
Aaron Jones carried 20 times for 94 yards (4.7 YPC, long 19) and caught 4 of 8 targets for 34 yards (a 21.6% official/19.5% adjusted target share). He started. Snap share: 57 snaps (73%) — down from 47 (80%) in Week 3. His 28 official opportunities came on 57 snaps (49%), while the two other backs combined for 4 on 21 snaps. True line: 22 carries for 100 yards (the Q1 10:51 run for 5 and the Q2 11:51 run for 1 were erased by Miami’s defensive offside) and 8 true targets (the official 20/94 already includes his Q1 9:44 run erased by a holding, credited at 2 yards). His first half was 10 carries/42 yards and 5 targets/1 catch/15 yards (4 incomplete, a 15-yard catch on 3rd-and-2); his second half 10 carries/52 yards and 3 targets/3 catches/19 yards (11, 5 and 3 yards — the last a fumble).
It was another workhorse day for Jones, who the team continues to lean on. And it actually makes sense for Minnesota to do this. They know that Jordan Mason will come back in Week 7, and that they have a Week 6 bye week. So load up Jones with all that he can handle in the short term. But it also makes Jones a quintessential sell-high because this kind of touch total is not sustainable for an older RB like Jones.
Demond Claiborne carried 3 times for 12 yards (1, 3 and 8 yards, all in the second half) with no official target (a 0.0% official/2.4% adjusted share on one true target, a -1-yard catch erased by a Vikings offensive pass interference at Q3 9:01). Snap share: 9 snaps (12%) — up from 3 (5%) in Week 3; he played 3 fewer snaps than DeeJay Dallas (12, 15%) but had all three of the backups’ carries (Dallas had none).
Per Next Gen Stats, TJ Hockenson scored 24.9 fantasy points in Week 4 against the Dolphins, his highest output since Week 10 of 2023 and seventh-highest scoring game of his career.
With Justin Jefferson (ankle) out of the lineup, Hockenson stepped up as the primary target in the Vikings’ passing game, tying a career-high by catching all 13 of his targets for 119 yards, his fourth-most ever. His 31 routes ranked third on the team, but he still caught nearly half of Murray’s completions (48.1%) on the day, as no other Viking caught more than four passes or registered more than 52 yards. His 39.4% target share was the third-highest by a tight end this season. Might have also seen an expanded role not just because Jefferson was out…but because No. 2 TE Josh Oliver also did not play in Week 4.
Great matchup on deck versus the Saints.
Jordan Addison caught 4 of 6 official targets for 52 yards (a 16.2% official/19.5% adjusted target share), and 8 true targets, 6 true catches and 74 true yards once two nullified completions are added: a 21-yard deep-left catch erased by an illegal-formation call on Minnesota (Q1 :56) and a 1-yard catch erased by his own illegal shift (Q2 11:21). Snap share: 75 snaps (96%) — down from 58 (98%) in Week 3. He was on the field for 75 of 78 snaps for 6 official targets (8 true). His first half was 3 official/5 true targets, 2/4 catches and 21/43 yards; his second half 3 targets/2 catches/31 yards (a 4-yard catch and a 27-yard catch on 2nd-and-10 at the MIN 33, Q4 4:22, plus a deep-left incompletion). No red-zone target. Compared to Week 3 (9 official/10 true targets, 5 catches, 90 yards, a 41-yard touchdown, 31.3% adjusted, 58 of 59 snaps), the adjusted share fell 11.8 points (on a snap share that slipped only 2 points, 98% to 96%), the touchdown disappeared, and the yards fell from 90 to 52 (74 true) as Hockenson’s share rose.
Jordan Mason remains out with a thumb fracture and will not be eligible for a return from the injured reserve list (IR) until the team’s Week 7 contest against the Indianapolis Colts on October 25.
OG Donovan Jackson was ruled out with a knee injury. He will miss the rest of the season. OT Christian Darrisaw exited with a head injury and has entered the concussion protocol.
Next four matchups (MIN): Wk5 at NO (Road) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 vs IND (Home) | Wk8 at DET (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM).
Carolina Panthers
Buy Jalen Coker
Bryce Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (110.7 rating), was sacked 3 times for 11 yards and carried 3 times for 3 yards (a 7-yard scramble and two kneel-downs of −1 and −3).
The target tree was concentrated on one receiver: Tetairoa McMillan took 18 of 44 adjusted attempts (40.9%; 16 of 41 official, 39.0%) in a career outing on Sunday Night Football.
McMillan caught 14 of 16 official targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns (39.0% official, 40.9% adjusted — the team lead; 18 true targets, 15 true catches, 203 true yards). Snap share: 67 snaps (89%) — down from 73 (95%) in Week 3. True line: an 11-yard catch (Q4 3:26, 2nd-and-9 at the CAR 37) was erased by an Illegal Formation, and a deep-right incompletion (Q3 11:25, 1st-and-15 at the DET 42) was erased by a DPI (17 yards). His first half was 10 targets/9 catches/147 yards and a 32-yard touchdown (10, 12, 9, 21, 26, 32, 11, 8 and 18, with a deep-left incompletion at Q2 1:20); his second half 6 targets/5 catches/45 yards and a 10-yard touchdown (5, 10, 8, 18 and 4, with an incompletion at Q4 6:22) — 8 true targets/6 true catches/56 true yards with the two erased plays.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target, the 10-yard touchdown from the DET 10 (Q3 9:37); the 32-yard touchdown was snapped at the DET 32 (not red zone). All three of his third-down catches (10, 26, and 18 yards) converted. Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/2 catches/17 yards, 10.2% adjusted, 73 snaps/95%), targets rose from 5 to 16 (18 true), catches from 2 to 14 (15 true), yards from 17 to 192 (203 true), and he scored twice; his adjusted share rose by 30.7 points. T-Mac was the entire passing offense (192 yards, a 12.0 yards-per-target average on the official 16), with 147 of the yards in the first half; his second-half volume fell to 6 official targets (8 true).
Chuba Hubbard led the Panthers backfield by a wide margin: 20 carries for 122 yards (6.1 per carry) and two touchdowns plus 2 targets (1 catch, 7 yards) — 22 official opportunities, 78.6% of the 28 official running-back opportunities — against A.J. Dillon’s 5 carries for 2 yards and 1 target (6 opportunities, 21.4%). Last week Hubbard had 19 carries for 82 yards, no touchdown and 4 targets (5 true) — 23 opportunities, 82.1% of 28 — and Dillon 4 carries for 16 yards and 1 target (5, 17.9%), so Hubbard’s carries rose from 19 to 20, his rushing yards from 82 to 122 and his touchdowns from 0 to 2, while his targets fell from 4 (5 true) to 2 and his receiving yards from 28 (58 true) to 7. Snap shares were essentially unchanged: Hubbard 65 snaps (84%) in Week 3 and 63 (84%) this week; Dillon 12 (16%) and 11 (15%). Usage by half: Hubbard carried 8 times for 26 yards in the first half (−4, 1, 3, 6 and the 15-yard touchdown in the first quarter; 5, −4 and 4 in the second) and 12 times for 96 in the second half (4, 8, 2, 1, 25 and the 2-yard touchdown in the third quarter; 32, 12, 6, 3, 1 and 0 in the fourth), including the 25-yard run (Q3 3:28), the 2-yard touchdown (Q3 2:52) and the 32-yard run on the first snap of the fourth quarter (Q4 14:43); Carolina’s second-half carry mix was Hubbard 12, Dillon 4 and Young 2 (the two kneel-downs). Carolina led from Q3 9:33 to the final whistle (by 3 to 13 points), and 10 of Hubbard’s 12 second-half carries came after the lead was established. Hubbard’s 122 yards: four carries of 12 or more yards (15, 25, 32 and 12 — 84 yards) and 16 others for 38 (2.4 per carry); without the 32-yard run he has 19 carries for 90 (4.7).
Darren Waller caught 3 of 6 targets for 36 yards (14.6% official, 13.6% adjusted). Snap share: 40 snaps (53%) — little changed from 39 (51%) in Week 3. His first half was 1 target/0 catches (an incompletion at the DET 32, Q2 8:19); his second half 5 targets/3 catches/36 yards (11, 16 and a converted 9-yard 4th-and-4 catch, with two incompletions from the DET 14). Red-zone/goal-line usage: two red-zone targets, both incomplete (Q4 9:18 and 9:08). Compared to Week 3 (8 targets/5 catches/51 yards, 16.3% adjusted, 39 snaps/51%), targets fell from 8 to 6, yards from 51 to 36, and the share by 2.7 points. Waller remained the most-targeted Carolina tight end on a similar snap load; two of his three incompletions came on the failed red-zone trip.
John Metchie caught 3 of 5 official targets for 37 yards (12.2% official, 13.6% adjusted — 6 true targets, 4 true catches, 63 true yards). Snap share: 28 snaps (37%) — down from 43 (56%) in Week 3.
Brycen Tremayne (WR, a starter) caught 2 of 3 targets for 32 yards (7.3% official, 6.8% adjusted): an 11-yard catch (Q3 13:19), a 21-yard catch (2nd-and-8, Q3 5:10), and an incompletion on 3rd-and-7 (Q4 6:20, his Offensive Pass Interference declined). Snap share: 69 snaps (92%) — up from 62 (81%) in Week 3. All three targets came in the second half (none in the first).
EDGE rusher Jalen Phillips suffered a back injury and was questionable to return to Sunday night’s contest against Detroit. Monroe Freeling (knee) was also ruled out for the remainder of Sunday night’s contest against the Lions.
As hot as the Panthers’ offense has been through the first four games of the season, they needed this bye week to get some guys back healthy (especially on their offensive line).
Given that Coker missed the Lions’ game with an injury and Carolina is OFF this week, he can be acquired for pennies on the dollar. But through 3 games, Coker ranks WR12 in PPG and WR15 in XPPG.
Next four matchups (CAR): Wk5 BYE | Wk6 at PHI (Road) | Wk7 vs TB (Home) | Wk8 at GB (Road, Thursday 10/29, 8:15 PM).
Detroit Lions
Add Lions DST
Jahmyr Gibbs was the entire Detroit rushing attack — 15 of 15 running-back carries (17 of 17 true) for 46 yards (62 true) and a touchdown, plus 7 targets (4 catches, 31 yards including a 9-yard lateral) — 22 official opportunities (24 true), 91.7% of the 24 official running-back opportunities (92.3% of 26 true), against Sione Vaki’s 2 targets and no carry (8.3% official). Last week Gibbs had 20 carries (21 true) and 8 targets (28 official opportunities, 80.0% of 35), and Vaki had 6 carries and 1 target (7, 20.0%), so Gibbs’ carries fell from 20 (21 true) to 15 (17 true), his targets fell from 8 to 7, and Vaki’s carries went from 6 to none. His snap share rose from 45 snaps (69%) to 62 (87%) while Vaki’s fell from 20 (31%) to 12 (17%). Usage by half: Gibbs carried 11 times for 35 yards in the first half (12 for 45 true; three in the first quarter for 14 yards — 7, 3 and 4 — and eight in the second for 21, including the 1-yard touchdown) and 4 times for 11 in the second half (all four in the third quarter: 3, 4, 3 and 1 yards, plus the erased 6-yard run) — Detroit ran no carry at all in the fourth quarter: all 25 of its fourth-quarter plays were passes (24 attempts) or the Q4 2:00 sack, with Detroit trailing 29-19 to start the quarter, 32-19 after Carolina’s field goal and 32-26 after the LaPorta touchdown. Gibbs had three touches in the passing game in the fourth quarter: an 8-yard catch (Q4 8:32), the 9-yard lateral (Q4 7:10), and a 5-yard catch (Q4 6:07).
Short-yardage/power usage: Gibbs took the 1st-and-goal touchdown from the CAR 1 and a 2nd-and-5 run for 2 from the CAR 19 (Q2 3:35); he was not given a carry on the Q4 trip from the CAR 15, where Detroit threw three incompletions on the first three downs. His 46 yards include one 13-yard run (2nd-and-13, Q2 13:45); his other 14 carries gained 33 (2.4 per carry), with one −3 run and two no-gain runs; the two erased runs (10 and 6 yards) would lift the true line to 62 yards on 17 carries (3.6 per carry).
The target tree was a four-man tree: Sam LaPorta (13 targets, 24.5% adjusted), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11, 20.8%), Isaac TeSlaa (9 true, 17.0%) and Jameson Williams (8, 15.1%), with Jahmyr Gibbs at 13.2% (7). The running backs combined for 9 of the 52 named true targets (17.3%); Gibbs’ share fell from 25.0% in Week 3 to 13.2%, St. Brown’s from 25.0% to 20.8%, and LaPorta’s rose from 12.5% to 24.5%, TeSlaa’s from 9.4% to 17.0%, and Williams’ from 12.5% to 15.1%.
Jared Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions (92.8 rating), was sacked once for 6 yards and did not carry. His first half was 13-of-21 for 153 yards (no touchdown, no sack); his second half 19-of-31 for 259 yards, the 8-yard touchdown to LaPorta and a Q4 2:00 sack (−6).
Sam LaPorta caught 8 of 13 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown (25.0% official, 24.5% adjusted — the team lead). Snap share: 56 snaps (79%) — down from 60 (92%) in Week 3. His first half was 5 targets/3 catches/16 yards (−2 and 11 on the first two catches in Q1, a 7-yard catch in Q2, and incompletions on 3rd-and-12 and 2nd-and-10); his second half 8 targets/5 catches/68 yards and the touchdown (25, 7, 21, 7 and the 8-yard touchdown, with incompletions on 3rd-and-6, 1st-and-10 from the CAR 15 and 3rd-and-13). Red-zone/goal-line usage: four red-zone targets (incomplete from the CAR 8 on 3rd-and-6, incomplete from the CAR 15, the 7-yard catch on 4th-and-5 from the CAR 10, and the 8-yard touchdown on 1st-and-8 from the CAR 8).
Three of his thirteen targets came on third down (all incomplete), and a fourth was the converted 4th-and-5. Compared to Week 3 (4 targets/3 catches/44 yards, 12.5% adjusted, 60 snaps/92%), targets rose from 4 to 13, catches from 3 to 8, yards from 44 to 84, and the share by 12.0 points; he scored a touchdown. The Lions TE was the volume leader and Detroit’s red-zone target on the final touchdown drive even on fewer snaps (79%), though the 6.5 yards per target is modest and 25 of his 84 yards came on one catch.
Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 8 of 11 targets for 75 yards (21.2% official, 20.8% adjusted). Snap share: 68 snaps (96%) — up from 48 (74%) in Week 3. His first half was 3 targets/3 catches/37 yards (18, 5 and 14); his second half 8 targets/5 catches/38 yards (19, 7, 4, 5 and 3, with incompletions on 3rd-and-14 and two consecutive incompletions from the CAR 15 at Q4 7:16 and 7:13).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: three red-zone targets (two incompletions from the CAR 15 and a 5-yard catch from the CAR 15 at Q4 4:34). His 4-yard catch on 4th-and-20 (Q4 7:10) was lateraled to Gibbs for 9 more; St. Brown is charged with the target and the 4-yard catch. Compared to Week 3 (8 targets/4 catches/19 yards and a touchdown, 25.0% adjusted, 48 snaps/74%), targets rose from 8 to 11, catches from 4 to 8, yards from 19 to 75, and his snap share rose by 22 points, but his share fell by 4.2 points, and he did not score.
Jameson Williams finally had a big game! Why you always remain patient with a boom-or-bust player like Jamo. The speedster caught 6 of 8 targets for 102 yards (15.4% official, 15.1% adjusted). Snap share: 70 snaps (99%) — up from 53 (82%) in Week 3.
His first half was 5 targets/4 catches/74 yards (6, 8, 11 and a 49-yard deep-right catch at Q2:21, with a deep incompletion at Q1 6:39); his second half 3 targets/2 catches/28 yards (14 on 3rd-and-7 and 14 on 2nd-and-3, plus an incompletion on 2nd-and-14). Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target, an 11-yard catch on 3rd-and-3 from the CAR 17 (Q2 3:03). The 49-yard catch is 48.0% of his 102 yards; all three of his third-down catches (8, 11 and 14) converted. Compared to Week 3 (4 targets/4 catches/49 yards, 12.5% adjusted, 53 snaps/82%), targets doubled from 4 to 8, catches rose from 4 to 6, yards from 49 to 102, and the share by 2.6 points.
But if you have not enjoyed the Williams roller coaster ride thus far…this would be your chance to get off the ride. Cardinals matchup is solid up next, but then the Lions have a Week 6 bye week.
Isaac TeSlaa caught 4 of 8 official targets for 95 yards (15.4% official, 17.0% adjusted — 9 true targets). Snap share: 58 snaps (82%) — up from 31 (48%) in Week 3. True line: one additional zero-value target (Q2 2:23, 1st-and-6 at the CAR 6, incomplete short middle, erased by DPI) — Gibbs scored on the next snap. His first half was 2 official targets/0 catches (incompletions on 2nd-and-12 at Q1 12:17 and 1st-and-10 from the CAR 23 at Q2 :15) plus the erased target; his second half 6 targets/4 catches/95 yards (57 on 1st-and-25, 10, 16 and 12 on 4th-and-13, with incompletions at the CAR 36 and CAR 15).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: two red-zone targets (the erased DPI target and an incompletion from the CAR 15 at Q4 4:40); no touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/66 yards, 9.4% adjusted, 31 snaps/48%), targets rose from 3 to 8 (9 true), catches from 3 to 4, yards from 66 to 95, his adjusted share by 7.6 points and his snaps by 34 points; he started this week after a second-wave role in Week 3.
TeSlaa saw a major role change in Week 4 that is very noteworthy — 58 snaps and the third-most targets — but 73 of his 95 yards came on the 57- and 16-yard catches, and he had no first-half catch.
CB Rock Ya-Sin (hamstring) was ruled out for the rest of Sunday night’s contest against the Panthers. More defensive back injuries for the Lions….
Even so, the Lions DST is streamable against the Cardinals’ turnover-prone QB in a game that should feature a lot of dropback opportunities.
Next four matchups (DET): Wk5 at ARZ (Road) | Wk6 BYE | Wk7 vs GB (Home) | Wk8 vs MIN (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM FOX).
New Orleans Saints
Add Jordyn Tyson & Hold Alvin Kamara
Tyler Shough went 30-of-48 for 286 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions (85.9 rating), was sacked twice for 16 yards and rushed twice for 5 yards (a 2-yard 3rd-and-1 sneak and a 3-yard scramble). His first half was 12-of-19 for 139 yards and 1 sack (7 yards); his second half 18-of-29 for 147 yards, the 3-yard touchdown and 1 sack (9 yards, the Q4 4th-and-6 that ended the Saints’ drive).
A volume-driven day (48 attempts) in a trailing script, with 5.96 yards per attempt gross (286/48) and one touchdown pass; the Saints’ red-zone efficiency was good (3-for-4) but its production on third down (6-for-15) was not.
The Saints’ second-year QB was pressured on 25 of his 51 dropbacks (49.0%) against the Falcons, the highest rate of his career in games he has started.
Shough completed just one of his nine deep pass attempts (20+ air yards) against the Falcons, this was his first deep completion since Week 1 against the Lions.
His 2.6 yards per attempt on deep passes is a career low for games he has completed at least one deep pass. On his nine deep pass attempts, the Saints lost 10.7 percentage points of win probability, the second fewest in his career (Next Gen Stats).
He also seemed to be dealing with some kind of hand injury throughout the entire game.
Alvin Kamara scored two rushing touchdowns for the first time since Week 2 of 2024 in addition to catching five of his seven targets for 35 yards — his 53.8% snap share on Monday night was his highest since Week 10 of last year (left the game during garbage time, hence the difference between that snap count and his official 40%). With Travis Etienne (hamstring) on IR and Kendre Miller fumbling in the first quarter, the door was open for Kamara to lead the team in carries (7). It should be noted that he was receiving medical attention after taking a hit to the knee earlier in the game (but he did return).
Kamara led the backfield by usage: 14 official opportunities (7 carries, 7 targets; 50.0% of the backfield’s 28) to Kendre Miller’s 9 (6 carries, 3 targets; 32.1%) and C.J. Donaldson’s 5 (3 carries, 2 targets; 17.9%) – mostly in garbage time.
Week 3 was Travis Etienne 15 (50.0% of 30), Kamara 10 (33.3%), Miller 4 carries, and Donaldson 1 — so Kamara’s opportunities rose from 10 to 14, Miller’s from 4 carries to 9 opportunities, and Donaldson’s from 1 to 5, with Etienne’s 15 touches reallocated. Kamara was the passing-game back (7 targets — the most of any back in the game — for 5 catches/35 yards, fourth on the team behind Olave 12, Vele 9 and Johnson 8) and the touchdown back (3-yard and 5-yard runs, both goal-to-go), but he carried only 7 times for 23 yards (3.3 YPC). Donaldson’s five touches all came in the final seven minutes (Q4 6:47 on: runs of 9, 3 and 6, catches of -1 and 6) with Atlanta ahead 45-17, yet he was on the field for 28 snaps (38%), as many as Kamara — so most of his snaps carried no touch (mostly of third downs/obvious pass protection role). In the first half Kamara had 6 of the backfield’s 9 opportunities (3 carries/9 yards and a touchdown, 3 catches/24 yards) and Miller 3 carries (4 yards, including the fumble); the second half was 8, 6 and 5. New Orleans ran only 19 times on 69 plays (27.5%; 2.6 YPC) while trailing by 7 or more from the Q1 :48 touchdown to the final whistle, so every New Orleans back’s carry count is script-limited; the target counts are the more useful signal.
Don’t expect rushing production (Saints cannot run the ball), but pass-game usage and red-zone opportunities should make Kamara a viable fantasy RB2.
Shough had 180 pass attempts this season – by far the most in the NFL. If you need a pass-catcher – add Saints players. That includes rookie first-rounder WR Jordyn Tyson if he is floating on your waivers.
Albeit next week the garbage time production might stall out – given a home matchup versus the Brian Flores-led Vikings defense.
Chris Olave caught 8 of 12 targets for 116 yards (a 25.0% official/22.6% adjusted target share, the team lead; long 44). Snap share: 64 snaps (86%) — up from 84% in Week 3 (+2 pts); 12 targets on 64 snaps is one per 5.3. His first half was 5 targets/3 catches/62 yards (a 44-yard deep-left catch on the Q1:44 drive-opener plus 12 and 6 yards on the two-minute drive); his second half 7 targets/5 catches/54 yards (11, 10, 23 on 4th-and-7 at midfield, 5 and 5; incompletions at Q3 1:41 and Q4 5:40). Red-zone usage: 1 red-zone target (a 5-yard catch, 1st-and-10 at the ATL 16, Q4 2:00); no touchdown. He also took a hit to the knee late in the game – Kellen Moore said he was okay, but it’s worth monitoring on a short week.
Juwan Johnson caught 6 of 8 official targets (11 true) for 59 yards (a 16.7% official/20.8% adjusted target share, second on the team). Snap share: 58 snaps (78%) — up from 62% in Week 3 (+16 pts), the biggest jump among Saints receivers; 11 true targets on 58 snaps is one per 5.3. True opportunity: three zero-value targets erased by penalty — Q3 9:29 (DPI, ATL 17), Q3 :34 (deep left, Illegal Shift on Johnson) and Q4 1:23 (DPI, spotted at the ATL 3). His first half was 4 targets/4 catches/44 yards (23 on 2nd-and-12, 2, 18 and 1); his second half 4 targets/2 catches/15 yards (9 on 3rd-and-4, 6 on 3rd-and-7; two incompletions) plus the three erased targets (7 true second-half targets). Red-zone usage: 3 red-zone targets, none a reception — one official incompletion (Q4 13:33, ATL 14) and two erased by DPI (ATL 17; ATL 11, spotted at the 3). Compared to Week 3 (8 official/10 true targets, 9 true catches/62 yards, 2 touchdowns, 22.7% adjusted, 62% snaps, a lost fumble), the share fell 1.9 points with no touchdown scores.
Devaughn Vele caught 6 of 9 official targets (10 true) for 54 yards and a 3-yard touchdown (an 18.8% official/18.9% adjusted target share) in garbage time. Snap share: 66 snaps (89%) — up from 88% in Week 3 (+1 pt), the most snaps of any Saints skill player despite not starting; 10 true targets is one per 6.6 snaps. True opportunity: a 5-yard catch (Q3 1:08) was erased by an offensive holding call — true line 10 targets/7 catches/59 yards. His first half was 2 targets/1 catch/2 yards; his second half 7 targets/5 catches/52 yards and the touchdown (an 18-yard catch on 4th-and-10, a 17-yard catch on 3rd-and-18 that stopped one yard short of the line to gain, a 9-yard catch to the ATL 5, a 5-yard catch and the 3-yard touchdown). Red-zone usage: 3 red-zone targets — an incompletion on 3rd-and-3 at the ATL 8 (Q3 7:47), a 9-yard catch (Q4 13:28) and the 3-yard touchdown (Q4 1:19); 1 touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (6 targets/3 catches/39 yards, 13.6% adjusted, 88% snaps), the share rose 5.3 points and the yards from 39 to 54, with a touchdown and a 4th-and-10 conversion (an 18-yard catch, Q3 1:33) and a 17-yard catch on 3rd-and-18 that set up Kamara’s 4th-and-1.
Bryce Lance caught 1 of 5 official targets (6 true) for 7 yards (a 10.4% official/11.3% adjusted share). Snap share: 63 snaps (85%) — up from 72% in Week 3 (+13 pts), with 6 true targets and one catch on 63 snaps. True opportunity: the Q3 1:52 deep-right target was erased by DPI (25 yards) — a sixth, zero-value target. Red-zone usage: 1 red-zone target (the 7-yard catch to the ATL 3).
Next four matchups (NO): Wk5 vs MIN (Home) | Wk6 at NYG (Road) | Wk7 vs PIT (Home) | Wk8 BYE.
Atlanta Falcons
Add Brian Robinson Jr. & Drop Kyle Pitts
Michael Penix Jr. went 15-of-20 for 223 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions (127.7 rating) and was sacked once for 8 yards. Atlanta was 4-for-5 in the red zone, with every touchdown on the ground. Penix has been running cold in the passing TD department; otherwise, you’d feel much better about him as a potential streamer in upcoming matchups.
Bijan Robinson carried 19 times for 145 yards (7.6 YPC, long 59) and 2 touchdowns and caught 1 of 2 targets for 2 yards (a 10.0% official/9.5% adjusted target share). Snap share: 34 snaps (60%) — down from 72% in Week 3 (−12 pts); he turned them into 21 official opportunities, the same 0.62 per snap as Brian Robinson
In the last two weeks, Brian Robinson leads all qualified RBs with 0.33 EPA per carry while his 58.3% success rate ranks third. Entering handcuff-plus territory because he has had a standalone role alongside Bijan Robinson thus far this season.
Brian Robinson carried 14 times for 62 yards (4.4 YPC) and 3 touchdowns and caught 1 of 1 target for 5 yards (a 5.0% official/4.8% adjusted target share). Snap share: 24 snaps (42%) — up from 27% in Week 3 (+15 pts), almost exactly his 41.7% share of backfield opportunities. His first half was 9 carries/35 yards and a touchdown (4 yards, Q2) and a 5-yard catch (Q2 9:47, which put the ball at the NO 4 for his own touchdown); his second half was 5 carries/27 yards and two touchdowns (8 yards, Q3; 11 yards, Q4). Red-zone/goal-line usage: 4 red-zone carries for +30 yards and 3 touchdowns (NO 4 TD, 8 TD, 18, 11 TD); one carry from the NO 5 or closer (the 4-yard touchdown, 3rd-and-2); no carry from the 1; 1 red-zone target (a 5-yard catch). Compared to Week 3 (10 carries/50 yards and a touchdown, 0 official/1 true target, 27% snaps), carries rose from 10 to 14 and touchdowns from 1 to 3. Three of his touchdown carries were from the NO 11 or closer.
Drake London caught five of his six targets for 96 yards in the Falcons’ Week 4 win over the Saints. A 30.0% official/28.6% adjusted target share, the team lead; long 37. Snap share: 51 snaps (89%) — down from 93% in Week 3 (−4 pts); 6 targets on 51 snaps is one per 8.5 snaps (Week 3: one per 6.6). His first half was 5 targets/4 catches/82 yards (12, 27 and 37 yards and a 6-yard catch on the Q2 closing drive); his second half 1 target/1 catch/14 yards (3rd-and-10).
According to Next Gen Stats, the vast majority of London’s production came against cornerback Quincy Riley. In London’s eight matchups against Riley, London was targeted five times, and he caught four receptions for 59 yards. London’s 62.5% target rate against Riley is his fourth-highest single-game target rate against an individual defender. (min. 5 matchups).
In the last two weeks, London leads the league (min. 6 targets) with a 37.2% target share, 6.4 yards per route and 18.1 yards per target while his 54.9% air yards share ranks third. Two of his three best career games by yards per target are his last two games, according to Next Gen Stats.
Having Michael Penix back under center is making all the difference for London. And the fact that he had nearly 100 yards when his QB attempted 20 passes is so great for his ROS outlook.
Kyle Pitts? Not so much.
I toyed with the idea that Pitts could be an interesting buy-low with the caveat that his production had nowhere to go but up.
But man, we were sold a bag of turds when it comes to Kevin Stefanski using tight ends in his offenses.
Pitts ran just 9 routes and played 51% of the snaps on Monday Night Football – catching all 3 of his targets for 47 yards. The ESPN broadcast even panned to Pitts on the sideline, acknowledging that he was barely playing. WOOF.
Pitts also did not start.
Snap share: — down from 59% in Week 3 (−8 pts), behind Charlie Woerner’s 33 (58%) for the second straight week (Week 3: 43 vs. 42). His first half was 2/2/19 (9 yards on a replay-assisted spot and 10 yards on the Q2 drive); his second half 1/1/28 (Q4 12:55, the opening play of the Dotson touchdown drive). No red-zone targets. Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/1 catch/5 yards, 7.7% adjusted), the share rose 6.6 points and the yards from 5 to 47. He had a perfect catch rate (3-for-3) and a 28-yard play on 3 targets from an ancillary role; his target share rose 6.6 points while his snap share fell 8. The worst part is that Pitts had a season-low route participation at 43%. Double woof. Drop him.
It’s never a good sign when Austin Hooper gets looks over Pitts on the team’s opening drive.
Jahan Dotson caught 2 of 3 official targets (4 true) for 54 yards and a 31-yard touchdown (a 15.0% official/19.0% adjusted target share). Snap share: 36 snaps (63%) — down from 66% in Week 3 (−3 pts), 4 true targets on 36 snaps.
The only thing that went wrong for Atlanta on Monday Night was injuries. They lost starting LT Jake Matthews and CB C.J. Henderson (although the CB returned to action). LB Zadarius Smith also exited with a concussion.
Next four matchups (ATL): Wk5 vs BLT (Home) | Wk6 vs CHI (Home) | Wk7 vs SF (Home) | Wk8 at TB (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM FOX).
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