NFL Week 5 is complete.
More running back injuries. Even more yellow penalty flags. But my Patriots won AGAIN. So life is good. And the New England fall foliage remains undefeated.
But let’s get to business.
- Waiver wire targets.
- Trades to make.
- Start/sit decisions.
Let my “Beyond the Waiver Wire” series be your compass, guiding you to Week 6 fantasy football success.
No fluff (or less fluff). Trust me, I am trying my best. Advanced metrics/data are provided by the NFL’s Next Gen Stats (NGS).
LFG.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Fantasy Football Beyond the Waiver Wire: Week 6
Arizona Cardinals
Buy Jeremiyah Love & Add Tyler Allgeier & Sell Michael Wilson
Jeremiyah Love had 13 of the backs’ 19 opportunities (68.4%, from 60.0% of 25), Tyler Allgeier had just 5 (26.3%, from 40.0% in Week 4), and Zonovan Knight finished with just 1 (5.3%) on the last snaps. Love played 49% of the snaps (increase from 45% in Week 4), and Allgeier fell to 44% (55%). Love carried 12 times for 22 yards (1.8) and had no touch after Q4 14:19; Allgeier ran 3 times for 7 yards and caught 2 of 2 for 9.
The rookie RB was targeted once (2.0% adjusted).
Now the final box score is disappointing, but he still saw 13 of the 19 back opportunities, which indicates the lead role for Love, but he led Allgeier by only 4 snaps (36 to 32), averaged 1.8 per carry, and had no touch in the last 14 minutes in a game that Arizona was getting blown out in.
It’s not super encouraging that Arizona isn’t using Love more in the receiving game this season as they continue to monitor his overall workload for the remainder of the season. He has one catch for -8 yards in the last 2 games. Allgeier is the preferred RB on third down, so he has a bigger role as a receiver than Love this season.
I could see scenarios where Love is a buy/sell/hold. I think he’s worth kicking the tires on, at least coming off his two worst games, even though he’s still averaging 14 RB opportunities per game as the team’s lead back (Allgeier is at 7.5, with his smallest workload this past week).
Rookie RBs are bigger hits in the second half of the season than the first. Trust the process. Room to grow. The schedule has some decent spots for him to pop.
Jacoby Brissett completed 29 of 47 for 292 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception (91.8), was sacked 5 times for 28 yards, and ran twice for 19. Arizona racked up 202 of the 292 yards and both second-half touchdowns after trailing 31-7. It’s garbage time at its finest (76% pass play rate)…but this isn’t always super sustainable.
Rumblings suggest rookie QB Carson Beck could be activated as the backup QB ahead of Week 6…which could accelerate the clock on Brissett’s status as QB1 in the desert.
Trey McBride caught 9 of 10 for 66 yards and a 9-yard touchdown (20.4% adjusted); 66 snaps (90%), from 97%. Teagan Quitoriano (TE; 2 of 2 for 15 yards and two touchdowns, 4.1%; 30 snaps, 41%).
Kendrick Bourne caught 5 of 8 for 70 yards (16.3%, from 0.0%); 36 snaps (49%), from 64%. A Marvin Harrison-absence target spike on fewer snaps (8 targets on 36, with his share down from 64% to 49%), with 45 of his 70 yards on two third-down catches.
Michael Wilson caught 4 of 7 official targets for 30 yards (16.3% adjusted on 8 true targets, from 35.1%); 61 snaps (84%), from 94%. The full-time role held (84% of the snaps), but only 8 true targets on 61 snaps.
Wilson was a major disappointment in a plus matchup against Detroit, so he might be a sneaky buy-low despite his clear-cut WR1 status. But I’m not so sure this is a sneaky buy-low. The market is really high on Wilson after the Harrison trade, even though the former 4th overall pick was a complete non-factor this season.
And Wilson (despite all his great usage) has not been efficient this season. 1.4 yards per route run ranks 53rd among 73 qualifying WRs. 64th in catch rate. 59th in catch rate over expectation. 70th in EPA/target.
All the environmental factors at play that have fantasy managers concerned about Love… could also apply to Wilson.
I listed him as a buy in my first run through the BWW Week 6, but after talking about it with Worm on the Week 6 Buys and Sells show, I think Wilson is actually a sharp sell candidate based on the market value.
The Cardinals placed OG Isaiah Adams (ankle) on injured reserve Saturday. Considering the OL injuries piling up for Arizona, I totally understand if you want no piece of this offense ROS.
Next four matchups (ARZ): Wk6 at LAR (Road, Sunday 10/18, 4:05 PM) | Wk7 vs DEN (Home, Sunday 10/25, 4:05 PM) | Wk8 at DAL (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at SEA (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM).
Atlanta Falcons
Hold Drake London
Atlanta led 23-15 with 2:31 left and lost, on 367 net yards and 17 first downs (3 rushing), 1-for-3 in the red zone and 9-for-17 on third down, with the game-ending interception intended for Drake London in overtime as its only turnover.
Michael Penix Jr. completed 19 of 32 for 240 yards, 1 touchdown, and no interceptions (93.2); he was sacked 3 times for 17 and ran twice for 8; he fumbled once on the Q4 0:27 sack (recovered). Tua Tagovailoa went 2-of-3 for 34 yards and the interception on 3 snaps (5%): He would be the presumed starter if Penix’s injury is long-term.
Penix didn’t return to Sunday’s 30-23 overtime loss to the Ravens after sustaining a rib injury late in the fourth quarter. The team is optimistic he might be able to play in Week 6 versus the Bears.
Bijan Robinson carried 17 times for 86 yards and caught 4 of 7 for 32 (20.0% adjusted, from 9.5%). Snap share: 52 (81%), up from 34 (60%). Bijan had 24 of the backs’ 32 opportunities (75.0%, from 58.3%).
Brian Robinson carried 7 times for 16 yards and had one incompletion on a target (2.9% adjusted, from 4.8%). Snap share: 14 (22%), from 24 (42%). The Week 4 case for a standalone role did not hold, with 22% of the snaps, 2.3 yards per carry, and no touchdowns.
Drake London caught 7 of 11 for 118 yards (31.4% adjusted, from 28.6%); no red-zone target. Snap share: 63 (98%), from 51 (89%). 5 of his seven catches converted third downs, and 11 targets on 98% of the snaps is the alpha role.
Kyle Pitts caught 5 of 6 for 42 yards and a 5-yard touchdown (17.1% adjusted, from 14.3%) with two red-zone targets. Snap share increased to 43 (67%), from 29 (51%).
Pitts started, led the tight ends in snaps and scored, and his 43% route participation from Week 4 increased to 76% in Week 5.
Jahan Dotson caught 2 of 4 for 54 yards (11.4% adjusted, from 19.0%) but went 0-for-2 in the red zone; snap share 42 (66%), from 36 (63%).
Charlie Woerner ( 2 targets, 1 catch for 13 yards, 5.7%; 42 snaps, 66%, from 58%) and Zacharian Branch (WR; 2 catches for 15, 5.7%; 12 snaps, 19%):
CB C.J. Henderson (groin) is questionable to return to Sunday night’s contest against the Ravens
Next four matchups (ATL): Wk6 vs CHI (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk7 vs SF (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk8 at TB (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk9 vs CIN (Neutral — Madrid, Sunday 11/8, 9:30 AM NFLN).
Baltimore Ravens
Buy Zay Flowers & Add Jakobi Lane & Sell Mark Andrews
Tyler Huntley completed 24 of 32 for 201 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interception, was sacked 3 times for 16 yards and ran 6 times for 20 yards and the winning touchdown. Huntley went 4-of-5 for 42 yards and two touchdowns on red-zone passes. Per Next Gen Stats, Huntley didn’t turn the ball over despite being pressured 14 times (37.8% of dropbacks), taking three sacks.
Derrick Henry carried 24 times for 102 yards and caught 1 of 2 targets for 18 yards and a touchdown (6.1% adjusted). Snap share: 42 (55%), from 40 (62%).
The touchdown-equity signal is 26 opportunities on 42 snaps, five red-zone carries (two from the 5 or closer), and two stops at the 1, with a 3.6-per-carry baseline on his 22 carries other than the two 11-yarders.
Justice Hill carried 4 times for 73 yards (47 on one run) and caught 2 of 4 for 5 (12.1% adjusted). Snap share: 35 (46%), from 24 (38%). 8 opportunities on 35 snaps.
Zay Flowers caught 8 of 9 official targets (9 of 10 true) for 53 yards (79 true), a 30.3% adjusted share. Snap share: 62 (82%), from 47 (73%).
Rashod Bateman caught 5 of 6 for 62 yards (18.2% adjusted, from 6.9%); snap share 61 (80%), from 30 (47%).
Add: the biggest role change on the team, with a 19-yard third-down catch in the first half and the 20-yarder to the ATL 7 on the tying drive.
Mark Andrews caught 4 of 6 for 28 yards and fumbled on a 9-yard catch that was returned for a touchdown (18% adjusted, from 20.7%); snap share 55 (72%), from 37 (58%). He also had a bone-breaking drop that would have been a touchdown.
Six targets for the second straight week, but two catches came in overtime. Andrews also had a season-low target share (18%). Third straight game Andrews has failed to surpass 30 yards despite 5-plus targets.
Devontez Walker (2 catches for 9 yards and the 7-yard tying touchdown, 6.1%; 45 snaps, 59%, from 69%) and Josh Cuevas (rookie TE 2 for 26, 6.1%, from 0.0%; 19 snaps, 25%).
Matthew Hibner (started but no targets; 30 snaps, 39%, from 58%, hurt Q2 and back at Q3 9:51).
The Ravens are also expecting both Trey Hendrickson and Jakobi Lane to return to practice this week.
Next four matchups (BLT): Wk6 at CLV (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk7 vs CIN (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM CBS) | Wk8 at BUF (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM CBS) | Wk9 vs JAX (Home, Thursday 11/5, 8:15 PM Prime).
Buffalo Bills
Add Keon Coleman & Buy Dalton Kincaid
Buffalo beat Los Angeles 37-34 in overtime by running the ball and making its few passes count while Los Angeles won nearly every volume category and still lost: the Rams out-gained Buffalo 454 net yards to 436 on 78 plays to 57 (5.8 per play to 7.6), made 33 first downs to 25, held the ball 37:57 to 30:08, converted 7 of 14 third downs to Buffalo’s 2 of 7 and went 5-for-5 in the red zone, with no turnovers.
Overtime turned on kicking and fumbles: James Cook lost a fumble at the LA 22 (OT 8:00), Los Angeles drove 50 yards, and a 48-yard field goal attempt was blocked by Greg Rousseau (OT 4:16), and Tyler Bass won it from 45 yards (OT 2:00). The Rams also missed from 50 yards (Q1 5:40) earlier in the game.
The score went back and forth nine times in a wild Monday night finisher.
Buffalo ran 37 times for 234 yards (6.3 per carry).
Josh Allen rushed for 107 yards on scrambles in the Bills’ Week 5 win over the Rams, the most by any player this season and third-most in a game in the Next Gen Stats era. He led the Bills with a whopping 121 rushing yards on a night where Buffalo needed his legs more than his arm.
Since 2016, Allen has rushed for 100+ yards on scrambles twice, while the entire rest of the NFL has also done so just twice. As a passer, Allen completed all 11 of his attempts under 10 air yards for 193 yards and his lone passing touchdown, but completed just one of seven attempts over 10 air yards for 17 yards and an interception (NGS).
James Cook scored a season-high 22.8 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Rams (Next Gen Stats).
Although a costly overtime fumble nearly cost Buffalo the game (one of Cook’s two fumbles), the Bills RB ran for 111 yards on his 25 carries and scored two touchdowns for the first time since Week 16 of 2025. Cook handled 26 of the backs’ 33 opportunities (78.8%, from 73.7%).
Despite logging a season-low 1.0 yards before contact per carry, his season-long average of 2.2 ranks second among qualified RBs (NGS).
Still, Cook trailed Ty Johnson in both routes run (9 versus 8) and targets (4 versus 1). Johnson’s overall snaps fell from 32% to 22% and Ray Davis rose from 7% to 16% in Week 5. Johnson (4 catches for 72 on 4 targets, 18.2%, from 5.6%; 14 snaps, 22%, from 19) and Davis (31-yard catch, 2 carries for 2; 10 snaps, 16%, from 4 – also added a big return on opening kickoff):
Dalton Kincaid ran a route on 95% of the Buffalo Bills’ dropbacks – but still air-balled in the box score. 1 of 2 for 7 yards plus the non-official two-point pass, a 9.1% adjusted share. Snap share: 45 (70%), from 35 (59%). Two targets for the second straight week on 70% of the snaps… is not ideal. The passing game struggled with the lack of involvement for Kincaid… it seems like an obvious solution would be to get him more targets.
D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer were not active in this game. In their absence, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman ran a route on 100% of Allen’s dropbacks.
Coleman led the tree at 22.7% adjusted (22.2% in Week 4) on 5 true targets (2 official) because of penalties. Coleman caught 1 of 2 official targets for 7 yards and the 7-yard touchdown (3 of 5 true for 31 yards). He has produced in 3 straight games when Moore has been sidelined or limited.
Shakir caught 3 of 3 for 80 yards (13.6%, from 22.2%); 44 snaps (69%), from 45 (76%). 57 of the 80 yards came on one overtime play.
Buffalo also lost their starting OT Spencer Brown in the second quarter. Christian Benford & Chauncey Gardner-Johnson also had some injury scares.
Next four matchups (BUF): Wk6 at LV (Road, Sunday 10/18, 4:25 PM CBS) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs BLT (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM CBS) | Wk9 at MIN (Road, Monday 11/9, 8:15 PM ESPN).
Carolina Panthers
Buy Jalen Coker
From Week 5’s Beyond The Waiver Wire:
“Bryce Young completed 29 of 41 passes for 329 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (110.7 rating), was sacked 3 times for 11 yards and carried 3 times for 3 yards (a 7-yard scramble and two kneel-downs of −1 and −3).
The target tree was concentrated on one receiver: Tetairoa McMillan took 18 of 44 adjusted attempts (40.9%; 16 of 41 official, 39.0%) in a career outing on Sunday Night Football.
McMillan caught 14 of 16 official targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns (39.0% official, 40.9% adjusted — the team leads; 18 true targets, 15 true catches, 203 true yards). Snap share: 67 snaps (89%) — down from 73 (95%) in Week 3. True line: an 11-yard catch (Q4 3:26, 2nd-and-9 at the CAR 37) was erased by an Illegal Formation, and a deep-right incompletion (Q3 11:25, 1st-and-15 at the DET 42) was erased by a DPI (17 yards). His first half was 10 targets/9 catches/147 yards and a 32-yard touchdown (10, 12, 9, 21, 26, 32, 11, 8 and 18, with a deep-left incompletion at Q2 1:20); his second half 6 targets/5 catches/45 yards and a 10-yard touchdown (5, 10, 8, 18 and 4, with an incompletion at Q4 6:22) — 8 true targets/6 true catches/56 true yards with the two erased plays.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: one red-zone target, the 10-yard touchdown from the DET 10 (Q3 9:37); the 32-yard touchdown was snapped at the DET 32 (not red zone). He converted all three of his third-down catches (10, 26, and 18 yards). Compared to Week 3 (5 targets/2 catches/17 yards, 10.2% adjusted, 73 snaps/95%), targets rose from 5 to 16 (18 true), catches from 2 to 14 (15 true), yards from 17 to 192 (203 true), and he scored twice; his adjusted share rose by 30.7 points. T-Mac was the entire passing offense (192 yards, a 12.0 yards-per-target average on the official 16), with 147 of the yards in the first half; his second-half volume fell to 6 official targets (8 true).
Chuba Hubbard led the Panthers backfield by a wide margin: 20 carries for 122 yards (6.1 per carry) and two touchdowns plus 2 targets (1 catch, 7 yards) — 22 official opportunities, 78.6% of the 28 official running-back opportunities — against A.J. Dillon’s 5 carries for 2 yards and 1 target (6 opportunities, 21.4%). Last week Hubbard had 19 carries for 82 yards, no touchdown and 4 targets (5 true) — 23 opportunities, 82.1% of 28 — and Dillon 4 carries for 16 yards and 1 target (5, 17.9%), so Hubbard’s carries rose from 19 to 20, his rushing yards from 82 to 122 and his touchdowns from 0 to 2, while his targets fell from 4 (5 true) to 2 and his receiving yards from 28 (58 true) to 7. Snap shares were essentially unchanged: Hubbard 65 snaps (84%) in Week 3 and 63 (84%) this week; Dillon 12 (16%) and 11 (15%). Usage by half: Hubbard carried 8 times for 26 yards in the first half (−4, 1, 3, 6 and the 15-yard touchdown in the first quarter; 5, −4 and 4 in the second) and 12 times for 96 in the second half (4, 8, 2, 1, 25 and the 2-yard touchdown in the third quarter; 32, 12, 6, 3, 1 and 0 in the fourth), including the 25-yard run (Q3 3:28), the 2-yard touchdown (Q3 2:52) and the 32-yard run on the first snap of the fourth quarter (Q4 14:43); Carolina’s second-half carry mix was Hubbard 12, Dillon 4 and Young 2 (the two kneel-downs). Carolina led from Q3 9:33 to the final whistle (by 3 to 13 points), and 10 of Hubbard’s 12 second-half carries came after the lead was established. Hubbard’s 122 yards: four carries of 12 or more yards (15, 25, 32 and 12 — 84 yards) and 16 others for 38 (2.4 per carry); without the 32-yard run he has 19 carries for 90 (4.7).
Darren Waller caught 3 of 6 targets for 36 yards (14.6% official, 13.6% adjusted). Snap share: 40 snaps (53%) — little changed from 39 (51%) in Week 3. His first half was 1 target/0 catches (an incompletion at the DET 32, Q2 8:19); his second half 5 targets/3 catches/36 yards (11, 16 and a converted 9-yard 4th-and-4 catch, with two incompletions from the DET 14). Red-zone/goal-line usage: two red-zone targets, both incomplete (Q4 9:18 and 9:08). Compared to Week 3 (8 targets/5 catches/51 yards, 16.3% adjusted, 39 snaps/51%), targets fell from 8 to 6, yards from 51 to 36, and the share by 2.7 points. Waller remained the most-targeted Carolina tight end on a similar snap load; two of his three incompletions came on the failed red-zone trip.
John Metchie caught 3 of 5 official targets for 37 yards (12.2% official, 13.6% adjusted — 6 true targets, 4 true catches, 63 true yards). Snap share: 28 snaps (37%) — down from 43 (56%) in Week 3.
Brycen Tremayne caught 2 of 3 targets for 32 yards (7.3% official, 6.8% adjusted): an 11-yard catch (Q3 13:19), a 21-yard catch (2nd-and-8, Q3 5:10), and an incompletion on 3rd-and-7 (Q4 6:20, his Offensive Pass Interference declined). Snap share: 69 snaps (92%) — up from 62 (81%) in Week 3. All three targets came in the second half (none in the first).
EDGE rusher Jalen Phillips suffered a back injury and was questionable for Sunday night’s contest against Detroit. Monroe Freeling (knee) was also ruled out for the remainder of Sunday night’s contest against the Lions.
As hot as the Panthers’ offense has been through the first four games of the season, they needed this bye week to get some guys back healthy (especially on their offensive line).
With Coker missing the Lions game with an injury and Carolina coming off the bye this week, he can be acquired for pennies on the dollar. But through 3 healthy games, Coker ranks WR11 in PPG and WR14 in XPPG.
The Panthers hope Jalen Coker (quadriceps) will be ready to return to action after their Week 5 bye.
OT Taylor Morton’s practice window to return has also been opened, and RB Trevor Etienne is coming off the short-term IR. Monroe Freeling is also expected to return in Week 6.
Love them in this spot off a bye week versus Philly, who has no rest after playing a London game in Week 5.
Next matchups (CAR): Wk6 at PHI (Road) | Wk7 vs TB (Home) | Wk8 at GB (Road, Thursday 10/29, 8:15 PM).
Chicago Bears
Add Caleb Williams & Hold Colston Loveland & Buy Luther Burden & Rome Odunze
Tyson Bagent went 12-of-21 for 87 yards and two interceptions (27.4 rating), took two sacks, and ran 3 times for 17 yards, including a 7-yard run to the Green Bay 1. Snap share: 46 (67%), from 93 (100%) in Week 4. He averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt with two turnovers and was benched for Keenum in the fourth quarter.
Case Keenum went 11-of-19 for 108 yards with one interception, took two sacks (one a lost fumble), and only entered after Green Bay led 31-7; three giveaways came on his drives (his interception, Rome Odunze’s fumbled catch, and his own sack-fumble).
D’Andre Swift carried 9 times for 43 yards and a 1-yard touchdown and caught 4 of 5 targets for 30 yards (12.2% adjusted share, up from 5.3%), with 11 of the backs’ first 14 opportunities. Snap share: 40 (58%), up from 33 (35%) in Week 4. He led the backs with 40 snaps, ahead of Roschon Johnson’s 27 (14 opportunities, 0.35 per snap), so this is a lead role, not a bell cow; he got the first-half work and the goal-line touchdown, but the whole backfield got only 14 carries and 49 yards.
Johnson carried 5 times for 6 yards and caught 5 of 7 targets for 34 yards (17.1% adjusted share, up from 2.6%); every target in Q4 came from Case Keenum while Chicago trailed by 24. So don’t chase the garbage-time receiving usage.
Snap share: 27 (39%), from 10 (11%) in Week 4. Kyle Monangai missed this game with a turf toe injury.
Rome Odunze caught 3 of 9 targets for 40 yards (22.0% adjusted share, up from 18.4%), going 0-for-3 in the first half and losing a fumble on the 4th-and-3 catch. Snap share: 68 (99%), up from 83 (89%) in Week 4. He was the most-targeted receiver and Chicago’s 3rd-and-1 option at the Green Bay 1; the production is the part that will likely regress once Caleb Williams returns .78 incomplete air yards last week with 2 end-zone targets (high-value opportunities). Odunze leads the Bears in receiving yards this season (273) with 7-plus targets in back-to-back games (also runs all the routes in the Bears offense, with 100% route participation in Week 5).
Luther Burden caught 4 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 47 yards and carried 4 times for 2 yards, including a -6 end-around at the Green Bay 3 (17.1% adjusted share, down from 18.4% in Week 4). Snap share: 53 (77%), from 52 (56%) in Week 4 (routes also increased to 80% – second highest on the year. Buy with Caleb Williams returning. Burden leads the Bears in targets this season (20.3%), averaging 1.9 yards per route run. Also has 8 red-zone targets. Burden has seen volume as a rusher every game: At least 4 catches and 47 yards in 4 of 5 games played this season.
Colston Loveland caught just 2 of 5 targets for 19 yards (12.2% adjusted share, down from 26.3%), with every target after halftime and one interception. Snap share: 55 (80%), from 86 (92%) in Week 4. The zero-target first half was not a role cut (80% of the snaps, Kmet down to 42%), but 5 targets on 55 snaps, all after halftime, is not yet the volume a strong buy needs. Hold for now and pray things improve with Williams under center.
Kalif Raymond caught 3 of 4 targets for 6 yards (9.8% adjusted share, flat from 10.5%). Snap share: 47 (68%), from 47 (51%) in Week 4.
Bears defense also suffered more injuries.
Dayo Odeyingbo (quadriceps) was listed as doubtful to return to Sunday’s game against the Packers. CB Tyrique Stevenson (hamstring) was doubtful to return to Sunday’s game against the Packers. LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Packers.
Head coach Ben Johnson wouldn’t commit to a return date for Williams (hamstring) after Sunday’s loss at Green Bay, Chris Emma of 670TheScore.com reports. “He’s on track. We’ll see if that’s Atlanta or after,” Johnson said. “I think it’s going to be close.
Next four matchups (CHI): Wk6 at ATL (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 vs NE (Home, Thursday Night 10/22, 8:15 PM) | Wk8 at SEA (Road, Monday Night 11/2, 8:15 PM) | Wk9 vs TB (Home, Sunday Night 11/8, 8:20 PM).
Cincinnati Bengals
Hold Chase Brown & Add Samaje Perine
Cincinnati won 31-24 at Miami despite being outgained 331 to 307 in net yards (Miami 5.2 per play to 4.9, 23 first downs to 22) because it won the turnover battle 3-1, held the ball 31:40 to 28:20, and went 9-for-13 on third down.
Joe Burrow completed 23 of 32 for 190 yards and four touchdowns (126.3 rating) with no sack and no interception, and Cincinnati turned two Malik Willis interceptions and a sack-fumble into 10 points while Miami scored none off Chase Brown’s fumbled catch at the MIA 7. The score was 21-7 at the half, and Miami never led; it scored 14 points in the fourth quarter on a 3-yard Kevin Coleman touchdown with a two-point conversion and a Willis QB sneak with 0:48 left.
The backfield went from one back to two: Chase Brown had 17 of the backs’ 33 opportunities (51.5%, from 83.3% of 24) and Samaje Perine 16 (48.5%, from 16.7%). Brown carried 13 times for 39 yards (3.0) and caught 3 of 4 targets for 21, with a lost fumble; snap share: 39 (60%), down from 60 (79%) in Week 4.
Perine carried 14 times for 68 (4.9), took 7 of the 8 fourth-quarter carries and caught a 6-yard touchdown. Snap share: 33 (51%), from 27 (36%) in Week 4.
Don’t overreact to Brown even as the receiving role of Week 4 (11-for-11) shrank to four targets and his snaps fell 19 points, as he still led the first half’s opportunities (10 of 18) but had no touchdowns.
Still, Perine has appeal as a high-end handcuff and potentially more if the usage is sticky post-bye week.
Ja’Marr Chase led the tree at 31.3% adjusted (5.2% in Week 4) with 6 catches for 77 yards and a 45-yard touchdown. Chase caught 6 of 10 targets for 77 yards and a 45-yard touchdown (31.3% adjusted, from 5.2%), with 3 red-zone targets and a forced fumble. Snap share: 58 (89%), from 15 (20%) in Week 4 after a Q2 exit.
Tee Higgins fell to 12.5% from 29.3% (all four targets before halftime). Higgins caught 2 of 4 targets for 22 yards, all in the first half (12.5% adjusted, from 29.3%). Snap share: 45 (69%), from 60 (79%) in Week 4. Probably wasn’t 100% after being extremely iffy to play in this game. Should be back to full-go post bye week.
Dohnte Meyers to 6.3% from 15.5% and Mitchell Tinsley to none from 12.1%. Meyers caught 2 of 2 for 12 yards (6.3% adjusted, from 15.5%); snap share is 19 snaps (29%), from 89%.
Mike Gesicki caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards and the touchdown (6.3% adjusted, from 8.6%). Snap share: 29 (45%), from 47 (62%) in Week 4.
Tanner Hudson (3 of 3 for 14 yards and a touchdown, 9.4% adjusted, from 3.4%; snap share 19 snaps, 29%, from 41%) suffered a pec injury that could sideline him as a potential IR candidate.
Next four matchups (CIN): Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at BLT (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 vs TEN (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs ATL (Neutral – Madrid, Spain, Sunday 11/8, 9:30 AM).
Cleveland Browns
Add Jaleel McLaughlin
KC Concepcion has entered the NFL’s concussion protocol after taking a hit in the first quarter. He caught his only official target for 5 yards (5.6% adjusted, from 23.5% with the erased target) before leaving the game.
Isaiah Bond and Jerry Jeudy each got 7 targets (19.4% adjusted each, up from 2.9% and 8.8%) on 72% and 81% of snaps (11% and 38%). Bond caught 3 of 7 targets for 74 yards, long 30 (19.4% adjusted, from 2.9%). Jeudy caught 3 of 7 for 19 yards (19.4% adjusted, up from 8.8%).
Denzel Boston led the tree at 22.2% adjusted (23.5% in Week 4) with 3 catches for 46 yards and the touchdown, while Harold Fannin Jr. fell to 11.1% from 14.7%. Boston caught 3 of 7 official targets (8 true) for 46 yards and a 29-yard touchdown (22.2% adjusted, from 23.5%), with 6 of the 8 true targets in the second half. Snap share: 62 (91%), from 61 (95%) in Week 4.
Fannin caught 1 of 4 targets for 4 yards (11.1% adjusted, from 14.7%), two of them deep first-half incompletions. Snap share: 63 (93%), from 57 (89%) in Week 4. Blake Whiteheart started but played 13 snaps (19%, from 34%), so Fannin was the every-down tight end. His role is still elite.
Deshaun Watson’s 15-of-33 for 155 yards (4.7 per attempt) came with 8 sacks and a lost fumble on the 4th-and-11 sack at Q4 0:57; his 40 rushing yards (scrambles of 5, 20 and 11) were 41.7% of Cleveland’s 96.
Per Next Gen Stats, Watson was pressured on 26 of 44 dropbacks for a 59.1% pressure rate, the second-highest pressure rate faced by Watson in a game since 2018 and the highest pressure rate generated by the Jets defense in a game since Aaron Glenn became head coach in 2025.
LB Carson Schwesinger (lower leg) was seen in a walking boot after the Browns’ 17-12 loss to the Jets on Sunday.
The backfield stayed with Quinshon Judkins, who had 18 of the backs’ 23 opportunities (78.3%, from 82.8% of 29) on 14 carries for 44 yards (3.1) and 3 catches for 6 yards, with no red-zone carry or touchdown, but on 53% of the snaps (66% in Week 4); Raheim Sanders had 4 (17.4%) on 29% of the snaps and Jaleel McLaughlin 1 (a target) on 21%, up from 2%.
Sanders carried 3 times for 12 yards and caught a 1-yard pass (a 6-yard catch was erased by a holding penalty).
Judkins was wearing a walking boot on his right foot after Sunday’s 17-12 loss at the Jets. Same side as his injured fibula from last season. Todd Monken said it was precautionary, related to his ankle, listing him as day-to-day.
Raheim Sanders (hip) was also listed as questionable to return.
Jaleel McLaughlin is the only other RB on the active roster. Dylan Sampson also might see his window to return to practice open.
The Browns backfield health situation remains very fluid, so stay up-to-date on the latest injury news to make the smartest waiver bids on Tuesday night.
OT Tytus Howard (knee) was questionable to return on Sunday.
Next four matchups (CLV): Wk6 vs BLT (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 at TEN (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 at PIT (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at NO (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Dallas Cowboys
Sell George Pickens
Dallas threw on 76% of its plays and ran 13 times, gave it away three times, and failed on a 4th-and-3 at its own 43 down 14.
Dak Prescott went 24-of-42 for 316 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions, with no sacks and no carries, on every snap (100%). His 114 first-half yards (9-of-20) rose to 202 in the second half (15-of-22) as Dallas chased the game, and he threw both interceptions after halftime.
George Pickens became the passing game. 31.8% adjusted share and 14 true targets for 9 catches, 130 yards and a touchdown, after 8.3% in Week 4.
94 of those yards and the score in the second half. His snap share was 88% (86% in Week 4), and he had two red-zone targets, including an end-zone incompletion at the 1.
CeeDee Lamb caught 2 of 5 targets for 9 yards (11.4% adjusted share), four of them in the first half, including three straight incompletions on one drive. He played 57% of the snaps, down 29 points from 86% due to his injury.
Lamb is believed to be dealing with a “quad bruise” that is “not considered to be serious,” Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Therefore, there’s a case to be made that Pickens becomes a sell-high after his best game of the season, fueled by Lamb missing time in the second half.
Javonte Williams carried 12 times for 45 yards and a touchdown (14 for 44 true) and caught 2 of 3 targets for 17 yards (6.8% adjusted share). His snap share rose to 85% from 74%, but touches fell to 15 from 24 as Dallas ran just four more times once behind 21-10. Both red-zone carries came in the first quarter (no gain at the 4, then the 1-yard score).
Jake Ferguson caught 3 of 6 targets for 19 yards (15.9% adjusted share; 7 true with a pass-interference-erased target at the Tampa Bay 4) on 83% of the snaps, up from 71%. Two of his four second-half targets were the 4th-and-3 incompletion and the game-ending interception.
Ryan Flournoy caught 3 of 4 targets for 90 yards (a 9.5% official/9.1% adjusted target share): a 48-yard deep-middle catch before the half, a 16-yard catch and a 26-yard catch, plus the intercepted 3rd-and-3 target (Q3, 10:51); the two-point attempt to him (Q4, 5:26) was incomplete and is not a target. Snap share: 41 snaps (68%) — down 6 points from 58 (74%)
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said Friday that X-rays on OT Tyler Guyton’s back came back negative. They have also opened the 21-day practice window for OG Tyler Smith to return.
Next four matchups (DAL): Wk6 at GB (Road, Sunday Night 10/18, 7:20 PM CT) | Wk7 at PHI (Road, Monday Night 10/26, 7:15 PM CT) | Wk8 vs ARZ (Home, Sunday 11/1, 12:00 PM CT) | Wk9 at IND (Road, Sunday 11/8, 12:00 PM CT). See Open Item 7.
Detroit Lions
Sell Jameson Williams
Detroit won 45-21 because it was efficient where Arizona was not: they out-gained Arizona 412 net yards to 327 (6.3 per play on 65 plays to 4.6 on 71) and 24 first downs to 20, finished 4-for-4 in the red zone and 4-for-4 on fourth down, and never turned the ball over, while Arizona punted five times in the first half, was sacked five times for 28 yards, threw an interception and turned the ball over on downs (Q4 13:03).
Detroit’s three opening drives gained nine plays and −9 net yards with no first down, and it then scored on all seven drives from Q2 14:18 through Q4 5:10 (six touchdowns and a field goal) to lead 24-7 at the half, 38-14 after three quarters and 45-14 with five minutes left. Arizona held the ball 30:11 to 29:49 and went 8-for-18 on third down, while Detroit went 4-for-13, and 202 of Jacoby Brissett’s 292 yards came in a second half behind 31-7.
Jared Goff completed 19 of 30 for 271 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions (125.8 rating) and was sacked three times for 22 (all before halftime)
Jahmyr Gibbs had 31 of the backs’ 37 opportunities (83.8%, from 91.7% of 24) and Sione Vaki 6 (16.2%). Gibbs carried 25 times for 151 yards (6.0) and two touchdowns and caught 5 of 6 targets for 56; Detroit led by 17 or more, and 13 of the carries and 87 of the yards came in the second half. Gibbs played 70% of the snaps (87% in Week 4) and Vaki 35% (17%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team at 38.7% adjusted target share (20.8% in Week 4) on 12 true targets; Gibbs had 19.4% (13.2%), Sam LaPorta 16.1% (24.5%), Jameson Williams 12.9% (15.1%), and Isaac TeSlaa 6.5% (17.0%), on 31 adjusted attempts, 22 fewer than in Week 4.
St. Brown caught 6 of 11 official targets for 69 yards (38.7% adjusted on 12 true targets, including the 16-yard catch erased by an ineligible-downfield foul). Snap share: 57 (86%), from 96% in Week 4. The target share is dominant, with three third-down catches that all converted, and two failed looks inside the 5.
LaPorta caught all 5 targets for 88 yards and a 38-yard touchdown (16.1% adjusted, from 24.5%); 59 snaps (89%), from 79%. Per NGS…the Lions TE has a 125.5 passer rating when targeted, the highest of any Lions pass-catcher, and his 0.18 EPA per route leads all TEs with at least 50 routes. LaPorta is currently averaging a career-best 15.3 fantasy points per game.
Jameson Williams caught 2 of 4 for 47 yards and two touchdowns (12.9% adjusted); 59 snaps (89%), from 99%. Hold: both catches were touchdowns, so the line is scoring-dependent. It was a season-high performance and Williams’s first touchdown of the season. Curiously, his best fantasy performance came with a season-low in receptions (two), a subtle note that this could be a sell-high opportunity.
Jamo has had a resurgence over the last few games, but he is still lagging behind St. Brown and LaPorta in terms of target share in the Lions offense. His air yards share is elite and leads the team at 31%, but the 15.4% target share is fourth on the team according to Next Gen Stats.
TeSlaa (WR; 2 targets, both incompletions, 6.5% adjusted, from 17.0%; 26 snaps, 39%, from 82%) and Brock Wright (1 target for 11 yards, 3.2%; 44 snaps, 67%, from 35%): Monitor, a role cut for TeSlaa (his snaps fell 43 points as Wright’s rose 32) and a blocking-role starter for Wright (1 target on 44 snaps).
Detroit was 4-for-4 in the red zone and 3-for-3 on goal-to-go, and Gibbs was tackled at the Arizona 1-yard line three times (Q2 12:45, Q3 1:54 and Q3 1:35); he scored on the first, and Goff’s 4th-and-1 sneak scored after the other two. St. Brown had two incompletions from inside the 5.
LB Devin White suffered a broken forearm during Sunday’s 45-21 win over the Cardinals,
Next four matchups (DET): Wk6 BYE | Wk7 vs GB (Home, Sunday 10/25, 4:25 PM) | Wk8 vs MIN (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at MIA (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Denver Broncos
Sell J.K. Dobbins & Buy RJ Harvey
Denver won 23-17 despite being out-gained (224 net yards to Los Angeles’ 237, 3.9 per play to 3.8 on 57 plays to 63) because it went 1-for-12 on third down and still won the turnover count 3-1 and turned the giveaways into points: 20 of the game’s 40 points followed a turnover (Denver 13 off three Chargers giveaways, Los Angeles 7 off Bo Nix’s lost fumble).
Denver also had 18 first downs to 14, six on penalties, for 93 yards.
Nix completed just 16 of 27 for 123 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions (82.8 rating) and was sacked once.
Denver led 10-3 at the half on 129 net yards to Los Angeles’ 74, trailed 17-10 after Kimani Vidal’s 42-yard run off Nix’s fumble (Q3 1:07), tied it on Courtland Sutton’s 5-yard touchdown (Q4 8:56) and went ahead for good on Will Lutz’s 19-yard field goal at Q4 5:10, after Evan Engram’s catch left him tackled at the Los Angeles 1-yard line.
J.K. Dobbins had 20 of the backs’ 26 opportunities (76.9%, from 38.2% of 34) and R.J. Harvey had just 4 (15.4%, from 50.0%). Dobbins carried 18 times for 68 yards (3.8), caught two of 2 targets for 6 yards and scored from 2 yards; 41 of the yards came in the fourth quarter, and Harvey’s 10-catch role from Week 4 disappeared. Dobbins played 52% of the snaps (32 of 62, from 32%) to Harvey’s 37% (from 44%).
The 20 opportunities (0.63 per snap) and 77% back share are the most for Dobbins this season and came with a snap lead over Harvey, but a 3.8 average, the fourth-quarter skew, his long injury history, and the last red-zone snaps going to Nix suggest the sell-high approach recommended last week is still the best approach here.
Still, it’s noteworthy that Dobbins had his best game from both production and usage with Sean Payton calling plays for the first time in 2026.
Payton took over the play-calling duties in an effort to jump-start the offense and avoid sluggish starts – but that was still not the case in Week 5.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos offense posted a 27.5% success rate and 2.5% explosive play rate through the first three quarters — on pace for their lowest marks of the season. However, the Broncos recorded a 47.1% success rate and 11.8% explosive play rate in the fourth quarter.
Seattle up next is not going to help the Denver offense overcome the slow starts.
Jaylen Waddle caught 2 of 5 official targets for 19 yards (23.3% adjusted on 7 true targets, including two erased by pass interference). Snap share: 40 (65%), from 45 (68%) in Week 4. Waddle was the team’s leader in targets on a thin passing game (7 true targets on 40 snaps), but just a meager 2.7 yards per true target.
Evan Engram caught 4 of 4 for 55 yards (13.3% adjusted, from 11.9%), including a 34-yard catch and the 6-yard catch to the 1-yard line; 30 snaps (48%), from 44 (67
Courtland Sutton caught 2 of 3 for 18 yards and a 5-yard touchdown (13.3% adjusted on 4 true targets, from 14.3%); 50 snaps (81%), from 48 (73%), the most of any Denver receiver. 3 real targets on 50 snaps, all coming in the fourth quarter.
Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey (WRs; 2 targets each, 6.7% each, all before halftime; 39 snaps, 63%, from 48%; 12 snaps, 19%, from 27%; and 14 snaps, 23%).
Pat Bryant went on IR earlier in the week.
Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) was also ruled out for the rest of Sunday’s contest against the Chargers.
Next four matchups (DEN): Wk6 vs SEA (Home, Thursday 10/15, 8:15 PM) | Wk7 at ARZ (Road, Sunday 10/25, 4:05 PM) | Wk8 vs KC (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 at CAR (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Houston Texans
Add Woody Marks & Jaylin Noel & Buy Marvin Harrison Jr. & Sell Dalton Schultz
Houston outgained Tennessee 329 to 187 (5.2 yards per play to 3.2) and won 26-3 without a turnover, while Tennessee gave the ball away twice in the first half (a Cam Ward interception and a Tyjae Spears lost fumble) and Houston turned both into field goals. The margin is mostly takeaways, penalties, and the fourth quarter: Houston kicked four field goals and scored on a Stroud keeper and a 9-yard Jaylin Noel catch (2-for-4 in the red zone), and Tennessee took four fourth-quarter sacks (40 yards) while 74 receiving yards were erased by holding penalties.
Houston scored 26 on 63 plays with four field goals (45, 35, 26, 53) and was 0-for-2 in the red zone in the first half.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Texans defense had its best performance of the season, allowing just 3 points, 187 total yards and 57 rushing yards in a win over the Titans. The Texans have held their opponent under 90 rushing yards in 7 straight games dating back to last season, the longest active streak in the NFL and the longest streak in Texans history.
The Texans ruled out David Montgomery (groin) for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Titans. Texans HC DeMeco Ryans said he considers Montgomery’s groin injury to be “week to week”.
Woody Marks had 19 of the backs’ 24 opportunities (79.2%, from 41.2% in Week 4) and all 16 after Montgomery’s last touch at Q2 15:00; Montgomery had 5 carries for 11 yards and was ruled out in Q3.
Marks carried 15 times for 62 yards (87 true, counting a nullified 24-yard touchdown) and caught 4 of 4 targets for 23 yards (11.1% adjusted share, up from 3.1%). Snap share: 56 (85%), from 24 (44%) in Week 4. The lead back for 16 straight opportunities and 85% of the snaps (19 opportunities on 56 snaps is 0.34 per snap)
Stroud ran 2nd-and-goal from the 2 for the touchdown, and both 3rd-and-1 conversions, and Marks’ 24-yard touchdown run was nullified by holding. Marks was stopped at the TEN 2 on 1st-and-goal from the 3.
Nico Collins caught 5 of 7 targets (8 true) for 56 yards (22.2% adjusted share, down from 25.0%), with a deep incompletion erased by pass interference and no red-zone target. Snap share: 47 (71%), from 38 (69%) in Week 4. Still the most-targeted receiver in a 34-attempt game, and he had no touchdown after scoring twice in Week 4.
Xavier Hutchinson caught 4 of 5 targets (6 true) for 65 yards (16.7% adjusted share, down from 18.8%), including two 18-yard plays, and had an erased red-zone target at the TEN 16. Snap share: 27 (41%), from 17 (31%) in Week 4. Hold: five targets (six true) on 27 snaps is 0.19 per snap, the best rate among Houston’s receivers, but 41% of the snaps is a part-time role (up from 31%).
Jaylin Noel caught all 5 targets for 41 yards and a 9-yard touchdown (13.9% adjusted share, up from 9.4%) and had two red-zone catches (26% target rate per route run). Snap share: 30 (45%), down from 34 (62%) in Week 4. The touchdown came on a third down; he averaged 8.2 yards per catch, and his snaps fell 17 points, so the role remains volatile. And with another new pass-catcher added to the fold, Noel will be very tough to trust (also, Tank Dell’s return is looming).
Still, though, the Noel-stans need to take the wins when we get them. Season-high in targets last week. Noel’s slot flexibility might keep him on the field more. And HC Demeco Ryans said they are trying to dial up more plays for their second-year WR even if he is not playing every single down. Noel is maximizing his opportunities, so add him as the coaching staff puts more on his plate (remember he missed a lot of time this offseason with an injury). Noel is averaging north of 2 yards per route run this season.
Kayshon Boutte caught 3 of 5 targets for 38 yards (13.9% adjusted share, up from 12.5%), four of them in the second half, including a 23-yard catch on 3rd-and-11. Snap share: 39 (59%), from 34 (62%) in Week 4.
Dalton Schultz caught 3 of 4 targets for 30 yards (11.1% adjusted share, up from 6.3%), all four targets in the first half and a red-zone incompletion at the TEN 20. Snap share: 34 (52%), down from 35 (64%) in Week 4. Season low for Schultz in snaps and routes (47%). Has only surpassed 39 yards once this season (Week 2 versus the Bengals).
Safety Jalen Pitre left with a shoulder injury and didn’t return during Sunday’s 26-3 win over the Titans.
The team also traded a future 2027 second-round pick for former Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr., reuniting MHJ with his former college QB, with whom he had a ton of success at Ohio State. Obviously, if he was dropped on shallow waivers, he should be added immediately.
The move also gives Stroud another weapon. And he was already low-key balling beforehand despite the compromised offensive line.
Per Next Gen Stats, Stroud is averaging career highs in completion percentage over expected (6.7%), passing success rate (47.6%), and EPA per dropback (0.10); it helps that he’s seeing a career-low 31.7% pressure rate. And he still hasn’t turned the ball over since Week 1.
Stroud made Collins a household name in his third season. I wouldn’t put it past him to make Marv Jr. a usable fantasy asset in the second half of the 2026 season. His integration into the offense will likely come at the expense of guys like Boutte, Hutchinson, and Schultz. And we know Collins has had lower-body tissue re-aggravations before.
Next four matchups (HOU): Wk6 vs JAX (London, neutral site; Houston is the listed visitor; Sunday 10/18, 9:30 AM) | Wk7 vs NYG (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 BYE | Wk9 at LAC (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM).
Green Bay Packers
Hold MarShawn Lloyd & Sell Kaleb Johnson
Despite the Packers posting their second-lowest called-pass rate of the season (57.6%), Jordan Love had one of his best passing days of the year, completing 25 of 31 passes for 367 yards—his third-most ever—and two touchdowns. His 137.5 passer rating was his highest ever in a game he has started, while his 0.43 EPA per dropback set a new season-high and clocked in as one of his 10 best single-game marks according to Next Gen Stats.
Five Jordan Love completions of 36 yards or more (53, 50, 46, 42 and 36) account for 227 of his 367 yards (61.9%).
The Packers recorded five takeaways (3 INTs, 2 fumble recoveries) in their Week 5 win over the Bears.
Green Bay outgained Chicago 428 to 246 (7.3 yards per play to 3.6) and won 31-7 without a turnover, while Chicago gave the ball away five times (two Tyson Bagent interceptions, a Case Keenum interception, a Rome Odunze catch-and-fumble and a Keenum sack-fumble).
MarShawn Lloyd carried 10 times for 31 yards and two touchdowns and caught 1 of 2 targets for 6 yards (6.1% adjusted share, down from 15.2%). Snap share: 27 (44%), from 33 (55%) in Week 4.
Lloyd drew the start and led the Packers’ backfield in snaps (27 to P.Strong’s 25) and took both goal-to-go carries, though a 44% snap share, 3.1 yards per carry, and a fall from five targets to two kept the ceiling modest.
Given Lloyd’s struggles as a rusher and the Packers’ bad offensive line, I understand the sell-high aspect of Lloyd’s 2-TD performance. But the upcoming matchups are so good for him that he can still produce if he maintains a grip on high-value touches in the backfield (specifically in the red zone).
Lloyd scored both rushing touchdowns, from the 7 and the 4, with 12 of the backs’ 28 opportunities (42.9%); Strong had 9 and Kaleb Johnson 7 (all late, with Green Bay up big late in the game).
Still no timetable on the potential (if any) return of Josh Jacobs.
Kaleb Johnson carried 7 times for 26 yards with no targets, but had no touch until Q4 8:26 with Green Bay ahead by 24 points; the 23-yard run was 88% of his total yardage. Snap share: 9 (15%), from 17 (28%) in Week 4.
Sell: seven carries on 9 snaps, none before Q4 8:26, with Pierre Strong ahead of him on 25 snaps and no target or red-zone role.
Strong filled in as the true RB2. He carried 5 times for 7 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 11 yards (12.1% adjusted share), with 9 opportunities, six of them in the first half. Snap share: 25 (41%). Add in deep leagues only: a real third-down and short-yardage role on 41% of the snaps, two fewer than Lloyd’s 27, with 9 opportunities (0.36 per snap).
His expanded role came after RB Chris Brooks (ankle) went to injured reserve on Saturday.
Christian Watson caught 6 of 8 official targets (9 true) for 143 yards and two touchdowns (27.3% adjusted share), both scores from outside the red zone (42 yards and 53 yards). Snap share: 49 (80%), from 41 (68%) in Week 4.
Watson is averaging career-highs with 21.9 fantasy points per game, 3.1 yards per route and 11.9 yards per target while leading the Packers in receptions (26), yards (474) and touchdowns (6) — only Jaxon Smith-Njigba has more receiving scores (per NGS).
Matthew Golden caught 6 of 7 targets for 123 yards plus the two-point conversion (21.2% adjusted share, down from 24.2%), with 108 of his yards in the second half and three official red-zone targets without a touchdown. Snap share: 47 (77%), from 53 (88%) in Week 4. Buy: a scoring-zone role that is owed a touchdown.
Tucker Kraft caught all 5 targets for 64 yards (15.2% adjusted share, down from 24.2%), 46 of them on one play. Snap share: 47 (77%), from 55 (92%) in Week 4.
DT Javon Hargrave likely sustained a season-ending torn Achilles, Bill Huber of SI.com reports.
CB Benjamin St-Juste (hamstring) was questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Bears.
Next four matchups (GB): Wk6 vs DAL (Home, Sunday Night 10/18, 8:20 PM) | Wk7 at DET (Road, Sunday 10/25, 4:25 PM) | Wk8 vs CAR (Home, Thursday Night 10/29, 8:15 PM) | Wk9 at NE (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM).
Indianapolis Colts
Buy Josh Downs
Daniel Jones went 24-of-44 for 267 yards, no touchdown and no interception (72.8 rating), was sacked once, and ran 3 times for 4 yards. Snap share: 71 (100%), from 66 (100%) in Week 4. 44 attempts and no touchdown pass for a second straight game.
Per Next Gen Stats, it was an unusually pass-heavy day from Indianapolis — their 65.2% called pass rate set a new season-high
Jonathan Taylor had 19 of the backs’ 25 opportunities (76.0%, from 75.0%) on 73% of the snaps but averaged 3.0 per carry (4.8 in Week 4) and had four red-zone carries for 0 net yards with two stops at the PIT 1; Seth McGowan had the other 6 (24.0%).
Taylor carried 15 times for 45 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 37 yards (8.7% adjusted share, from 11.8%). Snap share: 52 (73%), from 47 (71%) in Week 4. Hold: 18 touches and 19 opportunities on 52 snaps. 20 of the 45 rushing yards came on one run, and the four goal-line carries gained nothing, which should regress upward.
The goal line went to a tight end after three failures. Taylor (twice) and Daniel Jones were stopped at the PIT 1, then Tyler Warren ran in the 4th-and-1 touchdown; after that, the Colts were 0-for-4 passing inside the 20 on their two field-goal drives (Open Item 5).
Three players tied at 19.6% adjusted target share: Tyler Warren, Keenan Allen (back from his Week 4 absence with 9 targets) and Laquon Treadwell; Josh Downs had 15.2% target share. Woof.
Downs caught 3 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 47 yards (15.2% adjusted share, up from 11.8%), including 42 yards on one first-half catch, with an 8-yard catch erased by holding. Snap share: 60 (85%), from 51 (77%) in Week 4.
But Downs has run so cold the last 2 games, with matchups favoring perimeter receivers over slot WRs.
He played the most snaps and ran the most routes of any Colts WRs – but 7 true targets is a terrible 0.12 per snap, the lowest rate of the four main pass targets in Week 5. But the other WRs did so little with their targets – I’m betting on Downs getting back into the higher target range.
Warren caught 7 of 9 targets for 83 yards and ran in the 1-yard touchdown on 4th-and-1 (19.6% adjusted share, up from 14.7%). Snap share: 67 (94%), from 56 (85%) in Week 4. The second-year TE was by far the most efficient target in the offense on a near-every-down role (9 targets on 67 snaps), including a 29-yard catch to the PIT 3 and a 20-yard catch; the goal-line carry is just icing on the cake of his awesome role.
Allen caught 5 of 9 targets for 45 yards (19.6% adjusted share), but six of the nine targets came in the fourth quarter. Snap share: 32 (45%), Not Active in Week 4 (52 snaps, 73% in Week 3). The same 9 targets as Week 3 on 20 fewer snaps.
Treadwell caught just 2 of 8 official targets (9 true) for 34 yards (19.6% adjusted share, from 17.6%), with no catches in the second half. Snap share: 57 (80%), from 56 (85%) in Week 4.
Next four matchups (IND): Wk6 vs TEN (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 at MIN (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 at JAX (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs DAL (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Bhayshul Tuten & Add Brenton Strange
Jacksonville outgained Philadelphia 408 to 232 (6.0 yards per play to 3.9), held the ball 35:02 to 24:58, and still needed a 57-yard field goal on the final snap, because it went 0-for-3 in the red zone (four plays from the 1-yard line produced -6 yards), turned the ball over on downs at the PHI 1 and the PHI 5, and was flagged 13 times for 100 yards, with five holdings erasing 46 real yards. Per NGS, the Jaguars have won each of their last 2 games despite 26 total penalties. They are the first team since the Seahawks in Weeks 10 and 11 of the 2011 season to win consecutive games with 13+ penalties in each game.
Trevor Lawrence went 24-of-39 for a season-high 331 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception, and ran 3 times for 25 yards (a fourth, +6, was erased by holding); the defense recovered both of his sack-fumbles. The red zone was the problem (0-for-3, including two incompletions from the 1).
Bhayshul Tuten carried 22 times for 72 yards (24 for 87 true after two holding-erased runs) and caught 2 of 3 targets for 24 yards (7.5% adjusted share), with a season-high 25 of the Jags’ backs’ 30 overall touches (up from 76.0%). He had 3 red-zone carries for -2 yards, including the 4th-and-1 from the PHI 1 that lost 6. Snap share: 49 (68% was a season-high), from 36 (59%) in Week 4. 68% of the snaps and 83% of the touches are a lead workload.
Chris Rodriguez had 2 carries (5 official yards, 12 true) and a 6-yard catch (2.5% adjusted share), including the no-gain 1st-and-1 from the PHI 1 that replay upheld. Snap share: 9 (12%), from 15 (25%) in Week 4. Stash only as Tuten’s handcuff; Le’Quint Allen had more snaps (13).
Parker Washington caught 6 of 9 targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns (22.5% adjusted share, up from 11.5%): 74 yards and a score in the first half, 50 and a score in the second. Both touchdowns came from outside the red zone. Snap share: 59 (82%), from 49 (80%) in Week 4. The WR1 share is back, with some touchdown luck baked in.
Brenton Strange caught 7 of 8 targets for 68 yards (20.0% adjusted share, down from 34.6%), five of the catches in the first half, and was tackled at the PHI 1 twice (Q2 and Q4) without scoring. Snap share: 58 (81%), down from 53 (87%) in Week 4. The role is intact, and two catches at the 1 point toward touchdown regression in his favor.
Per Next Gen Stats, Strange leads the Jaguars with 21 targets, 17 receptions, and 195 yards over the last 3 games despite ranking third on the team in routes in that span with 75. He hasn’t scored since the season opener, and his 17.0% air yards share and 12.5% red zone target share both rank fourth on the team,
Josh Cameron caught 3 of 6 targets for 43 yards (15.0% adjusted share, up from 11.5%), including a 32-yard catch, and had two red-zone targets; his 90-yard opening-kickoff return touchdown was nullified by offsetting penalties. Snap share: 22 (31%), from 22 (36%) in Week 4. 6 targets on 22 snaps is the highest target rate on the team.
Jakobi Meyers caught 2 of 3 targets for 37 yards (10.0% adjusted share; 4 true targets with a holding-erased 13-yard catch) and was the target on the failed 4th-and-5 at the PHI 5. Snap share: 61 (85%), from 50 (82%) in Week 4.
Brian Thomas Jr. air-balled on 3 targets, catching fewer passes than Travis Hunter (despite 22 more routes run).
LT Anton Harrison was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Eagles in London due to a knee injury.
CB Montaric Brown (hamstring) was listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Eagles.
Next four matchups (JAX): Wk6 vs HOU (Neutral – Wembley, London, Sunday 10/18, 9:30 AM ET) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs IND (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at BAL (Road, Thursday Night 11/5, 8:15 PM ET).
Kansas City Chiefs
Add Cyrus Allen & Emmett Johnson & Hold Travis Kelce
From Week 5’s Beyond The Waiver Wire:
“Patrick Mahomes completed 15 of 30 passes for 225 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions (97.2 rating), was sacked twice for 15 yards, and carried twice for 0 yards (a 1-yard scramble and a kneel-down).
He finished 10-of-18 for 139 yards and a touchdown (Thornton, 2 yards), with a 7-yard sack and a 1-yard scramble; in the second half, he went 5-of-12 for 86 yards and a touchdown (Tyquan Thornton, 8 yards), with an 8-yard sack and the kneel-down. Three completions — Worthy’s 41-yarder (3rd-and-10), Thornton’s 42 (1st-and-10 at the LV 47) and Thornton’s 55 (3rd-and-5) — account for 138 of his 225 yards; the other 12 completions gained 87. KC won this game by generating explosive plays, not their usual down-to-down dominance.
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2-of-4 for 10 yards and two touchdowns in the red zone (both to Thornton: 2 yards on 3rd-and-2 from the LV 2 and 8 yards on 2nd-and-8 from the LV 8; incompletions to Gray on 3rd-and-10 and to no named target on 1st-and-8), a −7 sack on 2nd-and-3 at the LV 3, and an incomplete two-point pass to Walker from the LV 2.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes posted a 3.04-second average time to throw, his season-high, while facing a season-high 39.4% pressure rate from the Raiders defense. Under pressure, Mahomes completed just 1 of 2 of 10 passes for 96 yards and was sacked twice, compared to 13 of 20 for 129 yards and both touchdowns from a clean pocket.
Kenneth Walker carried 22 times for 177 yards (8.0 YPC, long 76), scored two touchdowns, and caught his only target for 2 yards (3.1% official/adjusted; the two-point target from the LV 2 is not an official target). Snap share: 45 snaps (75%) — up from 38 (73%) in Week 3; 23 official opportunities on 45 snaps (51%). His first half was 12 carries for 62 yards (4, 2, 3, 1, 0, 5, 0 in the first quarter, then 11, 21, 6, 7, 2) and 1 target/1 catch/2 yards; his second half 10 carries for 115 yards and both touchdowns (6, 3, a 76-yard run at Q3 0:30, −1, 3, 2, a 2-yard touchdown, a 22-yard touchdown, 1 and 1).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 4 red-zone carries for 9 yards and a touchdown (+5 from the LV 7, 0 from the LV 2, +2 from the LV 5 and +2 TOUCHDOWN from the LV 2); three carries from the 5 or closer (0, +2, +2 TD); none from the 1. Four carries went for 11 or more yards (130 yards); his other 18 gained 47 (2.6 per carry). Compared to Week 3 (18 carries/70 yards and a rushing touchdown plus 2 targets/2 catches/3 yards and a receiving touchdown, 38 snaps/73%), carries rose from 18 to 22, yards from 70 to 177 (3.9 to 8.0 per carry), rushing touchdowns from 1 to 2, and targets fell from 2 to 1, on a snap share that rose only 2 points. Takeaway: an every-down, goal-line and clock-killing role confirmed by 22 carries and all four red-zone runs, with rookie Emmett Johnson at zero carries.
Per Next Gen Stats, Walker continues to average a career-high snap share (75.3%) and intended touch rate (56.1%). I don’t think it’s crazy to see KC dial back his workload, given they had every incentive to ride him hard to start the year with their early Week 5 bye.
Johnson (caught his only official target for 10 yards (3.3% official; 2 true targets/2 catches/13 yards, 6.3% adjusted, adding a 3-yard catch nullified by Kansas City’s Illegal Formation at Q2 12:51). Snap share: 16 snaps (27%) — unchanged from 14 (27%) in Week 3; those 16 snaps produced no carry and one official target (two true). He returned two kickoffs for 49 yards (long 25) and downed a punt on special teams at the LV 12. He remains a high-end handcuff that Walker managers should RUN to waivers this week after he likely gets dropped (or add him heading into Week 6 after KC returns from their bye week). Probable candidate for a post-bye rookie usage bump.
Tyquan Thornton caught 5 of 8 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns (26.7% official, 25.0% adjusted — the team lead).
Snap share: 38 snaps (63%) — up from 24 (46%) in Week 3; he matched Jalen Royals (38), who had 2 targets to his 8.
His first half was 4 targets/3 catches/48 yards and a touchdown (4, the 2-yard touchdown on 3rd-and-2 from the LV 2, and a 42-yard catch on 1st-and-10 at the LV 47, plus a Q2 12:21 incompletion); his second half 4 targets/2 catches/63 yards and a touchdown (the 8-yard score from the LV 8 and a 55-yard catch on 3rd-and-5, plus two deep-middle incompletions on 3rd-and-18 and 3rd-and-7).
Red-zone/goal-line usage: 2 red-zone targets, 2 catches, 10 yards, 2 touchdowns (Kansas City’s only two passing touchdowns). 97 of his 111 yards came on two catches (42 and 55). But he left after the 55-yard catch (Q4 3:35) and did not return. Compared to Week 3 (2 targets/2 catches/22 yards, 7.7% adjusted, 24 snaps/46%), targets rose from 2 to 8, the share by 17.3 points, his snap share by 17 points, yards from 22 to 111, and touchdowns from 0 to 2 — a role jump in a game where Rashee Rice’s volume disappeared after he also got hurt. His health (and Rice’s hamstring) is the Week 6 question after the bye.
Thornton is viewed as out indefinitely after dislocating his ankle.
Xavier Worthy caught 4 of 7 targets for 70 yards (23.3% official, 21.9% adjusted). Snap share: 45 snaps (75%) — down from 43 (83%) in Week 3; his count rose by 2 snaps, but the share fell because Kansas City ran 60 snaps against 52. His first half: 4 targets/3 catches/63 yards (a 41-yard catch on 3rd-and-10, 12 on 2nd-and-15, 10 on 3rd-and-3, and a deep-right incompletion on 3rd-and-4); his second half: 3 targets/1 catch/7 yards (a 7-yard catch, then incompletions on 2nd-and-7 and a deep-right 3rd-and-8 on the final drive). Red-zone/goal-line usage: no red-zone target (his 41-yard catch ended at the LV 7 but began at the LV 48). Compared to Week 3 (2 official/3 true targets, 3 catches/27 yards true, 11.5% adjusted, 43 snaps/83%; shares of 22.2%, 14.9% and 11.5% in Weeks 1–3), targets rose from 2 official (3 true) to 7, the share by 10.4 points, yards from 27 to 70, and he reversed a three-week decline, while his snap share fell 8 points (83% to 75%). 4 of his seven targets came on third down (2 catches for 51 yards, both converted); volume bounced back, but the catch pattern was boom-bust. The team may have no choice but to rely more on Worthy given the injuries to their other WRs.
Rashee Rice had no official targets and one true target (a 7-yard catch on 1st-and-10 at the KC 31, Q1 8:04, nullified by Defensive Offside; 3.1% adjusted). Played just 6 snaps (10%) — down from 40 (77%) in Week 3; after exiting due to a hamstring injury. Compared to Week 3 (9 targets, 7 catches, 88 yards, 34.6% adjusted — the team lead), targets fell from 9 to 1 (true), a 31.5-point drop in share and a 67-point drop in snap share.
Noah Gray (TE) caught 2 of 3 targets for 17 yards (10.0% official, 9.4% adjusted): an 11-yard catch (1st-and-10, Q1 5:23), an incompletion on 3rd-and-10 at the LV 10 (Q2 1:30, the red-zone target), and a 6-yard catch on 3rd-and-11 (Q4 10:29, punt). Snap share: 41 snaps (68%) — up from 33 (63%) in Week 3. First half 2 targets/1 catch/11 yards; second half 1 target/1 catch/6 yards. Compared to Week 3 (3 targets/3 catches/39 yards, 11.5% adjusted), targets held at 3, share fell 2.1 points, and yards fell from 39 to 17—though his snap share rose 5 points, so the lineup-card move did not cost him snaps.
Royals (38 snaps/63%, up 44 points from 10 snaps/19% in Week 3, when he had 1 target/1 catch/11 yards) had 2 targets and no catch (both incompletions, on 1st-and-10 at the LV 48 and 3rd-and-3 at the LV 45); He benefited the most in playing time from the Rice injury.
Cyrus Allen (WR; 5 snaps/8%; Week 3: 1 snap/2%) had a deep-middle incompletion on 2nd-and-10 (Q1 4:40).”
Travis Kelce caught just 2 of 4 targets for 15 yards back in Week 4 (13.3% official, 12.5% adjusted). Snap share: 50 snaps (83%) — up from 41 (79%) in Week 3; he played more snaps than any other Kansas City skill player and still only drew 4 targets. His first half was 3 targets/2 catches/15 yards (5 on 2nd-and-7, 10 on 2nd-and-4, and an incompletion on 2nd-and-3); his second half was 1 target/0 catches (1st-and-10, Q3 9:42). No red-zone target, no touchdown. Compared to Week 3 (2 official/3 true targets, 3 catches/66 yards with a touchdown, 11.5% adjusted, 41 snaps/79%), his true target count rose from 3 to 4, the adjusted share by 1.0 point, and his snap share by 4 points, but his yards fell from 66 to 15, and the Week 3 touchdown did not repeat.
Kelce was a screaming sell-high a few weeks back, but the season-long equation has changed somewhat with the KC WR injuries.
However, there’s still a case to sell-high on the 37-year-old TE after his extremely hot YAC to start the year, especially since managers will likely wave away the lack of volume in the last two games given his new outlook. But post-bye week…I’d at least put him on the trade block.
With KC coming out of their bye week, I’d be looking to stash rookie WR Cyrus Allen. Tyreek Hill (even if he does sign with KC at some point) also likely won’t be ready to play until November based on the reports regarding his injury.
Andy Reid also mentioned potentially seeing a larger role for Allen post-bye week. Stash him.
Next matchups: Wk6 vs LAC (Home) | Wk7 at SEA (Road) | Wk8 at DEN (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM).
Las Vegas Raiders
Add Mike Washington Jr. & Kirk Cousins & Hold Ashton Jeanty
Brock Bowers has been simply awesome since returning to the lineup after his knee injury, catching at least six passes for 86 yards and a touchdown in each of his three games. His 10 targets (27% target share), eight catches, 110 yards, and first-quarter touchdown grab all led the Raiders on Sunday. He did lose a fumble on a converted 4th-and-3.
In just three games, he has taken the team lead in target share (20.2%) and ranks second in air yards share (23.6%) while ranking tied for first in red zone targets with six. He’s the only TE with three 20-plus-point games this season (Next Gen Stats).
Kirk Cousins completed 19 of 28 passes for 243 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions (106.7 rating).
Ashton Jeanty had 16 of the backs’ 25 opportunities (64.0%, from 65.7%): But just 10 carries for 27 yards (2.7 per carry) and 3 catches for 50, with 42 of his 77 scrimmage yards on two fourth-quarter catches, and Dylan Laube scored the 3rd-and-2 touchdown from the NE 2 one snap after Jeanty’s carry from the NE 5; Jeanty still has no rushing touchdown. Brutal.
Another disappointing game for my buy-low. But Jeanty was on the injury report this week with an ankle/foot injury. Klint Kubiak also admitted post-game that he didn’t stick with the run game long enough in the loss to New England.
I can’t guarantee that Jeanty is 100% healthy or that it’s not stemming from his offseason injury scare. HC Klint Kubiak even admitted as much, saying that Jeanty is playing hurt.
Monitor his injury report status this week.
Because I’ll admit he looked worse in this game than in Week 4 – so that might make him a hold more than a straight-up buy/sell if you are gun-shy regarding his health.
64.0% of the backfield opportunities is still the lead role, but 16 opportunities against 23, 2.7 a carry, and Laube’s goal-line touchdown leave no rushing touchdown in 88 carries on the year for the Raiders’ second-year RB.
Tre Tucker caught 4 of 5 targets for 41 yards (13.5% adjusted, from 16.7%) and lost 6 yards on two carries. Snap share: 45 (75%), from 56 (67%) in Week 4.
Cody White caught 2 of 4 targets for 44 yards (10.8% adjusted, from 7.4%), 28 of them on one fourth-quarter catch, and started with Jalen Nailor, who was inactive due to a concussion. Snap share: 37 (62%), from 52 (62%) in Week 4.
Michael Mayer (TE) caught his one official target for 2 yards (5.4% adjusted on 2 true targets, from 18.5%).
DT Tonka Hemingway (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Patriots.
Next four matchups: Wk6 vs BUF (Home, Sunday 10/18, 4:25 PM) | Wk7 vs LAR (Home, Sunday 10/25, 4:25 PM) | Wk8 at NYJ (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at SF (Road, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM).
Los Angeles Chargers
Add Keaton Mitchell
Justin Herbert completed 14 of 24 for 121 yards, a touchdown and an interception (68.2 rating), was sacked five times for 39 yards, and ran 6 times for 54.
Omarion Hampton had 15 of the backs’ 35 opportunities (42.9%, from 31.4%), Kimani Vidal 10 (28.6%) and Keaton Mitchell 10 (28.6%, from 45.7%), but Hampton played the fewest snaps of the three: 20 (30%) to Vidal’s 28 (42%) and Mitchell’s 23 (34%).
Hampton carried 14 times for 33 yards (2.4) with one target on two routes run; Vidal gained 57 on 8 carries, 42 of them on one touchdown run; Mitchell gained 11 on 6 and caught 3 of 4 targets for 18. Mitchell’s snap share held about steady and the receiving role held, but the carry share collapsed.
This was Hampton’s first backfield lead in three weeks on volume (15 opportunities on 20 snaps, 0.75 per snap, with 8 of the 14 first-half back opportunities), but it came on the smallest snap share of Los Angeles’ three backs, down 5 points, at 2.4 per carry with one red-zone carry for no gain and none inside the 5. Woof.
Even with Hampton as the “starter,” this backfield has morphed into a dreaded three-way committee. It’s hard to imagine Vidal not continuing to seize carries after his explosive TD in Week 5. Vidal led the team with 57 yards and a touchdown on his eight carries. He had more offensive snaps than Keaton Mitchell (23) and Omarion Hampton (20), and his 56 scrimmage yards were nearly as much as the other two combined (68), per Next Gen Stats.
Tre’ Harris (hamstring) was questionable for Sunday’s contest against the Broncos. Harris caught 2 of 4 for 16 yards (15.4%, from 15.6%) with all four targets in the first half. Harris’ injury has been labeled as week-to-week.
Ladd McConkey did not play but was active for emergency purposes only. He is expected to practice this week.
Quentin Johnston also did not play in this game due to a chest injury.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling led the target tree at 19.2% adjusted (3.1% in Week 4) on 5 true targets; if MVS leads the team in routes run, that’s not good for your offense.
Charlie Kolar, Tre’ Harris, and Keaton Mitchell each had a 15.4% target share, while Oronde Gadsden’s fell from 25.0% to 3.8% on one target in Week 5. Gadsden tied Kolar in routes run (79% route participation).
Kolar caught 3 of 4 for 37 yards (15.4%) and lost a fumble that Denver turned into a touchdown; 51 snaps (76%), the most of Los Angeles’ tight ends (Not Active in Week 4). If you are desperate…you could add Gadsden given all the injuries to the Chiefs WRs. But the Kolar usage makes that even feel like a very thin bet (also not a long-term solve at tight end).
If the Chargers fall to 0-6, I have to imagine somebody is getting fired before they go onto their Week 7 bye week.
LB Bud Dupree (neck) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Broncos.
Next four matchups (LAC): Wk6 at KC (Road, Sunday 10/18, 4:25 PM) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 at LAR (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM) | Wk9 vs HOU (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM).
Los Angeles Rams
Add Tyler Higbee
Matthew Stafford completed 40 of 54 for 383 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions (7.1 per attempt; 57 attempts true), was sacked once, and was 5-for-5 in the red zone with 7-of-10 red-zone passes for 37 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Puka Nacua commanded an INSANE 24 targets on MNF — the most by a player since Brandon Marshall had 28 in Week 14 of 2009 — on 47 routes and caught a career-high 17 of them for 138 yards and a touchdown (42% target share). That 51.1% target rate was the highest any WR with at least 40 routes in a game has recorded in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). And those 17 catches tied CeeDee Lamb’s from Week 4 for the most any player has recorded this season.
Tyler Higbee set a new season high with 83 yards on five catches on Monday night, good for second on the Rams, per Next Gen Stats. Caught 5 of 6 official targets (8 true) for 83 yards, a 14.0% adjusted share. Snap share: 55 (67%), up from 55 (65%). 3 catches of 10 to 30 yards made the line, but with Colby Parkinson back at 65% of the snaps, the tight end role is still shared three ways.
Ever since Terrance Ferguson (ankle) went down in Week 3, Higbee has been the top tight end in Los Angeles’ offense with at least five catches and 60 yards in each of the last three games — he’s the TE6 in that span with 45.2 points. His 212 yards over the last three weeks trail only Brock Bowers (312) and Sam LaPorta (216) among tight ends (NGS).
Higbee’s been uber-productive despite running a route on just 65% of dropbacks in Week 5. That’s the one caution, given that his target share is officially under 12% in back-to-back games since Nacua returned to the lineup in Week 4. Ferguson is also expected to return after his 4-week stint on IR.
Kyren Williams scored 19.6 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Bills, continuing his streak of totaling 15 or more points in every game this season (Next Gen Stats).
The only other RBs who have done that in 2026 are Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, and Kenneth Walker III. Williams rushed for 49 yards and a touchdown on his 16 carries and caught six of his eight targets (16% target share) — both of which ranked second on the Rams — for 27 yards. He’s up to 27 receptions this year, which is tied with Gibbs for the most among running backs, while his 200 receiving yards rank fourth.
Twenty-two of those grabs have come in the last three weeks, tied for fifth among all players. Averaging a career-best 21.9 points per game, Williams’ expanded receiving role and red-zone usage have been an absolute boon for his fantasy value. Williams carried 16 times for 49 yards and a touchdown and caught 6 of 8 for 27 (15.8% adjusted). Snap share: 60 (73%), from 70 (83%).
Blake Corum only played 26.9% of offensive snaps on Monday night, but made the most of his opportunities, with his first touchdown since Week 16 of 2025. He picked up 19 yards and that score on his five carries while catching three of his four targets for a career-high 53 yards. Corum scored from the BUF 1 after a pass-interference spot and caught a 34-yarder.
All but one of those yards came after the catch, highlighted by a 34-yard burst in the third quarter. Still, he’s averaging a career-low 45.9% touch rate with a 27.8% snap share, according to Next Gen Stats. Williams is still RB1, but Corum is still a very solid RB who would explode with an expanded role.
Davante Adams’ snaps fell from 95% to 73%, Jordan Whittington’s from 50% to 13%, and Konata Mumpfield’s from 27% to 7%, while Colby Parkinson (Not Active in Week 4) played 53 snaps (65%) and TuTu Atwell rose from 23% to 39%.
Adams caught 5 of 7 for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns (12.3%, from 16.7%); 60 snaps (73%), from 80 (95%). Hold: both touchdowns came on his only two caught red-zone balls; on 60 snaps and a 12.3% target share.
Next four matchups (LAR): Wk6 vs ARZ (Home, Sunday 10/18, 4:05 PM) | Wk7 at LV (Road, Sunday 10/25, 4:25 PM) | Wk8 vs LAC (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:05 PM FOX) | Wk9 at WAS (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM FOX).
Miami Dolphins
Add Malik Washington & Buy Ollie Gordon
Ollie Gordon had 18 of the backs’ 24 opportunities (75.0%, from 68.8% of 16), all carries: 18 for 88 yards and a 1-yard touchdown, but 60 of the yards came on four runs, and Miami’s backs had no targets.
The 75.0% opportunity share on 65% of the snaps and the first-drive touchdown are lead-back usage, but his other 14 carries gained 28 yards, the receiving work disappeared, and the 1-yard snaps went to Willis twice.
Jaylen Wright had 6 carries for 11 yards, three of them while Gordon was out in Q4. Snap share: 9 (14%), from 12 (31%) in Week 4.
Gordon is progressing well as Miami’s RB1, setting season-highs in rate of rushes over expected (44.4%), success rate (50.0%), and missed tackles forced on runs (7) versus the Bengals (NGS).
Worm made a great case to buy Gordon on the Week 6 Buys and Sells show, and I very much agree. The cost won’t be much for a player on a bye week on a bad offense. But Gordon has been on this “bad” offense for the last 3 weeks, and scored at least 14 half-PPR points (top-17 weekly production).
Malik Washington led the tree at 29.6% adjusted (29.4% in Week 4), and Kevin Coleman had 25.9% (23.5%), with both Willis interceptions on Coleman’s targets; Greg Dulcich rose to 18.5% from none last week, and Chris Bell fell to 7.4% from 17.6%, and wide receivers took 70.4% of the 27 attempts (76.5% in Week 4).
Washington caught 6 of 8 targets for 43 yards and ran once for 18 (29.6% adjusted, from 29.4%). The same 29.6% share for the second straight week. Snap share: 53 (80%), from 34 (87%) in Week 4.
Coleman caught 3 of 7 targets for 30 yards and a 3-yard touchdown (25.9% adjusted, from 23.5%); snap share is 42 snaps (64%), from 51%.
Dulcich caught 4 of 5 targets for 37 yards and the two-point conversion (18.5% adjusted, from 0.0%), including a 4th-and-1 conversion. Snap share: 49 (74%), from 20 (51%) in Week 4.
Bell had 2 targets and no catch (7.4% adjusted, from 17.6%) and ran once for 26 yards; snap share is 47 snaps (71%), from 82%
Malik Willis completed 15 of 27 for 137 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions (51.0 rating), was sacked 3 times for 23 yards and ran 8 times for 74 yards and a touchdown; he lost a fumble on the Q4 sack and scored the final touchdown on a 1-yard sneak.
Next four matchups (MIA): Wk6 BYE | Wk7 at NYJ (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 vs NE (Home, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 vs DET (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Minnesota Vikings
Sell Aaron Jones & Buy Jordan Mason
Minnesota won 23-13 by out-gaining New Orleans 364 to 142 net yards (5.4 to 3.3 per play), running 68 plays to 43, holding the ball 39:37 to 20:23 and converting 9 of 18 third downs to the Saints’ 2 of 10, and the margin stayed at 10 only because it lost two fumbles, an Aaron Jones carry at the New Orleans 7 and a Myles Price catch that was returned 87 yards for a touchdown, which produced all 13 of New Orleans’ points (6 of them on defense). The Vikings were 2-for-4 in the red zone, and penalties erased three of their plays (a Justin Jefferson catch, a Kyler Murray scramble, and another incompletion); the Saints had one red-zone trip, ran every snap to Kendre Miller, and threw no pass inside the 20.
Aaron Jones had 28 of the backs’ 30 opportunities (93.3%, from 87.5%). Jones carried 25 times for 113 yards and a touchdown and caught 3 of 3 targets for 4 yards (9.7% adjusted share, from 19.5%). Snap share: 62 (87%), from 57 (73%) in Week 4; 28 opportunities on 62 snaps is 0.45 per snap. Per Next Gen Stats, Jones has increased his scoring output in every game of the season and is one of the few RBs to finish every contest with 10 or more points. He received a career-high 28 touches, turning in 113 rushing yards — his most in a game since 2023 — and scored his first touchdown since Week 1. His 88.2% snap share was his highest since Week 8 of 2024, and he was the only Vikings RB to record a carry.
Jordan Mason’s Week 7 return from injured reserve is the date to plan around for moving away from Jones because this workload is just not sustainable.
Jones ranks sixth in touches this season (109) – on pace for 370 touches. He has had 300 touches once (160 last season).
In the post-game presser, Kevin O’Connell praised Jones as a warrior on game day, just to give a subtle nod to the return of his wingmate Mason after the bye week.
O’Connell doubled down on Jones being a major player in the backfield (S/O Coachspeak Index) on Monday, stating that Mason is going to be a big part of the offense.
The Vikings downgraded T.J. Hockenson to out for Sunday’s game against the Saints due to a concussion.
Justin Jefferson returned as the top target (25.8% adjusted, Not Active in Week 4), and Hockenson (13 targets and 31.7% in Week 4) had one target before leaving with his injury.
Jefferson caught 6 of 7 targets (8 true) for 79 yards and a touchdown (25.8% adjusted share), including 21 and 19 yards on third-and-short and the 15-yard score. Snap share: 63 (89%). The highest share in the offense, 11.3 yards per target, and 63 of 71 snaps say he is back as a full-time receiver with no lingering effects of the ankle injury.
But the Saints didn’t change the approach of targeting TEs versus the Saints defense.
Gavin Bartholomew target share rose to 19.4% from 2.4%. He caught 5 of 6 targets for 33 yards (19.4% adjusted share, from 2.4%), including a 2-yard catch on 3rd-and-1 at the NO 10 that set up the Jones touchdown. Snap share: 44 (62%), from 17 (22%) in Week 4.
Price caught 3 of 4 targets for 20 yards (12.9% adjusted, from 4.9%), returned three kickoffs for 83 yards and two punts for 57, and fumbled a catch that was returned 87 yards for the New Orleans touchdown
Kyler Murray completed 24 of 30 for 229 yards and a touchdown (109.6) and ran 10 times for 51, with seven scrambles for 54 (three converting a third down) and a first-half 15-of-18 for 143.
Despite the rushing production, Murray actually produced well from the pocket in Week 5. Next Gen Stats show Murray was effective passing from the pocket in the Vikings’ Week 5 win over the Saints, completing 22 of 25 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown.
Murray has increased his yards-per-attempt and success rate from the pocket in two straight games, with a season-high 8.5 yards per attempt and a 51.9% success rate in Week 5. Murray also added 54 rushing yards and three first downs on seven scramble runs, the most by a Vikings quarterback in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Minnesota was 2-for-4 in the red zone, with Jefferson’s 15-yard touchdown catch and Jones’ 8-yard run; the other two trips ended on fumbles.
Next four matchups (MIN): Wk6 BYE | Wk7 vs IND (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 at DET (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 vs BUF (Home, Monday 11/9, 8:15 PM).
New England Patriots
Add Efton Chism & Sell Hunter Henry
Drake Maye completed 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns (150.9 rating) and ran for a fifth score; the score was 21-7 at the half.
Career-high 39.46 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Raiders. His 150.9 passer rating is the highest any QB with at least 25 dropbacks has had this year, while his 17.5% completion percentage over expected and 0.76 EPA per dropback each rank third (per Next Gen Stats).
It was a masterclass performance with Maye’s deep ball; 2 weeks in a row, the Raiders got cooked by explosive pass plays (Bills next week, rut-roh).
On throws over 10 air yards, Maye completed 8 of 11 for 206 yards and three touchdowns—the third time in his career he’s completed over 70.0% of his downfield pass attempts (minimum 10 attempts), per Next Gen Stats.
Second-year WR Kyle Williams caught all three of his targets for a career-high 91 yards against the Raiders, setting a career high in completed air yards (75).
With TreVeyon Henderson exiting Sunday’s game early with an ankle injury, Rhamondre Stevenson got most of the work at RB, playing 44 snaps and getting 16 touches for 85 total yards, including his second touchdown in as many games (NGS). Before being subbed out in garbage time, Stevenson had received all but two of New England’s carries from RBs after Henderson went down and got a team-high four red-zone touches.
Stevenson had 16 of the backs’ 28 opportunities (57.1%, from 52.9%): 13 carries for 64 yards and a touchdown and 3 catches for 21 (20 of 32 true, once two erased catches and two erased runs are counted).
Snap share: 53 (71%), from 50 (66%) in Week 4. Hold: the lead back on 71% of snaps (up from 66%) and a 57.1% share (16 opportunities, 20 true, on 53 snaps), with no injury listed after your Stevenson popped up on the injury report leading into Week 5.
Corey Kiner took 6 of the second half’s 12 opportunities, including a 32-yard run (but also fumbled).
Henderson carried 4 times for 22 yards and caught 1 of 1 target for 16 yards (2.5% adjusted, from 5.4%), all in the first half, and was “Out of the game” by Q3. He will miss multiple weeks with a high-ankle sprain.
Efton Chism III led the Patriots target tree at 15.0% adjusted (10.8% in Week 4). Chism caught 5 of 6 targets for 57 yards and carried once for 2 (15.0% adjusted, from 10.8%). Snap share: 57 (76%), from 34 (45%) in Week 4; he started.
He also ad-libbed a hook-and-ladder play to Henderson after he caught a short crosser. Ran a route on a season-high 69% of the dropbacks.
Eli Raridon (TE) caught 5 of 5 targets for 57 yards, all in the second half (12.5% adjusted, from 5.4%). Snap share: 43 (57%), from 44 (58%) in Week 4. Hold: his snaps held at 57%, and he caught a perfect pass and a 31-yarder in one half of a 28-point game.
Hunter Henry (TE) caught 3 of 4 official targets (5 true) for 44 yards and an 11-yard touchdown, all in the first half (12.5% adjusted, from 13.5%); snap share is 48 snaps (64%), from 49 (64%) in Week 4. Henry was also downed at the LV 1 on a 4th-and-3 catch before a Mondre rushing TD.
He also ran a season-low in route participation at 60%. It’s hard to trust Henry’s fantasy viability with all these WRs and Raridon breaking out as a rookie tight end, aside from being TD-or-bust.
Demario Douglas caught 4 of 5 targets for 65 yards and two touchdowns (12.5% adjusted, from 8.1%). Snap share: 37 (49%), from 35 (46%) in Week 4.
Both touchdowns were catches, one from 35 yards, on a five-target base and 49% of the snaps. Romeo Doubs caught 1 of 3 official targets (5 true, two on pass-interference flags) for 16 yards (12.5% adjusted, from 24.3%); snap share is 62 snaps (83%), from 49 (64%) in Week 4. Despite playing the most, Doubs was the least productive of the Patriots wideouts.
Kyle Williams caught 3 of 3 for 91 yards and a 34-yard touchdown (10.0% adjusted, from 5.4%); snap share is 27 snaps (36%), from 19 (25%) in Week 4. 91 yards on two plays and 27 snaps. Ran the fourth-fewest routes.
OT Will Campbell (knee) was also listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Raiders (later reported as day-to-day). The Pats also suffered more defensive injuries.
EDGE Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder) and CB Charles Woods (shoulder) were both questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Raiders. The Patriots also placed Mack Hollins (calf) on injured reserve Saturday, before Week 5.
But on the positive front…HC Mike Vrabel said A.J. Brown could return this week. Matchups are divine for this passing game to stay hot.
Next four matchups (NE): Wk6 vs NYJ (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 at CHI (Road, Thursday 10/22, 8:15 PM, Prime) | Wk8 at MIA (Road, Sunday 11/1, 4:25 PM) | Wk9 vs GB (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM).
New Orleans Saints
Add Jordyn Tyson & Kendre Miller & Sell Alvin Kamara
Tyler Shough completed 16 of 25 for 96 yards with two interceptions (38.1 rating), 3.8 yards per attempt after 6.0 in Week 4, and New Orleans threw no pass inside the 20.
Per Next Gen Stats: Shough completed 11 of 16 passes for 68 yards and an interception against the blitz in Week 5 against the Vikings. The Vikings’ defense blitzed on 10 of 11 (90.9%) dropbacks in the first half but only 6 of 15 (40.0%) in the second half. They generated more pressure on Shough when not blitzing (60.0% pressure rate) than when blitzing (43.8%), and Shough held the ball nearly a full second longer when facing four or fewer pass rushers (3.38s compared to 2.63s). Shough averaged 3.8 yards per attempt and a 34.6% passing success rate, both his lowest marks as a starting quarterback.
The Vikings defense allowed just one explosive play in their Week 5 win over the Saints, their lowest explosive play rate allowed (2.3%) in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016).
Only 7 of the 13 points came from the Saints offense.
Shough also continues to deal with a hand injury that forced him to hand the ball off with the other hand in Week 5.
Kendre Miller had 10 of the backs’ 20 opportunities (50.0%, from 32.1%) and all four red-zone carries, scoring from the MIN 2 after being down at the 1 and stuffed at the 1.
Miller carried 10 times for 30 yards and a 2-yard touchdown (11 for 43 true), with no target. Snap share: 14 (31%), from 19 (26%) in Week 4, behind C.J. Donaldson’s 19 (42%).
Miller’s 10 of the 20 opportunities and all four red-zone snaps came on 14 snaps
Donaldson led the backfield in snaps because of his pass protection.
Alvin Kamara, who started, fell to 5 (25.0%, from 50.0%) with two catches behind the line of scrimmage and no snap inside the 20. Kamara carried 3 times for 12 yards and caught 2 of 2 targets for −6 yards (7.7% adjusted, from 13.2%). Snap share: 12 (27%), from 28 (38%) in Week 4, the fewest of the three Saints backs.
Devaughn Vele caught 4 of 6 official targets (7 true) for 26 yards (26.9% adjusted share, the team lead; 38 yards true). Snap share: 43 (96%), from 66 (89%) in Week 4.
Chris Olave caught 4 of 6 targets for 46 yards (23.1% adjusted), with the 3rd-and-12 interception target at Q4 2:56. Snap share: 41 (91%), from 64 (86%) in Week 4. Snaps and share held (22.6% in Week 4), but targets halved with attempts (12 to 6).
Juwan Johnson caught 4 of 5 targets for just 16 yards (19.2% adjusted, from 20.8%), including a 4th-and-7 catch that stopped one yard short. Snap share: 29 (64%), from 58 (78%) in Week 4.
The entire Saints offense struggled to get off the ground in a brutal matchup outside the one Miller drive. I’d consider the whole offense a buy-low given how taking anything away from the NFL offenses immediately after facing the Vikings is just not worth strong declarative stances.
Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) is said to be making progress and feeling good but isn’t expected to be activated from injured reserve until Week 7 at the soonest, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Kellen Moore later confirmed on Monday he would not return to practice.
Next four matchups (NO): Wk6 at NYG (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 vs PIT (Saint-Denis, France, neutral site; Pittsburgh is the listed visitor; Sunday 10/25, 9:30 AM) | Wk8 BYE | Wk9 vs CLV (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
New York Giants
Add Jameis Winston
New York failed to win due to two lost fumbles (Jameis Winston’s Q2 strip-sack led to a Washington field goal; Cam Skattebo’s overtime fumble came at the WAS 24) and three missed field goals (50, 57, and 46 yards, the last on the first overtime drive).
Winston’s line came with volume and a rushing floor: 33-of-54 for 326 yards, 3 touchdowns and no interceptions (34-of-56 for 333 true), 5 carries for 27 yards, 2 sacks for 21 and one lost fumble. New York was 3-for-3 in the red zone and 1-for-1 on goal-to-go.
After a rocky first half, Winston got going in the second half despite the rainy conditions in Week 5.
New York out-gained Washington 408 net yards to 378 on 84 plays to 60 (4.9 per play to 6.3), made 29 first downs to 20, held the ball 39:25 to 30:35 and converted 8 of 17 third downs to Washington’s 4 of 12, but trailed 12-3 at the half and 27-13 after Jayden Daniels’ second rushing touchdown and two-point pass (Q4 11:05).
Skattebo had 16 of the backs’ 28 opportunities (57.1%, from 65.5%), Najee Harris 6 (21.4%, from 31.0%), and Tyrone Tracy 6 (21.4%, from 3.4%). Skattebo carried 13 times for 59 yards, 33 of them in overtime, and lost the overtime fumble. Snap share: 56 (63%), from 43 (64%). Hold: a stable 16-opportunity role and more receiving work, but no red-zone touch and a critical lost fumble inside field-goal range.
Harris was stopped for −2 on 2nd-and-1 from the WAS 1. 5 carries for 9 yards, one target for 5; 16 snaps, 18%, unchanged.
Harris wasn’t punished for fumbling last week and got more red-zone touches at Skattebo’s expense.
Malik Nabers caught 11 of 20 official targets (12 of 21 true) for 121 yards (135 true) and a 17-yard touchdown, a 36.2% adjusted share. Snap share: 80 (90%), up from 51 (76%). Three red-zone targets, including the tying touchdown.
Isaiah Likely (TE) caught 11 of 13 (12 of 15 true) for 94 yards (101 true) and two touchdowns, a 25.9% adjusted share. Snap share: 71 (80%), up from 44 (66%). He caught both touchdowns on his only two red-zone targets, and his share fell 12.8 points as Nabers took over.
Per Next Gen Stats: Likely ran 87.0% of his routes from the slot in Week 5, catching 9 of his 11 targets for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns when doing so. The Giants tight end is now averaging career-highs with 1.9 yards per route and a 32.2% target rate, both of which rank in the top-10 of TEs with at least 10 targets this year
Even so, Likely will be an elite option next week versus the Saints’ TE-funnel defense.
Darnell Mooney (2 catches for 14 on 7 targets, 8 true; 13.8% adjusted, from 6.5%; 58 snaps, 65%, from 55%). Malachi Fields (2 catches for 20; 3.4%, from 9.7%; 64 snaps, 72%) and Theo Johnson (TE; 2 catches for 35 on the two fourth-quarter scoring drives; 5.2%; 43 snaps, 48%, from 33%).
I should also note that J.J. McCarthy was active in this game and had a select package of plays that resulted in two carries for two yards. But based on Winston’s last few strong games, it seems like his job is safe as QB1 in New York (currently sitting at 3-1-1).
Safety Tyler Nubin (neck) was listed as questionable to return to Sunday’s game against the Commanders.
CB Colton Hood was evaluated for a concussion.
Next four matchups (NYG): Wk6 vs NO (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk7 at HOU (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM FOX) | Wk8 BYE | Wk9 at PHI (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM FOX).
New York Jets
Hold Braelon Allen
New York won 17-12 because Cleveland’s punter fumbled an aborted snap at the CLV 42 with 4:01 left and Braelon Allen scored three plays later (Q4 3:01), ending Cleveland’s only lead (12-10 on Denzel Boston’s 29-yard touchdown at Q4 6:15, after Andre Szmyt’s extra point hit the right upright) after 3:14. The Jets out-gained Cleveland 276 to 198 net yards (4.2 yards per play to 3.0, 66 plays to 65), held the ball 31:25 to 28:35, went 8-for-17 on third down to 4-for-16 and sacked Deshaun Watson 8 times for 53 yards, while each team lost two fumbles and neither had an official interception.
Geno Smith completed 17 of 30 for 182 yards and a touchdown (85.7 rating); Watson completed 15 of 33 for 155 yards and a touchdown (69.6) and ran 6 times for 40. Penalties erased nine plays (four Cleveland pass plays and five New York snaps, including a Smith interception that a Cleveland offside nullified); no touchdown was called back, and neither team scored a red-zone touchdown (Cleveland 0-for-1, New York 0-for-2; all three touchdowns began outside the 20).
Garrett Wilson led the tree at 34.4% adjusted (26.7% in Week 4) with 7 catches for 104 yards and a 32-yard touchdown on 11 targets.
Per Next Gen Stats: Wilson saw a 61.9% air yards share, ranking as one of the 10 highest marks any WR has logged in a game this season. His season-long target share is up to 30.2%, a mark that only trails Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while his 43.6% air yards share ranks in the top five of all players
Tim Patrick played 93% of the snaps and had 4 true targets (12.5%). Kenyon Sadiq caught 2 of 3 targets for 3 yards (9.4% adjusted, from 26.7%) and lost a fumble on his only red-zone target. Sadiq didn’t return to Sunday’s game versus the Browns due to a concussion (but he did clear the protocol, so he is not expected to miss time).
Mason Taylor caught 3 of 3 for 24 yards on 59% of snaps.
Braelon Allen carried 24 times for 116 yards and a touchdown and caught 1 of 4 targets for 0 yards. Snap share: 60 (86%), from 30 (94%) in Week 4. Buy: 28 opportunities on 60 snaps (0.47 per snap), all 16 second-half back carries and the winning touchdown with Breece Hall Not Active for a second week; New York led for 25:00 of possession and 78 of the 116 yards came on five runs.
Per Next Gen Stats: Allen had perhaps his best day as a pro, setting career highs with 24 carries and 116 yards while scoring his fifth rushing touchdown. He received all but three touches among Jets RBs, as Isaiah Davis had two carries and a catch for 17 combined yards. His 86.4% snap share only ranked behind his career-high 93.8% mark from last week. And his 1.4 rush yards over expected per carry was his highest average in a game with at least five carries. Davis carried twice for 8 yards and caught 1 of 2 targets for 9; snap share: 10 (14%), from 2 (6%).
Isaiah Williams caught 1 of 2 targets for 16 yards (6.3% adjusted, from 20.0%) and returned four punts for 67 yards and a kickoff for 36.
Next four matchups (NYJ): Wk6 at NE (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 vs MIA (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 vs LV (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at KC (Road, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Philadelphia Eagles
Add Dameon Pierce & Buy Dallas Goedert & Hold DeVonta Smith
Tight end Dallas Goedert’s return rebuilt the target tree in Philly. Goedert and Dontayvion Wicks tied for the lead at 23.3% adjusted share each; Darius Cooper fell to 7.0% from 24.1% and Zach Ertz to 4.7% from 17.2%.
But even with the return of the starting tight end…the Eagles offense continues to struggle behind a patchwork offensive line. The offense had a 62-yard play and little else: 1.2 yards per carry, one rushing first down, four second-half three-and-outs and a 0-for-2 fourth-down line.
Philadelphia scored on two plays that mattered (a Travis Hunter pass interference that set up Will Shipley’s touchdown and a 62-yard Darius Cooper catch), then went three-and-out on four of its seven second-half drives after Will Shipley left in the third quarter and Dameon Pierce took the whole backfield.
Jalen Hurts went 21-of-40 for 220 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions. Ran twice for 2 yards. Sixty-two of those yards came on one throw to Cooper (4.1 per attempt on the other 39), and the second half was 10-of-24 for 98 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Hurts averaged 2.53 seconds to throw in the Eagles’ Week 5 loss to the Jaguars, the second-quickest mark of his career (Week 4 of 2025 vs. the Buccaneers, 2.35 seconds). Hurts completed six of eight quick passes for 106 yards and a touchdown in the first half alone (under 2.5 seconds), more passing yards than he totaled in any full game from Weeks 1-4. In the second half, he completed just five of 14 quick passes for 39 yards. Despite his quick release, Hurts was still pressured on 54.8% of his dropbacks (23 of 42) and threw into a tight window on a season-high 30.0% of his passes (less than one yard of separation) after doing so just 8.8% of the time through the first four weeks, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
Ergo, it’s hard to justify buying anybody too aggressively on this Eagles offense, but DG plays tight end. The bar is already so low.
After missing the last few games, Goedert caught 6 of 9 targets for 38 yards (10 true targets and 55 true yards once Cooper’s offensive pass interference erased a 17-yard catch; 23.3% adjusted share). Snap share: 43 (69%) while running a route on 68% of dropbacks.
Dontayvion Wicks caught 5 of 8 targets for 63 yards (23.3% adjusted share, up from 20.7%; 10 true targets counting two pass-interference-erased shots), 2 targets in the first half and 6 in the second (including an overthrow that likely would have resulted in a touchdown). Hunter’s interference on his 3rd-and-17 target set up the touchdown. Snap share: 52 (84%), from 56 (92%) in Week 4.
Makai Lemon caught 5 of 7 targets for 43 yards (16.3% adjusted share, down from 20.7%), five of them after halftime, including the failed 4th-and-3 at the JAX 43. Snap share: 50 (81%), from 45 (74%) in Week 4. Currently the third option behind Goedert and Wicks.
Darius Cooper caught 2 of 3 targets for 71 yards and a 62-yard touchdown (7.0% adjusted share, down from 24.1%). Snap share: 53 (85%), from 55 (90%) in Week 4.
The team is devoid of healthy playmakers, and the Eagles’ upcoming matchups are great for Goedert. The schedule is a reason to be slightly optimistic about holding onto DeVonta Smith as he looks to return from his hamstring injury.
The Eagles ruled out Shipley (foot) for the remainder of Sunday’s game versus the Jaguars in London. The Eagles RB suffered a partial tear of his plantar fascia during Sunday’s loss that could now sideline him for multiple weeks, according to Adam Schefter.
Dameon Pierce took all 12 second-half back opportunities after the injury to Shipley in Week 5. Pierce carried 11 times for 14 yards and caught 2 of 5 targets for -2 yards (11.6% adjusted share), taking 16 of the backs’ 23 touches and all of the second-half work. He had no red-zone carries (one -3 catch at the JAX 14). Snap share: 48 (77%).
13 total touches on 48 snaps.
With Saquon Barkley still dealing with a hamstring injury, Tank Bigsby on IR, and Shipley hurt, the Eagles’ RB injuries are mounting. Pierce needs to be added.
HC Nick Sirianni remains “hopeful” about Barkley and Smith returning soon.
LB Jalyx Hunt (ankle/knee) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Jaguars in London.
Next four matchups (PHI): Wk6 vs CAR (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 vs DAL (Home, Monday Night 10/26, 8:15 PM ET) | Wk8 at WAS (Road, Sunday Night 11/1, 8:20 PM) | Wk9 vs NYG (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Add Germie Bernard & Pat Freiermuth & Buy Jaylen Warren
Pittsburgh won 34-22 while being outgained in plays (54 to 69) and held the ball four minutes less (28:00 to 32:00), because two Jaylen Warren plays (an 80-yard touchdown catch and a 50-yard touchdown run) supplied 130 of its 352 net yards and 14 of its 34 points, and because it finished both red-zone trips with Pat Freiermuth touchdowns (2-for-2) while Indianapolis settled for five field goals and went 1-for-3 in the red zone.
The Colts ran four red-zone carries for 0 net yards and were stopped at the Pittsburgh 1-yard line three times before a tight end scored.
Aaron Rodgers has had at least 3 touchdown passes in 3 straight games for the first time since Weeks 11 to 14 of his 2021 MVP season with the Packers (Next Gen Stats).
Jaylen Warren carried 15 times for 101 yards and a touchdown (17 for 113 true) and caught 6 of 6 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown (17.6% adjusted share, from 15.0%). Snap share: 52 (87%), from 70 (97%) in Week 4.
Buy: He’s the lead back, with 21 opportunities on 52 snaps (0.40 per snap) while Lew Nichols took 8 snaps (13%) for one carry; the 130 yards on two plays will regress, but the workload is the part to bank on the rest of the season.
Rico Dowdle is expected to return next week. Mike McCarthy mentioned in his post-game presser after the win over the Colts that the plan was to have a 1-2 punch between Dowdle and Warren…but “Jaylen’s crushing it right now.” S/O Coachspeak Index.
Therefore, I don’t think we see a dramatic shakeup in the pecking order of the Steelers’ backfield in Week 6. If anything, Dowdle cracks open the buying window ever so slightly.
WR Roman Wilson is expected to miss a couple of weeks after leaving Sunday’s 34-22 win over the Colts with a finger injury. The Steelers placed Michael Pittman Jr. (foot) on injured reserve Saturday.
Given the injuries to the Steelers WRs…expect more from Germie Bernard. The coaching staff is focused on getting him more opportunities.
Bernard led the target tree at 29.4% adjusted (5.0% in Week 4); Pat Freiermuth had 20.6%, Warren 17.6%, and D.K. Metcalf fell to 14.7% from 22.5%.
Bernard caught 6 of 9 official targets (10 true) for 80 yards (29.4% adjusted share), including 25 yards on a 3rd-and-2 and 21 deep right. Snap share: 55 (92%), from 29 (40%) in Week 4. Add: the top target in the offense after a 5.0% Week 4, now a full-time receiver (92% of the snaps against 40%, 10 true targets on 55 snaps) – tied Metcalf for the team high in routes run.
Freiermuth scored both red-zone touchdowns, the goal-line target on each trip, and Pittsburgh was 2-for-2 in the red zone. Patty F caught 5 of 7 targets for 44 yards and 2 touchdowns (20.6% adjusted share, from 12.5%) and converted a 4th-and-1 direct snap. Snap share: 41 (68%), from 54 (75%) in Week 4. Back-to-back games with at least a 71% route run rate.
Metcalf caught 3 of 4 official targets (5 true) for 12 yards and ran once for 11 (14.7% adjusted share, from 22.5%), and fumbled once without a loss. Snap share: 55 (92%), from 70 (97%) in Week 4. His snaps held (92%, from 97%), but the targets did not: 5 true on 55 snaps (0.09 per snap) with CB Sauce Gardner on him.
Darnell Washington caught 2 of 3 targets for 12 yards (8.8% adjusted share, from 12.5%). Snap share: 38 (63%), from 51 (71%) in Week 4.
Next four matchups (PIT): Wk6 at TB (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 at NO (Saint-Denis, France, neutral site; Pittsburgh is the listed visitor; Sunday 10/25, 9:30 AM) | Wk8 vs CLV (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 BYE.
San Francisco 49ers
Add Christian Kirk & Sell Mike Evans
According to Next Gen Stats, the 49ers had more giveaways (3 in Week 5) and takeaways (4 in Week 5) than they had in their first four games of 2026 combined (2 and 3, respectively). The 49ers scored 32 points against the Seahawks in Week 5, up from a combined 26 points in three matchups (including playoffs) in 2025. San Francisco was 3-for-3 in the red zone.
San Fran’s defense generated a 45.7% pressure rate in Week 5 against the Seahawks, their highest in a game since the start of last season.
Brock Purdy was pressured on 17 of his 34 dropbacks in Week 5 against the Seahawks (50.0%), the third-highest pressure rate he has faced in a game in his career. That rate was more than double his 23.8% mark through Weeks 1-4, which was the lowest in the NFL. The Seahawks also sacked Purdy three times after he went four games without a sack. Purdy completed seven of 13 attempts for 72 yards under pressure, compared to 12 of his 16 attempts for both touchdowns and an interception from a clean pocket (NGS).
Purdy’s 189 yards and 2 touchdowns came with 3 sacks and an interception, and his real rushing fell to 8 yards (31 in Week 4); the interception was intended for Jacob Cowing and led to a Seattle touchdown on the next three plays (Cowing also had a muffed punt).
Even so, the 49ers QB delivered time again and again with several off-script plays.
Mike Evans was the engine of the 49ers’ offense on Sunday, leading the team with 10 targets (33.33% target share), seven catches, 113 yards — the most anyone has had against Seattle this year — and a 2-yard touchdown and the successful two-point conversion on 24 routes according to Next Gen Stats. He was a contested-catch machine — his 30.8% catch rate over expected was the highest among WRs with at least 10 targets in a game this season, and his five catches in tight windows tied for third-most by any player this year. And he posted a 68.0% air yards share, the fourth-highest any player has recorded in a game this season. It’s a credit to Evans’ toughness that he was able to be this productive despite battling through a rib injury. Back-to-back weeks, Evans has gutted through his injuries to be the No. 1 WR on the Niners.
Still feels like this might be a prime-time sell-high opportunity, especially with his stock so high ahead of a juicy matchup versus the Commanders.
He’s no spring chicken (33 years old), and we know the annual hamstring injury is going to rear its ugly head at some point.
Brandin Cooks also caught a touchdown from Purdy in the fourth quarter of Week 5, his first reception and touchdown in his 49ers career. He was elevated into a larger role because of the injuries the 49ers are dealing with to their WRs.
Cooks’ snap share rose 28 points to 40% on two targets, and Jordan Watkins started and played 22 snaps (37%, from 38%) with no targets. In terms of routes run behind Samuel, the order was Cowing, Cooks, and then Watkins. The team is also anticipating getting back WR Christian Kirk, but not for this week. Worth a stash in deeper formats.
Deebo Samuel is scheduled to undergo an MRI after exiting Sunday’s win over the Seahawks due to a hamstring injury (slated to miss some time). Samuel caught 2 of 3 for 21 yards (10.0% adjusted, from 20.0%), carried twice for 4 yards and lost a fumble at Q3 5:06; snap share: 26 (43%), from 44 (67%) in Week 4, with 5 touches (3 targets and 2 carries) before he left the game.
Christian McCaffrey had 14 of the backs’ 20 opportunities (70.0%, from 76.9% of 26) and Kaelon Black 6 (30.0%). McCaffrey gained 68 yards on 11 carries (6.2) and scored from 11 yards; Black had 4 of the backs’ 6 fourth-quarter carries, three on the go-ahead field-goal drive, and gained 16 yards on 6. Snap share: 11 (18%), from 17 (26%) in Week 4.
CMC also caught 3 of 3 targets for 15 yards (10.0% adjusted, from 16.7%). Snap share: 49 (82%), from 49 (74%) in Week 4. 6.2 per carry and an 11-yard score on a 1-play drive after a Seattle fumble, but the total opportunity count fell from 20 to 14.
George Kittle caught 5 of 6 targets for 24 yards (23.3% adjusted on 7 true targets, from 20.0%); the seventh was a 5-yard catch erased by Cooks’ offensive pass interference. Snap share: 55 (92%), from 60 (91%) in Week 4.
Next four matchups (SF): Wk6 vs WAS (Home, Monday 10/19, 8:15 PM) | Wk7 at ATL (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 BYE | Wk9 vs LV (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:05 PM).
Seattle Seahawks
Sell Emanuel Wilson
The 49ers and Seahawks combined for seven giveaways in Week 5, four by the Seahawks and three by the 49ers, the most in any NFL game this season.
Sam Darnold was sacked 5 times for 33 yards and threw two interceptions
Emanuel Wilson had 22 of the backs’ 30 opportunities (73.3%, from 75.8% of 33) and George Holani 8 (26.7%). Wilson carried 20 times for 61 yards (3.1), scored from 2 yards, caught 2 of 2 for 11 yards, and lost a fumble; Holani carried 4 times for 7 yards, caught all 4 targets (all on third down) for 24, and lost the fumble that became a 49ers’ defensive touchdown.
Wilson handled 9 of the 10 second-half carries and the goal-line touchdown with the lead-back usage with Jadarian Price and Zach Charbonnet out, though a 59% snap share unchanged from Week 4 is not a complete bell-cow role. A 3.1 average, the fumble, and two targets are the red flags.
Wilson has been propped up by volume, not efficiency, suggesting his role/production can only decrease as the season wanes (and Seattle gets back other RBs). Wilson’s fantasy value is on expired time. If you can package him to a manager in desperate need of an RB – I’d make the move.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 5 of 8 targets for 102 yards and a 16-yard touchdown (26.7% adjusted, from 27.3%). Snap share: 53 (84%), down from 53 (88%) in Week 4. JSN was getting his ankle worked on after taking a weird hit, but he missed little time, though he did drop a critical third-down pass in the fourth quarter.
A.J. Barner caught 3 of 5 for 20 (16.7%, from 13.6%); 60 snaps (95%), from 54 (90%) in Week 4. Also hit a season high in route participation at 88%.
Rashid Shaheed caught 2 of 4 targets for 23 yards (16.7% adjusted on 5 true targets, from 13.6%), including a 22-yard catch at Q4 9:36; snap share: 29 (46%), from 36 (60%) in Week 4
Zach Charbonnet (knee) won’t be activated from the reserve/PUP list ahead of Thursday’s game versus the Broncos (TNF). It’s not part of the plan – but clearly Charbonnet is close to returning. Add him if he is still floating out there on the waiver wire.
Next four matchups (SEA): Wk6 at DEN (Road, Thursday 10/15, 8:15 PM) | Wk7 vs KC (Home, Sunday 10/25, 8:20 PM) | Wk8 vs CHI (Home, Monday 11/2, 8:15 PM) | Wk9 vs ARZ (Home, Sunday 11/8, 4:25 PM).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Bucky Irving
Tampa Bay won on the ground and by not turning the ball over: 39 carries for 241 yards (6.2 per carry), 39:21 of possession to 20:39, and zero giveaways against Dallas’ three, even though Dallas averaged more per play (6.7 to 6.4) and threw on 76% of its snaps. The game turned on the first two snaps of the second half, an 86-yard burst (a 72-yard Bucky Irving run, then a 14-yard Emeka Egbuka end-around touchdown) that flipped a 10-7 halftime deficit into 17 unanswered Tampa Bay points.
The margin could have been wider: Tampa Bay was flagged 14 times (10 on offense, four holdings that erased plays) for 92 yards, kicked only a field goal after recovering a kickoff-return fumble at the Dallas 37, and was stopped on 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 1, which let Dallas drive 99 yards to make it 24-16 with 5:26 left.
Jalon Daniels threw only 25 passes, and 64 of his 189 passing yards came on one deep throw to Tez Johnson. The rookie QB went 19-of-25 for 189 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions and ran 7 times for 23 yards (five scrambles for 25 yards and two kneel-downs).
The target tree re-concentrated on Egbuka. His adjusted share jumped to 35.7% from 17.9% while Chris Godwin fell to 10.7% from 25.0% and Cade Otton to 17.9% from 21.4%.
Egbuka caught 6 of 9 targets for 38 yards (35.7% adjusted share, 10 true targets counting a pass-interference-erased one) and added the 14-yard end-around touchdown. His snap share dipped to 89% from 94%, but he had two red-zone targets, one a catch tackled at the 1-yard line.
Per Next Gen Stats: In Jalon Daniels’ two games as the starter in Tampa Bay, he has thrown to Egbuka the most; he has 13 targets (25.5% share) and a 45.7% air yards share, a mark that would rank fourth in the league over the full season. He is fourth on the team in yards in that span, so his upside is higher in PPR leagues.
Godwin caught all 3 of his targets for 37 yards (10.7% adjusted share), all in the first half, and had no targets after halftime. His snap share held at 88% (89% in Week 4).
Irving carried 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown and caught 2 of 3 targets for 10 yards and a second score (10.7% adjusted target share). His snap share slipped to 54% from 59%, but he had 7 red-zone carries for 24 yards and a touchdown, including a carry tackled at the 1. The 72-yarder was 44% of his yards.
The third-year RB seized 24 of the three backs’ 37 carries-plus-targets (64.9%), on 39 of the backs’ 72 combined snaps (54%).
The goal line was still a shared committee. Irving scored from the 1, but Sean Tucker took the 4th-and-1 at the Dallas 1 and was stopped.
Kenny Gainwell carried 4 times for 18 yards and caught 3 of 4 targets for 10 yards (14.3% adjusted share) on 36% of the snaps, down from 43%, with no red-zone carries and three second-half targets worth -5 yards. Gainwell led the backfield in targets and routes run.
Tucker carried 5 times for 18 yards (6 for 22 true) on 10% of the snaps, up from 5%, with the 3rd-and-1 conversion and the 4th-and-1 stop at the goal line.
The committee approach has not completely gone away in the Bucs’ backfield, so there’s still a case to sell high on Irving after a monster Thursday night performance versus a bad Dallas defense. Tougher matchup next week versus the Steelers.
Cade Otton caught 3 of 4 targets for 25 yards (17.9% adjusted share, counting a holding-erased incompletion) on 92% of the snaps, down from 95%.
Next four matchups (TB): Wk6 vs PIT (Home, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 at CAR (Road, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 vs ATL (Home, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 at CHI (Road, Sunday Night 11/8, 8:20 PM).
Tennessee Titans
Add Wan’Dale Robinson
Tony Pollard had 55.6% of the backs’ opportunities (76.9% in Week 4) with one red-zone carry; Tennessee reached the red zone once and scored a field goal after two incompletions from the Houston 12.
Pollard carried 14 times for 52 yards (3.7 per carry), with one target (the interception) and one red-zone carry for +1. Snap share: 30 (48%), from 34 (53%) in Week 4.
But Tyjae Spears got more snaps and more receiving work.
Spears caught all 9 of his targets for 28 yards (61 true, counting a nullified 35-yard gain) and carried twice for 0 yards, losing a fumble. Snap share: 34 (54%), from 23 (36%) in Week 4.
The backfield continues to operate as the status quo, although there is a real chance Pollard gets dealt before the November 10th trade deadline.
Carnell Tate caught just 1 of 5 official targets (7 true) for 6 yards (38 yards, 2 catches true), 17.5% adjusted share, down from 38.2%. Snap share: 48 (76%), from 54 (84%) in Week 4. The 13-target volume of Week 4 did not repeat. He had a tougher matchup than last week. Just hold steady.
Wan’Dale Robinson caught 6 of 7 targets for 53 yards (17.5% adjusted share, up from 14.7%), with all five second-half targets caught. Snap share: 47 (75%), from 43 (67%) in Week 4. Might be worth a sneaky add given how bad the Colts’ defense has performed against slot WRs this season.
Gunnar Helm (TE) had one official target (2 true) and a nullified 9-yard catch (5.0% adjusted share, up from 2.9%).
Holding penalties hid the production: Tate’s 32-yard catch, Helm’s 9-yard catch, and 33 of Spears’ 35 yards were erased, so Ward’s true line is 25-of-40 for 244 rather than 23-of-36 for 170 yards.
DB Kevin Winston (quadriceps) will undergo an MRI, Terry McCormick of TitanInsider.com reports. CB Cor’Dale Flott (chest) was ruled out for the remainder of Sunday’s game against the Texans.
Next four matchups (TEN): Wk6 at IND (Road, Sunday 10/18, 1:00 PM) | Wk7 vs CLV (Home, Sunday 10/25, 1:00 PM) | Wk8 at CIN (Road, Sunday 11/1, 1:00 PM) | Wk9 BYE.
Washington Commanders
Sell Terry McLaurin & Jayden Daniels & Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Jayden Daniels returned after missing Weeks 3 and 4 and took all 62 snaps: 17-of-25 for 199 yards with no touchdown or interception, and whopping 9 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns (73 yards on three second-half carries), sacked five times for 23 yards. Washington was 0-for-1 in the red zone and added no points after Daniels’ Q4 11:05 touchdown and two-point pass.
Daniels dazzled as a rusher in Week 5, but I wonder how long that will last. The Commanders play the 49ers next…who have a linebacker named Fred Warner that can spy on an opposing mobile quarterback. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game to QBs: Warner impact.
This screams sell-high for the dual-threat QB. Older injured WRs. Bad offensive line.
If the Commanders’ season goes down the toilet with another poor performance this week (I know they tied in Week 5, but it feels closer to a loss) …. I have to imagine they might pull the plug sooner rather than later? Washington HC Dan Quinn might not make it to the Week 7 bye week.
We also got a report from Adam Schefter that some NFL doctors reportedly believe another dislocation could occur if Daniels continues playing. High risk for re-injury. Not if, but when.
With Stefon Diggs out and Terry McLaurin limited by a hamstring injury, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo led the target tree at 26.9% adjusted (10.0% in Week 4) on 7 true targets, Treylon Burks had 19.2% (7.5%) with both catches coming in overtime, Terry McLaurin 15.4% (28.1% in Week 3), Antonio Williams 11.5% (3 catches for 31 yards, 22.5%) and Dyami Brown 7.7% (10.0%), on 26 adjusted attempts (25 official). Williams led the Commanders in routes run (93%).
Okonkwo caught 4 of 6 (7 true) for 60 yards. Snap share: 44 (71%), from 37 (58%). Big benefactor without Diggs – all four catches came before halftime. The Commanders’ prized free agent acquisition ran a route on a season-high 76% of routes.
McLaurin caught all 4 targets for 62 yards (15.4%, from 28.1%); snap share 36 (58%), from 52 (75%) in Week 3. TMC also caught the two-point conversion. Remains a sell based on his age and lack of certified alpha No. 1 WR status, especially with this lingering hamstring injury.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt had 11 of the backs’ 23 opportunities (47.8%, from 54.2%) on 22 snaps (35%); Rachaad White had 8 (34.8%) on 37 snaps (60%) and Austin Ekeler 4 (17.4%) on 6 (10%). Croskey-Merritt’s 33- and 22-yard runs were 55 of his 82 yards; no back had a red-zone touch other than Ekeler’s two carries for −1 (total of 3 carries for -1 yards).
JCM carried 11 times for 82 yards and a 33-yard touchdown with no target. Snap share: 22 (35%), from 29 (45%) in Week 4. 9 of his 11 carries gained 27 yards, and he had no target and no red-zone touch. Bill ripped off the big TD run…but otherwise it was a lot of empty-calorie touches that don’t help us for fantasy purposes. I’d sell high before the 49ers and bye week up next.
White led the backs in snaps by 15, but his 8 opportunities and 2.6 yards per carry leave a lot to be desired.
Washington’s run game was explosive and its pass game short: 202 rushing yards (6.7 per carry) and only 25 attempts, 4-for-12 on third down, no turnovers.
I think there’s a case to be made to sell “high” on all of these Commanders pieces…given that Quinn is very much on the hot seat.
Next four matchups (WAS): Wk6 at SF (Road, Monday 10/19, 8:15 PM ESPN) | Wk7 BYE | Wk8 vs PHI (Home, Sunday 11/1, 8:20 PM NBC) | Wk9 vs LAR (Home, Sunday 11/8, 1:00 PM FOX).
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