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Monday, 19 October 2026

Fantasy Football Heat Index: Buy or Sell Surprise Performances

Fantasy Football Heat Index: Buy or Sell Surprise Performances

Every Monday of the NFL regular season, we look at weekend breakout performances and analyze their potential for sustained fantasy football success. We will rank these performances from 1-5 based on whether we believe they are one-time or long-term options for your fantasy teams.

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Fantasy Football Heat Index: Week 6

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)

Stats:

  • 24-of-34 for 312 Passing Yards
  • 3 Passing Touchdowns
  • 1 Interception
  • 1 Rushing Attempt
  • 5 Rushing Yards

Position Rank (pre-MNF): QB3 (24 fantasy points)

Analysis: After a shaky start to his fourth NFL season, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has looked like a different player over the past three weeks. Stroud averaged 15.05 fantasy points in the first three weeks but has now scored 20+ points in three consecutive contests. He finished as the QB5, QB13 and QB3 (pre-MNF) over that span.

Looking ahead, there is reason to believe Stroud’s hot streak can continue. Stroud’s top target Nico Collins recently returned to full health, and the team acquired former No. 4 overall draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr. just over a week ago. While it may take Harrison time to get up to speed with the new offensive scheme, the team is hopeful the Ohio State connection with Stroud will elevate Houston’s offense to new heights.

Heat Index: 4

Running Back

Braelon Allen (RB – NYJ)

Stats:

  • 17 Rushing Attempts
  • 78 Rushing Yards
  • 2 Receptions
  • 26 Receiving Yards

Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB17 (11.4 fantasy points)

Analysis: With New York Jets starter Breece Hall missing another game with a right quadriceps injury, Braelon Allen continues to prove he’s one of the best backup running backs in the NFL. In New York’s 26-19 loss to the New England Patriots in Week 6, Allen turned 19 opportunities into 104 hard-fought yards.

Though he failed to find the end zone, Allen managed to score 11.4 fantasy points and is the current RB17 for the week. Hall is expected back soon, but Allen should be rostered in all formats. He’s one of the top handcuffs in the league and a locked-in RB2 until Hall returns to full health.

Heat Index: 3

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Wide Receiver

Germie Bernard (WR – PIT)

Stats:

  • 11 Receptions
  • 87 Receiving Yards
  • 1 Touchdown

Position Rank (pre-MNF): WR3 (20.2 fantasy points)

Analysis: After an uptick in usage in Week 5, Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Germie Bernard was a popular waiver wire target across redraft leagues this week. In Week 6, the rookie delivered the best performance of his young career, rewarding fantasy managers.

In Pittsburgh’s 26-19 overtime victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bernard finished with 11 receptions for 87 yards and his first career touchdown. He scored 20.2 half-PPR fantasy points and is the current WR3 for the week, trailing only Tre Tucker (24.2 points) and Malik Nabers (22.5 points).

Moving forward, Bernard is trending toward every-week FLEX appeal, especially as the Steelers embrace a pass-first offense. In his age-42 season, the ageless Aaron Rodgers is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game, including a whopping 49 in Sunday’s overtime victory. If that trend continues, Bernard’s hot streak should continue.

Heat Index: 4

Tight End

Isaiah Likely (TE – NYJ)

Stats:

  • 6 Receptions
  • 99 Receiving Yards
  • 1 Touchdowns
  • 1 Two-Point Conversion

Position Rank (pre-MNF): TE1 (20.9 fantasy points)

Analysis: New York Giants tight end Isaiah Likely had another standout performance in the team’s 34-27 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 6. The offseason acquisition finished with 6 receptions, 99 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. He also added a two-point conversion. Likely scored 20.9 fantasy points and is the current TE1 for the week.

Likely has seen double-digit targets in three straight games and has three separate 20-point games this season while catching passes from Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy. At this point, Likely is a must-start in all fantasy football formats. He has shown the ability to produce no matter who is under center.

Heat Index: 5

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