Welcome, NFL DFS degenerates, to Week 7 and a whole new slate to dig through. Injuries, bye weeks and overseas games all play a part in how we dissect the Sunday main slate. This week has all of those things, and even more reasons to dig for potential value as we build our rosters.
This weekly article isn’t meant to be a roster builder, but rather a value sifter for lineup pieces that offer upside relative to their salaries. This week we have a 10-game slate to decipher, so let’s get into it.
NFL DFS Values & Picks: Week 7
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) vs. NYG | $5,700 (DraftKings)
Over the last three weeks, C.J. Stroud has finished as the QB5, QB13 and QB3. On the season, he has one interception and nine passing touchdowns on 219 attempts, with a 65.3% completion rate. That rate jumps to 71.6% over the last three games. The supporting cast of wide receivers is improving, too. Tank Dell is slated to return. Marvin Harrison Jr. has joined the fray. Jaylin Noel is coming on with some useful outings. Stroud has played some of the best football of his career, and his weapons are growing.
This week, the Texans host the nearly hapless Giants. J.J. McCarthy gets the start. The ground game was a complete farce last week in an ugly rotation. Their defense is favorable for fantasy production, allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. On average, they allow 198.7 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game. Only one quarterback (Jayden Daniels) has failed to throw a touchdown against them, but he scored two on the ground. Of the other five, only Cam Ward failed to throw two or more touchdowns against them.
This game features a 42.5 over/under. The stage is set for another good game for Stroud, with a salary that lets you stack and plug in a couple of top-tier weapons. You can use Stroud in both cash and GPP contests this slate. His current projected rostership is sub-10 %, making GPPs a little more attractive.
Geno Smith (QB – NYJ) vs. MIA | $6,900 (FanDuel)
Geno Smith appeared in this article in Week 3, when he finished QB3 overall — his only QB1 finish of the season. Overall, he is the QB24 in fantasy points per game. Smith has only one game with multiple passing touchdowns (Week 3) and only two games with 250+ passing yards. While those stats may not inspire confidence, Smith can be a value play in the right situation.
The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t been as bad as their record suggests; however, they still allow plenty of production to opposing quarterbacks — eighth-most fantasy points to the position. On average, they surrender 226.2 passing yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns per contest. Only Kyler Murray failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them.
Smith has a respectable pass-catching group: Garrett Wilson, the emerging Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq. This game features a modest 39.5 over/under with the Jets favored by 4.5. Smith is a GPP candidate with stacking options and a favorable salary for skill-position players. He is best utilized for players who put together multiple lineups.
Running Backs
Bucky Irving (RB – TB) @ CAR | $6,100 (DraftKings)
Bucky Irving is averaging 19.5 opportunities per game. With that volume, he is the RB16 in PPR fantasy points per game. Those numbers would be more impressive with a couple more touchdowns. He only has two rushing touchdowns on 14 red-zone attempts. For clarity, he’s spent the last several weeks playing with a backup quarterback who likes to run, which may have reduced his higher-value rushing attempts. The volume is encouraging and suggests positive regression is likely.
The Panthers allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. On average, they allow 103.2 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. They also surrender 33.8 receiving yards per game to the position.
With Baker Mayfield expected back under center, Irving could see more value touches. He could also see a slight uptick in volume with Emeka Egbuka ruled out as he recovers from a concussion.
The Panthers’ offense has been humming. This game features a 44.5 over/under with an implied team total of 20.75 points for the Buccaneers. Based on salary, Irving is a value play with volume and potential regression. He is an RB2 with upside and can be used in GPP contests.
Tyler Allgeier (RB – ARI) vs. DEN | $5,700 (FanDuel)
Admittedly, Tyler Allgeier didn’t have the role most of us expected last week. The fantasy community, analysts included, expected something resembling a workhorse role. Instead, well… one could say that Allgeier got Allgeier’ed by Bam Knight. They split carries and red-zone opportunities, diminishing the value of those who had bet on Allgeier. His 19 touches totaled 48 scoreless yards and a disappointing 2.1 yards per carry.
This week, the Cardinals host the Broncos in a game that features a 43.5 over/under. The Broncos allow the sixth-most fantasy points per contest. On average, they allow 107.8 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing touchdowns per game.
There are definitely some nerves about selecting Allgeier in a main-slate lineup. However, that will lower his rostership, making him a viable FLEX option in GPP contests this week. The matchup is favorable, and if Allgeier finds rhythm in his usage, he could flirt with low-end RB2 production.
Wide Receivers
Denzel Boston (WR – CLE) @ TEN | $5,400 (DraftKings)
Rookie wide receiver Denzel Boston has played well to start his career. He is currently the WR23 in fantasy points per game and is averaging 1.8 yards per route run and a league-leading 20.3 yards per reception. Boston has scored fewer than 10 PPR points just twice this season and has notched three touchdowns. He is currently one target behind fellow rookie and team leader KC Concepcion. He also leads the Browns in receiving yards.
This week, the Browns travel to Tennessee to face the Titans. Though much stiffer against the run, the Titans allow the 10th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. On average, they surrender 175.3 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving touchdowns per game.
This game features a 37.5 over/under with the Browns favored by 2.5 points. Though not expected to be a high-scoring affair, Boston could hit big on one of his long targets. He is an upside FLEX play for multiple lineup players in GPP contests.
Matthew Golden (WR – GB) @ DET | $6,700 (FanDuel)
Matthew Golden has truly emerged in his second season after being considered a bust following his rookie campaign. He has finished as a WR1 in three of his six games, and a WR2 in another. He is currently the WR11 in fantasy points per game and ranks sixth at the position in receiving yards.
The Packers travel to Detroit to face off against the potent Lions offense. Unfortunately for the Lions, their defense is just as bad as their offense is good. They allow the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. On average, they give up 194.8 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown per game.
This game features a 53.5 over/under, representing the highest on the slate. Game-stacking is viable in cash games to get pieces of both offenses into lineups. Christian Watson ($7,400) is also an excellent play; Golden gets the nod simply because of the $700 discount. Both receivers offer high-floor, high-ceiling play in a shootout-potential matchup.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee (TE – LAR) @ LV | $3,500 (DraftKings)
Yes, Tyler Higbee was featured last week, and it didn’t pan out. He finished with 22 scoreless yards, a fumble and a TE-who-cares weekly finish. So that didn’t work out. Why trot him out there again? Upside versus salary in a positive game script — that’s why. As a refresher, in Weeks 3-5, Higbee finished as the TE7, TE15 and TE10, respectively.
This week, the Rams face the surprisingly competitive Raiders, who allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. They have allowed six receiving touchdowns this season and an average of 53.8 receiving yards per contest.
This game has a 48.5 over/under, and both offenses can score. With Puka Nacua a game-time decision and Davante Adams on injured reserve (IR), Higbee could see an expanded role again. For $3,500, the upside far outweighs the salary. Higbee is a GPP contest play for this slate.
Evan Engram (TE – DEN) @ ARI | $5,000 (FanDuel)
Transparency warning: This one will have some narrative and speculation baked in, rather than the usual stat-driven approach. Bear with me; we will get there. I don’t think anyone woke up this morning with a burning desire to talk about Evan Engram in direct relation to helping a fantasy lineup win.
So here are the brass tacks: Engram has been as disappointing as Bo Nix has made him. Hopefully, that makes sense. Back in Week 1, Engram finished as the TE8 overall. He flirted with a top-12 finish again in Week 5 (TE17). Otherwise, he has been off the fantasy radar. Mainly because of Nix, who hasn’t played like a competent quarterback this season.
The overall matchup for the offense is enticing. The Cardinals allow the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends. On average, they give up 69.3 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the position. They have allowed a tight end to score in each of their last three games. This game features a 43.5 over/under. All Engram needs to have a week that outperforms his cost is decent play from Nix. Because of the risk, Engram is a naked play for GPP contests and works best in multiple lineup builds.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Bluesky @John-Hesterman or Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
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